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Agenda Bill 4.C-Attch2 06/07/2004
Attachment 2 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study 40 0 retaluma, California 0 6-�' e't -b' m a- A 4101 A Av%,Bw Prepared for the City of Petaluma By Thomas Consultants Inc. r Y- burTt v il le 'A of" "I '4) TABLE OF CONTENTS � SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION ---------------- 1 1.1 PROGRAM OBJECTIVES------------------------------- 1 1.2 KEY STUDY CONSIDERATIONS---------------------- 2 1.3 STUDY PROCESS--------------------------------------- 3 SECTION 2 RETAIL LAND USE POLICIES & ISSUES------ 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION-=--=-=--------------------------------- 4 2.2 PLANNING SUBAREAS-------------------------------- 4 2.3 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT OR'REDEV.ELOP-MENT POTENTIAL- 4 SECTION 3 PETALUMA RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW------ 9 3.1 INTRODUCTION ------- -------- ------=------- =---------- 9 3.2 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES-------------------------------- 9 3.3 PETALUMA RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE---------------- 10 3.3.1 PROPOSED KEY RETAIL PROJECTS------------------- 12 3.4 CITY OF PETALUMA VOID ANALYSIS---------------- 12 SECTION 4 REGIONAL RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW------- 15 4.1 KEY CENTERS IN SONOMA COUNTY & NORTH MAIN COUNTY ------------- =----------------- 15 4.1.1 ROHNERT PARK----------------------------------------- 15 4.1.2 SANTA R OSA----------- -------------------------------- 19 4.1.3 NOVATO/SAN RAFAEL-------------------------------- 19 4.1 .4 CORDE MADERA ---------------------------------------- 23 4.2 SONOMA/MARIN COUNTY VOID ANALYSIS------ 23 4.3 RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITIES ----------------- 25 SECTION 5 NORTH AMERICAN RETAIL TRENDS--------------- 34 5.1 PROJECT ANALOGUE EXAMPLES-------------------- 34 5.2 KEY COMMON ELEMENTS---------------------------- 34 5.3 MIXED -USE CENTERS----------------------------------- 37 5.4 LIFESTYLE CENTERS------------------------------------- 38 5.5 MAIN. STREET PRECINCTS------------------------------ 39 5.6 HYBRID CENTERS --------------------------------------- 40 5.7 POLARIZED RETAIL CENTERS-------------------------- 41 IN5.8 STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING ------------------------- 42 5.9 ENTERTAINMENT THEMED RETAILING -------------- 42 SECTION 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7.1 6.7.2 6.7.3 6.7.4 6.7.5 6.8 6.9 SECTION 7 _7.1 7.2 CONSUMER SURVEY RESEARCH RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ----------------------------- CONSUMER RESEARCH FINDINGS ------------------- ---- RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ---- PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER PREFERENCES ----------------------------------------------- PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTER--------- CONSUMERPERCEPTIONS OF PETALUMA'S RETAIL -- CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR IMPROVEMENTS, TO PETALUMA'S RETAIL --- -------------=----------------- STORES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO' PETALUMA ----- m --------------------- m ----------- TOP DESIRED RETAIL STORE ADDITIONS---------------: TOP DESIRED SERVICE ADDITIONS --------------------- TOP DESIRED LEISURE ADDITIONS ----------------------- IMPROVEMENTS TO INCREASE VISITS: ---------------- CONSUMER PREFERENCES: DESIRED RETAIL LOCATION, FORMATS AND PRICE POINTS------------ RETAILSALE'_S RETENTION & LEAKAGE=---------------- TRADE AREA RETAIL DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT ---------------- TRADE AREA DELINEATION- ---------- ------- TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS-- 44 44 46 46 49 50 51 52 52 52 53 53 53 54 55 56 56 57 SECTION 8 TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROFILE---- 61 8.1 PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS--------------- 61 8.2 AGGREGATE RETAIL EXPENDITURE--------------------- 62 8.3 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES OF BUSINESS------------ 64 SECTION 9 RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE ANALYSIS---------------- 67 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) SECTION 10 RETAIL POSITIONING RECOMMENDATIONS & STRATEGIES. 75 10.1 MARKET SHARE/CAPTURE RATE METHODOLOGY------ 75 10.2 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY-------------- 75 10.3 POSITIONING OF PETALUMA'S RETAIL INDIVIDUAL. RETAIL C__CUSTERS=----==-------------------------------------- 75 10.4 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES-------------------------------- 81 10.5 REDEVELOPED *GOLDEN EAGLE & STATION SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES---------------- 83 10.6 KENILWORTHA FAIRGROUNDS SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES-------------------------------- 85 10.7 PETALUMA, VILLAGE FACTORY OUTLETS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES---=------------------ 87 10.8 REDWOOD CENTER/KOHL'S: RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGIES-------------------------=-------- 89 10.9 DSL/RANTER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGIES--- 91 10.11 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH '& SOUTH) : RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES- ---- =-------- ------------ 9.3 10..12 WASHINGTON SQUARE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES=------------=------ =------------------------------- 95 10.13 PETALUMA GATEWAY: RETAIL AND STRATEGIES--------------------------------------------- 97 10.14 OSH/ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES----------------------------- 99 10.15 YARDBIRDS, PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES ----------------- --------------- ----------- =------- 1 0 1 10.16 OTHER AREAS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES--- 103 SECTION 11 MEGA BOX RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS 104 SECTION 12' CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS---------- 106 12.1 CONSUMER SURVEY ------------- =---------------------------- 106 1 2.2L RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE=-------------------------------------- 108 12.3 REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION ------- =------------------- 109 12.4 CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS-------------------- 109 12.5 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL--------------------------------- 109 12.6 DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE------------------ 110 12.7 RETAIL TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES-------------------------- 1 1 2 1 2.8 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY-------------- 1 1 2 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June h n _IS.I f- TABLES TABLE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUBAREA --------------------- =--=--------------------------- 5 TABLE 2.2 RETAIL SUITABILITY EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT & REDEVELOPMENT SITES------------- 8 TABLE 3.1 MAJOR PETALUMA RETAIL CENTERS-------------------- 11 TABLE 3.2 RETAIL VOID/O.PPORTUNITY ANALYSIS - CITY OFPETALUMA--------------------------------------------- 13 TABLE 4.1 NORTH REGION RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE (SONOMA COUNTY)-----------------------------------=-- 17 TABLE 4.2 SOUTHERN RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE------------------- 21 TABLE 4.3, RETAIL/VOID OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS - CITY OF PETALUMA ----------------------------------------------------- 24 TABLE 4.4 RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX------------- 27 TABLE 7.1 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS BY SUB -AREA---------- 58, TABLE 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY=-------------- 59 TABLE 8.1 PER CAPITA RETAIL/LEISURE EXPENDITURE, 2003----- 61 TABLE 8.2 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 20Q3-2013------------------------ 62 TABLE 8.3 SONOMA COUNTY EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS-------- 64 TABLE 8.4 SONOMA COUNTY PER CAPITA TOURIST SPENDING----------------------------------------------------- 65 TABLE 9.1 AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES----------------------------- 66 TABLE 9.2 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA CIRCULATION - PTA MARKET----------------------------- 71 TABLE 9.3 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA CIRCULATION - STA MARKET----------------------------- 72 TABLE 10.1 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX -ALLOCATION BY RETAIL CLUSTER--------------------------------------------- 75 TABLE 10.2 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES-------- 80 r 1 TABLE 10.3 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 80 TABLE 10.4 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 82 TABLE 10.5 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 82 TABLE 10.6 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 84 TABLE 10.7 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 84 TABLE 10.8 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 86 TABLE 10.9 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA----=-=-- 86 TABLE 10.10 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 88 TABLE 10.11 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 88 TABLE 10.12 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 90 TABLE 10.13 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA---.----- 90 TABLE 10.14 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 92 - TABLE 10.15 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 92 TABLE 10.16 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 94 TABLE 10.17 RECOMMENDED RETAIL.MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 94 TABLE 10.18 PROJECTED SALES ,& TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 96 TABLE 10.19 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 96 TABLE 10.20 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 98 TABLE 10.21 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 98 TABLE 10.22 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 100 TABLE 10.23 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 100 TABLE 10.24 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES------ 102 TABLE 10.25 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-------- 102 TABLE 11.1 MEGA BOX RETAILER SCENARIOS--------------------- 104 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 �a LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 STUDY PROCESS--------------------------=------------- 3 FIGURE 2:1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB -AREA ------------------------------------------------ 6 FIGURE 2.2 CITY OF PETALUMA RETAIL CLUSTERS: POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND REDEVELOPMENT SITES-------------------------------- 7 FIGURE'3.1 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES-------------------------------- 10 FIGURE 4.1 NEIGHBOURING COMMUNITIES WITH ESTABLISHED, RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE------------- 16 FIGURE 4:2 ROHNERT PARK MAJOR- RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE --------------- -------------------------- 18 FIGUREA.3 SANTA ROSA MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE ------------------------------------- 20 FIGURE 4.4 NOVATO/SAN RAFAEL MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE--------------------------------------- 22 FIGURE 5.1 TRENDS & DISTINCTIVE QUALITIES OF SUCCESSFUL RETAIL PROJECTS ------- =--------------- 35 FIGURE ,5.2 NORTH AMERICA TRENDS RETAIL FORMAT PROFILES-------------------------------------------------- 36 FIGURE 6.1 CITY RESPONDENT RESIDES--------------------------- 44 FIGURE 6.2 CONSUMER SUR-VEY RESPONDENTS RESIDENTIAL ADDRESS---------------------------------- 45 FIGURE 6:3 HOUSEHOLD SIZE-------------------------------------- 46 FIGURE 6.4 NUMBER IN HOUSEHOLD< 19 YEARS OLD ------- 47 FIGURE 6.5 AGE OF RESPONDENT----=--------------==----=------- 47' FIGURE6.6 HOUSEHOLD YEARLY INCOME------------------------ 47 FIGURE6.7 RESPONDENT ETHNIC ORIGIN ----------------- -------- 48 FIGURE 6.8 RESPONDENT GENDER--------------------------------- 48 FIGURE 6.9 TOP 10 REASONS SHOPS AT PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER===-=-------------- 49 FIGURE 6.10 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS----- 49 FIGURE 6.11. 'TOP 5 PRIMARY'CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTERS --- -------- ----------------- -------- ------ -------- 50 FIGURE 6:12 TOP 1.0 REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTER--=--------------- 50 FIGURE 6.13 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN DISLIKES--------------------------------------------------- 51 FIGURE 6.14 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN LIKES------ 51 FIGURE 6.15 TOP STORES OR 'SERVICES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA---------------------- 52 FIGURE 6.16, IMPORT ANCERATINGS FOR -STORES ADDED TO PETALUMA-------------------------------------------- 52 FIGURE 6..17 IMPORTANCE RATING FOR SERVICES ADDED TO PETALUMA ---=------------- ----------------- 53 FIGURE 6.18 IMPORTANCE RATINGS FOR RESTAURANTS ENTERTAINMENT ADDED TO PETALUMA------------- 53 FIGURE 6.19 TOP CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA----------- 53 FIGURE 6.20 LOCATION PREFERENCES OF NEW STORES IN PETALUMA-' FIGURE 6.21 STORE,FORMAT PREFERENCE'OF NEW STORES SERVICES IN. PETALUMA===-=----------------- 54 FIGURE 6.22 PRICE- POINT PREFERENCE OF NEW STORES SERVICES'IN PETALUMA------.------- ----------------- 54 FIGURE-6.23 % OF'SPENDING MADE OUTSIDE PETALUMA---- 55 Petaluma Leakage,8k Sustainable.Retail Strategy Study, Jun 004 I. FIGURE 7.1 TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES--------------------------- 56 FIGURE 10.6 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 83 FIGURE 7.2 DRIVE TIME & 2003 POPULATION------------------ 57 FIGURE 10.7 SITE OVERVIEW -------------------------------------------- 83 FIGURE'7.3 POPULATION GROWTH----------------------------- 59 FIGURE 10.8 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 85 FIGURE 7.4. AVG. HOUSEHOLD INCOME------------------------ 60 FIGURE 10.9 SITE OVERVIEW ------------------------------------ -=------ 85 FIGURE 7.5 AVG. HOUSEHOLD SIZE------------------------------ 60 FIGURE 10.10 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 87 FIGURE8.1 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY EXPENDITURE FIGURE 10.11 SITE OVERVIEW ------------------- ------------------------- 87 CATEGORY--------------------------------------------- 63 FIGURE'8.2 AVERAGE DAILY WORKER EXPENDITURE---=._--=- 64 FIGURE 1,0.T2 PROJECTED SPACE& FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 89 FIGURE 8.3 TOURISM EXPENDITURE IN SONOMA FIGURE T0.13 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------------------------------- 89 COUNTY (20,01)-------------------------------------- 65 FIGURE 10.14 PROJECTED SPACE &.FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 91 FIGURE 8.4 POTENTIAL TARGET MARKET ($ MILLION)--------- 65 FIGURE 10.15 SITE.OVERVItW ------------------------ FIGURE 9.1 AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES, 2000--------------- 67 FIGURE 10.16 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 93 FIGURE 9.2 TAXABLE SALES PER CAPITA, 2000--------------- -- 67- FIGURE 10.17 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------------------------------- 93 FIGURE 9.3 RETAIL SALES & LEAKAGE FROM PTA, CITY OF PETALUMA, 2001--------------------------------- 6,9 FIGURE 1.0.18 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- - 95 FIGURE 9.4 RETAIL SALES FROM STA, CITY OF FIGURE 10.19 SITE OVERVIEW --------------------- ---------------- --=----- -9'5 PETALUMA, 200------------------------------------ --- 70 FIGURE 10.20 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 97 FIGURE 9.5 TOTAL LATENT FLOORS PACE .0PPO.RTUNITY---- 73 FIGURE 10.21 SITE OVERVIEW ------- =-=----------------------------- ------ 97 FIGURE 10.1 PETALUMA-- OPTIMAL,AGGREGATE RETAIL MIX--------------------------------------------- 76 FIGURE 10.22 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION--- 99 FIGURE 10.2 ALLOCATION OF FLOORPSACE OPPORTUNITY FIGURE 10.23 SITE OVERVIEW --------------------------------- ----------- . 99 BY RETAIL CLUSTER- --------------------------------- 77 FIGURE 10.24 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION-- 101 FIGURE 10.3 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL FIGURE 10.25 SITE OVERVIEW -------------------------------------------- 101 POSITIONING ------------------------------------------ 78 FIGURE 10.4 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE FIGURE 11.1 MEGA BOX RETAILERS------------------------------------ 103 ALLOCATION ------------------------------------------- 81 FIGURE 12.1 PETALUMA RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING--- 1 1 2 FIGURE 10.5 SITE OVERVIEW ---------------------------------------- 81 FIGURE 12.2 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES--------------------------------------- 1 1 3 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Recognizing, community perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., was commissioned by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study was toa assess and determine the missing pieces in Petaluma's retail offering., This purpose is accomplished by measuring the scope of `opportunity for .introducing such retail functions that will redirect; recapture and harness_ healthy retail sales in Petaluma: The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey to further gauge and quantify the magnitud_ e_ of retail Leakage and voids. Findings of the report are based on an evaluation of the current general level of Petaluma's economy and that of the surrounding Sonoma County and Marin County region at the time of study. These findings neither take into account nor make provisions for the effect of any sharp rise or decline in local or general economic conditions: Accordingly, the - report and recommendations are based on Thomas Consultants Inc.'s understanding of the status of the marketplace and of -respective competing retail centers, projects and facilities_ at the time of study preparation. Thomas Consultants Inc. does not' warrant that the identified recommended optimal retail mix and demand estimates will be achieved, but rather these.items were prepared conscientiously on the basis of information obtained during the course of the study and our experience in the planning and development or redevelopment of commercial real estate and planning projects. A regional examination was carried out in conjunction with discussions with local planning officials and real estate professionals. Reference material for this report was derived predominantly from the public and private sectors; government publications, taxable sales data and Thomas Consultants Inc. Additionally, the .Consumer Survey was performed :in July and August 2003, in orderto gather primary data regarding Petalum&s retail trade area spending patterns and' preferences. It. was not the intension of the is _study to address "Automotive Sales, Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," all of which are already performing well within Petaluma. Rather;, the study focuses on "Comparison" and "Convenience" retailing. As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither the name of Thomas Consultants Inc., nor the material submitted may be included in a prospectus or any printed material, offerings or presentations, without the expressed permission of Thomas Consultants Inc. The material may only be utilized -for the purpose of reference by the City of Petaluma. If should also be noted that all recommendations put forth by this study are for planning purposes only, to provide direction for the optimal and appropriate evolution of retail functions throughout Petaluma. Accordingly,, due to economic fluctuations, etc., Thomas Consultants Inc. does not warrant that any of the figures no in the study will materialize. Rather they are provided for guidance purposes. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page i • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Petaluma is a sophisticated retail market that currently lacks the diversity of retail offering that other communities of similar size and composition enjoy. Recognizing perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is to assess and determine the missing pieces in Petaluma's retail offering. Thi's purpose is accomplished by measuring the scope of opportunity for introducing such retail functions that will redirect and re -capture healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey, which was undertaken in July and August 2003 to further gauge and quantify the magnitude of current retail voids and the resultant leakage. This summary section outlines the extent of retail leakage from Petaluma. It then proceeds to define the proposed solution by describing the following key inputs: • Specific market voids that need to be filled. • Demographic profile that indicate the type of retail tenants that best fill these voids. • Expenditure potential available to attract these tenants. • Retail trends and opportunities that provide the foundation for successful retail development. • The application of these points to the City of Petaluma across each of its existing and potential retail clusters. ureanrs CONSUMER SURVEY To assess items such as the degree of retail sales outflow, consumer expenditure profile and consumer preferences, a detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during the period of July to August, 2003. The survey interviewed 400 people living within Petaluma and its surrounds. Highlights of the consumer survey results include: ➢ Only 43% of respondents identified shopping centers in Petaluma as their regular "Primary Shopping Destination". The alternative shopping destinations that are attracting local residents are shown in the accompanying graph. PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS Coddington Mall SR 7% Santa Rosa Plaza 7% Santa Rosa \, M arketplace �% \ Santa Rosa Town Center—, 5 Other Shopping No Primary Centers 8 "� 3 Village at Corte ` M adera 4% Town Center Corte Madera 0.3 / Northgate Mall_,,-" SR 4% ' Vintage Oaks N ,Downtown 2 % Novato 2% Petaluma Village Premium Outlets 13 Downtown Petaluma 9% Plaza North PT 12% %' '','cs`"• Washington Square PT swa Ex res P Y Plaza RP li 1 i _ ohnert Park Wal-Mart Plaza 5% RP 8% Average $ Expenditure Per Month $171.33 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page El The majority of respondents shop locally in Petaluma for their day-to-day Convenience needs (as opposed to Comparison shopping for. fashion, large ticket items and specialty good s). . Who le fo ods oods was as identified 9 ) ntified as the strongest convenience shopping destination as identified by -25%'of respondents. The next -strongest convenience centers were Downtown Petaluma and Washington Square. With regard to preferred retail formats and locations, Petalumans' reported the following: ➢ Preferred retail locations and formats include an even balance of preference to add new stores Downtown_ and close to Highway 101. ➢ "Streetfront Retail" and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred shopping 'formats. ➢ The respondent profile. suggests that a balanced variety of value, mid -ranged and upscale specialty stores is desired. Retail Sales Retention & Leakage The most significant question of the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that occurs either inside or outside of Petaluma. The.most significant leakage is occurring for the following categories ranging from 50% to 100% leakage • Entertainment 8 Movies • Electronics/Computers • _Home Furnishings, Appliances :.& Accessories • 'Clothing (Apparel) and, Footwear • Books,.Music (DVD's) & Media • Sporting Goods, Toys & Habbies • National Full Service Restaurants %of Spending Made Outside Petaluma 1 oo^r_ '�?'i�':�.z,�',�`.-^r1�"°'-�'�r�.*_=`s{';a.�5+_.ii���,>i`4�.�'t'�+':"'z;;f�+x":.';'�:._-'=-°2i�"..�., x•-x. �, _ •u; :' ^a ,u7 ssv'x ean- rc ] •H �N+, tr �i?7;�,i 90 % ue ,: _-u• 80 1 l %"2.'�� £;. _:•�s:. �.—;! .r;,2K'f"-..w^:i�-..: ., ..�ba.l'.n "�.a;..:�:�ide'' - 'f-�i �i.+.F°K��.�..£'Y,�.��.•."..• .'Y" ;��zS�.K,w., ,i f-,..`':`:`^„'`' •? rya-,q _ '._-r^ Kp'r-,'f"'rK x":,:•:- ,r•..:yr -a� �., ---- 70% _ .ri: .�v,.�'; _a. a._ _a -:4•v �r'�.. ,� r 3 .,,. ea',v ,•'t"'Jo� tiz�`,, :dz i y�,�,i' �; k, ' xx, t� 7� - 33 a p ^ws�•"' 't s�a'..a `C Y�'v¢ -F.� �.; +��,.,Y,•r:: ,�,�r5• � � . a7 50 % ":.Li•.a"- a t,"e`''.rs---+;ti:,,_L;•.:i;-�•34y:; " edwp,2 e ,t-Dt:m. .b ezl n rrr`,`! ,..•... { C� Zv +.�•�� i�;' ' '"iJ , ,?�'� ''�,f.�&r y `•. �r'�.'�.'??x_�rz-+, ��1��`�'*:'y.. �'e,-;=•ii - ;,:�.:..:�;.,• _ a? _— - ^:,?:,°t' a:'•.a' _ h<r`,-`:'" "- =' FN _yi k .GeT,S "ti _ ;�,,, - '::4i . 'C.:ae� f•x - '.`.xp:;� '�� ' +-�v' 't : �.. ti : '9 t�"i °,�`• i 10 % - 1 •.�. — .n, fir:; — - sx„. ;4S ";9'N. ; .. �,� '."-s. ' u.f — "`S ,"-�- 'a -o lY±. •:�s F ,{ :xa,= . '.a ;' �` - Gi a1 '•�,v xI#s . aT,.., « y ,_ «3c s err o% - — = — — — :.:?;� =� .-. _ . �r ._.- = � � • '_ _ +sit �'• i4eat 1O5 - - °� lb�aP°s�aJc eQ ee�av� of 0 J4 00 eo0 acSe o-� 9oe°a0el `2�o 0t\ a `r9 F�cC 0a.0 re G1pGP q5°\ee,eGfie e0 Se0 Crek G°° c�ec� GQo mod' �a`°o ��'e a\oca a The only Comparison Retail categories that are being retained within Petaluma include Specialty Retail and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma appears to be retaining between 60% to 75% of Convenience and Service Retail functions such as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified by respondents confirm the scope of retail voids and opportunities for Petaluma. Stores and services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: 0 'Movie Theatre & .O,ther Entertainment Venues ❑ Discount Dept. Store/Dept. Store 0 Home Electronics & Computers Store Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E2 • 0 • Next most desired stores to add are: ➢ Clothing(Apparel)/Footwear ➢ Books -9, Music (DVD's) & Media. ➢ Home Improvement & Garden, ➢ Specialty Retail, Entertainment/ Leisure ➢ Local & National Full Service Restaurants ➢ Casual,D,ining ➢ Specialty Food Grocery. RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE In. addition to the Consumer Survey, a detailed analysis was, made of taxable sales occurring within Petaluma. The. analysis indicates that Petaluma's taxable transactions reached $369 million in 2001, with the major sales categories of Other Retail Stores ($84.4 million), General Merchandise ($64 million) and Restaurants ($67 million). It should be noted that these figures do not include "Automotive Sales, Servicing, 'Recreation Vehicles or Fueling". Similarly, it should also be noted that most. Grocery sales are non-taxable and thus not recorded in the taxable sales data: ➢ The expenditure assessment indicates that Petaluma's PTA residents spent $369 million on the categories under study in 2001. However; only $172 million (470%) of these purchases were ,made in the City. By contrast, over $197 million (53%) of PTA, residents' expenditure was made outside of Petaluma in 2001. ➢ On almost all categories, the City is achieving a net sales outflow. ➢ Restaurants represent the largest expenditure category included in this analysis, and this category demonstrates a substantial sales outflow. ➢ The retail categories with the greatest retail sales leakage (and hence: opportunity) include Home Electronics, Home Furnishings, Cihema,and-Apparel. ➢ Specialty Retail is the only category to maintain a strong sales retention within the City. This likely indicates the effect of the influx of daytrippers.and tourists shopping in Downtown Petaluma's specialty stores rather than an indication of a complete specialty retail program within the city. $100.000,000 COMPARISON RETAIL SALES & _LEA_ 'K'AG_E', FROM $eo,000,00a . PRTMARYTRADE AREA(PTA) $80.000,000 - _ F $70,000.000 -. TOTAL —PTA COMP. POTENTIAL- -$369-MILLION 'EST TOTAL SAL62FROMi*T =,$ W,MILLION *ESTIMATED COMPARISON RET_AI_L LEAKAGE== SI97.MILLION - s5o,000,000 - k—CAPTUR"ATU=_47� k Io r t saes from PTA t! LEAKAGE RATE = 53-% ©�Avenarture wtent.ai $40.000.000 - - _ ® Est Leakage from PTA E30,000.000 - _ - $2o,000.6ao - — $10.000.000 A —A — A t $o a. QaR a+e i �ee5 may. acB''. °�,s-� 9c P a G is �ae9 Gaffs oa V Q d' 1P acep 0 16a a f� 4'A e. b e yc� aa� t y �e5ca e� 5 $250,000,000 00MPARISON RETAIL SALES FROM SECONDARY TRADE AREA (STA) r $200.000,000 - _ - TOTAL STA COMP. POTENTIAL =41.09 BILLION ESL TOTAL COMP. SALES FROM�STA = $74 MILLION $, 50,000 o00 ESTIMATED CAPTURE_ R,4TE�= 7:3% ` � © STA Expenditure Fbtenml ! $100.000,000 js Est Salesfrom STA - F $50,000.000 - M fl L. $o - PQQaF o°01a� FQJ\¢y P&yy `ache as a�� b�J� �a v�y °04 va`0y is i 5G aca 4, caU & PgQq °a lcc�� cyb ca cN�ac �c0 b d° °�c z `i .Eza Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E3 REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION A key component of stemming the retail sales leakage is to determine the current level of competition for retail spending in the area. Petaluma's neighboring communities possess more developed retail environments, which can be summarized as follows: ➢ Rohnert Park, north of Petaluma is most' comparable in, 'retail infrastructure. ,However, Rohnert Park has a stronger representation of boxwalue retailers (e.g. Target, Outdoor Pro.:Shop,'Office Depot, etc.). The value ,offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. ➢ Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail formats, effectively appealing to a broad market segment. Regional malls, power centers and box retail -oriented strip centers dominate the retail landscape. The variety of retail formats. accommodates a :multitude of national chain retailers, and reflects. a ''strong' ranking in all categories of the void 'analysis: The critical mass of branded/national retailers combined with value prices generates the 'strong destination, appeal for Santa Rosa. ➢ NovatolSon Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the exception -of the Electronics/Home Entertainment category. The majority of this retail _is focused in the Vintage Oaks retail center fronting Highway 101. ➢ Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of 'Lifestyle' oriented retailers. in a more pedestrian -oriented shopping environment. Specifically,. Corde. Madera's 'Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle -to -upper price points (e.g. Village at Corde Madera). This retail' offering and overall center profile is more comparable to the Upscale shopping centers in San Francisco. ➢ Although 'approximately 9%0 of retail sales made in the communities between Corde Madera and Santa Rosa occurred in Petaluma, per capita retail .sales are lowest in Petaluma for these communities. I" rxuu�rarrs: CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS In 2003., there are an estimated 1.14 million sq. ft.- of retail functions in Petaluma today, of which about 775,000 sq. ft. are in shopping centers; while the remainder are in Downtown and Streetfront retail areas. 0 Retail is sprawled, across Petaluma with no distinct focal point. ❑ Downtown Petaluma is dominated by antiques & local specialty, retail. ❑ Retail outside of Downtown is dominated by "Convenience" and "Strip" retail'. ❑ Overall; Petaluma has a limited offering of- National' Brand retailers and, restaurants. ❑ .Many ,of the few national tenants found in Petaluma occupy spaces at the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets that are hard to, see and difficult to _get to. ❑ Petaluma does not, have the: variety, of retail formats that areevolving' in other communities of .similar size and demographic profile. PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL In order to identify the optimal, strategy for stemming retail sales leakage: from Petaluma, the City's component retail clusters were identified, including undeveloped areas -that have potential for future commercial, development: The entire retail infrastructure was analyzed .simultaneously, to deter -mine the optimal function of each ,.cluster that would provide the most appropriate retail offering at the site ,as we'll as contribute the greatest synergy to the overall city.offering.., Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable. Retail Strategy Study, June 20Page E4 - • The retail cluster sites include: • Downtown Petaluma West • Golden Eagle & Station RDA Site • Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site • Petaluma Plazas. • Washington Square • DSL/Ranier Site Petaluma Village Factory Outlets Redwood Center An evaluation of "retail suitability" and attractiveness of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail was prepared. This evaluation considers 15 individual retail site criteria in equal weighting, to consider site exposure, location, configuration and adjacencies. Highlights of this analysis, suggest the following: • The 'Petaluma Plazas (85%) site rated as the .best overall site for retail potential followed by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84%) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle/Station RDA (40%o) and Washington Square (60%) ranked in the middle of range. • Downtown Petaluma West & the DSL/Ranier Site ranked in the lower half of the range. • The weakest site was the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47%) site. From a retail void analysis to identify retail functions and formats that are missing in Petaluma, the following retail opportunities are suggested for Petaluma: ➢ Large format general merchandise stores (e.g. Kohl's) ➢ Value apparel/footwear or discount department store (e.g. TJ Maxx, Old Navy,'DSW Footwear, etc.) ➢ Large format house & home retailer (e.g: Container Store, Pier One, Linens `N Things, etc.) ➢ Large format electronics/home entertainment (e.g.. Fr.y's Electronics, Circuit City, etc.) ➢ Lifestyle/branded retailers (e.g. J.Crew, Eddie Sauer, Talbott, American Eagle Outfitters, etc.) DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE Having established the extent of the retail leakage from Petaluma, as well as the existing infrastructure and existing voids in the marketplace, the specific opportunity for the City to pursue was further refined through demographic and expenditure analysis. Specifically, the detailed demographic and. spending habits of local residents were analyzed to determine the types of retail tenants that would garner the greatest appeal. When matching this "demand" information with the "supply" situation outlined in the void analysis, an optimal strategy is clearly defined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E5 Over 65,000 people reside within a 10-minute drive from Downtown Petaluma and nearly 387,000 people live within a half-hour _drive of Petaluma. Petaluma's retail trade area is comprised of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000 people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people. The total trade area is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual` rate of 0,97%, nearly identical to the national average: The PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.53% per annum. The, Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 1 1,000 new residents anticipated over the, next decade. Petaluma's demographic profile is highlighted as follows: ➢ Strong average household incomes of $75,000 or more. ➢ W01-educated adult population. ➢ -Larger'than average.representotion of 35 to 64 years olds. Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is estimated to be over $2:35 Billion. and is expected to increase to $2..68 Billion by 20136 The, -PTA represents $659 million (28%) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (729/6). Total expenditure is expected to grow at over 1.29% per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is Convenience, particularly Supermarket spending, which will grow at 1.,57% per annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenditure will grow from $974 million to $1..1 billion during this time period, whileexpenditure on Leisure is slated to grow from. $340 million to $382 million from 2003 to 2013. Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development. Per capita expenditure on retail and leisure is well above average in the PTA and. STA, at 129% and 140% the national. average. Within the PTA; the growing population base is anticipated to be bolstered by an influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. The STA is not slated. to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per capita expenditure, and thus represents a key market segment to entice to Petaluma. Additional sources of miscellaneous sales inflow include purchases made by the estimated 30,000 employees that work in Petaluma and the visitors whom pass through 'Sonoma County. Employees are, estimated to generate $48 million per year of retail and food/bevera:ge spending -during their working hours, :of which about half is from employees who do not live within Petaluma. Although detailed figures are, not available just for visitors to Petaluma,, visitors to overall Sonoma County and Wine Country generate, approximately $667. million per year in retail and food/beverage spending. These spending segments are seen to be supplementary to the base of local resident trade area expenditure. FIGURE 8.4 1 POTENTIAL TARGET MARKETS ($ MILLION) $667 $659 $24 ® PTA, Residents!, - E, STA Residentsi ®Workforce I i. ❑Touf1515 a 1 $1,696 t i • - Petaluma Leakage k Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2000 Page E6 • RETOTRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES The vision for the evolution of Petaluma's retail offering should also draw from the current "state of the art" in retail programming and design. The following retail formats and new generation retailer types are currently driving North Amer ixe -use i��nters ❑ Lifestyle & New Generation Retail Centers ❑ ' Main Street Retail & Downtowns ❑ Hybrid Centers (Value, Lifestyle & Convenience) ❑ PolarizedRetail Centers ❑ Strategic Repositioning of Existing Centers ❑ Entertainment Themed Retail Centers Common, elements of these retail formats include:. ➢ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. ➢ Exploiting and, celebrating the local, organic lifestyle. ➢ Establishing the community social gathering place. ➢ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. ➢ Culture, arts and education play a prominent role. ➢ Specialty food and .public markets are an attraction. ➢ Spaces are organized into a "Streetscape" setting:. ➢ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. ➢ New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. ➢ Investment in architectural & landscape features is intense Currently, the majority of these contemporary retail formats are not available ''in Petaluma, suggesting an opportunity to weave them into the retail fabric. %crxsut�anis. r PETALUhrIA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY A market share/capture rate methodology was utilized to project the optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. This methodology involves applying realistic market capture rates against the Primary and Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each retail category in each individual retail cluster. The market share analysis indicates that with, thecomplementary and optimal, retail positioning and mix recommended for each of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as_ 2:3T million sq: ft. of vibrant retail 'functions within Petaluma: If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sq, fi: is subtracted from this total demand estimate, the analysis indicates there i& an opportunl_ ity to add up to 1.17 million sq. ft. of new retail functions (.Comparison, Leisure and Convenience retail)'. This retail space could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per annum in retail sales for all of the Convenience, Comparison and Leisure categories. Of this amount, the .sales and mix of potential retail capture for Petaluma would be as follows: • $279.6 million/yr for Convenience Retail • $391.4 million/yr:on Comparison Retail • $1,04.1 million/yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants. Considering the current estimated Comparison & .Leisure Retail capture is approximately $246 million/yr, the above figures suggest an almost $250 million lift in. Comparison Retail and Leisure sales; 'in .other words a doubling. This would result in an additional $2.5 million tax revenues annually, as well as the generation of 3,084 total direct new jobs in the City. The accompanying two Figures illustrate the recommended optimal positioning and geographic location for each retail cluster in Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E7 POSITIONING STRATEGY DOWNTOWNtOMMERCIAL' RETAIN AND'ENHANCE FOOD AND'BEVER'AGE, SPECIALTY RETAIL AND ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USE' COMMERCIAL' REDEVELOP WITH MIXED -USE STREET -ORIENTED, LIFESTYLE RETAIL ATGRADE RESIDENTIAL oWOTHERF"; ABOVE,.TO FRAME,AND�BALANCE EAST SIDE OF RIVER AS PART OF DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY%TOURIST COMMERCIAL• ASSEMBLE AND- DEVELOP AS REGIONAL— RGER FORMAT RETAIL NODE TO;INT.RODUCE MISSING RETAILERS OF REGIC HIGHWAY/COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE EXISTING PETALUMA PLAZA AND ,WASHINGTON SQUARE PROOPERTIES WITH ADDITIONAL CRU, BABY BOX AND' RESTAURANTS AND.INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL.APPAREL. RETAILER WI,T,H;ADJACENT REL•ATED;CRU'S COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE CONVENIENCE AND SERVICES,ANDINCORPORATE HEALTH AND:WELLNESS PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING LAND' USE INFILL/ ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT MIX OF LOCAL; REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET -ORIENTED" RETAILERS IEW'DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT. NATIONAL AND EGIONAL RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION/ REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED' WITH A BYBRID OF "BABY:BOX" RETAURANT AND A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT SUPERMARKET AND PHARMACY ANCHORED WITH BLEND OF LOCAL ' AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES Petaluma Leakage A Sustainable Ref6i/ Strategy Study, June 20 Page E8 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES ,io 1—r Northerri '79 Rain5VA16 R d Cj 4f Pefd uma!s Cientra vy 4- Wd&ington 00 14 O oi -ail: Corridor RETAIL SITES R6 1. Dowtown 2. Golden Eagle 3. Fairgrounds 14� 4 X 4. Petaluma'Plazas 5. Washington Square HIg�I 6. DSL/Ra'inier nqp 7. Petaluma Village Factory Outlets Niueypr "j-, anoip T4 i - '00 _3 8 Re_dwoQd Center _A, U 9. Osh/,Orchard Plaza the A; .44; "Z3, T%vo: 1'0.. G&G'Site 0 i 10 1 1. Petaluma Gateway evi a ig way 13. Yardbirds Plaza 2 t, SM q., t4. Arroyo.Center 4 A' 4 MAP KEY Highway Commercial 0j Southern Wn eway -Use W f i t.6 Gat Downtown Commercial/Mixed Use W, P'Cou U jse a 0rienMfi 'Strip Commerical mi 77 -1 Community Commercial Rion Tourist Commercial 6 tot Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E9 A 1. INTRODUCTION Recognizing community perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned by the, City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail 'Leakage and' Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is to assess anci_ determine the missing pieces in Petaluma's retail offering. This purpose is accomplished, by ,measuring the scope of opportunity for introducing such retail functions that will redirect, recapture and harness healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared 'cluring; the."pe_riod July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey; which was undertaken in July and August, ,2003 'to further gauge and quantify the. magnitude of retail leakage and voids. 1.1 PROGRAM OBJECTIVES The study was guided by the following objectives: 1) To assess and establish the overall size of the retail market and various trade area segments within this market. 2) To undertake, consumer research to verify the degree of ,retail sales outflow and to determine how people spend their shopping/leisure dollars, where and why. 3) To establish 'the appropriate amount of space on a category - by -category basisi as well • ..as optimal retail mix and positioning for Petaluma's various retail clusters, with specific attention to the Downtown and -Highway clusters. 4) To identify specific retail tenant types that realistically fit the functions recommended from the retail opportunity assessment, and identify key locations where these retailers should be placed, as well as their general economic impacts.. 5) To assist the City in Identifying and Unelertaking Implementation Actions, Strategies & Tactics to activate the recommended retail strategies. *Forestville: ...0 •-- _�i-'dig-'^ _• ..,a-:��s-i ' t2 �:,.' S8_lt`tH ROSa,.''�z ..:•�_ ,Zy - I'. "Sebastopo; �, - _ Yountvitle "N A. P�' A ON O S . M `0R A I , `2otineit Park q...oyes'Hot EI Verano " Sonoma i101 4 f'eFaluina J -.. Canyon' Novato37, ,?O- glrtt Reyes` _: ` ' ; M A A t N' ,,; San Pabk% •µ• `✓ "^ ii 3 ftadeo w Seashore,,:•.,.-' ., '"-`�•'',;�?:, k��;:• ,r - -: "m San AnseUno ' afael OceanLake-: -yt "San"Pablo ci „` iset?C8r1(Ake ` Kentfield f_ ..Ta 2571n_ La xtt araacpe=sx 'inond'YSat �;j,.e, .:a:- - �i: ,y`'' ::'. :iYorte'Madet2.�.;::�:`•.-.: ' . • W rP i8; t1 `.o- � tire''^" "•MI L,Valley, _ . �':` EI'Cerrit olden Gate:- s,- N:R.Aw 'i��"-� :•;�; .�....,..,:.- .4 " .•SatiFiaadsaiM� -,.0. U5811t0 - , •.�-; rr.gerltl Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page I 1.2 KEY STUDY CONSIDERATIONS The study also addresses the following .key considerations: ° Market Research ,by City Retail Clusters: Downtown, Petaluma Boulevard_ North. corridor; -East Washington corridor (east of Lakeville to Highway 101:), McDowell Boulevard cluster (two blocks north and south of intersection with East' Washington), and` other clusters as identified by consultant. Sales Leakage by Merchandise Type: Research the available discretionary and non=discretionary spending of the Petaluma community and. available market trade to `identify the retail gapswoids and to- allow �develo.pment of a palette of ° retailers to `-'stop leakage". • .Analysis for Attracting Gap Retailers; Identification of locational strengths ,for attracting, missing retailers. Retail Demand,. Potential ' Business Attrciction: Recognizing that Downtown Petaluma is a key contributor to the. City's economy and' a major focus of City investment in economic and policy -terms; securing -Downtown Vitality- protects this investment and is an identified priority of the City. A sizable portion of sales from .general merchandisers have the potential to overlap existing- local specialty retailers, increasing potentially adverse impact of "cannibalization" of existing sales. Identification of new stores that concentrate on specific product lines not currently locally available will keep shoppers in town, reducing leakage. The. resulting Retail Strategy Study indicates the timing necessary to insure that Petaluma is able to target those specialty lines least likely to cannibalize local retailers and therefore most likely to provide a net sales 'tax increase, with minimal undesirable side effects. s j, ivuanan�s U Nei Benefit of Various Retailers to Local Economy: Annual Economic Impact by Retail Store Type — Recommended Measures to. Insure Compatibility- with Existing Retail Sales Tax Base: It, is the 'intent that we maximize the "net" public revenue from retail sales gains, rather than "cannibalize" existing retailers. Maximizing the revenue increase from new retail will require targeting retail outlets with product lines price ranges not currently available in Petaluma. The intent is to avoid simply shifting from one store to, another. List of Preferred Retailers to Bridge the Existing Gap: It is recognized .that filling the gaps in. the 'existing array is more immediately critical, than supplementing Petaluma's "general merchandise" offerings. Site Selection-&-'Redeve'Iopment. Potential: .Identification of sites that maximize economic' potential to retailers that also maximize economic. -advantages to Petaluma. Identification of sites within, and routs.ide of, the Redevelopment Areas capable of providing economic synergy with Downtown. Sites are identified and appropriate development guidelines prepared to allow marketing of the sites 'to targeted retailers. It is understood that functions of site assembly and marketing will be addressed through the City redevelopment and economic development teams. It is not the intension. of .the study to address "Automotive Sales, Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or ,Fueling," all of which are already performing well within, Petaluma. Rather, the study focuses on "Comparison" and "Convenience" retailing. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 2 0 • Another key objective of the Retail Strategy Study is to position Petaluma's various retail clusters to be complementary to one another, and exploit their specific "points of difference" from existing and planned retail competition elsewhere. In so doing, Petaluma must capitalize on its strategic geographic position in the marketplace, and fill the "gaps" and "voids" for retail merchandi:se,'price point's, dining and entertainment alternatives in the sub -region. 1.3 STUDY PROCESS Figure 1.1 illustrates the study process that was undertaken over the period from July to November 2003. The work program unfolded over four stages. On October 2"d, an interim presentation of preliminary findings was made to Senior City Staff for feedback and 'input. On October 3`d, the Economic Development Committee of the Chamber of Commerce was provided with a preliminary presentation of the Consumer Survey results. It should be noted that all recommendations put forth by this study are for planning purposes only, to provide direction for the optimal and appropriate evolution of retail functions throughout Petaluma. Accordingly, due to economic fluctuations, etc., Thomas Consultants Inc., does not warrant any of the figures noted in the study will materialize, rather; they are provided for guidance purposes. This report summarizes all key findings and recommendations of the analysis and culminates in a series of "Retail Positioning Recommendations and Strategies" for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. FIGURE 1.1 STUDY PROCESS :STAGE'ONEcn? 'BACKGRODUWMARKET.& w' -` TREND'A_NA_LYSIS>"' _l - STAGE?TWU RETAIL CONSUMER:`. `'SU,RVEYANALYSIS-. ,. _ 1 „ STAGE:THREE: ,.- ,h -ASS ESS RETAIL'OPPORTUNr,r & ESTABLISH RETi4iL`MIX",, ' :&;STRATEGIES;FOWPETAL-UMA'S RETAIL-CLUSTERSa - 1 STAGEi FOUR:' ;'PREPARE SPECIFIC STRATEGIES:F(. THE`.- • ;' "DOWNTOWN:&� HIGHIAIAY?RETAYL ;`CLUSTERS' Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 3 AJ 2. RETAIL LAND USE POLICIES & ISSUES 2A INTRODUCTION Retail functions play a key role, in the City of Petaluma's evolution. Retail binds other mixed -use functions together to create a vibrant 'and dynamic environment; Petaluma's, Draft General Plan 2025 includes retail uses as a significant function in the plan because of its ability to define urban subareas and its ability to generate local sales tax. The City's commercial. uses developed historically along Petaluma Boulevard and Lakeville Highway, with access from Highway 101. In the.'last few decades, businesses have located along. East Washington Street and McDowell Boulevard. These four corridors are Petalufma's -major commercial areas, which comprise an estimated .8% of the: C,ity's total land area (2001). Strip Commercial uses comprise -219 acres (3%) and Shopping Center account for 134 acres (2%) of land '.uses. As shown in Figure 2.1, Petaluma's current Land Use Plan (as per the Draft General Plan 2025 Figure 4-1) identifies that the retail/commercial land uses (i.e. Strip Commercial and Shopping Center) are concentrated in the high exposure areas such as US Highway, 101, Washington Street, Petaluma Boulevard, and McDowell Boulevard. Commercial functions have historically evolved at these locations due to the access to US 1.01. Donsi�narrJs; 2.2 PLANNING SUBAREAS There are twelve planning subareas that comprise Petaluma's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). The •following planning subareas are "summar`ized from the Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025 to help identify the land use and development direction of the retail commercial functions for the City. The retail/commercial land use and building intensity is highlighted in Table 2.1., and identifies the Petaluma Planning Sub -Areas with stronger concentrations and/or opportunities for retail/commercial development or redevelopment. The Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025 descriptions of retail and leisure only go as far as defining "Strip Commercial" and "-Shopping Center." Accordingly, a key, objective, of this Retail Leakage and Strategy Study is to provide further direction for defining. different. types of complementary retail/leisure areas and projects across the City of Petaluma, and to incorporate the missing voids. 2.3 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELPOMENT OR REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Figure '2.2 identifies the various retail clusters in Petaluma that subsequent sections of this study make reference to. Section 10 culminates with the recommended retail positioning and mix strategy for each retail structure. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20� Page 4 �1 • • Ml TABLE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB -AREA ,:�. r.k.,t . <�... ..� s,. `.':�: .`��PETALUNIA��" - _^ SO.UTH�„;�.• SEOt!_ �;,.: •-�., - LAKEVILLE �... ':NORTH:.. �.- - �•:�: :�,. � <. „��.<<°. BUILDING : -��•,:. 3"x� HILLS;.;:: '�BCVD'SOUTH E ��CICINLE Y ` C OWE �• .9 - - - - , ISt. ,... .:..,.r,_..,.,�....... ,. - >, •• C IC: LAN . ...,: ,_ : _� ... �..:::. ....:.. ° ,� . .�s; .... rip'Commerical'.. �.. I,.. .., .. ..._... - I,. ..�.� �I' ,,�, I= - 'I,a 1 -I 1 _ Square Feet 551,6691 8'3511 01 16,001 27,041•I 684,1851 20,6481 2,7861 0 Acres 42:21 1.31 - 0.91 31.71 1-.71 76.71 6.11 0.4� _ 0 0 FAR1 0.301 0.141 0:001 6.T21 0.371 0.201. 0.0.811 _ 0.:171 ow 1 �r a;>s" 5Ko`� n e e Square FeeTl ....,, ,. ..•.. .� .�_.. 220,535� 47;1361 74,2361 89;8231' 01 297,904j 01 34,321�-- 0 O.OI 2.9 Acres' 1,2.51 3.01 7.11 - 7.21 0.0I 36A _ I 0.0� 1 FAR 0A 0.371 0.2 _ 0.29I 01 0.22I 01 0.271 - 0 Source: Petaluma Draft General Plnn 2025 KEY RETAIL CONCENTRATION PLANNING SUB -AREAS The following commercial land use opportunity areas are suggested by the Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025: CPSP - OPPORTUNITIES: Extensive vacant and underutilized sites with potential for infill or reuse; 'Basin Street' projects (vertical mixed -use) may set tone for future eiverfront development near Downtown. NORTH MCDOWELL BLVD - OPPORTUNITIES: Intensification of commercial, office, and light industrial sites; availability of vacant or underutilized land (77 acres). PAYRA'N-M&INLEY - OPPORTUNITIES. Large amount of vacant land along Petaluma River; Redevelopment of parcels immediately adjacent to. Petaluma Blvd North. PETALUMA BLVD NORTH - OPPORTUNITIES: Vacant land with development potential and/or intensitification available along east side of Petaluma Blvd if floodway improvernents.are undertaken. WASHIN.GTON CORE = OPPORTUNITIES: Relocation of Fairgrounds will allow the redevelopment of this prime site; Reuse and intensification of Kenilworth Jr. High School; Potential infill of small commercial uses along East Washington Street. WEST - OPPORTUNITIES: Economic development and redevelopment opportunities in Downtown; Appropriate infill and adaptive reuse. '�o++srrrtanrs Y Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 5 FIGURE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB-AREA Sing 'F fe amity Residential Multifamily Residential LIU�f ,a SeniorHousing l►' y(j)� '` 2'` !� �' rift/ r, _ Strip Commercial Shopping Center envy Commercial Motel/Hotel Office ,.•.� .mow=_:'` r.�" - - - -_ Mix ed Use Educational institutioriai Park/Recreation - - r _ �.J Pr'iato Recreation eati on r- ! 1. i x -fi• =_ - Qi.. f,, ems'^ JIM Heavy Industrial Light Industrial t "=• ��.-' Warehouse 1 M J I ! i Agricultural - rculturaf i' - ay i r"A .. i s: o a r. u.t vacant Land Urban Growth floundar Y -„ <• ` '3 River and Creeks 1 - S y - i" r; 1 .. `,:1. - ': =;:'1 >.�.. .- ^l . as-.- _ _ _—,'•?A'}� .w`, pn;• � � - 3 •n.. �. � _ .. ,...�'.r ,.. ._...._.x,_,. ... _ .. ,'.�i�`�'�:-..,.__. _ ,- r.'-`:. e�.`iatr.��t,: .F. - �\� :L-ca e - f/ L�. .•a %cy �� SOURCE: CITY OF PETALUMA, DRAFT GENERAL -PLAN 2025 Petahirna Leakage A Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 206 Page 6 FIGURE 2.2 CITY OF PETALUMA RETAIL CLUSTERS: POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND REDEVELOPMENT SITES REDWOOD CENTER 5 z x rSITERai1sYIe Rd _ja Skillman �. t� WACTOR-Y __ �UT ET � ���ir�,�,•- Eastman L-- i- ! Regional PSrk DOWNTOWN 'PETALUMA 11 • 0.2001 Morosoie,Corv.-Nl rights reserved f GQL•DEN-.;EAGLE. t DEPOT/STA'TIO1 9 .. .._/. i - •. Ste- _ . UMA PLAZAS 1'IV-ASHINGTON -SQUARE,,-.: Adbbo 44:. �KEN�LVI/ORI/ cZe"d 'A A D IAI Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 7 SUITABILITY TO INCORPORATE NEW RETAIL The retail cluster sites identified in Figure 2.2 include: *Downtown Petaluma West ,Golden Eagle & Station RDA Site *Kenilworth/Fairgrouncls Site *Petaluma: Plazas *Washington Square *DSL/Ranier Site 1P&tdlUma Village Factory Outlets *Redwood Center Table 1:2 Evaluates the . "retail suitability" and attradiyeness of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail uses that are not currently available in Petaluma. This evaluation considers 15 individual retail site criteria in equal weighting.- Out of 'a total best possible score of 75, site, suitability scores ranged. from 45 to 63. Highlights of this, analysis suggest' the following: • the -Petaluma, Plazas (85%) site rated as the best overall site for additional retail potential closely followed I by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84%) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle/Station RDA (76%) and Washington Square 75%) ranked the next strongest for adding new retail functions. • Downtown Petaluma West (60%) & the QSL/Ranier Site (60%) ranked in, the middle of the range : • The weakest site was the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47%) site. 0 TABLE 2.2, RETAIL SUITABILITY EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT & REDEVELOPMENT SITES ad, r 0_ ' SITESITECL0 2 4 l -_'CHARAC-TE.AISTI-- C" C .- - tk di M 4) 0 32 11'�EWEAKEST- SC6kE�.r"�"�' C Lj0 E _E O� NGEST1CORE. 0, o ' 0 -,2t=# ,.-R .41 ea hZ 1 .4) 0 0 CL '-LL VISIBILITY & EXPOSURE - Local 5 5 5 ---------- 5 4 3, Reninnal 2 2 5 5 4 5 5 5 ACCESSIBILITY: Local Access 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 Regional Access 1 3 5 5 5 Access to Transit 5 5 5 5, 5 3 1 3 LOCATION: Location Proximity to'Major Arterial Road 4 5 3 5 5 2 -2 Proximity . to Hwy Interchange 1 2 5 5 4 1 i 5' LAND USE ADJACENCIES: Proximity to Retail 5 4 4 5 4 1 1 3' Pro ximityAo Employment 4 3 3 3 2 4 1 5 .Proximity to Residential 4 4 2 4 5 3 1 3 SITE CONFIGURATION: Site Size 1 5 5 5_ 4 3 5 3 _,5— 5— 4— -3— Site Frontage 5- 4 3 5 4 2 1 4 REDEVELOPMENT AVAILABILITY: Flexibility '---- of _Ten_u_re' 1 3 4 1 1 5 5 5 Immediate Availability for, Development/Redevelopment 1 3 4 1 1 5 5 5 bkt " TOTAL "SC5 0kkCENT, .75 , .% 6A""!: 6. -4 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 206 Page 8 3. tALUMA RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW 3.1 INTRODUCTION Understanding the region's retail and leisure infrastructure is necessary to ,gauge its potential competitive influence on the City of Petaluma's retail offering and its,retail leakage concerns. The characteristics of other centers will„also help determine voids and opportunities for'the appropriate merchandising and tenant mix strategy for the various' retail' sites within Petaluma. Given the purpose of this study and project context of Petaluma, the. competitive 'analysis will focus on the key shopping centers and retail districts/precincts outside of Petaluma. The section begins with a_n overview. of Petaluma's retail functions, highlighting trends in the local marketplace, followed by a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the major retail nodes and retail districts/precincts outside of Petaluma. Each major retail center: and/or retail district/precinct will be assessed on the following elements: ➢ location and Context ➢ General Physical Characteristics ➢ Overall Merchandising Offering ➢ Tenant Mix ➢ Price Point ➢ Potential Competitive Influence • 3.2 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES The activity of shopping can be categorized into three general types: Convenience, Comparison, and Leisure. These general shopping types are also associated to a shopper's or customer's trip purpose. A customer's shopping trip purpose is typically influenced by factors such as merchandise selection, quality, price point; and overall shopping expe`rierice. This is translated into a shopping center's destination appeal. It is riot the intension of the is study to address ``Automotive Sales, r` S Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," all of which are already performing well .within Petaluma. Rather, the study focuses on "Comparison" and "Convenience" retailirig. k . "Convenience Retail" facilities are defined as venues that feature r merchandise (e.g. groceries, personal./professional services, deli/bakery, etc.) that satisfy the averager customer's daily needs. Convenience needs are frequent and appeal to a very localized area. On, the other hand, "Comparison Retail" facilities feature merchandise on which patrons typically compare prices, especially for `-big ticket' items such as electronics home entertainment equipment, home furnishings, fashion, etc. Shoppers for this merchandise type are willing to drive farther distances to satisfy their needs for quality and price satisfaction. Activity for this `shopping type' is less frequent than Convenience shopping, but attracts shoppers from a broader region. Additionally, "Leisure", which includes "Restaurants" and "Entertainment," are also examined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 9 Leisure based venues such as cinemas, restaurants, and other entertainment related activities are strongly driven by destination appeal. Patrons seeking leisure oriented activities can bemotivated, to drive longer distances to satisfy their entertainment needs (as is further illustrated in the Entertainment Retail Trend Profiles presented in Section 5). Although, the visits to such venues are less frequent, customers are originating from a larger trade area. Overall, the patronage rate of all shopping formats is influenced by a shopping venue's perceived destination appeal. Although Convenience centers only cater to daily needs and are typically considered `chore shopping,'retail formats today are evolving, to accommodate multipurpose functions inorder to satisfy a broader ranger in needs and. wants of its customers. FIGURE` 3.1 _ GENER-AL.RETAIL TYPES DEST1NeT1nru, evpcAt Lacal rrxs� . utlarus DATRnNAr%F R ATF FrequenI 3.3 PETALUMA RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE The City of Petaluma's existing retail infrastructure can be categorized into two key segments, specialty merchandise in the Downtown area (i.e.. antiques, art galleries;. apparel accessories, etc.) and convenience. goods/services surrounding Downtown Petaluma. 'Petaluma's retail is also sprawled throughout the city, lacking a major destination shopping facility for comparison merchandise. Downtown Petaluma. (and its immediate surrounds) has an estimated 362,000 sq. ft. of retail, restaurant, and entertainment leisure, functions. Nearly all of Downtown Petaluma's� specialty and apparel- merchants are local operators, with -a minimal representation of national/branded retailers. Given the specialty °natu,re�!of -Downtown's overall retail offering, this - precinct is not considered destination for comparison merchandise: Retail outside of the Downtown area is primarily comprised of community -scale convenience strip centers that serve the everyday needs of local residents. These strip centers. (e.g. Petaluma Plaza, Plaza North, Washington Square, Golden Eagle, Petaluma Gateway) are less than 200,000 sq. ft. each, and are typically anchored by supermarkets and/or department stores. As shown in Table 3..1, there are approximately 775,000 sq. ft. of convenience -oriented retail functions in Petaluma. Due to the `convenience' nature of the retail infrastructure, the majority customers, for such strip centers are typically within 3 miles of the retail center. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200age 10 - TABLE 3.1 MAJOR PETALUMA RETAIL CENTERS ,,.. r _, . �.� ..,,.. ... s • :...;... �..� .�. � _ ,....,:..•s,. ' ..�'�:'..:; ..::::::-.=u ,., .. , . _ :.<.,�':. ::. h-... .�.:'=',:tom <<.'", _`5.. +,�''°; — C G ✓. ,.v,. *.:}W ,r +*-e g."'�' . rr.. 3•cy„� :e ,. e> • z ;G.. : s _ e sd'A,. '.e,i"'""-",t g !i•v �"..i} t�..,« -.. n .r ..- ., e ,., .. v e .. ,r ..2'e a. ,.t h. ,: -. .... .. a x ✓. -.;"� ,y..; 'fi' v.. w,b. - w .. s.'a�a:5.e,_ .. �. .. vs -, ru.. : , ... , n. .z..%. to.. ..,i a2'a n .!5� n:.Y.� v''3 ;'e T n Y . _. P. r S 4. .. .. -.- .tir .,... °. T. .. _ +v= ........ , �> - _ RETAEL CENTER >� �L A OFd. �:.. �•� �� _.'"' , ., r. aJ.. ++:,-.'.., ,. .r3ra •as �..:�:?r: w- .��.rv. ..."'+.. ,i .:. �:. :., aa. �.- - - - ..a'�y�-q�` .v l r: B:„��: �'. - .'�>S,B,• r, .5.� n�mm ,y:?'F. PsET°ALUMA:.='SOIdOMA COUNT-Y� r E. Washington St/ Petaluma Plaza 129,000 I Community Strip I JCPenney, Ross, Big 5, Sports McDowell Blvd ; Plaza _North ( McDowell Blvd/E. Madison I 140,000 I Community Strip I Big K-Mart SEC McDowell Blvd/ Washington Square I 160,000 Community Strip I I Safeway, Mervyn's, Staples 'Washington St I SEC McDowell Blvd'./ Orchard Shopping Center I 75,000 I Community -Strip I Orchard Supply Hardware Old Redwood Hwy Lakeville Blvd/ Petaluma Gateway I 75,000 I Community Strip , Albertson's Caufield In Petaluma Village Stoney Point Rd I 196,000 I Outlet Mall I Off 5th - Saks Fifth Avenue Outlet Premium Outlets ABOVE RETAIL IN MAJOR CENTERS = 775,000 SO. FT. + EST. DOWNTOWN, ,STR'EETFRONT & IMMEDIATE SURROUNDS = 362,000 S.Q.FT. ESTIMATED TOTAL PETALUMA I-NVENT,ORY (EXCL. AUTOMOTIVE) ,=- 1,137,00,0, SO. FT: RETAIL ISSUES . CHALLENGES: • RETAIL IS SPRAWLED ACROSS PETALUMA WITH NO DISTINCT FOCAL POINTS OR STRUCTURE. • DOWNTOWN I:S 'DOMINATED BY ANTIQUES & LOCAL SPECIALTY RETAIL. • OUTSIDE DOWNTOWN IS DOMINATED BY CONVENIENCE/STRIP RETAIL. • SOME OF BEST RETAILERS AT OUTLET CENTER ARE HARD TO GET TO. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 11 .., Due to Petaluma's less developed retail infrastructure, local residents are driving to more established markets such as Santa Rosa (Sonoma County), Novato (Marin County.) and Corte Madera (Marin County) to satisfy their shopping needs, especially for value -related merchandise. 3.3.1 PROPOSED KEY RETAIL PROJECTS Petaluma's retail landscape is evolving, and there has been new retail development interest in the City. Some of the new retail developments are highlighted as follows: The DSLIRainier site, along North McDowell Boulevard (just west of Washington Street), is proposed -to accommodate a 183;000 sq. ft. community retail center, anchored by a 13.4,000 sq. ft. home improyement/gar.den .store. Ancillary retail "functions will comprise "the remainder" retail-floorspace. Redwood Gateway 'Center, proposed by Robertson Properties; is located at the former Pacific Theaters site on North McDowell Boulevard. This 156,000 sq. ft. center will be' anchored by a 95,000 sq. ft. Kohl's, and supported' by other ancillary retail uses. Basin Street Town Center is a .mixed -use development in Downtown Petaluma, comprised of approximately 20,000 sq. ft. of retail. and service functions .in a. retrofitted historic building. The project is located on a high profile site in proximity to high pedestrian traffic and will have onsite parking. iv�s�dranfs s 0 Basin Street Landing (67,000 sq. ft.) is also a mixed -use project in Downtown Petaluma adjacent to the Petaluma River. The project will integrate 25,000 sq. ft. of .retail, restaurant and offices, along with 43 apartment units on the second and third floors. Both Basin Street projects will be the first of their kind for Petaluma, creating an integrated, pedestrian -oriented environment for local residents. Whole Foods is currently undergoing a 7,000 sq. ft. expansion, with a scheduled completion in Febru,ary/March :2004. Some of the improvements include an expanded produce 'department, additional food items, and parking. 3.4 CITY OF PEtTALUMA VOID ANALYSIS The City of Petaluma's major retail centers were assessed over 1'2 retail and leisure "categories to determine the potential. market voids' in the local marketplace.. Looked at another way, the -se voids represent the key opportunities for introducing missing retail functions into Petaluma. Comparing the demographic and expenditure profiles, (in the subsequent sections) with the retail void analysis, provides directions for the .optimal 'market positioning and merchandising strategy for the various retail sites, being considered by the City. As shown in Tdble- 3.2, this qualitative analysis ranks the noted retail leisure categories by overall selection and quality. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 12 • • • TABLt 3 .2 CURRENT RETAIL OFFERING VOID ANALYSIS - CITY OF PETALUMA _ L i. ch nd•� �� Petolurrr' ra ...:.Hr. Dovvntowrr'::-w =P"Plat' ' Pla' ;..,. " : ° { ' :� > ' a`x Washir►" toe`. Peialuma.•. _ §. z:,x. a(,,P. z` 9 S,u: .l. '::Villa e. RETAIL,CAT ..PP. Y:'i`�-:.=�" 9, EGO � , - " :`_ `�5 vare,� ,s. , � North,Ym:: ardv✓aeµ. �°z'c` T tam F. .2. C er•�`N�: "` ., ✓,- "..,. >; .. ., m .=:"f, __ - «, ., - ,. „+ ��T`." ,.' ��..'_.;".r, .- .m ,--...:a.r�'-'., .•�;?'tif�'Ye ..tiy„^,..-'ae.:kC'..m.. - 'uC.s Apparel, Footwear & Accessories I Moderate Jewelry &,Accessories � Moderate � Moderct Media (Books, Music, etc.) Sporting -Goods & Toys Housewares, Furnishings & Accessories I Moderate . Specialty Retail Electronics/Home Entertainment Value -oriented general merchandise (Box Retail) Moderate Food/Beverage - Restaurants/Cafes Moderate, I Moderate Entertainment (Attractions, Sporting Events, Cinemas, Nightclubs/Bars, Etc.) Convenience (Grocery, Pharmacy, Liquor/Tobacco) Services OVERALL RANKING Limited to BY AREA Moderate Moderate Sourced Thomas Consultants Inc. ''Not applicable to regional mall or specialty center, retail formats Limited I Moderate Limited to Moderate Limited Limited • k1 11 x' r� �"- p VERALL�• RarvKiNG. :w 'Limited. to Moderate' e Limited to Moderate Limited f Limited Limited; to Moderate Limited to Moderate Limited Limited to Moderate Moderate Limited Moderate Moderate Moderate Limited Representation =STRONG OPPORTUNITY Moderate Representation = MODERATE OPPORTUNITY Strong Representation = LIMITED OPPORTUNITY'`` Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 13 The following highlights the salient findings of the void analysis: ➢ With the exception of Downtown Petaluma and Petaluma Village. Premium Outlets, the City's retail 'infrastructure is convenience -oriented, and lacks the comparison merchandise that would attract destination shoppers. ➢ Downtown retail is heavily oriented toward specialty, merchandise, and lacks the merchandise selection to create an overall shopping destination draw. ➢ National/Branded retailers are not present in the Downtown market, resulting in a more regional appeal for certain specialty retail categories such as antiques. ➢ The retail categories including Sporting Goods and Electronics/Home Entertainment are. weakly "represented in the local marketplace, and likely results in retail leakage to more established retail -markets for these categories. ➢ Petaluma Village Premium Outlets offers the best selection in brand . names within the City, and is likely a key shopping destination for fashion appprel/footwear accessories merchandise. .There are a limited number of large format or 'box retailers within- the City. Given the ongoing popularity of value retail goods, this retail format would serve to attract significant retail shopper traffic from a regional scale. • Overall, the City of Petaluma's retail .infrastructure, is limited to two formats, 'Main Street style' specialty goods, and Convenience Strip Centers ('sup'ermarket .anchored). Given that other neighboring and more established retail `markets (i.e. Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, etc.) feature: other retail formats with a wide selection of branded 'merchandise, customers are drawn to these centers%precincts, and establish shopping, patterns around them. As such, Petaluma's .retail role_ and function becomes perceived as a destination for specialty merchandise or convenience/service goods. • Petaluma Leakage &_ Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200ge 14 ` J 4.0 REGIONAL RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW The retail market has been experiencing minimal increases in general store sales over the last year. Large format or box retail development is continuing its dominance in new development in the region. Local commercial brokers report that the Sonoma County Highway 101 Corridor could experience 'up to 800,000 ;sq. ft. of additional retail developments over the next several years if planned projects are approved. Regional and national retailers seeking development sites include Target, Kohl's, Lowes Home Improvement, Home Depot, Staples, Pier 1 Imports, Office Depot, sporting goods, home electronics; and discount apparel categories. The overall lack in viable zoned retail sites and tenant demand for optimal locations have increased land values for 5 to 15 acre sites to $14 p.s.f. to $20 p.s.f. Lease/rental rates for "prime" locations have reflected similar increases, ranging from $25 - $36 p.s.f. per annum (triple net). For example, a recently developed Safeway anchored strip center development in Santa Rosa is commanding up to $42 p.s.f. per annum (triple net) for shop space. In contrast, Petaluma is achieving $25 - $36 p.s.f. per annum (triple net) for similar retail space. For new, larger retail users (e.g. Supermarkets), average lease/rental rates of approximately $1 6 - $17 p.s.f: per annum ,(triple net) are being achieved. Overall, as the region's population and incomes increase; an increasing number of national and/or regional retailers will be seeking potentially `untapped' second -tier markets to enter. 4.1 KEY CENTERS IN SONOMA COUNTY & NORTH MARIN COUNTY The location of the neighboring communities (to Petaluma) with more established retail infrastructure is illustrated in Figure 4.1. These communities are all within a 35 minute drive time of Petaluma. Table 4.1 highlights the estimated size, format, and anchors 'of the major retail centers to the north. 4.1.1 ROHNERT PARK The City of Rohnert Park is just north of Petaluma and is within a short drive time.. This community's retail infrastructure is comparable to Petaluma's convenience retail offering (Le. strip centers with supermarkets, drugstores, services, .fast food restaurants; etc.), but is also represented by some large 'format retailers (e.g. Target, Costco Wholesale, Burlington Coat Factory, Office Depot, Big 5 Sports, JoAnn's Fabrics, etc:). Despite the presence of box retailers, Rohnert Park's overall retail offering is either convenience or value merchandise. As shown in Figure 4.2, there is no major shopping destination for comparison merchandise and/or specialty retail goods, and is considered a second tier retail market. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 15 FIGURE 4.1 NEIIGHBOR(NG COMMUNITIES WITH ESTABLISHED RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURf. F • Petaluma Leakage & Susta.inable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 16 TABLE 4.1 NORTH REGION RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE (SONOMA COUNTY) CT. i D 7A Vf" OHN NOUfNTY �,X F North Bay Center �Expressway Blvd/ I 75,000 Community Strip Albertson,'s, Commerce St Rite -Aid Expressway Blvd/ - Park Plaza 8 6,00,0 C, Community_ strip Safeway, Longs Drugs Commerce St, SWC' Expressway Target -Center 150j000 I community Strip I Tar -get, Burlington Coat Factory Redwood BvIds 'Un-Named Expressway, Blvd/ Strip Center 100,000 Commun-ity Strip Valley Furniture, ,Big S Redwood Dr 'Ports Costco Wholesale Hwy 10-1 /Redwood Dr 100,000 Stand Alone Box N/A j. A N R MA,CO UN �74 t Coddingtown Mail Cleveland Ave/ I 9641,000. Regional Mail Gottschalks,, JCP'enney - Maq - y s, Big'5 Guerneville Rd Sports, Ralph's. Santa Rosa Marketplace Santa Rosa Ave/ 536,000 Power Center Costco, Tar get,'Sport Mart, Best Buy; Kawana Springs Rd 'I Off ice DepcqMaJr�shd'W' Santa Rosa Southside Santa Rosa Ave/ 200Q00 j Community Strip y p Cost Plus World Market, REI Sloo.f.ts,'Toys Hwy 101 'R Us Santa Rosa Town Center I Santa Rosa Ave/ 135,000 Community Strip Bed Both & Beyond, Comp USA, Borders Burt St Books, The Good Guys Santa Rosa Plaza Hwy 101/3rd St I 700,000 Regional Mail Macy's, Mervyn's, Sears Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2604 Page 17 FIGURE 4.2 ROHNERT PARK MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE MAP KEY ;Mfl"Av b�ae "4' 45 RIEGIONAL/SUPERkMi-oNAL MALL Uj POWER CENTER Y, STRIP,_. tUEETORONT RETAIL PRECINCT 4_ Fr _MINEMA EGAPLEX C CONVENIENCE NEIGHBORHOOD_ CENTER rk7pTrj 0 ne F- 7� I ONE] ztl- , E 7� Ent rrse D '-L;'7PO.VHRt�,C ENTER-- J c A ffi � —JI 11: ve Uj Xi �c ati-A�e, w L�n6 r CZA "C', ENTER. -NORTIH V, 7, A y F, CL t (p R" blar ar Robi ''Rd X4 '101 • ry Do c soft cqrp�. 'nQ`43'reie'r7ved.- Al • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 18 4.1.2 SANTA ROSA Santa Rosa, which is approximately 15 minutes drive from Petaluma, is the dominant 'retail center to the north and has an estimated retail inventory (includes all retail types such as auto/RV dealerships; financial institutions, gas service stations, etc.) of 7.7 million sq. ft. Referring to Figure 4:3, Santa Rosa's retail' infrastructure is comprised of two super regional malls (Coddingto.wn Mall - 964,000 sq. ,ft. and Santa Rosa Plaza — 700,000 sq. ft.) and box retail strip centers (Santa Rosa Marketplace, Santa Rose Southside, Santa Rosa Town Center). The -major centers in South Sonoma. and North Marin_ Counties are highlighted in Table 4.2. Santa Rosa's critical mass of retail functions, particularly for value retail, provides strong destination appeal for this community. Furthermore, . national branded retailers are well represented in the marketplace, including Target, Burlington Coat Factory, Costco Wholesale, Cost Plus World Market, The Good Guys, Marshall's, etc. The strip/power center developments, are also concentrated along the Santa Rosa Avenue corridor, with excellent access to/from Highway 101, further strengthening this precinct's destination appeal. Based on the level. of merchandise, selection and strong presence of national/branded retailers, Santa Rosa is a formidable retail competitor in the regional market, likely attracting strong patronage from Rohnert Park and Petaluma. 4.1.3 NOVATO/SAN RAFAEL The City of Novato, approximately 15-20 minutes drive south of Petaluma, has a similar retail infrastructure to Santa Rosa and could be an alternative to shopping facilities north of Petaluma (see Figure 4.4). In addition to a variety of typical supermarket anchored convenience strip centers, Novato possesses one regional center (Vintage Oaks at Novato). Vintage Oaks at Novato is an open-air format regional center anchored by value -oriented tenants (i.e. .Costco,. Marshall's, Target, and Ross Dress For Less). This development reflects some of the new design .elements, emphasizing visually appealing building facades and storefronts for power center formats. The overall merchandise reflects middle price _ points; emphasizing the value -oriented retailers such as Payless Shoe Source, Shoe Pavilion, Athlete's Foot Outlet, Old Navy, etc. The Toys and Electronics categories are weakly represented .inthe tenant mix. The Mall at Northgate in the City .of San Rafael is just south of. Novato and is approximately 742,000 sq. ft. This enclosed regional center, anchored by Sears, Macy's, Mervyn's, and Century Theaters, is very dated in appearance. The mall at Northgate features middle price point merchandise. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 79 FIGURE 4.3 SANTA ROSA MAJOR -RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE '7 IYTOWW, -Xlb L MAP KEY cu r Rrt -7,7 B40 'fll �KQ I" .Z. REGION AL/SLI PER REGIONAL MALL. C6156 WIPTOWN MALL--l. L POWER, CENTER 6Y. 7� 'i I 'M !I i STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT Der Rc Rd 0 0, MEGAPLEX CINEMA T El K, i i i ILL;,q 7�, Mel- a P.nq 6 Ile'Rd 'joyerne C-'- 1L �i, . 10 V 0 L^�` 1 I. 4 i'a1 Zwz; �F- U.. c a-, % call Rd 11 Rd r k �k 77? Y'SQLIARr:C` 112 �6, i �q 1y�r2 a I' l r'ij S OLg%QVt �' __ r' r. jp 4w— Ricqks.Cowner • 77 _ Tt �A A"TOWN-zi _. TleA O&AAll 'A yuba!M _9J 2001.Mro csofl`CoT.�il rigtTts rEservedl AVE.'A • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 20 • Vintage Oaks 'at Novato, Northgate Mail C O!V E A A' D E Town Center Corte Madera Village at Corte Madera Bon Air Center Larspur Landing TABLE 4.2 SOUTHERN RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE ,Hwy 101 /Rowlancl; Ave 5821 00or 742,000 Hwy 101,/Tamalpais Dr 361,000 Hwy 101 /Paradi§e Dr I 428,000 Hwy 101 /Sir Francis Drake 160,000 Lorspur Circle/ 100,000 Sir Francis Drake Power Center Regional Mail Community Strip Regional Unenclosed Community Strip Community Strip Costco, Target, Macy's. Furniture Store, Ross Dress For Less, Marshall's Sears, Mocy'si Mervyn s S'afeway, Marshall's, The Good Guys, Rite Aid Macy's, Nordstrom Molly Stones Grocery, Long's Drugs Bed Bath & Beyond, REM Brewing Co. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 21 FIGURE 4.4 NOVATO/SAN RAFAEL MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE Marro tR" Oha�r,Park Indian V�Iley k 4 Rd a 0 ' ►9s+' Golf 9yar� 1 DO_WNTO 'N,,� TO` ENTER�nYarf �' � -Noi NA " VE� CENTERx�•= °PA'CH EC 0 2001C1YfsbfL `Dora; All,nahts reserved ' Laguoa_- - z 1' 0VATO FAIR jr J MAP KEY REGION AL/SLI PER REGIONAL MALL POWER CENTER STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT MEGAPLEX CINEMA CONVENIENCE/NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER i - VINTAG AMA UOVAT0 tl Yr ':NORTHGA�TE - Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 22 • Although this regional mall is likely a comparison shopping destination for local Novato/San Rafael residents, it does not possess a strong representation of `Lifestyle' retailers such as Talb'ots, Banana Republic, Guess, J. Crew, Pottery Barn, etc., that are typically present in `trophy' malls. As such, Petaluma residents have the option of going north (Santa Rosa) or south (Novato/San '.Rafael). 4.1:4 CORDE MADERA Corde Madera, approximately 35-40 minutes drive south of Petaluma, is likely outside of the Peta'luma's trade 'region. In addition to 'the tradifiona-I community convenience strip: centers, Corte Mader.a's two key centers (Town Center Corcle Madera and Village at Corde Madera) feature the strongest representation of 'Lifestyle' retailers and upper price point retail merchandise ,in the. region. The lack of these tenants in the major retail centers to the north could suggest that Corde Madera is a potential destination "for brand name or merchandise specific shopping. The Village at Corde Madera (428,000 sq. -ft.), an open=air format anchor"ed by Nordstrom and Macy's, reflects an `Lifestyle'.fupscale tenant roster, including . Banana 'Republic, Ann Taylor, Bebe, Talbbts, Coach, Lucky Brand, Aveda, Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware, etc. More importantly, Corde Ma,dera's upscale, lifestyle merchandise offering is 'interceptory for those shoppers residing in north Sonoma County and enroute to San Francisco for similar merchandise. i 4.2 SONOMA/MARIN COUNTY VOID ANALYSIS A void analysis was also performed for a _selected number of key centers in 'Sonoma and Marin Counties. The purpose is to compare the overall retail offering between Petaluma, and its neighboring communities, to further assess that retail categories - either go unfulfilled or are already present in the market-. Given that some of- Petaluma's neighboring communities are larger' in population, they, possess a more developed retail environment. Referring to Table 4.3, the following are the salient findings: ➢ Rohnert Park, the closest- community north of Petaluma, is the most comparable in retail infrastructure. However., Rohnert Park has a stronger representation of box/value retailers (e.g. Target, Outdoor Pro 'Shop, JoAnn Fabrics & Crafts, Burlington Coat Factory, Office Depot, etc.). The value offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail formats, effectively appealing to a, 'broad market segment. In addition to the regional malls, power centers and box retail -oriented strip centers dominate the .retail landscape. The variety of retail formats accommodates a multitude of national chain retailers-, and ,reflects a `strong' ranking in all categories of the void analysis. The critical mass of branded/national retailers combined value prices, generates the strong 'destination appeal for Santa Rosa. ➢ Novato/San Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the exception of the Electronics/Home Entertainment category. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 23 TABLE 4.3 CURRENT RETAIL OFFERING VOID ANALYSIS TRADE AREA COMMUNITIES - y,` *•.r„i"- a°.°"'-� �„i ,., 3"b + Y:J ' t AT. RETAIL'.- e.., '.-,: :.x xCorde Madera CATEG.O,RY ark,"„° • n_ R' " a OI17a CO: / Y:�� *OVE afael' `:' RANK h W - - :yam '.-s.„ - -_ , 4 - f.,.: - - iY$ ,•.( ..I ' �.;.s:, tea"•:-. - - ''`"' �• -� 7 . -' u' $....-a.� �' �'.:ry -6Accessories Moderate - ,." ,14- rantl Strong ff Llmltetl' p Strong ' fi Jewelry & Accessories _'AIL 47kP Media (Books, Music, -etc.) Sporting Goods. & Toys Housewares, Furnishings & Accessories Specialty Retail Electronics/Home Entertainment Value-oriented'general merchandise) (Box Retail) Food/Beverage - Restaurants/Cafes Entertainment (Attraction's, Sporting Events, Cinemas, Nightclubs/Bars, Etc.) Convenience (Grocery, Pharmacy, Liquor/Tobacco) Services Llmlted Stro_ ng v Moderate _ h Moderate .�fEi 3 .3^ ws Llmtted� Strong ModerateImlted low Uffi fei3� Strong ,ModerateModerate N 3 Moderate m Lim>fed Strong �r ,� Ltm tedte Moderate trong�§ Strongs,Moderate Moderate to -77 Strong ModerateStrong K"R,Moderate Moderate Moderate ANO F Strong Strong Strc g = Yam,* �� Strong .. i,Strong OVERALL, RANKING BY AREA Moderate Source: Thomas Consultants Inc. 1 Not applicable to regional mall or specialty center retail formats. U. Strong Moderate Moderate Strong' to Strong to Strong' Limited Representation STRONG OPPORTUNITY Moderate Representation = MODER-ATE;OPPORTUNITY Strong Representation .LIMITED OPPORTUNITYMOM • Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2000age 24 • ➢ Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of `Lifestyle' - oriented retailers in a more pedestrian -oriented shopping environment. Specifically,,, Corde Madera's `Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle -to -upper price points (i.e. Village at Corde Madera). This retail offering and overall center, profile is more comparable to the upscale shopping centers in. San Francisco. As such, typical patrons of this center are likely to be more affluent. 4.3 R'ETAILER/TENA►NT OPPORTUNITIES National and `lifestyle' retailers 'are sought after tenants for lifestyle centers, regional malls, and other retail formats that focus on comparison and/or value retail:. merchandise... These tenants create credibility for' the retail' center, and' stimulate destination appeal for shoppers. More established shopping centers in .Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Novato/San Rafael, attract shoppers from a regional scale, affecting -Petaluma's `retail ability' to keep their residents 'from shopping locally. Given the availability of key retail 'sites and the lack of national/regional retailer presence 'in the Petaluma marketplace,4here may beopportunities,to attract these tenants. This would contribute to energizing Petaluma's., overall destination appeal for shopping and leisure related visits. By introducing a critical mass of well -recognized retailers and other leisure -oriented venues ..to Petaluma,,the City's appeal for shopping and leisure activities would be complemented, and further strengthen this community's overall profile as a multi- purpose destination for both locals and visitors. • •. Referring to Table 4.4, the Retailer/Tenant Opportunity Matrix highlights the existing branded/national tenants represented in the Petaluma marketplace. More importantly, the matrix identifies the retailers who are not represented. The strongest opportunities are designated as "Site Opportunity A," where the target tenant'is not represented within, the primary trade area or regional market: The criteria for ranking these potential retailers/tenants .is illustrated in the following figure. The rRetailer/Tenant Opportunity ,Matrix.,is, a critical tool for the project's • leasing and marketing team, as it identifies the likely target tenants and can help shape: the role and function of the subject center. Findings from this analysi's suggest opportunities for the following retail formats, retail category, and tenant types: ➢ Large format general merchandise stores (Kohl's). ➢ Value apparel/footwear or discount `department store (TJ Maxx,. Old'Navy, DSW Footwear, etc:)' ➢ Large format house. & home , retailer '(Container Store, Lowes, Linens. `N Things,, etc:) . ➢ .;Large format electronics/home entertainment- (Fry's Electronics, Circuit City; etc.) ➢ Lifestyle/branded retailers (J.Crew, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, American Eagle Outfitters, etc.). Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 25 specifications for site selection criteria; • Fit within the project definition as either a box format or lifestyle retailer. • Meet the 'tenant specifications for .site selection criteria; • Fit within the project definition as either a box format or lifestyle retailer. Potentially meet the tenant. specifications for site selection criteria; Fit within _the ,project definition as either a box format or lifestyle retailer Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20age 26 0�P TAB114.4 RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY. MATRIX General41,� Kohl's Costco BJ's Wholesale Target Cost Plus World -Market Sears Sam!s Club J- DSW Footwear Shoe Carnival Burlington Coat Factory Famous Footwear Shoe Pavilion David's Bridal Nordstrom Rack Marshall's Off Broadway Men's Wearhouse Old Navy TJ Maxx Ho useome .H Linens 'N Things Bed Bath & Beyond JC Penney :Home Lowes Home Improvement Ethan Allan Levitz The Container Store Home Depot Room to Go IKEA Lazy Boy Furniture Gallery -P- & Barnes & Noble Booksellers Fry's Electronics Best Buy Borders Books & Music Office Max r. Circuit City Good Guys Comp USA Office Depot Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 27 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILERJENANT OPPORTUNITYMATRIX Rite-Aid Pharmacy Party City algreen's, Party America, OMMERCIA ILER -S is A 4 R 0, Eddie. Bauer American Eagle Outfitters Christopher & Banks Gymboree Ann Taylor Loft Hollister & Company J.Crew Chico's Hot Topic Children's Place i.jill ,Gap/Gap Kids Jones New York Talbots Lane- Bryant Urban Outfitters Levi's Victoria's Secret Limited/Limited Too Liz Claiborne Lucky Brand Pac Sun: Pea in a Pod Rave Girl, White House Black Market Z,umiez Petaluma' Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 28 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX ootw E, -: , New Balance Aerosoles Nine West Athletes Foot Skechers USA Footlocker Foot Action USA Journeys Lady Footlocker Payless Shoe Source urns The- Walking Company ssories Bombay Company Aaron Bros Art & Frame Pottery Barn/Pottery Barn Kids Ace Hardware Restoration Hardware Sleep Train Pier I Imports White Barn Candle Company Wicks 'n Sticks Ydnkee Candle, Company Z. Gallerie Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 29 TABLE 4,.4 CONT'D. RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX A A,_ Anthropologie Aveda Bath & Body Works Bare Escentuals Body Shop Crabtree & Evelyn GNC Lids Hat Store LOccitane MAC Origins Patagonia Papyrus Sepkora Sporting Eyes .Sunglass Hut/Watch Station Tie, Rack ewes 1<14 es , r -cc on'., k,2 Bailey Banks & Biddle Ben Bridge Jewlem Cibire's Accesso6-'s Samuel's Jewelers Whitehall Jewelers Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 30 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX Build -A -Bear Workshop 66- Z9 i - m— el dit, I N": Magnolia Hi-Fi Radio Shack Play It Again Sports 7-C, Apple Store Bro6kstone Car Toys Electronics Boutique Sam Goody Walden Books Wolf Camera 0 S P cicilt Applebee's Great Harvest Bakery BubbaGump Shrimp Co. Baia Fresh Boston Market California Pizza, Kitchen Chevy's Tex-Mex Chick-Fil-A Chili's Haagan Dasz Marble Slab Creamery Pei Wei Ruby Tuesdays Bucca Di Beppo Coldstone Creamery Tully's Coffee Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 31 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX Z� Ca t Chipotle Mexican Grill Denny's Domino's Pizza EinsteinBros. Bagels Jarnbal Juice ICrispy Kreme Doughnuts Noodles & Company Olive Garden Outback Steakhouse Panera Breads P.F. Chang's China Bistro Pizza Hut Starbuck's Coffee TGI Friday's A a d`h i h s Tr _4A.gym f MtDonald's- Jack in the Box Arby's Panda Express Quizno's Subs KFC Subway Carl's Jr. Taco Bell Wendy's Will Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 32 - TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILER/TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX 6e s- 11 Fcornaio' Pyramid Ale House & Restaurant Alcatraz Brewing Company Johnny Rockets Maggiano's Little Itlay Gordon Biersch Brewery Rock Bottom Brewery Rodizio Grill Romano's Macaroni Grill Bahama Breeze Ted's Montana Grill Wolfgang Puck's The Cheesecake. Factory Z Te-jas 24-Hour Fitness Bally Total Fitness Jillian's Eat Drink Play cer w. -Albertson's Big Lots Ralph's Supermarket Safeway Wild Oats Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 33 5. NORTH AMERICAN RETAIL TRENDS To, illustrate the mix of uses,, range of retail functions and tenant types for the evolving North American retail projects, an analogue of various case study examples was prepared. The key of the analysis was to determine the most critical elements that make such projects work and be vibrant. 5.1 PROJECT ANALOGUE EXAMPLES Inorder to, illustrate the latest in retail trends, an extensive Analogue of Project Examples was prepared, as appears in detail in the Appendices. The Analogue documents the size and tenant composition of the following retail formats and new generation retailer types that are currently driving North American retailing: ❑ Mixed -Use Centers ❑ Lifestyle & New Generation Retail Centers ❑ Main Street Retail ,& Downtowns ❑ Hybrid Centers (Value, Lifestyle & Convenience) ❑ Polarized Retail Centers ❑ Strategic Repositioning of Existing Centers ❑ Entertainment Themed Retail Centers vnan�s l 5.2 KEY COMMON ELEMENTS Key common elements of these project examples are summarized in Figure 5.1 on the following page and as follows: ❑ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. ❑ Exploiting and celebrating the local, organic lifestyle._ ❑ Establishing the community social gathering place. ❑ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. ❑ Culture, arts and education play a prominent role. '❑ Specialty food and public markets are an attraction. ❑' Spaces -are organized into a "Streetscape" setting. ❑ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. ❑ New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. ❑ Investment in architectural & landscape features is :intense. Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 age 34 FIGURR I TRENDS & DISTINCTIVE, QUALITIES OF SUCCESSFUL RETAIL PROJECTS ENERGYA ATMOSPHERE, - PEDESTRIAN-FRI '6L:y STREETSCAPES CREATING SENSE OF PLACE. ARTISANSHIP & NOSTALGIA NOT JUST ANOTHER MALL "HUMANSCALE" Y ARCHITECTURAL CONTINUIT, STOREFRONT ANIMATION. .AMENITIES &LEISURE PUBLIC SPACES ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USES Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June,1604 Page,35 - : \-^ �\ ML:= Center;, Ohio 1 60,00^to 400 ^00 -sq. Of retail, food/beverage, and- -entertain men't. ➢ Siuhu'rban & mixed -use contexts. ➢ Strong presence of. Natilona.1 Retailers". Wide,.selectio,n of dl'nLlng,,'F Emphas.is, on spe,dalty apparel & reta H ➢`Peclesteian & "humon" scale® C RU inline tenants less than 5,000 sq. ft. ➢ R Anchored ' by "New Generation etaflers"o 0 sports, -bookt/medial horUSe/home ME'& eLntertainment, Petaluma Leakage & Sustaihab/e Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 38 0 G ^ .e MAIN STREET G©T PRECINCTS � , 00,00G 000- - � 00 - © �: * ; ƒ + = + . \t * \ ` °} ;). food/beverage + d + entertainment. \ Urban/downtown � - context. ! . ..� \ ° � ^ + + t! + + � 2;\\� � <:' Shared � � pedestrian < «®�..�, /vehicle - -= � access © � .� .>:/�k��� �.,..w, �> Short :< term . !: =t 2 \ parking. . a,.t !! :m,.=. 2:i:� % £»:`#. �corners. » Anchor \2 d t +n \ »».� §\... . ° - local / � <.r- � �� .: � � ® also .-,*n+ 7!«» d§+`.« S #: :««m: some national tenants. � Broad selection + { entertainment . & diningto maintain even,ing *2!:>i,?. « 771= »}S\ap A 9/ £a <f» landscaping, iyg. �<,. ° + public benches, ... . . street �� :,..1>- +u+),. . R,)t<:5. 2<}«,;d. to ¥ \:� :.. � ..� . ; ., : - . , :> � .,. :2!^ ^ � .. \} J m S > # !:©t<l:2 . y setting, .. � ,,. y .. . ., _� , 01, + Petaluma Leakage &Ssr mb/■waSt@eykuwJ_20 Page 39 Located in suburban contexts. T p�ical ty y in the range. of 900,000+ sq. ft. Anchored- by department stores and/or large 'format retailers and/or multiplex cinemas. ➢ Strong national tenant representation to provide the credibility.' ➢ Yalue-orientation of box retailers and overalt middIe price point -1 attract a. broad market segment. Integ rates element of Wev Urbanism' to a ea I to th pp human senses. Petaluma Leakage & Suitainable Retail-Stirategy Study, June 200 age 40 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 41 A ➢ Sign , ificant extedw and interior renovation to create, a new appearance,. and perception. Marketir n!gr efforts promote a new image,creating curiosity and, allure, ➢ Motivation or rationale for repos-itio ning was to revitalize a, specific area and/or -enhance the, centi center's competitiveness n the m-arketplace. Petaluma Lecikagp, & SustainableRetail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 42 _ ENTERTAMMENT M D RETAILING Heavily oriented on human senses: sight, sound, well and touch. Architectural design includes vivid colors, externalized storefronts, & eye-catching facades. Oriented towards tourists & locals. Unique retail streetscape and ind'ivid-ual store designs provide the shopping experience. Centers typically are visitor -oriented and considered as major tourist desti.ncation. The restaurant offeri.n.g also follows ca therned format to maintain the excitement within the center. ➢ Tyicaily "pedestrian -friendly" envir®'nm,ent, with programmed street activity. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 43 6. 'CONSUMER SURVEY RESEARCH In order to objectively assess items such as 'the degree of retail sales oufflow; 'consumer expenditure profile and consumer preferences, it is of vital importance to ascertain the .general image and perception of Petaluma's Central Business District (CB'D). Also, it is critical to gather, quantitatively,, current shopping patterns of residents of. Petaluma, their needs and wants, so that these issues can be addressed in Petaluma's Retail Strategy. Accordingly, a detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during the period of July to August, 2003. Keyfaz Market Research in liaison with. Thomas Consultants Inc., ,and the -City of Petaluma prepared a questionnaire survey tool. The questionnaire was then utilized for the . customer research as detailed below. 6.1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The respondent qualifications and sampling for this study were as follows: RESPONDENT (QUALIFICATIONS ➢Respondent was principle shopper in the household. ➢Respondent was 18 years of age or older. . ➢Resp.ondent resided in designated geographic area. SAMPLING ➢ 400 telephone interviews were completed in total. ➢ Random selection,'of either mal 'female: shopper. ➢ Captured cross-section, of Petaluma residents. ➢ Representative sampling of .Petaluma's ethnic population. ➢ Quotas set by population size, for each of the nine geographic areas. ➢ Minimum quotas set by population size for ethnic origin of respondents. ➢ Randomly generated sampling utilizing the Petaluma directory. FIGURE 6:1 CITY RESPONDENT RESIDES IN Coa RohnertrPark B!. Novato - 1 o 5% Novato - South 4% Sonoma 6% Petaluma - East Q%. Petaluma - West 35% ,0 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 44 - 17, 45 6.2 CONSUMER RESEARCH FINDINGS In general, the telephone survey probed issues corresponding to ➢ Also a notable proportion of A!lidd.le-Age adults of 3'S to 44, Petaluma's major retail nodes. The survey questionnaire tool some with families having mature (adolescent children) as and resulting straight frequency tables are contained in the shown in Figure 65. Appendixes. Specifically, it probed: ➢ A strong proportion of people over 65 (2.1 %). I Respondent Characteristics .2. Retail Patronage Patterns ➢ While 1 2% of all respondents refused to reveal their income 3. Current Shopping Behavior bracket, most households (40%) indicated that' they earned 4. Petaluma Central District Patronage $75,000+ per annum, 24% earn $451000-$75;000, and an 5'. Relative Importance of Shopping Area Features additional 14% earn $25,000-44,999.. Also, 9% earn less then $25,000, as shown in Figure 6.6. The resulting major findings are summarized as follows: ➢ The above profile suggests an affluent mature population 6.3 RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHIC. base that has significant buying power and rdiscretionary CH'ARACTER•'ISTICS time, as they .are approaching the "Golden Years" of their working life. Note: For ,.applicable demographic -questions `0' code for don't .know refused was treated as a missing variable FIGURE: 6.3 and not calculated into the mean. HOUSEHOLD SIZE .Average Household Size •2.7 i ➢ Average household site for the total sam I p e 'is 2,7 with 40%-' ` xr _m , ssio• :, .:- + , '::, .-.: ,:,,.. x, less than 34% of households having children less than 19 years of age (as shown in Figure 6.o 4'). The majority of 35/ ry ahouseholds (38%) have 2 persons suggesting large 30% empty nest and notable p Y - ble cou 'les i ° %'� '��.� ''"5 �:.-_: •��=�: R,r�" p n the 2s/° s,;:.;..; population. 4.- ➢ Most notable segments are mature families with 1=2 115% ' of o adultadolescent:` ....:.. .:... .0.., children young or a,ge. 5J°/ a,..rR ➢ Age profile indicates a large "Empfy.Nest" Baby Boomer 0% .population of 45 to 64 years old. 1 - .2 14 s s 7+ Person People People People People People People Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 46 • FIGURE 6.4 NUMBER IN HOUSEHOLD<19 YEARS OLD r;�%:66°l0:-:���=; �>y;'"s�" `z•f:. P-°.5_ .�ror's::,, • s'`..;,'� 50/ �.a'. •.Y<.-,, �Rtva. , .'A'f.� - _ _ ',3 R N\b. H: 30% r: z�•rf;itvq»'z '.,M,,.' g;.r 0%- 0 1 2 3 4+ FIGURE 6.5 AGE OF RESPONDENT ._:.. Refu sed .x; o< „6: _ o - h 75 .1 T> - r 65-74- 'a9 s.�� w r+Jw°:i.���" :.,^1'{n `^a:.s"n4:wC 'i.�i%� ;m'��'r�. " - ':,✓, u: 55-64 45-54 x'!T-t:: T':ao-i:',^sd s'S"'.'.'.``.^-'aF w4:'$D",.:9ro,F;?" u�,.. .":.'gk'`n"Wr.�,•viv.: :s".L.+a+a;a.,' --.:3—"a�.�...��r..-t '', .,;,,. 35-44 'a. �:,: .- qi'' 34 :<:..:• '14`'.ir"� a & ae 18°k;, a; :;,;`<'<:c3 25-34' ate;3�.e:.•::r.:.�i'ts?.;ra±�;:q'.`.°,,�a.:k'^b'+>.� �s/o" `:--.` '.'ter 'rr's:':.`e�:. =t:'f"�:s' 18-24 :V" s :gM FIGURE 6.6 HOUSEHOLD YEARLY INCOME Refused �:<::.s,:. - ;:::�.,'t a. - ,.»•c:x-+:+=1 _i 2°/sir.-; $fi;�i'•§_�„-dry .y .� 01- 1 ..,- r?l:->.v ����. =4"�-..f�.d'd:'; ,,;',r,';Rii'�•k?n _, '-:S.�deyw."�. :S�.t."•; $75,000 499;999 Iaa .- ._ ... •: =..�.: �,apt�.'„^: ^;�Ne-' - ,c*Srw:>..�;:;`' 18%.;�:µ.S $65,000'- b74:999 M?> ',<c <. '-8'!a' .` - '; .' ": -� $55,000 - 664,999 $45,000 - $54,999 4 8%n? b = $44,999 a .r.. .��s-.a � 7P/et�?i'' :,y;`" r� ;::^•-' - - 'rx . ;'e iu a b25000''- $34,999' pr ;��:; - aY r. 'i 'y. b S 99 �4 1jj b 15 000 g � ;d•, Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 47 The random sampling of Petaluma's ethnic population was capturedfor the purposes of this study, as illustrated by Figure -6J. The dominant ethnic group is Caucasian representing 82% of Petaluma's population base. The next strongest groups are Hispanic/Latino (1 1 %) and Asian Pacific Islander (3%). 80% a 70% J '60% Y7i 5 /6 a ,�,: s 0% _ White FIGURE 6:7 RESPONDENT "ETHNIC ORIGIN '4"•zy;-.;;�'i=�"a; x`_�: ai,;.��4`=�t.:tr'�>; .�_; ",1�x..; _';,���r:a=.,�;;sz �'�+s.':�i:_. .-_::I �s�.Fj',•f�'� ..if1. yC„'b:3.` yti. e�.t�.'.e.: ��:-�'i.;_ _.�-�u��-,.,. - --- .Ss,r4t"'.=✓!^.µ.t, Z� va:dr n YF- - •SYF -.L.� e..4 � ��_�� ,. :°.�?� it M1 r4 Asian' Hispanic BIabW Other Race 'Pacific Latino African Islander American Of the total random sample, 69% of the primary shoppers within households were females and 31 % were males as indicated in Figure 6.8". " FIGURE 6.8 RESPONDENT GENDER Fe m 69`'�0 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 48 6.4 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER FIGURE 6.9 PREFERENCES TOP 10 REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY -COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER Comparison Shopping Centers refers to the place where one shops for !items other than, 'convenience needs; in other Parking t'D'," 4V words where one would shop for clothing, footwear, books, Accessibilitk sporting, g clods, jewelry, housewares, and gifts etc. ail tail Sp Ret Quality Stores DepartmentSfor e s 7 Only 43% of respondents identifie'd shopping centers in 1- k Petalum-A as their- -regular "Primary Shopping Destincition." Clothing Footwear —Obo- -r,Stor -0 The combined Petaluma Plaza North and Washington Square Discount Departm'ent, 0 Close to Horn: are where 21 % do most of their comparison 'shopping as Prices.Sales illustrated in Figure .6.10. The next most notable location is Selection stores the Petaluma V ' illage, Premium Outlets identified by 13%. Multiple Responses 14% identified centers, in Rohnort. Park, 20% identified centers in Santa Rosa, and 12% identified centers in Novato or to the South. FIGURE 6.10 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS REASONS TO SHOP AT PRIMARY COMPARISON Coddington Mall Other Shopping SHOPPINGCENTER SIR No Primary Centers Petaluma 7% 8% 3% Village Premium Outlets Store Santa Rosa P laza 13% selection and price are by far the driving reasons for 7% �Z choosing shopping destinations. Discount Department Stores, Downtown `Santa'ltosa j Petaluma, M 9% Apparel; Footwear and. Department Stores'also influence why arketwac a 1% respondents gd to their primary shopping destination. Store Santa Rosa Town Cent' quality and diVersity of specialty retail also play a role in Plaza No rth,PT, Village at Corte 12% selecting shopping venues as illustrated in Figure 6.9. M adera 4% Town Center Washington Corte Madera 0.3% Square PT 9% N o rt h gat e ; M'a I I SR 4% Expressway Plaza RP % Vintage Oaks N i 1 Downtown Rohnert Park Wal-M art Plaza 2% Novato RP 2% 8% Average $ Bcpenditure Per Month $171.33 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 49 ;7:13 6.5• PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING .CENTER Convenience Shopping Center refers to the place where one shops for day-to-da,y needs such as groceries, pharmacy., liquor and services. Unlike comparison shopping, the rMajority of .respondents shop locally in Petaluma for their day-to-day convenience needs as shown `in Figure 6.11. Wholefoods was identified as the strongest convenience `shopping destination as identified by 25% of -respondents. The next strongest convenience' centers were Downtown Petaluma; and Washington'Square. .FIGURE 6.11 TOP' 5 PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING ZENTERS No Primary G&G 5% 6% Plaza North PT .,, T w`;h T A`. Whole Foods Gate way y e Other Shopping Centers 24% "Average $ Expenditure Per Month $375.18 �rnsu!lana• Washington Square PT 13% Downtown P_ efaluma _ 13'/° FIG.U.RE 6.12 TOP 10 REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTER Familiarity Acce s s ibility Customer Service Drugstore Items Discount Dept or Store ; Selection Stores Prices Sales Quality Stores Groceries Close: to Home Multiple Response REASONS TO SHOP AT PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTERS Proximity to residence and grocery offering were the dominant reasons for 'choosin'g to shop at a Convenience Center as illustrated in Figure 6.12'. Store quality, prices and selection were also strong reasons. Service, accessibility and presence of pharmacy and discount department store, offering were also notable ,reasons. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 50 17� 6.6 CONSUMER PERCEPTIONS OF PETALUMA'S RETAIL RESPONDENT MAIN DISLIKES: Respondents would like to have a better selection of comparison-shopping retail, specifically at a major or discount department store enabling, them to complete a one -stop shopping trip. Also, they would like a movie theatre as illustrated in Figure 6.13. They think changes and improvements need to be made to the parking and roads in Petaluma. FIGURE 6.13 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN DISLIKES 'Nothing Special ."..;,. - 18% "f Selection of Discount Dept or Stores Selection of Department Stores - Prices Traffic Roads 9/0 Parking ;:X' No Movie Theatre y 30%" .. -Was Selection of Stores 39%S' Multiple Response RESPONDENT MAIN- LIKES: Respondents like the locally owned and operated unique shops and antique shops that are available_ to them in Petaluma, as shown in Figure 6.14. They like the atmosphere that Petaluma affords them and =that_ it is pedestrian friendly. In addition, respondents,' like the customer service they receive in the stores, the parking, and the: discount -outlet 'stores as well as the convenience shopping that is all located close to their home. FIGURE 6.14 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN LIKES *Nothing Specific x J'11%To- ° "; -%is'"?'✓%; Pedestrian Friendly Parking �T%>__'. Locally Owned Operated, : 8%.,:-: "`N"" 4' n Co venience Shopping Discount.Stores Dept. Outlet. , .Custom a r'Se rvice Atmosphere Antique Shops. Close to Home "' 4 Unique Shops ',Vg W"Wjg"- 1 �16%' i tig 3. n Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 51 6.7 CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO PETALUMA'S RETAIL 6.7.1 STORES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA Figure 6.1:5 indicates that by far the top stores or services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: Movie Theatre, Discount Dept. Store/Dept. Store, Home Electronics & Computers Store. Next most desired stores to add are: Apparel/Footwear, Books & Music, Home Improvement & Garden, Specialty Retail, Entertainment/Leisure, Casual Dining and Specialty Food Grocery. FIGURE 6.1.5 , TOP STORES OR SERVICES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA *Nothing Specific Grocery Specialty FooiJ$°"%i Footwear Casual Din ing Entertainment Leisure eisure s 5% sd �•�.'' More Variety Selection ��b''%:<, ��,,� ti.��` _ � '.b`t°''�" _'%- Books MusicVD Home lmprove 'ment & Garden Wom a n?s Fashions SpecialtyStoreS Home Electronics Computers' Discount Department or Stores Department Store 3pgy r Movie:Theater • 6.7.2 TOP DESIRED RETAIL STORE ADDITIONS: Figure 6.16 Illustrates that the top seven desired, retail additions to Petaluma would be: ➢Apparel/Footwear ➢Books & Music ➢Electronics & Computers' ➢Home Furnishings/Housewares ➢Sports, Toys & Hobbies ➢Specialty Retail ➢Grocery & Drugstore ,FIGURE 6.16 IMPORTANCE RATINGS FOR STORES ADDED TO PETALUMA Grocery Store Drugstore Specialty Retail 7,_ S or -tin 7Goods Toys Hobbies _, °?;�-- 'S:Oy;,�• Furnishing's Appliances y 5;2,: i Electronics Computers mf, �rleiN 4g Books Music DV Ds Clothing &'Footwear, Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 52 0 0 0 6.7.3 TOP DESIRED SERVICE ADDITIONS: Professional services received the highest rating of 4.7, but no service received a rating of 5.0 or higher, thus indicating the service element is .not perceived -to be significant nor a preferred addition to Petaluma (as, indicated in Figure 6.17). FIGURE 6.1'7 IMPORTANCE,RATINGS FOR SERVICES ADDED'TO. PETALUMA Fitness Day Spa P get' Profession al I Services t�•: :;nay:,.;. =�,:« _ '�=~� II ...;���...: _ aY :;3n .:'.> Personal Services:';x 39�ti r•�. FIGURE 618 IMPORTANCE RATINGS FOR,RESTAURANTS ENTERTAINMENT ADDED TO PETALUMA Other Entertainment w. L'eaC�•$ - dv Movie Theatreri - - •�JSi f' � - a;�R, np a National FulfService Restaurant '.Servi ..'•�^. - '.P 4 ?.: rnF:.+m ,".'.Y 1, � :?'. ���. Local Full Service Resfaurant National Coffee Cafe Fast Food, Local Coffee Cafe Fast Food 6.7.4 TOP DESIRED LEISURE ADDITIONS: Figure 6.18 Indicates that the following entertainment and leisure additions to Petaluma are most desired: ➢Movie Theater ➢Local & National Full Service Restaurants ➢Cafes ➢Entertainment 6.7.5 IMPROVEMENTS TO INCREASE VISITS: Respondents definitely want changes and improvements made to the roads and parking in 'Petaluma, as shown: in Figure 6.19., A wider selection' of stores is also top=of=mind. To a slighter degree they would like an improved atmosphere as well cis the addition of a department store, movie theatre, and discount department store. FIGURE 6.19 TOP CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA Pre ference-s Better Prices Sales Acidbiscount Dept or s ,Store Movie Theatre' AddDepartn(ent'Store wr " ; t _ , 8%a., =! Improve Atm os here P •_ .8°^=' k More VarietySelection V, s<>;-W 23%.; Improve Parking r,4o i• Improve Traffic Roads jo Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 53 6.8 CONSUMER PREFERENCES: DESIRED RETAIL LOCATION, FORMATS AND PRICE POINTS Figures 6.20 and 6.21 illustrate consumer preferences for preferred retail `lo`cations and formats. Highlights of the - analysis include:: ➢ .Almost an ,even balance of preference to add new stores Downtown and close to Highway 10.1. Many said both. ➢ "Streeffront Retail" and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred .shopping formats. ➢ EnclosedMall was also mentioned as a preferred format. Figure 6.22 suggests, the following findings regarding preferred retail price points: ➢ The respondent profile suggest that a balanced variety of value, mid -ranged .and upscale specialty stores .is desired. ➢ Mid -Range :st.ores scored :the highest. This. ,finding suggests'that P.etaluma's'r,etail offering should be enhanced to -add missing •segments. FIGURE 6.20 LOCATION PREFERENCE,OF NEW STORES IN'PETALUMA Don't.Know Downtown ,Both 8% Petaluma a 29 ��a� 33%. Clos, "ghw�, --- „ 30% FIGURE 6.21 j STORE FORMAT PREFERENCE!OF NEW STORES SERVICES -IN PETALUM'A _Specialty Center or Store.Fronf Store "Fron Don't Know t Retail 2°/, 12°/' Ce me r 24% Up: SpE Stores 18%' FIGURE 6.22-. PRICE POINT PREFERENCE OF NEW STORES. SERVICES IN PETALUMA, A Variety Don't Know 8% Value Discount Sa/' anged Stores 26%. Petaluma.Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20044PPage 54 • • 6.9 RETAIL SALES RETENTION & LEAKAGE The final and most significant question of the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that occurs either inside or outside of Petaluma. The resulting analysis is presented in Figure 6.23, which highlights the percentage of spending made outside of Petaluma; in other words the sales leakage. The most significant leakage is occurring for the following categories ranging from 50% to 100% leakage: °Entertainment -Electronics/Computers *Home Furnishings & Accessories *Apparel.and Footwear -Books, Music & Media -Sports, Toys & Hobbies 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% - 50% 4Q°/a 30% 20% 10% 0% The only Comparison Retail categories that are being retained within Petaluma include Specialty Retail and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma appears to be retaining between 60% to 75% of Convenience and Service Retail functions such as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified by respondents confirm the scope of retail voids and opportunities for Petaluma. FIGURE 6.23 x�• .d e( ; , rv: ^nv� - "�?'v.4Y 0'`'-' ;n,.�'k'7"'::'� ::5;•}'. _.�' �::-v,°r,; fit'. a: - Y c �s h d:'' - s•,9 a"?"C •.z�F�'., _ .`r�r� _ _ - - .,:xF; ,' - -- ��iY .y' 7' g ,�a. vhi :��°� f.�µa =�-r; b;';?x� ,- �•, ,'r L. ,gg � Wf � a i.• N q yr. ±i� �i ui - - will �5 • K;t' y n. -, .3•. , . - ...a ,. ...... _. - , _ ,..:,.t, _ -- :ram. `"'a9�^ _...,- .National Restaurants �Qs h O�raA\tanosQas a fe`0ti°0' teG�oe55�ea�J� eyea �, �\e5 �` a0 XG as y F4roG pQ5�'Ile oJ40e Ne 0GGaG G\° 0°0Q e e 4toG°�`a\p� a\Go \al\0�a I Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 55 ti� 7. TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESSMENT 7..1 TRADE. AREA DELINEATION A. retail, trade area was delineated for the City of Petaluma to understand the market potential available to the project as, well as its demographic and spending- nuances.. Figure 7..1 illustrates the P.r,imary (PTA) and Secondary (STA) trade areas for'the City's retail offering. A trade area is 'the geographic region from which the project would draw regular retail patronage from local residents. Typically, approximately 80% of trade area .business originates from the PTA. An additional .20% of the trade area business is typically sourced from the more remote STA. The trade area was delineated using a two -stage approach. A Retail Gravity Model (Huff version) was used to develop an initial estimate of the source of the City's future business, The Gravity Model is a computer algorithm which, examines the distribution of the market population, as well as the , location, size and quality of competitors in order to calculate the city's collective retail offering's anticipated trade area. This initial quantitative approach is modified and -enhanced by information gathered in the field, including: ➢ Petaluma's context in relation to the market including its non -retail generative land uses; ➢ Road and transportation networks, particularly as they relate to drive -time (see Figure, 7.2); ➢ Commuting andemployment distribution patterns; ➢ :Significant natural and man-made barriers; ➢ De facto barriers resulting from notable socio- economic differentiation; and Patterns of residential & commercial development. In addition to people living within .the Trade Area, supplementary retail patronage could be derived from miscellaneous sources, such as the local employee base, Northern California residents living outside the trade area, as well as travelers passing through the area. These sources are currently estimated to 'be a minor source of sales at the project `in relation to the Trade Area's residential base, and are calculated as an additional percentage over base sales. Over time, with the growing 'awareness of the expanded retail and leisure opportunities available 'in Petaluma, these miscellaneous sources of patronage are expected to provide important additional revenues to the project. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 56 ® y 0 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS An analysis was made of the project Trade Area's demographic pro -file to determine the' optimal p p al merchandising program to appeal to the marketplace. Tables 7.1 and 7.2 contain the salient findings from this analysis. An initial investigation of the proj'ect's market was based upon a drive -time analysis. It was determined that over 65,00.0 people reside within a 10-minute drive from Downtown Petaluma. This is somewhat lower than a typical' suburban location, which .will. generally have between 150,000-200,000 people within that radius. However, Petaluma is centrally located along the San Francisco -Santa Rosa axis, which contains. a significant, if dispersed, population base. Nearly 387,000 people live within a half-hour drive of Petaluma. Residents of ,the outer edge of,'a metropolitan area tend to have higher car ownership rates and are less sensitive to drive time in order to fulfill their shopping and leisure needs. As outlined in Section 7.1, a Trade Area is the result of other factors besides drive time. A more sophisticated trade area delineation and analysis took into account competing retail destinations and demographic composition, and many other factors. This analysis revealed that the project's retail trade area is comprised of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000 people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people. The total trade area is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual rate of 0.97%, nearly identical to the national average. 7,.22 a. .FIGURE .,t •:• .nr-. <� - ��, _, Santa Rose . , .. • 1•A - }:i��, .g'.".:dim �..�e�`<- -_ id" __ _ _-:dC•'.^...a" ri. �i�.„q'�.':'!�i�'. _ .t S.;iN,l z:?�.�6F%.: �:�' _ Asshown in Figure 7.3, the PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.539/6 per, annum. The Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 11,0,00 new residents anticipated over the next decade. Also positive, the slowest growing residential districts are located in the low population density STA West, and the more developed (from a retail perspective) STA South. Neither of these geographic areas is expected to provide as much potential patronage at Petaluma retailers as the more rapidly developing STA North and East. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 57 tiN TABLE 7.1 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS BY SUB-AR'EA ` rr , ;..'STJ4SlDUTH : ,.�.".=; FSts WES:a' :.�,,- a.=2•a -�'xf+ -�lriV.OR'TH t"f- a-3x.,ry.j ..Ykar'h, ". `-uT'. .. e"i:.,.. :"�:. - wTS.-.,•� _ n':�'.;AtL�of:-,,US;:_,..�;..,.- DEAAOGRAP,-HICS <e'' -T. r. ,-.y n - �C3:. +,x gip,,. 'bt.:`....-i,x1�i�Y5xd'�`�n. �75TA,,EAST»�,:- .� �,....,, A4S t' F f �•' �d : v'r2. �'`+. . � ,,,^�,.. a... o. � ��- p. � . : ��A',1f.-. ,..-. o-..... r$� ax, i,`.r'•o- r.- .et.L., la w �°'. a.1k".w°y4"#r`_.. xis ,o- ,.�-...., .. Index Index index' Index Index Index ?-_-"+;' Bencktnark " Index POPULATION 2003'Estimate 28;544 0 39;610 0 4,731' 0 75,859 0 35,225 0 54,343 0 , - ,289;939;OSZ;=% '1.00 '201 3 Estimate 31,244 0 48;075 0 4,854 0 84,374 0 38,973 0 54,81,6 0 ;' ?tLL^ '"' ` 323,501;667 100 Avg; Annual Pop. Growth_ 2003-2013 0.83% 81 1.95% 190 0.14% 13 0.98% 95, 0.93% 91-0.04°%, 3 INCOME Average Household Income20013 $76,425 129 $79,447 134 $65,140 110 $63,721) 107 $68,442 115 $96;282 162 Total Household Income '2003'($ Million) $856.46 0 $1,099.37 0 $109.26 0 $1,809.06 0 $987.85 0 $2,047.14 0 Household Income Distribution Less than $35,000 27.80% 69 24.4% 61 21.4% 53 29.5% 73 30.8% 77 1 2.0,o/o 30 $35;000 to $50,000 16.90% 106 15.5% 97 1-2.9% 80 17J % 107 16.4% 102 10:3% 64 $50,000to,$75,000 24.70% 125 28.4% 143 23.2% 117 26.4% 133 215% 119 21.4% 108 $75,000 to $100,060 11709/6 126 16:4% 151 14.7% 135 1 3.9% 128 1 3.0%q 1,20 17.9% 16'4 $100,000 + 16.80% 125 15.3% 114 27.7% 206 13.1% 97 16.261. 120 38.5% 286 LIFESTYLE Average Household�Size 2.55 95 2.86 107 2.82 106 2.67 100 2.44 91 2.56 People Living in Non -Family Households 23.8°% 117 16.7% 82 26.1% 129 26.0%0 128 24.4% 120 21.5% °% of Households'that areSRenters -University . 37:2% 1,23 23.3% 77 '34,0% 1.12 37.1% 122 31.6% 104 28.4% % of Adults with Education 39.1 % 120 37.1 % 114 41.4% 127 39.0% 120 39:6% 122 507% x - ^" '�' � "�• Y`r �� y�Cj ..�`F:'F3�c' , -�i �'&':�.._•. RT� a 96 106 93 =;" . 'F w;30;3% 156 00 AGE PROFILE % Aged 0 to 9 Years 1 2.3% 87 14.8% 105 1 2.8% 91 12;5% 88 1 1',7% 83 12:1 % 86 % Aged 10 to 17 Years 1 i po/o 94 12.7% 108 1 1.1 % 95 12.2% 104 10.46/. 89 10.8'% 92 Aged 18 to 24 Years 7.1% 75 6.8% 72 11.4% 120 11.8% 125 6.81/6 72 5.9% 62 % Aged 25 to 34 Years 12.1 % 88 1 1.8% 86 12.0% 88 12.9% 94 10-5% 77 11.3°% 83 % Aged 35 to 44 Years 17.8% 109 18.7% 115 15.3% 94 17.0% 105 14.9% 91 17.4% 107 °% Aged 45 to 54 Years 18.4% 131 15.8% 113 17.7% 126 16.4% 117 16.7% 1.19 18.1,% 1.29 % Aged 55 to 64 Years 9.3% 107 8.4% 96 9.41/. 108 7.6% 88 10.8% 125 1 1.2°% 129 % Aged 65� Years and Up 12.0% 97 10.9% 86 10.4% 83 9.5% 76 18.1 % 145 13.1 % 105 Source: US Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, Bureau of 'Labor Statistics (1) Index refers to the USA benchmark, with 100 representing the national average. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200age 58 r TABLE 1.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY DEMOGRAPHI^C SUMM'ARY' -> r x,.. .. .. _ .�� _- ..a.,i°:;w z':`+S �«��=?::.:;' F' .. :�i.$"` _. - �:,#1�^'•-. Index Index Benchmark Index POPULATION _ 2003 Estimate 68,158 0 1701165 0 289,939,057 100 2013 Estimate - 79;308 0 182,997 0 323,501,667 16o Avg., Annual Pop. Growth 2003 _20131.49 % 145 0.62 % 60 1.02% 100 INCOME AJe:age'Household Income 2003 $78 1oq 132 ,$75;324 127 $59,152 100 Total Household Income 2003,($ Million) $1,956.27 0 $4,953.69. 0 $6,463,328.70 100 Ho_usehold' Income, Distribution Less than $35;000 25.90% 64 . 23.90% 59 40.00°/ 100 $35,000 to'$50,000 16.20% 101 14.60% 91 16.00% 100 $50,000•to475,000 26.70% 135 24.00% 121 19170 % 100 $75,000; to'$100,000 15.20% 139, 15.00 % 138 10.80 % 100 $,100,000 + 16.00% 119 22.40% 166 13.40% 100 LIFESTYLE Average Household Size 2:72 102 2.59 97 2.65 100 People Living in,Non-family Households 19170% 97 24.20% 120 20.20% 100 of Households that are Renters 29.60% 97 33.00% 108 30.30% 100 % of Adults with University Education 38.00% 117 43.20% 133 32.46% 100 AGE PROFILE Aged O'to 9 Years 13.80% 98 12.20% 87 14.00% 100 %Aged 10 to 17 Years 12.00% 102 1 1.40% 97 1 1.70% 100 %, A'ged 18'to:24 Years 6.90% 73 8.90% 93 9.50% 100 % Aged 25 to 34 Years 11.90% 87 11.90% 87 13.60% 100 °/ Ag"ed,35.to 44 Yedrs 18t30% 1'13 16.60% 102 16.20% 100 %'Aged45ito 54 Years 16.90% 121 17.10% 122 13.90% 100 %,Aged 551to 64 Years, 8:80% 101 9.50% 109 8.60% 100 Aged 65-Yeors and Up 11.40% 91 1 2.50% 100 12.40% 100 • is "P( An ,analysis of income, occupation and education statistics reveals -that the trade area is an affluent white-collar market. Income levels are high (from 1 10% to 162% over the- United States average) as is the level of educational attainment (1 14% to 156% the average). As Figure 7.4 indicates, most households in the project's vicinity will earn. about $75;000 in 2003. There are relatively few of the highest or lowest income segments; with most households in the above -average income category. This homogenous level of income is supportive of retail development, as It is possible to create a destination with near universal appeal across the trade area in terms of price -point and value -orientation. Petaluma Leakage tot Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 59 As Figure 7.5 depicts, the project site is located amidst an area of relatively small' households. Average: household size is generally below .average throughout the `trade area, with the exception of -STA West and PTA East. This household ' profile reflects the greater presence of Baby Boomers in the local market, particularly 45 to 54 year -olds. This important consumer market has strong_ representation in the Petaluma area, at 1 20% of the national average, and is also -the fastest growing age cohort in the Trade, Area. The ,ap,propriate. retail and leisure offering that would. cater, to this age household profile should reflect lifestyle elements and have a strong _representation of offering catering to wellness, travel, self improvement and should emphasize -home accessories, fine dining and recreational activity'. �sallan�C E Finally,: ..,home ownership- levels are slightly above average throughout the Trade Area. Home owners tend to spend relatively higher proportions of their income on home furnishings, home improvement and household durables such as appliances and electronics. It is anticipated that with the continued influx of Baby Boomers to the Trade Area, there will be a continued increase in home ownership levels with a commensurate increase in s"pending on these important retail categories. In summary,, the Petaluma Trade Area demographics indicate, a mature ,and sophisticated market that would be responsive to the introduction_ of additional authentic, lifestyle -oriented retail. and -leisure offering. The market is dominated, by educated, higher' income Baby. Boomers who are entering a phase in the 'lifecycle 'where wellness,, experience and lifestyle play an increasing -role in their shopping and leisure choices. ® Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 60 0 Y 8. TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROFILE 8.1 .PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS The first step in projecting retail' expenditure potential for Petaluma is to determine retailexpenditure on the various categories for the City's Trade Area residents. Table 7.1 summarizes the- per capita annual expenditure across the PTA and STA, and summarizes the detailed tables which appear in the Appendices. Most notably,, residents of the STA have a much higher per capita expenditure on retail and leisure, at, over $10,556 in 2003. This is well above the national average of $7,500. The PTA is also well above average at $9,659. Although household income levels are slightly higher in the PTA, the smaller households and older age profile in. the STA .allow for higher levels of disposable income per person. Although per capita spending differs, the proportion of income spent on retail and leisure is similar between the Trade Area components. PTA residents spend on, average over 33% of their total income on shopping, dining and entertainment. STA residents spend a slightly larger percentage at over 366/o. Approximately 41 % of expenditure in 'the PTA and STA is on "Comparison Goods" and 44% is on "Convenience Goods and Services: Approximately 15% of trade area expenditure is made on leisure activity, including dining and entertainment.(see Figure 7.1). This profile is not reflected in the local retail hierarchy; which is highly skewed towards Convenience retail. • TABLE 8.1 PER ,CAPITA RETAIL/LEISURE EXPENDITURE, 2003: Convenience $4,271 14.88% $4,701 16:38% Alcohol'& Tobacco $65.1 2.27% $706. 2.430/6' Personal Care $243 ' 0:85% $265. 0.91 % Persona I, Services $466 1.62% $506- 1.7461. Pharmacy, $759. 264% $828 2.84% Grocery/Specialty,Food $2,151 7:49% $2,396 8.23% Comparisoni $3,992 1391 % '$4,344, 14'92% Apparel $917 3.19% $997 3:4.2% `. Footwear $223 0.78% $242 0.83% — Home Electronics & Computers $447 1.56% $486 1 .67%'` Home Furnishings& Accessories $532 1.85% $579 .1'.99/o i fi ' Home Improvement & Gardening $325 1 .1.3% $353 1,.21 % y^r Housewares& Small.Appliances $278 0.97% $304 1.04% Jewelery & Accessories $217 o 0.76/a $237 o 0:8d /o ~{: Major Appliances $149 0.52% o _ Multimedia Books-& Music $233, 0:8,1% $254 0.87% Specialty Retail $328, 1.1.4% $357 ° 1.23/a Sporting Goods $128 0.45% $139. 0.48%, Toys & Hobbies $215 0.75% $235 ° 0.,81./0 Leisure $1,395 4.86% $1,511 5.19% Entertainment $140 0.49% $152 0.52% Restaurant & Cafes $1,255 4.37% $1,359 4.67% TOTALEXPENDITURE;556,';' •.'36:49,% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Applied Geographic Solutions, Thomas Consultants Inc. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 61 8.2 AGGREGATE RETAIL EXPENDITURE The following tables analyze detailed spending patterns of trade area residents, and identify the total expenditure potential available for expenditure at Petaluma's collective retail and leisure offering;, This calculation takes into account population and income growth over time. Expenditure potential is. measured for the benchmark years of 2003; .2005; 2007, 2010 and 20.13.- Detailed tables were. prepared for all trade -areas and are; contained .in, the Appendices: Ti4BLE 8.2 'EXP.,EN a. TOTAL' 414'.�":_ A ;,..;.:�,„ a <.�: - zF.• _ -:, ° - x,.: 4- - '„ram'-�°.�,,•,; ...,p>�'�. vat--. ... -.',. ...�;. fir,, ,:.,",. ,-, :.^ i:h• - OTAL,TRAD •: E,A � ` t s... ..». _ .. - a a_2-;,033,�'"�.�;� TOTAL EXPENDITURE $2,352,612,752 $2,432;293,509 $2,514;673;767 $2,593AW748 $2,675,174,046- 1,29% Convenience $1,038,868,428' $1,073,894,226 $1,1'1,0;101,264 $1;150,842,650 $1,193,179,460 1.39% Alcohol',& Tobacco $158,619,840 $163,931,728 $169,42.1,501 $173,937,111 $178,573,076 PersonaUCdre $59,425j.0A $61;470;971 1. - $63;587272 $65,342,769 $67,146,730 1.23% Personal:Se7vices $113,61,6,524 $117,449,941 $121,4L2;696 $ll24;674,748 $128,024;442 Pharmacy $185;242,823 $191,687,100 1.20% $198,355;562 $203;839,629 $209,475;318 1.24% Grocery/Specialty Food $521,964,137 $539;354,486 $557,324,231 $503;048,393 $60%959,894 1.57% Comparison $973,799,165 $1,007,153,440 Apparel $1,041,,650,303 $1;070;251,549 $1,099,638;258 1.22% 5223,546,657 $231,168,495 $239,050,200, $245,597;329 Footwear $5 $252;323,772 1.22% 4;307;518 $56,169,296 $58,094,900 $59,7i01234 $61,370,483 1.23% Home:Electronics & Computers $108,961,488 $112,662;680 $116,489,593 $119,665;952 $122;928,921 1.21% Home Furnishings &Accessories $129,800,287 $134;294,828 $138,945,000 $142,790,081 $146,741,56,9 1.23% Home Improvement &.Gardening $79,231,008 $81,912,726 $84,685,212 $86,969,136 $89;31A,656 1.21%° Housewares '& Small Appliances $67,940,067 $70,297,677 $72;737,098 $74,750,862 $76,820,379 1.24% Jewelery & Accessories $52,966,921 $54,805,335 $56,707,558 $58;304,242 $59,945,882 1.25% MultMajor Appliances $36,365,705' $37,628;192 $38,934,508 $40,01,8,931 $41,131558 1.24% Specialty Retail &Music $56,930,956 $58,834,964 $60,802,650 $62,430,362 $64,1 Oq,648 1 19°/ Specialty Retail $80,076,437 Sporting Goods $82;799;814 $85,615;612 $87,931,727 , $31,185,438 $32,256,961 $90,3j0,288 1.21 /° Toys &Hobbies $33,36'S;300 $34;283,247' $35,226,449 1..23% $52;486,682 $54,322,472' S56,222,472 $57,799,446 $59,420,653 1.25% Leisure a339,945;158 $351,245;844 $362;922,200 $37,2;512,549 $382,356,329 1.220/6 Entertainment $34,116,383 $35,264;328 $36;450,900 $37,424,635 $38,424,382 1.22% Restaurant &Cafes $305,828,776 $315,981,515 $326,471,300 $335,087,914 $343,931,947 1.230/ Source:;8ureau of LaborSfatisfics, Applied Geographic Solutions, Thomas Consultants Inc. a . Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 62 • Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is estimated' to be over $2.35 Billion and is expected to increase to $2.68 Billion by 2013. The PTA represents $659 million (28%) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (72%). Total expenditure is expected .to grow at over 1.29% per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is forecast to. be Convenience,, particularly Supermarket spending, which will grow at 1.57% per annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenditure will grow from nearly $974 million to $1.1 Billion during this time period, while expenditure on Leisure is slated to grow from $340 million to $382 million from 2003 to 2013. In summary, the City of Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development. Per capita expenditure on retail and leisure is well above average in the PTA and STA, at 129% and 140% the national average. Within the PTA, the relatively fast growing population base is anticipated to be bolstered by an influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. This should expand per capita expenditure accordingly. The STA. is not slated to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per capita expenditure, and thus represents a key market segment to entice to the development. FIGURE 8.1 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY EXPENDITURE CATEGORY Entertainment 10/0 Restaurant & Toys & Hobbies Cafes 2% \ 13% Sporting Goods\ \ 'P/o / Specialty Retail. 3% M ajorAppliances 2% Jewelery& I Accessories 2% Housewares,& j Small Appliances-.' 3% Home Improvement and Gardening 3% Home Furnishings & Accessories ' 6% Alcohol & - Tobacco 7% PersonalCare PerVgal Services _ 5% Pharmacy 8% Grocery/Specialty Food 22% Apparel Footwear 10% '2% Home Electronics & Computers 5% C3Alcohol&Tobacco ®PersonalCare ❑ Personal Services ❑Pharmacy ® Grocery/ Specialty Food O.Apparel ® Footwear ❑ Home Electronics & Computers ® Home Furnishings &Accessories ® Home Improvement & Gardening ❑ Housewares & Small Appliances ❑ Jewelery& Accessories ® M ajo r Appliances M M ultimedia Books & M usic ® Specialty Retail ■ Sporting Goods O Toys & Hobbies ❑ Entertainment ❑ Restaurant & Cafes Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 63 8.3 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES OF BUSINESS In addition to the trade area population base,- other important potential sources of business include the local employee base and visitors to the region.' In the case of employees, 'the inflow factor would only include commuter traffic of employees w.or,king in Petaluma but living outside of the Primary and Secondary Trade Areas. Accordingly, this segment is not typically regarded in the retail industry as core expenditure. Table 8:3 Outlines the, number of workers in three key communities within the Trade Area. Most notably, slightly more than 30,000 people .work in Petaluma on a full-time basis. This group of workers -represents a significant market during weekday business hours, particularly for food, and beverage., The market potential available. to Petaluma operators was estimated by , multiplying the number of local .employees: by ty,pical:.weekdayr expenditure. for -American workers (as ,recorded! by the Urban Land Institute). TABLE, 8.3, SONOMA 'COUNTY EMPLOYMENT' STATISTICS ,. CI RAW 'Pl.) :EMPCOYEIIILS� Hansel Dealer.Group,;Advanced PETALUM4 30,480 3.3% Fibre Communications, Cisco Systems, Legacy Marketing Group Agilient Technologies,,Medtronic AVE, St. Joseph Health System; SANTA R_ OSA 74,410 4.0% JOS Uniphose, Sutter Medical Cfr of Santa Rosa, Kaiser Pe-rmanente, Washington.Mutual, Kendall- , JackSo_mV ine Estates NOyATO 26,100 3.3% IFireman's,FundInsurance Seerc•: North Boy Besieess J•um°12003 Beck d Lisle: FIGURE 8.2 AVERAGE DAILY WORKER EXPENDITURE, 2003 Y $ t .00' $ 0.00r Apparel & Footwear Other Non-food Items Food & Beverage Employees based outside of the City were not included in this .analysis, as most workers are unwilling to travel more than 2-3 miles during their lunch breaks. ' The majority of .this expenditures is based on lunch spending. These figures do not include expenditure made either on the way to work or home, and, occurs mostly during the lunch hour. Referring to Figure 8.2, the total expenditure was estimated to be $48.1 million, in 2003. Of this 'the. majority (78%) will be made on Food & Beverage. Less frequent spending will be made on Apparel ($0.65 a day per worker) and Other Non-food Items ($0.93 a day per worker.). It is anticipated that at least half of Petaluma employees live in the city, and in order to avoid double -counting potential expenditure, the total market potential to be SO%, or -$24 million of additional expenditure. Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 64 r r� Retail precincts located near to employment clusters can expect to receive the largest percentage of worker spending,.as this market group is very time -conscious and convenience -driven. Given the heavy food and beverage emphasis of this expenditure ,profile, employees will have a significant impact that is generally restr.icted' to. the Restaurant category. However, this group can also be an important target market for after work activity, particularly for restaurants, bars_, health clubs, supermarkets and pharmacies. Another -major source of potential 'expenditure is 'the visitor market. Tourists spent nearly $667.Million in Sonoma County in 2001. These figures are offset by spending overall in the Wine Country and elsewhere in .Sonoma County. Despite the recent slowdown in the: wider tourist sector., .it is anticipated that the County will continue to be a major attractor for •daytrippers and visitors from further afield, given its natural beauty and 9 y abundance of vineyards and other recreational activity. It is anticipated that outside of .the specialty shops in Downtown Petaluma, a relatively minor percentage of expenditure within Sonoma County is occurring within the City. In addition to capturing a greater share of the local 'tourist market, an enhanced retail and leisure offering -in Petaluma would increase the entire County's destination appeal, particularly for daytrippers from the Bay Area and Northern California. TABLE 8A SONOMA COUNTY PER CAPITA TOURIST SPENDING Eating & Drinking Food Stores I $4.51.,I . Recreation I $27.80I Retail,Sales (Shopping) I $31..96I Tctal'Speriding l $95.141 1 Source. Cdlifornia.Tra 14 Tourism Commission & Division of, Tauriim California Trade &;Commerce Agency. FIGURE 8.3 TOURISM, EXPENDITURE IN SONOMA COUNTY (2001) $250 000 000 ,:,• ' $200,000,000 !:' 4 $150,000,000-.` $100,000,006- $50,000,000' r` $0- Eating & Drinking Food Stores Recreation Retail Sales (Shopping) 32.4% 4.7% 29.2% 33.6% 00.0 % Petaluma Leakage &r Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 65 The fourist expenditure profile indicates a higher than average per capita daily expenditure. While the average American .spends $6.5 a day on shopping, dining andrecreation, visitors h to Sonoma County spend over $95. To recognize this tourism/visitor opportunity, the Southern Gateway to Petaluma (hear. the Petaluma Boulevard South exit ramps with Highway 101) could be enhanced to become the - "Gateway to Wine Country". Accordingly, this node could be; positioned to embrace the "Agr4ourisrn"' culture; offering and lifestyle of Sonoma County by creating 'the "first and- last .chance" for visitors to experience, buy and take- a piece of Wine Country home with them. FIGURE 8.4. POTENTIAL TARGET MAR'KET&($ MILLION) $667 $24 .® $1„690 ® PTA Residents O STA Residents ® Workforce 'Tourists In summary,, however; the -local residential markets, particularly the PTA, represent the greatest sources of potential business for Petaluma's collective retail offering. 'While catering to Sonoma County tourists and local workers is an essential, strategy, the primary focus should be made on the local residential base in and around Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20044 Page 66 . • 0 9. RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE ANALYSIS • An analysis was made of the current trading patterns in Petaluma and its neighboring communities. Data was collected from the California Board of Equalization (BOE) publications on the distribution of taxable sales within the State. By comparing sales data within Petaluma with that achieved by every other major municipality in Sonoma and Napa counties, it is possible to delineate where Petaluma is performing well, and where there may be an opportunity to expand the retail offering. It is not the intension of the is study to address "'Automotive Sales, Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," in which case sales figures for these categories have been netted out of the total reported taxable sales calculation. Similarly, it should also be noted that most Grocery sales are non-taxable and thus not recorded in the taxable sales data.. One important limitation of the° Taxable Sales analysis is the limited number of retail categories collected by the State government. A. direct comparison between the government ,data and commercial consumer expenditure databases requires, some adjustments and modeling assumptions. 'A second limitation of thisapproach; is that key retail categories such as Supermarket/Grocery are dominated by a non- taxable line-up of consumer goods and:therefore measuring retail sales outflow is not possible with this method. However, despite these limitations, a taxable sales anal.ysi's does provide a broad indicator as to the extent and nature of a retail leakage situation. Referring to Table 10.1, Petaluma's taxable transactions reached $341 million in 2001, with the major sales categories of Other Retail Stores ($84.4 million), General Merchandise ($64 million) and Restaurants ($67 million). TABLE 9. 1 - AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES Northxv `South „xa;' .... ` .'`a- East (Petaluma Cot ati Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato j Corte Madera San Rafael _Sonoma f TaxableTransact ions Comparison Retail Apparel Stores $28,201,000 N/A $9,410,000 $107,315,000 $22,369,000 $52;477-,000 $23,495,000 $7,424,000 General Merchandise $63,973,000 N/A $94,681,000 $474,248,000 $164,769,060 $104,342,000 $1.35,710,000 $17,775,060 Homefurnishings and Applianoe $17,086,000 N,/A $3&996;000 $136,170,000. :$11,205,000 $39,932,000 $92,187,000 $8,106,000 Bldg. Matrl. And farm'implements $35;473,000 N/A $102',555,000 $196,967,000 $23,345,000 $20,543,t)00 $213,325;000 $16,443,000 other retail stores $84,804,000 N/A $57,957,000 $405,179,000 $87;934,000 $77,602,000 $200,669,000 $19,260,000 Sub -Total Comparison $229,531,000 N/A $295,599,000 $1,319,879,000 $309;622,000 $294,896,600 $665,386,000 $66,948,000 Convenience Retail Food Stores $50,893,000 N/A $32,876,000 $126,852,000 $31,965 $9,712,000 $52,828,000 $24,974,000 Restaurants $66,787,000 N/A $54,265,000 $180,345,000 $56,253 $27,877,000 $87,951,000 $34,851,000 =;pc<:°i;=;'p.-':', v''>`;;;:<.;,- „`'?::; •-;,';;Tatar $347,217,000 $69,248,000 $382,740,000 $1,627,076,000 $309,710,2181 $332,485,000 $806,165,000 $126,773,000 (1) Based upon 2001 taxable sales data. (2) Category taxable sales are not reported for Cotati due to smaller community size. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 67 As Figure 91 d'emonstrotes, Santa Rosa is the dominant retail cluster within -the Marin/Sonoma area. Its critical mass .of downtown streetfront retail and regional malls attracts over 40% of all expenditure in the market place. San Rafael, at.20%, also attracts a substantial proportion of the local retail expenditure, largely due t'o its strategic location within the Bay Area. Petaluma collects. approximately 9% of all retail sales in the area, indicating that it currently occupies a peripheral strategic position in the local retail hierarchy. However, its nearest neighbors of Rohnert Park and Novato are performing a similar localized role. • 0 FIGURE'9. 1 AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES, 2000 An initial indicator of retail sales leakage is provided by analyzing Taxable 'Sales per .capita. Referring to Figure 9.2, Petaluma had a relatively low,sales per capita ($6,365); in 2000 despite the relatively higher income and expenditure profile of the city described previously: 'Petaluma and Novato display a similar net "retail :leakage profile, while more commercially developed communities such as San Rafael, Santa Rosa and Rohnert Park demonstrate a more balanced profile. FIGURE 9. 2, TAXABLE SALES PER CAPITA,, 2000* $16,000 - '" $14,000 - I $12;000 $10;000 - $8,000- M $6,000- $4,000 - $ 2,000 - `" e San Rafael Novato Santo Rosa Petaluma Rohnert Park * Does not includemuto. sales, fueling or; servicing. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 ' Page 68 O • s • Having assessed the overall level of taxable sales within The source of business (PTA vs. STA) had to be estimated for this Petaluma, a more detailed analysis was performed on individual analysis. Thomas Consultants proprietary database of project retail and leisure categories to determine the particular analogues was used to determine the percentage of a city's, retail opportunities for "the City to stem' sales outflow. Figure 9.3 sales are sourced from the ,PTA and the STA. This breakdown illustrates the estimated sales on a category -by -category basis varies widely by retail category, most notably with Convenience sourced from the PTA. It compares the estimated sales with the retail' experiencing the greatest share of its business from, the local expenditure potential available within the PTA to determine the market and Comparison and Leisure receiving a broader, more aggregate sales outflow (or inflow). The salient fi'ndin,gs are as regional market support. follows: ...,;, .. .....:- :N.{ r estimated sales on a category -by- re Figue 94 Illustrates the Petaluma's.y PyTA sidentsy spent $3"69 million4ort tFie category basis sourced, from the: STA, as well as the expenditure =scategoroes under: study in2001HoweveT;io'nlyA$1W72 msllwn potential available in this area. Retail leakage out of the STA was (47%) wofthese purchases were made>:inah`e C�fy Byticontrast,'' not estimated in this analysis. µ oyer $197`m�llion (53°) "" *p � /o of PTA »re''s'"dents'; expenditure was r; It is estimated that made outside:*of'Petaluma at the City of Petaluma is capturing rn � �n-2001r: �x a a el 7.3/0 or $74 million of the total STA market of ::;;'.: 1.- nya�::,..; in.,„�'' i" -_ 4':A: :""y±: :.:, H„,.:. ...�,,. a. °rv.On-alrnost,,,.d ;„:cafe oriel;-' Petaluman=is. achievin ": acne#` sales $1:09 billion for the retail categories under study. AchievableOU th_ - 30/depending upon themarket shares generally range from 10 ww!!yy _ RestauraM. nts::'-: represent,;ritke_;;"-aar' est,=':er`'enditure`=:" ,cafe retail category, and .this indicates that Petaluma is currently not ..,. " -,' t'''-�•H=N%''` providing desirable retail in a critical mass that is capable of ":included in this -analysts, and this category tlemonstratesF a " µ sub'stential,sales;.outflow,: drawing regular patronage from adjacent communities. >.. �.A Again, the most noteworthy retail categories that represent the. TheA retail categodes°wrth:,tlie;gre t' a nest : retail°sele`s�,*leakages° - <(an�d '.Ftente u tit:"; . intivde,-"?Home_ 'Electronics°`°' strongest opportunities for Petaluma to pursue include Home . Y�... i Electronics Home Furnishings, '• `'�`:� Cinema and Apparel. The low g ;.SCinema.:and:Apparel'f �market share current -�.- I being realized in these categories S "ecialt-;,RetailY �s,.t"he_,.onl;✓A"%:ca#eO' kY-t"te'=maintainR,:a-"stren p"-,:r.i: Y,, : R, - Y- 9. ,Y, ,+,;er . -strong,.;., indicates the greatest opportunity for expansion. In addition the °'"" sales:retention,-w'thin,rihe Cit: Thisr ikel:" ini k6tes the':effect=:" , . Y,v - - restaurant category represents the single largest expenditure "day-' ri ers" ':antlx µ tourists` ' sl'e" an ''`.in:a f zrv,4 t &PI?. -,, t,pp .g, category and also represents a key component of a retail _:-Downtown., '`Peta,lumas `°s ecialt stores �:_ratFi*er°,'ythan ''?an_:` p, ,,,, Y.;,N,,. enhancement strategy. ....:7 ice': -�4Y, _ �cateon".of,,a=;com lete<:,sx"ecial't". w,retail:`"rofl�PanwitFin _ 3i.. _ �4,b `k_ +f:.-G, rz" .::}�.4:,,`` 'S.i•:4.. -_ -- "�"_ Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 69 FIGURE 9. 3 COMPARISON RETAIL SALES & LEAKAGE FROM PRIMARY TRADE AREA (PTA) CITY OF'PETAL,1UMA, 2001 $100,000000 $90,6100,000 TOTAL PTA comp. POTENTIAL =,$369 MILLION $60,000,000 EST TOTAL SALES FROM PTA = $172 MILLION $70,,000,.000 ESTIMATED -COMPARISON RETAIL-LEAKAGE7---$ L97-MILLION— $ '000,000 P-TURE-R A-TE-7--A-- 60 4 7 01r, $50,000,000 --,",--A-EA-KA--G-E -RA--TE-- ;---301' ,$40,00.0,000 $30,000,000 �0 $20,000 '000 $10,000,000 2 r7i $0 N CO IQ, 4, - 01 '01 �0 6 cp PQQ (0: e r ,I- - cp k, 0& 0 C3 ,A Ae opq, ® F:;rt. Sales from PTA Ei PTA,Expenditure Potential m Est. Leakag6 from PTA Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 70 • • FIGURE 9. 4 COMPARISON RETAIL SALES FROM SECONDARY TRADE AREA (STA) CITY OF PETALUMA, 2001 $250,000;000 TOTAL $TA COMP. POTENTIAL = $1.0.9 BILLION. $200,000,000 EST TOTAL COMP. SALES FROM STA = $74 MILLION ESTIMATED CAPTURE RA TE' = 7.3 % $150,000,000 $100,000,000 - An A unan+s, $50,000,000 - = a. 5111 - U: ,i K-L $0 ac°N Ge5 e��co e`' Gey cl ` � �Go �caP \PQQ caGm • G&5 °`PQQ `!rP • o STA Expenditure Potential. ® Est. Sales from STA Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 71 Potential latent retail floor area was calculated by comparing the current capture rate with a target sales capture rate for the PTA and STA. Table 9.2 and 9.3 provide the summary of this analysis for the PTA and STA, respectively: For the PTA, the target sales capture rate of 74% is commensurate with a typical municipal capture rate from its Primary Trade Area. This target figure varies, by category, depending upon the geographic travel behavior associated with each type of good or service.. The analysis indicates that an additional $105 million in sales could be sourced from the PTA if Petaluma were to provide a fully. realized retaif program for local residents. This translates into an additional 366,000, square feet in .new retail space supportable by the PTA residential base. TABLE 9. 2 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA .CALCULATION --PRIMARY TRADE' AREA MARKET COMPARISON4 LEIS&RE•RETAIL: ' Apparel $62,917,1,21 40% ;$37,526,532 60% 70% , $'440'4�1,985 $18,651,396' $275 67,823 Footwear $15;270,914 38% $9,447,431 62% 75% $11,453,186 $5,629,703 $325 17,322 Home Electronics and Computers $30,674,454 38, /0 $19,152,763 62% 70% $21,472,118 $9,950,427 $325 30,617 Home Furnishings and Access. $36;512,281 13% $31,943,782 87% 70% $25,558,597 $20,990,098 $250 83,960 Housewares & Small Appliances $19;108,063 16% $16,062,337 84% 70% $13,375,602 $10,329;936 $275 37,563 Home Improvement and Gardening $22,290,892 I20% -$4,51,1,674 -20% 100% $22,290,892 $0 $225 Jewelery & Accessories $14,882,406 25% $11,118,096 75% 70% $10,417,684 $6,653,374 $500 0 13,307 Major?Applionces $10,242;868 54% $4,661,603 46% 70% $7,170,008 $1,588,743 $225 7,061 Multimedia Books 8 Music $16,009;192 54% $7,298,318 .46% 65% $10,405,97,5 $1,695r101 $275 6,164 Specialty, Retail $22,542,832 93% $1,626,867 7% 1,00% $22,542;832 E0 $275 Sporting Goods $8;771,493 67% $2,927,826 33% 65% $5,701,470 ' $0 $275 0 Toys andHobbies $14 ;774,192 25% '$11,128,428 75% •65% $9;603;225 $5,957,461 $250 0 23,830 Restaurants& Cafes - $86,140,768 54% $39;389,868 46% 75% 464,605,576 $17;854,676 $450 39,677 Theaters/Cinema/Entertainment $9,603,326 0% .$9,603,320 100% - 60% $5,76Y,992 $5,,761-,992 $350 38,413 TOTAL $369,740,736 47% $197,375,498 53% 74% $274,401,141 $105,062,906 $287 365,738, !Illh2.y°hU , I'➢l 111 Note: Based upon 2001 annual taxable sales e Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 72 0 For the STA, the analysis indicates that an additional $1 29 million in sales could be sourced from the STA if Petaluma were to provide a critical mass of appealing retail and leisure to the regional residential base. This translates into an additional A73,000 square feet in new retail space supportable by the STA residential base. TABLE 9. 3� . POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL. FLOOR AREA CALCULATION - SECONDARY TRADE AREA MARKET STA.UNCAPTURED.SAL'E&1AND POTENTIAL POTENTIAL ESTIMATED PETA'LUMA'S -.., TARGET=STA .-,ADDITIONAL NEW RETAIL SALES - TOTAL•STA, '' CURRENT'OW': SALES TARGET SALES SALES FOR PERFORMAN POTENTIAL EXPENDITURE =- CAPTURE,OF STA ` CAPTURE FOR-PETALUMA ',PETALUMA FROM GEGPER SO. LATENT RETAIL POTENTIAL EXPENDITURES RATES, FROM;STA STA F.T./YR., FLOOR AREA. COMPARISON & LEISURE RETAILS Apparel Footwear Home Electronics and Computers Home Furnishings and Access. Housewares & Small Appliances Home Improvement and Gardening Jewelery & Accessories Major Appliances Multimedia Books & Music Specialty Retail Sporting Goods Toys and Hobbies Restaurants & Cafes Theaters/Cinema/Entertainment $160,607,085 7% 26.1 % $39,031,21 3 6% 25.0% $78,276,126 6% 25.4% $9.3,274,706 2% 29.5% $113,896,286 1% 20.9% $56,932,076 20% -20:3% $38,079,203 4% 23.7% $26,119;067 90/0 18.40% $40,916,168 9% 10.7% $57,525,39.9 16% 15.5% _ $22,410,793 1 1 % 12.3% $37,707,117 4% 13.7% $219,657,207 9% 11.9% $24,509,591 0% 30.7% TOTAL $1,008,941,977 7% 20.1% $41,918,449 $31,036,768 $275 112,861 $9;757,803 $7,262,025 $325 22,345 $19,882;136 $14,944,268 $325 45,982 $27,516,038 $25;558,110 $250 102,232 $23,804,324 $22,499,038 $275 8.1,815 $11,557;211 $70,398 $225 311 $9,024,771 $7,41'1'1,495 $500 14,823 $4,805,908 $2,413;938 $225 10,729 $4,378,024 $644,792 $275 2,345 $8,916,437 $0 $275 - $2,756,528 $252,099 $275 917 $5,165,875 $3,603,405 $250 14,414 $26,139,208 $6,103,108 $450 13,562 $7,524,444 $7,524,444 $150 50,163 $203,147,156 $129,323,888 $274 472,500 Note: Based upon 2001 annual taxable sales. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 73 In summary, the retail leakage analysis indicates a demand for approximately 888,000 square feet of additional. floorspace warranted for Petaluma. This additional space could"generate approximately $234 million per year in sales and $M4'million in sales tax revenues to Petaluma..App'arel, Home Ele-ctronicsj Home Furnishings, Housewares & Small Appliances and .Cinema represent the largest categories for development. Conversely, more specialized categories such as'. Toys and Hobbies, Books, Jewelery, 'as well as Home Improvement would comprise a smaller amount of.new-development. Restaurants and Cafes, a"major expenditure category,. are currently achieving a moderate sales -retention, and as such it is expected that a relatively small amount -of new floorspace for this' category is warranted: TOTAL NEW SALES. $234 MILLION/YEAR TOTAL NEW FLOORSPACE OPPORUNI:TY. 838;000 SQ FT Restaurants-& Cafes 53;240 Toys and Hobbies Specialty Retail• - Sporting Goods 917 Multimedia Books & Music / 8,509 Major Appliances 17,790—,"' Jew eleiry &Accessories 28,130 TOTAL POTENTIAL Home Improvement°and NEW RETAIL SALES Gardening - -TAX. REVENUE $2:34 MILLION/YR A - Housewares &.Small. Appliances 11.9,378 FIGURE 9.5 TOTAL LATENT FLOOR -SPACE OPPORTUNITY Theaters/Cinema/Entertainment, 88,576 84 Footwear 39,667 ome Bectronics and Computers 76,599 Home Furnishings and Access, 186,193' isPetaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 74 0 10. *TAIL POSITIONING RECOMMENDATIONS & STRATEGIES 10.2 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY 10.1 MARKET SHARE/CAPTURE RATE METHODOLOGY A market share/capture rate methodology was utilized to project .the optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters (as identified in Section _2).' This methodology involves applying realistic market capture rates against the Primary and Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each retail category in each individual retail cluster: The end result is. a detailed Retail Trade Area Market Share/Capture Rate - matrix table, as illustrated in the Appendices. This Appendix table balances the available trade area retail market expenditure opportunity amongst the various retail clusters, such that no one cluster absorbs all of the retail demand and that different clusters are positioned differently, in order to complement one -another. In other words, if one retail cluster absorbs more than its share in retail capture, it could have an adverse affect on other clusters. The market capture rates should not be viewed as actual performance figures, but rather as a planning tool to guide the optimal complementary target capture rates, sales and. retail mix for each cluster. Accordingly_ , the purpose of the Retail Positioning 'Recommendations and. Strategies is to provide the appropriate role and function for each retail cluster to ensure that clusters do not duplicate and "cannibalize one another, but rather complement one -another. The detailed category -by - category market share/capture rate analyses for each of the retail clusters are contained in the Appendices. Overall, based on the retail capture rate methodology, .the analysis in the section of the report indicates, that with the complementary and optimal retail positioning and mix recommended for each of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as 2.31 million sq. ft. of vibrant retail functions within Petaluma. Table 10.1 and Figure 10.1 illustrate the optimal retail mix for Petaluma.. If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sq. ft. is subtracted from this total demand estimate, 'the analysis indicates there is a-n opportunity to add up to 1.117 million sq. ft: of new retail functions. This retail space,could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per .annum in retail sales for all of the Convenience, Comparison and Leisure.cdtegories. Of this amount, the sales and mix of potential_ retail capture for Petaluma would be as follows: • $279.6 million/yr for Convenience Retail • $391.4 million/yr on Comparison Retail • $104.1 million/yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants Considering the current estimated Comparison & Leisure iretail capture is approximately $246 million/yr, the above figures .suggest 'an almost $250 million lift in Comparison Retail and Leisure sales;. in other .words a doubling. 10.3 POSITIONING OF PETALUMA'S :RETAIL. INDIVIDUAL RETAIL CLUSTERS Using the, methodology described above, the targeted retail demand opportunity, recommended positioning and optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters was generated. Table 10.1 and Figures 10.2 and 10.3 show the targeted retail demand opportunity for each retail cluster, to illustrate the differences of positioning for the various retail clusters. Figure 10.4 illustrates the distribution of the recommended retail positioning types in a structure diagram. Figure 10.2 summarizes the recommended retail positioning for each retail cluster. The following subsections provide profile sheets to highlight retail planning directions and recommendations for each retail cluster. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 75 TABLE, 10. 1 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX/ALLOCATION BY RETAIL CL USTER r. -U YY a. 7 5� -N x Q: V 20 z ........ .4 Cl '0. 0 7� :E 0 Z 3: �,4 CATEGOR 0" Y=Z Alcohol & Tobacco '�"574;S68 YO 7,066, 11,624 8,047 14,530 14,363 9,990 5,064 3,884 Personal Care 21,896 11,172 4,742 15,904 14,516 10,954 4,328 Personal Services - 4,569 41;915 18,715 9,073 8,482 33,167 21,437 15,175 9,893 5,067 8,482 Pharmacy 16,080 13,911 6,156 27,013 16,057 15,507 4,984 Grocery/Specialty Food 4' -5,652 12,912 % 35;890 1 43;673 47,641 43,753 4 52,588 Apparel 14,964 48,676 48;262 75,952 73,148 49,069 13,772 2,711 3,779 Footwear7 3,148 1 - 0,189 11,749 15;988, Home Electronics & Computers 14,124 10,519 3,692 1,304 27,3 8,558 94,282, 6;768 13,78A 4,000 Home Furnishings & Accessorii es '4 191 j 15,276 34,299 64,758 13,986 33,173 9,034 .22,658 Home'limprovement & Gardening x 8,124 43,249 70,558 28,487 Housewares & Small Appliances o 10,874 19,157 54 13,296 19,580 13,521 36,153 - Jewelery & Accessories . .. ... 41982 5,769 5;702 7;355 7,507 5,005 1,279 1,262 Major Appliances ;:53 1182j� - 25,366 - .,',2 3% 1 14,521 3,294 Multimedia Books & Music 13,981 18,177 8,487 3,827 4,756 Specialty Retail 56;170 15,828 17,009 11,802 SA 7,027 3,875 4,780 9;359 porfing Goods 3,040 15,305 8,707 3;695 Toys & Hobbies 3;830 5,806 27,477 11,900, EntertainmentA,697 57,513 21;695 9,901, Restaurants and Cafes 2 42,313 43,072 25,999 3,04-A I8,1S2 5;969 1,6;810 15,268 4;903 7,154 4,222 13,885 ' - 227,; 2;3ii' PEfAlLUMATaTAL-,' �a 900 oq"03509 T ;,-37,777. • Petaluma Leakage. &Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 age 76 06 1p Toys E Sporting, 1 0/ Specialty Re 5% Multimedia Books_ & Music 2% Major Appliances 2% Jew elery & Accessories 2% Housewares & Sm Appliances 5% Home Improv Garder 7% FIGURE 10..1 PETALUMA - OPTIMAL AGGREGATED RETAIL MIX Alcohol & Tobacco Restaurants and Cafes . 3% )rsonal Services 7% Grocery/Specialty Food 11%. pparel 14% Accessories Home — Bectronics & O70 8% Computers 6% Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 77 FIGURE 10.2 ALLOCATION OF FLOORSPACE.OPPORTUNITY BY RETAIL CLUSTER (DISTINCTIONS OF RETAIL POSITIONING) 350,000 300,000 Uj V Q 250,000 a 4A 200,000 O LL. 150,000 100;000 — O 50,000 — pp g'r k. 1 0 Q& y0� 4r C9 ? 0 Qp� G,�O �� 1�® asunattrs O Convenience ® Comparison ® Leisure, ^ R 01 Of' yP e �J Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 78 ' FIGURE 10.3 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING POSITIONING STRATEGY LAND USE DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL* RETAIN. AND, ENHANCE FOOD.AND BEVERAGE,=SPECIALTY RETAIL AND ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USE COMMERCIAL* REDEVELOP WITH MIXED=USE STREET -ORIENTED LIFESTYLE RETAIL".. AT GRADE RESIDENTIAL OR OTHERI',��'. ABOVE, TO FRAME AND BALANCE EAST SIDE OF RIVER_ AS PA_ RT`OF DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY/TOURIST COMMERCIAL' ASSEMBLE AND DEVELOP AE REGIONAL LARGER'FORMAT RETAIL NODE TO INTRODUCE MISSING RETAILERS OF'REGIC HIGHWAY/COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL* ENHANGE,EXISTING PETALUMA PLAZA AND WASHINGTON SQUARE.PROOPERTIES.WITH ; ADDITIONAL,CRU, BABY BOX AND RESTAURANTSAND INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL APPAREL RETAILER WITH ADJACENT RELATED CRU'S COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL* ENHANCE CONVENIENCE AND _ SERVICES AND INCORPORATE `} HEALTH AND WELLNESS *ZONING DIRECTION INFILL/ ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT MIX'OF LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET -ORIENTED_" RETAILERS -IEW DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT NATIONAL AND EGIONAL RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION/ REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR'DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED'WITH A BYBRID'OF "BABY'BOX" RETAURANT AND,.A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT ` SUPERMARKET AND PHARMACY ' ANCHORED WITH'BLEND OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June lUU4 Page 79 FIGURE 10.4 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES vl' Northern Gateway P V01 b"t, e C umces entral am "A J 'ashtn -gron WetaircIorridor RETAIL SITES' I Dowtbwh Z % 1 2. Golden, Eagle Ail M, 2, - 3. Fairgrounds rt 1, 1 4. P Plazas 5. Washington Square ..gnwcty�z�?,- -tdtid r. 6. 68L/Rainier 3 Ae �7. Pefoluma Village, Factory Outlets $.* Redwood Center Td`U r*' 1" 9. 0ihi/Orchard Plaza C11 -Two 10. G&G Site Oriehfqtioi�,, 1,. Petaluma Gateway Spa12. Lakeville Highwo)*1 .uma 7• 5, 13. Yardbirds Plaza V, C:) 14. Arroyo Center ov MAP KEY 1 ,ey Hi 'T as L 11 Highway Commercials. Al outhern "Galewa Downtown. ommercial/Mixed-Use 4 ,Down wn!�', to, y .,I. .;poi tOu He Strip Commerical 4 c,<rt�y C16, -- Community Commercial e 01 Tourist Commercial park: W I 111101111IM1101111111IIIUU .LIL IIIIAL . ..... . Petaluma Leakage,& Sustainable Retail: Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 80 • 10.4 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL POSITIONING &'STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning) & Format ❑ Organic Mix of. Specialty Retail, Community Services & Conveniences, Restaurants & Entertainment. ❑ Streetfront Retail. Format. ❑. Total of 340,000 to 360',000 sq. ft. Anchored BY: • Multiplex Cinema • Entertainment • Restaurants • Antiques & HOme Accessories • Specialty Grocery Store Retail Mix • Local Specialty Retail & Gifts • Antiques & Home Accessories • Local Cafes & Restaurants • New & Used Books • Personal Care & Services Infill Opaortunities Zonina Direction ➢ Downtown Commercial Development Direction Retain &r enhance food & beverage, specialty retail & entertainment. • Gallery Shops • Fine Dining Restaurants • Riverfront Dining & Outdoor Seating • Casual Eateries • Live Jazz 'Lounge Site Strenaths/Weaknesses + At the cross roads of historic Petaluma. + Active mixed -use and .r•i.verfront setting. ±- Petaluma is congested with vehicle traffic. - Currently back is turned to riverfront. - Lacks exposure from Route 101. • TABLE 10.2 PROJECTED SALES,& TARGET CAPTURE'R'ATES CATEGORY (200.3)``s`.' .`'' : • 1 = 1>_. `t . , .'._-: ;TARGET ii LES BY.ORIGINTOTAL.TRADE:; 1 _„ `'.1;AREA • `• - I PTAV::'I:. RACAPfUREl;x :'�STA'"Y J,,sfA CAVNRE SALES' p:TTA CAPNRE •_ CONVENIENCE'.1,Rs';+Wn=,'E;::vcaX',°'; ::S40.S¢7:AB{ is�w".'tini3.9.'A'`-a.'.-'_5.5.7Z4.815,a�,•'a ye;}4�'®S%=¢N;Z86iWi :; �..: ,'.r4:3% Alcohol B Tobacco $3,971;173 8A9%S260,394 0.2% $4,239,568 2.71/6 Personal Care, s3,710.801 22.29/6 $668,480 1.6% S4,379,281 7.4% Personal Sew- $7',105,848 22.2% $1,277096 1.6 % 58,382,944 7.4% Pharmacy $7,615,994 150% $626,153 0;5% $8,442,147 4.616 Grocery/Specialty, Food $17,957,668 122% $884,423 0.291. $18,942,091 36% Apparel S3,701.521 596/ $189,097 '01% $3.890.618 - .17% Footwear $898'417 5.9% $45.964 0.1 % $944,381 1 7 % Home Electronics & Computers '$0 0 0 % $0 0 0% $0 0 0% Home Furnishings & Accessories $2,631,302 72% $1,569.539 1.7%-S4,200,840 - ^3.2% Home Improvement & Gardening p 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0 0 % Housewares & Small Appliances $Z235,380 5.0 % $754,917 0 7% $2.990,298 1 9 % Jewelery, B Accessores $1,785:889 12.0% $705.138 1.9% $2,491.027 1.9% Major, Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0 % $0 0 0% Multimedia Books & Music $3,201,838 20 0% $992,505 ,2 4 % $4.194.343 7.4 % Specialty Relao $11,27,1,416 50.0% S2771,025 4.8% $14,042,441 17.5% Sporting Goods $0 0.0% $0 0 0 $0 00% Toys & Hobbies, $786,537 5.3% $266,701 0.7 % $1.053,238 ,2 0% Entertainment $3,361,162 35.0% $5,265,737 2L5% $8,626;899 25.3°/ Restaurant & Cafes $14:820,253 17.2 % $4,220.527 1 9% $19,040,780 .6.2 % TOTALSALES. <.'t i><`_-J::;is:"`.r :_ ,.fas2ss ss�`3s' ,'.12.4%1:1''fzosusees�Ord^::f�nsa$o:easl:",°.,= �.rc TABLE 10.3 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR, AREA (IN SQUARES FEET) ' CATEGORY-- :- `;,>a .: ",na,<;'d °%;of •' 2003: r'" '2005.;::„ a„> c:a ==2008(( 2010_-- '2093 p; -'7y,��', _ - ^.::h: - CONVEtdIEtiCE, „ .i0 4. 2W''� " _ 70 Alcohol B Tobacco 2.0 % 7.066 7,217 7,369 7,359 7,344 Personal Care 6.39/6 '21,896 22:376 22.866 22,854' '22,837 Personal Services 12.1 % 41,915 42.808 43,711 43,668 43,607 Pharmacy 4.6% 16,080, 16,474 16,874 16458 '16,834 Grocery/Specialty Food 10.4 % 35.890 36,602 37.550 37.977 38,629 •t•Ti4l�frll:�'L•lii� 1-•le a.,,=��-a.._ � �_,� ity.:re '�r.�rryL• �s�e,ra.�:Y2: '.�rl:Ali..ss,�.t.Yl•tir1a:�-'Y�•ati'E 4ppare1' :1 r3% 14,964 15,281 15,602 15,589 15.569 Footwear 0.9% 3,148 3,215 3,284 3,282 3,279 Home Electronics & Computers 0.0% - - _ _ Home Furnishings & Accessories 4 4 % 15.276 15,533 15,796 15.793 15,788 Home Improvement & Gardening 0.0% - _ _ _ Housewares & Small Appliances 3.1 % 10,874 11:114 11,353 11.335 11,309 Jewelery& Accessories 1 4% 4,982 5,090 5,200 5,195 5.189 Major Appliances 0 0% - - _ _ Multimedia Books & Music 4 0 % 13,981 14,278 14,573 14,550 14,516 Specialty Retail 162% -56,170 57,410 58,641 58.534 58,377 Sporting Goods 0.0% - - _ _ . Toys & Hobbies 1.1% 3.830 3,906 3,986 3.988 3,991 t 1 Entertainment 16.6% 57,513 58,453 59,372 59.275 59,133 Restaurant & Cafes 12.2% 42.313 43,120 43,921 43.852 43,753 TOTAL'FLOORSPACEe _`,':.":'>,";z'»� ":'i,:"1'7 1^il00.0%I':'"•345.897-;i:,'1�'.°;352,878.':"",-^'360;098:f':'+ 380,109Mi:":'S60,155� Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 81 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix % Canture Rate Cabture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 35% 1 3.9% 0.5% $44 million, Comparison Retail 36% 8.8% 1.0% $34 million Restaurants '& Leisure 29% 19.0% 3.9% $i2& million Total 100% 12.4% 1.2% $1.06 mil Phasina/Timing Immediate over 1 to 3 year horizon. Implementation. Layout '& Streetscape Strateqies L. Basin Street projects -anchored, by Multiplex Cinema should 'be complemented by a Brew Pub Restaurant, Fine Dining & Cafe Style Restaurants, as well as smaller Lifestyle'Retail tenants. 2. West Bank, of River should infill with -frontage: of Restaurants & 'Cafes. City's RDA abilities should continue to be utilized to facilitate infill and improvement projects. 3. Street level of Basin Street projects should have'retail frontages. 4. River, Boardwalk should have outdoor seating for adjacent restaurants. 5. Better exposure &. linkage between Copp.erfield Books and Downtown Square should be created with doors and windows. 6. Some antique shop, spaces on key corners could be excellent locations for restaurants and cafes, should they become available. Direct Economic Impacts • $106 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. $1.1 million in ;Sales. Tax Revenue to City/year. 1,,038 Total Direct -Employees (of which 138 are New Employees). Target sales performance of $306 psf/yr. Taraet Market & Inflow Seaments PTA &,STA Residents; Downtown Employees & Day Trip Tourists. oil . Moderate. to Upscale price points. 0 0 FIGURE 10.5. PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS .& CONVENIENCE1 LEISURE RETAIL i 29% $28 M -- -,.- �. _.... 35% $44 M RETAIL 36% $34 M = FIGURE 1.0.6 OVVIEW- by rr Taraet Tenant Profiles Pyramid Brewing, H2O Plus Panero Bread L'Occitane Gordon Biersch Ben &,.Jerry''s • Kufeto's - � Steve Madden Shoes Great, Harvest Papyrus Plump Jack Restaurant Hdagen Daaz Coppold Cafe Franklin Covey GNC Zales Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 82 • 10.5 REVELOPED GOLDEN EAGLE & STATION SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING A STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Mix of Local; Regional & National "Street -Oriented" Retailers; Restaurants & Entertainment. 0 Mixed -Use StreetfrontILifesty'le Retail 'Format. ❑ 'Total. of 300,000' to 320,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv- • Lifestyle Apparel • Home Furnishings & Accessories • Restaurants Live Entertainment Multimedia Books 8r Music Retail Mix • Local & National Specialty Retail • Personal Care & Services • Pharmacy & Specialty Grocery' (nearby at Longs and Whole Foods) Other Redevelopment Opportunities • Art Gallery Stroll • Cultural Row • Riverfront Dining & Outdoor Seating • Short'term Street Parking • Long Term Parking Structure • Performing Arts Center Zonina Direction Mixed -Use Commercial Develoament Direction ➢ Redevelop with Mixed - Use Street Oriented Lifestyle Retail at grade with residential, boutique hotel or other uses above, to frame and balance east side of river as part of Downtown. Site Strenaths/Weaknesses + Active Downtown mixed -use/riverfront setting. + Considerable.siied contiguous Downtown parcel. - Existing Golden Eagle Center buildings need to be redeveloped & owner motivated to do so. - Currently back is turned to ,riverfront - Lacks exposure from Route 101,.. TABLE 10:4 PROJECTED SALES k TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY(2003);::r:."e,''` : "Wr=f` s:TnricEr.siiFse"v" ^;' TOTai'. PTA ;�;. "PTwCMTIptE" AV-iiA 6APTURWAREA 'SALES I`_-TTA CAPrURE.i ,. -.., .. ...__. i28:4M.2ft Alcohol 8'Tbtiaccc 86:706,140 15.0% $268.394 0'2% $6.974,535 44 Personal Care _$1,484320 '819% $749,983 1.8% $2.234,303 38% Personal Services $2.329,607 7 3% $1 413.312 1'.7 % $3:742,919 3.3 % Pharmacy $4,629,396 8 9% $2,673,965 2 691. $7_303 361 3.9 % Grocery/Speccalty Food $7,356,853 5 0% $860,246 0.21/6 $8:217,099 1 6 Apparel $3,775,027 - 60% $8,880,801 55% $12,655,829 :5'.79/6 Footwear $898.417 5.9% $2,158,191 55% $3,056,607 569;6 Home Electromcs 8Computers - $1.840,467 '60% $940.726 12% $2:781,196 2.6% . Home Furnishings B Accessories $3,973,503 10.9% $5.458,698 59% $9:432.202 .7-3% Home1mprovement 8 Gardening $0 0 0% $0 0 0% $6 0 0% Housewares 81Small Appliances $2.235,380 .5.0% $3.032,843 2 7 % $5,268,223 3.3 % Jewelery B Accessories $744:120 5.0% $2,140,229 5 fi % $2,884,350 3 3% Major Appliances r $0 0:0% s0 0 0% $0 0 0 % Mulumi dia Books 8 Music $4,002;298 25 0% $1.450.673 3:5% $5,452:970 9 6% Specialty Retail $2.254,283 100% $1',702,635 3.09/6 $3,956:918 4'9% Sporting Goods ,5701:719 78:0% $134,295 0.6°/ $836,014 2.7% Toys B Hobbies $738.710 5.0% $857,852 2.3% $1.596,562 3.0% Entertainment $1,440,498 15.0% $1,723,722 70% $3.164.220 9.3 % Restaurant 8 Cafes $6.029,854 7 0 % $13.352,666 6 1 % $19,382,520 6.3 TOTAL"' SALES`:::.:'::: :°".„=:'=',:',,; .,:<"'1"'$51:140,5941'-f;,_ 7.4%1 `,-447,7".2341:<'•:;.i::2-7%1 Atses3sszel^."+:f*1::: 4.0%I TABLE 1.0.5 RECOMMENDED RETAIL.MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) '1.11x%•ri.;a- G tTobacco . 8.,0 Alcohoolt 3 11624 11,898' :12,168 . 12,141 12,102 Personal Care 3.7% - 11.172 1,1,390 11,810, 11,600 11,585 Personal Services' :6_t% 18,715 '19,090i 19,462: .19,430 1%382 Pharmacy 4.6% 13,911 14,187 14,466 14:456, 14,442 Grocery/Specialty Food 5,1%" 15,652 16,011 46,466' ,16,633 16,888'" tc.ytl,t�_r:,�.Y.�:krfi�:«�`.`�- _ ` ��--�..r.y.�:s9.'+�el':1:1t�:YrrWi:f.k �f:►kirt°�_ri.4d:�i1�1':yir Apparel 160% .48B76 49,37.W 50,059( 49,977' 49.857 . Footwear '3.3% 10;189 10.328' 10,465 16,452' 10,435 Home Electronics 8 Computers 2.8% 8;558 '8,707 8.850 8,826, 8,791 Home � Furnishings B Accessories 113% 34,299 34.85T 35.411 35,368 35.306 Home Improvement 8 Gardening 0.0 % - - - _ _ Housewares 8 Small' Appliances 6.3 % 19.157 19,470 19,774 19.738 19.685 Jewelery 8 Accessories 1 9% 5,769 5.853 5,935 5.928 5,916 Major Appliances 00% - - - _ Multimedia Books 8 Music 60% 16,177 16.540 18.897 18,858 18,801 Specialty Retail 5.2% 15,828 16,110 16.387 16,355 16,309 Sporting Goods 1 0% 3,040 3,112 3.184 3,180 3,175 Toys 8 Hobbies 1.9% 5,806 5,909 6,012 6,004 5,994 Entertainment I fit 21.095 21.456 21',808 21.769 21,71D Restaurant 8 Cafes 14.1% 43.072 43,684 44,261 44.157 44,003 ITOTALF.LOORSPACE:'z�a:; =' �'.': _''-t''. 7� :.i.� phi ^��i�r.100:0%I .%^ r304;T37?i�� a.1 °309.981`??�"• 0 315;214' :`314:873.)'%.Js 314;379:� Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 83 REDEVELOPED. GOLDEN EAGLE & STATION SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) FIGURE 10.7 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target. CONVENIENCE Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 23% 7.7% 1.0% RETAIL $28.miIlion Cotripa0ison, Retail 56%. 7.1 % 3.5% $48 million 23%$28...M_.� Restaurants &. Leisure 21 % 7.8% 6:2% $23 million Total 1006/0 7.4% 2.76/o $99 mil Phasina/Timing Immediate over 2 to 5 year horizon: Implernentation/Lavout'& Streetscape Strategies 1. An internal street system with a "pedestrian=friendly" streeti which offers short term angle or parallel parking should be the spine. 2: A parking structure could be built using RDA and TIFF 'funds, to anchor the East side of the river and balance Downtown. 3.. City could ,reserve a site for .the .creation, of a Performing .Arts venue. 4. East Bank should develop with frontage of. Restaurants &,C-dfes. 5. Enhance bridge linkage(s) between the East and West Banks._ 6. City's. RDA abilities should continue to be utilized to facilitate redevelopment of Golden Eagle site and to consolidate other properties. Direct Economic Impacts • $99 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. • $1 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year. 912 Total Direct Employees (of which 687 are New Employees). Target sales performance of $325 psf/yr. Target Market &. Inflow Segments PTA 8i S'TA Residents, Downtown Employees & Day Trip Tourists. • -Moderate to Upscale price points. Ta cietTenant Profiles 11 Fornaio; Williams Sonoma. Talbots Redwood Room' 'Rodizio Grill • Z Gallerie Laura Ashley Martini House PF Chang's 'Sur Ia. Table Christopher Banks • Barnes & Noble FIGURE 1 SITE OVE RESTAURANTS & LEISURE $23- M COMPARIWN RETAIL 56% $48 M Pocking in' Middle "\ Petaluma.Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 84 10.6*ENILWORTH & FAIRGROUNDS SITE : RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positio'nina &. Format ❑ Regional 'Destination Power Center: ❑ Large .Format &` Baby Box Retail:, ❑ Total of 400i000 to .420:;000,sq. ft. Anchored. Bv:- Zonina Direction • Home Electronics/Computers ➢ Highway Commercial • Home.Furnishings -Accessories • Pad Restaurants Develoament.Direction Retail Mix ➢ Assemble and develop • House & Home as ,a Regional Large • Value & Mid -Priced Apparel Format Retail Node to • Appliances introduce missing • Toys, Hobbies & Crafts retailers of regional • Sporting Goods proportion. Kev Retail Develooment .Opportunity This site is at Petaluma's most important interchange of Washington Street with Highway 101. In conjunction with Washington Street, this interchange forms the gateway and approach armaturefor Downtown. Accordingly, to complement Downtown and stimulate regional attraction and cross -shopping within Petaluma, this is seen to be the best location for a "Regional Large Format Retail Destination within Petaluma. Site Strenaths/Weaknesses + Large linear exposure & -frontage to Hwy 101. + Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street & to region via Hwy 101 interchange. - + At geographic center of Petaluma. + Gateway to Downtown Petaluma. + Washington Street is already established as City's retail corridor. Potential traffic capacity issues along Washington Street. - Interchange of Washington Street & Hwy 101 may become congested. i TABLE 10.6 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY;f2003' ",,. ".,' •>'. _ \ . ,-..„;€rorac.iRaoE;,."_ I,W�x< •-'tr .:fa-TARGELSALES BY ORIGIN•7-,'-z`a •.;%�.', ':I _I �^ ql-''.`"8-'ai�c�Prurte:•isr;:^I...--.'.,,STA.±-:,.i1;si�:ui4uee: -I AREA SALES I� �c.v>•uaE?: CONVENT NCE:�Si.:-v,'�.-',=a=_•,,v'il,;; �t:e�: v:a;�.�.,:� ei .......,.._..............%-tawF:�.,eL.�.&•'�'ar.�.,�:.�:.,,k�'..aiE�202,619 2:i,,::�'�«rt:`�a:�c.r,�.a:. ?°� ,�;. �_ Alcohol B ,Tobacco $2.235,380 5 wi $2,592; 713 2.31/6 $4.828.094 `3.0% Personal Care $501',238 3ko $447.229 ' 1.0% $948:464 - 1.6 % Personal Services $960.061 3'.0% $854.543 1.0% $1,814,603 16 Pharmacy $1.563,799 3.0% $1.668.685 1.3 % $3.231;884 1 7% GrocerylSpecialty, Food $2,942,741 20% $3,836,192 1.6% $6,778,933 1 3% Apparel. $4,404,198 7.09/6 $8,143,812 5!1% $12,548;011 Footwear $1,527,091 10.0% $1,997,525 5 7 % $3,524',616 :6 59/6 Home Electronics & Computers $14,432:408 47r1 % $16,209:131 20 7% $30,641,539 28.1% �Home ,Furnishings&'Accessories $7.302,456 200% $10,506.061 113% $17=808;517 137% Home,lmprovement&Gardening $1,114,545 50% $713.295 1.31/6 $1,827,840 2.3% Housewares &'Small Appliances $11.176.901 25.0% $12.963,567 11.4 % $24,140.468 152% Jewels ry'& Accessories $1,488,241 100% $1.362.778 3.6% •$2.851.019 152% Major Appliances $2,765,574 27.0% $2,941,869 11.3% $5.707444 157% Multimedia Books B Music $1.280,159 80% '$1,266,036 3-1 M. .$2.546,194 45% Specialty Retail $17376.039 61% $2,876;270 �5.0% '$4,252,309 53% Sporting Goods $2.386:792 27.2% $1,821,962 8.1% $4,208,755 135% Toys & Hobbies $4,627,827 31.3% $2,928.332 7.8% $7.556.159 14 4,% Ent ede'rim ent. $960.332 '10'0% $524819 2.1% �$j485,151 44% Restaurant & Cafes $6;891,261 8 0 % $4,808.077 2 2 % $11:699.338 ' 3.8% T,OTAL7SALES :- „r,„_ pv, sfie,ass,b4l�j: PS. {:::'10.29:IiS.,fT8.y 2894�'Q" :, '"4.SY.I f/48.3119.3181"L ,`=6:1%I TABLE 10.7 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX A FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) a% Of• ;_. - ' :x'2003'-i",` ,. 2005_:, 'i 2008 t s• ::2010 ' :2013 _ ON Ge Sp �d�bdtl� M:;1•� R�YaavYm a SAA � �H �, e a SS.._._.�l'I.'!�S'»!._ b.N r} "��./� •g/ �.. "+i.3.: �.t�' Alcohol'& Tobacco 2._0% 8,047 8',178 _8,304 6,286' 8.259�Yaj Personal Care 1 2% 4,742 4,827 4',910 41902' - 091 Personal Services 2.2% 9�073 9.229 %380 9.361 9,333 Pharmacy 1.5% 6;156 6,268 6.379 6;370' 6.356 Grocery/Specialty Food' 3 2% 12,972 13:109 13,381 13,519 13',730 %1C.litu!'•r-1�Jf.7,E:.��r=�:��..,•.•- �-'�.n8'ry1��Y'7-f�i' _ �1(i�rktn°1ri�if<I'"'�r -°r�1�-s,e-..,%L Apparel 12.0% 48.262 48,974` 49,663 49.574 49;442 Footwear, 2.9% 11,749 11,91P 12,126 12,108 -'12;081' Home Electronics&'Computers 234% 94,282 95.823 97.328 '97,157 96,905 Home Furnishings & Accessories 16.1% 64,758 65,839 66,899 66,797 66,647 Home Improvement & Gardening 2 0% 8;124 8,278 8,429 8412 8,387 Housewares & Small Appliances 0 0% 54 55 55 55 55 Jewelery & Accessories 114% 5.702 5.807 5.912 5,905 5,895 Major 'Appliances 6.3% 25.366 25,819 26,26B 26,23G 26,174 Multimedia Books & Music 21% 8487 81618 8,745 8,728 8.703 Specialty Retail 4 2% 17,009 17,231 17,444 17.411 17,364 Sporting Goods 3 8% 15,305 15,590 15.877 15.864 15.846 Toys & Hobbies 6.8 % 27.477 28,030 28;591 28,569 28.539 Entertainment' 25% 9,901 10,089 10,271, 10,249 10.217 Restaurant & Cafes 6.4%1 25,999 26.456 26.906 26,841 26.755 TOTALFLOORSP.ACE:•'(. s±• :-`;.; :a,?` .1 = 100.0%[w', '403,404)i'= Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 85 KENILWORTH & FAIRGROUNDS SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target -PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 10% 2.8% 1..3% $18 million Comparison Retail '81 % 1 8.0% 8.3% $1 1 8 million Restaurants &. Leisure 9% - _8.2% 2.2% $13million Total 100% 10:2% 4.5% $148 mil. Phasina/Timing Immediate' over 2 to 3 year horizon. Implementation, Lay.out &. Streetscape Strategies 1. Goal Is to create a "Regional Shopping_' Destination" that will draw from the Secondary Trade Area and beyond. 2. Anch6r -with either an Electronics/Computers/Home Entertainment Equipment Megastore or a ,H,ome Furn,i,shings;Megastore. 3. City could consolidate lands and then offer by tender to joint venture retail developers -on a'. Tong term lease, or to sell or long term .lease major anchor parcel to an anchor tenant attractive rdtes/values, to attract other higher paying retail tenanfs/developers to project. 4. Megastore anchor retailers should be: placed deep into south end of site, with exposure from Hwy 101, to induce circulation through project. 5. Restaurants should be. along Washington St. frontage. 6. Baby Boxes and smaller in -line retail tenants should have exposure from Hwy. 101, and placed between the megabox tenants and Washington St. 7. Although built as a larger format retail center, a contrived street through the parking area, -with landscape and water features should be created to provide a ".sense of place" and, ensure safe pedestrian movement throughout. Diiect Economic Impacts $1,48 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales or more. • $1.5 million in .Sales Tax Revenue to .Cify/year or more. 1,038 Total New Direct Employees. • Target sales performance of $347 psf/yr. Target Market:&.Inflow Segments • PTA, STA & Regional' -Residents & Tourists. Value to. Moderate price points. FIGURE 10.9 PROJECTED SPACE &. FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION CONVENIENCE RESTAURANTS & RETAIL LEISURE 10% $18 M ,,,; ...., 90/a'$13'M COMPARISON RETAIL RETAIL 81 % $11,8 M }: .-, . f • ,!3 _ `_' 1. - i :":..,.,' .-'/ _ %f, M_ Highway , - Infe(ch nee CPUor , h J :FAIRGROUNDS IT OVERVIEVN>>s Target°Tenant Profiles Sketchers Macaroni Grill • Fry's Electronics- •' Linens N' Things Old Navy McDonalds IKEA Bed,,Bath & Beyond .Dress Barn Houston''s Steakhouse 'Pier 1 Toys :R. Us G ].f'Golaxy Staples • The North Face • Patagonia Best Buy' Circuit City Petaluma leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 86 10.7. ETALUMA VILLAGE FACTORY OUTLETS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioninq & Format ❑ Regional Destination Factory Outlet Center. ❑ Total of 1.60,000 to 20,0,,0.00 sq. ft. Anchored BV: • Apparel Retail Mix • Value Apparel & Footwear • Off Price Accessories • Off Price House8t Home • Discount Athletic Apparel and Footwear Z'onina Direction ➢ Highway Commercial Development Direction ➢ Retain existing -center as is but externalize store front exposure to perimeters of site. Challenaed Retail Development Opportunity This site's most significant challenge is its remote location, which is not connected to or complementary to any other cluster of Petaluma. Although the Outlet Shops have region -wide appeal, they are not easy to find. As well, with the introduction of Value and Lifestyle Retail Centers, and mainline retailers such as the Gap introducing "off -price" brands such as Old Navy, factory outlet shops have been challenged across North America. Site Strenaihs/Weaknesses + Large linear exposure & frontage to Hwy 101. + Established cluster of comparison retail and national brand tenants. + Region -wide appeal and draw. + Readily available vacant land. - No direct access to Highway 101 and not near an existing interchange with Hwy 101. - Poor exposure to Petaluma Blvd. North. - Sub -optimal layout & configuration. • TABLE 10.8 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES • CATEGORY,(2003j'w ,r `...1`TARGET SALES =-.•1,,,. -, a -- ;ay: - - - - - :`I �; PTA..Ssw "PTA 6Aviljli "-_-.:"`STA ':1; I`-aTjii6PiuRE'{ AREA SALES FTTi CA➢RWI ._-�_ -W„'�n- 3":::•c'::'i ^`� Nam°"i iC-i-k `a: Y, �'. 3Q :.' ds.�ia - Alcofiol S Tobacco $0 0 0% - $0 00% s0 0.0% Personal Care SO -0.0% $D 00% $0 00% Pemonal'Serwces $0 0 0 % s0 0.0% s0 00% Pharmacy s0 0.0% s0 0.0% so 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 0.0% $0 o.0% $0 0.0% • ' Apparel $9,437,561? 150% $10,309,901 - 6.4% $19.747,469 8.8% Footwear $2,290,637 150% S2.505,670 64°/ S4',796.307 Ni'A Home Electronics B Computers $879.621 29% S1,319,884 1 :79/6 $2,199,505 2.0%. Home Furnishing.&Accessones $1,095,368• 3.01/6 $2.750,807 2.9% $3',846,175 30°L-. Home Improvement & Gardening $0 00% so 0.0% $0 0.0% Housewares 8 Small Appliances S1;735,793 3.9% $1.920.720 1.7% $3,656.513 2.39/r. Jewelery & Accessories $T,322,380 8.9% SZ354,999 6.2% $3,677.378 2.3% Major Appliances s0 00% .so 0.0% s0 00% Multimedia Book &Music. - $942.123 59% $206:046 05% $1,148,171 20% Specialty Retail: $2,254.283 10,0% $696.216 12% $2,950499 37% Sporting Goods $0 00% '$0 0.0°/ .so 00% Toys '&Hobbies $0 0,0% $0 0.0% $0 00% ,• -_ - Pill Entertainment $D 0b% $0 0.0% $it - - 0.0% Restaurant& Cafes $1,722.815 20% $51,867 0.0% $1,774,682 0.6% TOTAUSALES i.`. ('�S7f6�51�1'?`f ... .':32°/.{:- $25�116,111I=.., -a.3Y.{"`Y1a 796,700Ic '- 1.8% TABLE 10:9 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY<s"::`';:-....4i ,.. ;;- ,„.:,`lofid<, ; ._,.2095`;_`,, 200$i`, _ ;2010 "..."`2013 ., ,.. . ,.,"=2003,t' ' �i�+t�� (5r:::a.xrE.� -, k.a1»•i:: �`�-. ` :SR��'a�nm"��`'' �'�E:.:�cir'ne..� ; ""&�."" wN+'u Alcohol & Tobacco Pemonal Cara 00% -. - - - - Personall Services 0.0%- pharmacy 0.0% - - - - - Grocery/Specialty Food- :--y-yr;�wm.- �iE,••�-�++..ran.Y"'s'i;+il�f''EYc�W�.i'k-r�ciy'�r�uk1aE't$I>iGuliMic1�:fS1:4 Apparel 49.7% 75:952 77.282 78:596 78.484 78,320 Footwear 10.5% 15;988 16.270 16,552, 16,533 16,505 Home Electronics & Computers 4.4% 6.768 6,887 7.005 6.999 6,988' Home Furnishings & Accessories 9 1% 13.986 14,237 14.500 14,509 14.523 Home Improvement & Gardening 0 W/, - - - - - Housewares & Small Apphances 8.7,% 13,296 13,503 13,708 13.695 13.675 Jewelery & Accessones 4.8 % 7.355 7,471 7,586 7;579 7,569 Major Appliances 00% - - - - - Multimedia Books & Music 2.5% 3.827 3,904 3.981 3,978 3,973 Specialty Retail 7.7% 11,802 12,071 12,342 12.329 12.311 Sporting Goods 0.0% - - - - Toys & Hobbles 00% - - - - - Entertainment u.uro - - - - - Restaurant & Cates 2.6% 3,944 4.936 4.126 4.116 4.101 TOTAL:•FI:OORSP.ACE`�,.,.'--<',%"nidi.�:'':�1�.0%i�':i52.8i7:•��";:.155.859'.=".;i58�397"� "i58,222::. •:157.967 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 87 PETALUMA VILLAG.E,FACTO'RY OUTLETS: RETAIL POSITIONING ,:& STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target.',STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 0.0%. 0.0% 0.0% $0 million Comparison Retail 97.40/a6.7% 2.9% $42. million Restaurants & Leisure, 2.6% 1:8% 0.0% - $2 million Total 100% 3.2% 1.3% $44 mil Phasina/Timind Existing retail center has' limited additional development capability, recognizing its current poor access to Hwy 101 and poor exposure to arterial roads (Petaluma Blvd. North). However, renovations .to improve exposure and layout of existing retailers could occur immediately. However, any other additional development 'should be considered after better regionally accessed sites have infilled with, retail development. Implementation.. Lavout &.Streetscaae Strateaies 1. Improve. directional signage on how to access the site, from Petaluma Blvd and from Hwy 101. 2. Existing buildings are not optimally configured to invite shopping and turn back to exposure, therefore externalizing shops could be improvement. 3. Although Target Department store has been identified as a candidate for an adjacent expansion parcel, based on the lack of direct access to Hwy 101', this site may not be optimal for Target or for Petaluma. A. Other potential retail uses that could evolve on this site -could include a Home Furnishings warehouse/outlet type or home appliances store. Direct'Economic Irnpacts • $44 million in trade area Annual Retail,Sales plus est. additional $1-2 million cf visitor../fourist spending ftoirh beyond trade' area. $0.56 million in Sales Tax Revenue to'City/year.or more. $.88: Total, Directl Employees. �i Its Target Market &. Inflow Seqments PTA, S1A & Regional Residents & Tourists. • Value to Moderate price points. 0, CONVENIENCE RETAIL 2% $2.6 M FIGURE' 10.1 1 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION CONVENIENCE RETAIL no& �tn-m 'COMPARISON RETAIL RETAIL 97.4%, $42 ,M f;f � tiary� f, Petaluma leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 - Page 88 lei - 10.8 EDW:OOD CENTER/KOHL'S: RETAIL POSITIONING &.STRATEGIES Recommended.Positionina & Format ❑ Value Box Retail Center-. ❑ Total of 770,000 to 190,000 sq: ft: Anchored Bv: Junior. Discount Apparel Department Store Retail Mix Zonina Direction ➢ Highway Strip Commercial: Development Direction. Value Apparel & Footwear i Develop with Value • Jewelry 8t Accessories Box Retail ,in a 'Strip Value House &,Home Configuration. • Family & Cafe Style' Restaurants Proposed Retail Functions This 16.21 acre site is proposed for development with a .95,853 sq. ft. Junior Discount Department Store having 88,248 sq. ft. of sales floor area. in addition, the proposal calls for 70,640 sq. ft. of other retail uses, primarily situated in two "Baby Boxes" of, .between 25,000 sq. ft. to 30,000 sq. ft. and inlihe units of less than 1.0,000 sq. ft. Although this proposal will bring needed and refreshing national retail brands and price points to Petaluma; it. may also have a small affect on the performance and market share capture of'the existing and dated K=Mart and JC Penny stores situated at the Petaluma Plazas, requiring them to consider repositioning improvements. Site:Strenaths/Weaknesses + Large linear exposure &, frontage to Hwy 101 & McDowell. + Excellent access to Hwy. 101 interchange/Old Redwood Hwy. + Close to populous Petaluma East PTA. + Strategic Northern gateway location will have trade area appeal and draw from North STA. + Close to office and business park employment. - Not in the critical mass armature of Washington St. TABLE 10.10 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY `roriL"Trsaoe;- _r -y,.:._,..=.;y-..- _ ,- „...r=,•;,."'-x,PTA �T.',r;.i �•'PTA`CAPTUREc...:Ci"'.STA ."'._I,:sSTACAPTuaE6I AREA SALES •`TiA CAPTunE. _ .;t e,.�:fi:.. •Kel:'P�P.VS::':.ia ......., t�"!...4'i ...NJ�1..Wr':.n.`$S&�x:.+GR'�c✓ `hY ::': - niv^. • ... '..n ..,�'pt� .yA ._i2i1�,. :<:e�:y,.:�t..a.aK �'it �a V6'�4. l[ja,_: h^:,C»N.a: sx'tC.0.6.1, z.aF..._•.. ... .. C:Y,�Q.'�ii Atcohal B.:Tob-b $0 0.0. ' '$0 ;% _ '$0 0.0 Personal Care $0 �0.0% $0 0.0 / $0 00% Personal Services $1',600,101 50% $96.282� 0'-1 %, '$1,696,383 1:5% Pharmacy $0 00% '$0 0 0% $0 0.0 % Grocery/Specialty Food, SO 0 0 % $0 0.0% $0 .0 0% -J t• YY - ic.+pw�;r� a��Y1�YLii}'1' -•r� - -_ ' ii� ' Apparel $10,491,585 167% $8,526,858 53% $19;016:443 8S% Footwear 42,546',458 16.7% $1,690,677 43% $4,237;136 7.8% Home, Electronics B Computers $0 0.0% $0 00% '$0 0.0% Home Furnishings B Accessones - .$4.746:597 130% $4,375,940 4'7% %9;722;536 7.0% Home Improvement 8 Gardening $0 0.0 % $0 00% .$0 0.0% Housewares WSmall Apphances $4.575,782 10 2% $608,596 0?% $5.384,379 3 4% Jewelery 8"Accessones $2.529,558 17.0 % $1,224.183 3 2 % S3.753,741 3 4 % Major Appliances 'so 60% $0 0.0% $0 Multimedia Books 8 Music $0 0:0 % $0 0 13% $0 00% Specialty Retail $0 0.0 % $0 00% so 0.0 SpartingGoods $0 0.0% $0 '0.0% $0 0.0% Toys`8'Hob bies $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Restaurant 8 Cates $6.714,9391 7 8%I $1,453.4231 0.7%I $8.,168.3621 2 1 TOTAL SALES. _: '::'r j;e,_..., •:';',',a�' $33.205,0201"C`- %.4^11q:: t18.t75.900I<-.;'r>'a.OY.)"'i51;380.980�,'_ ok,2.1 TABLE 10.11 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX ,& FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY" of:: ;y�Y003 `.; ,..,'20Q5:n "s`. '2008�:a ':2010 20;13 MIx - .. ,• l n c GE"e�c' �;::� '+-: �.:,�� = , ad.9?/• 482�ar...�'.$, �;�,a��8:867��:Srr::�;�;: Alcohol 8-Tobacco '0.0% Personal Care 00% - - - - - Personal Services 4.9% 8,482 8,683 8.883 8;867, - 8.844 Pharmacy 00% _ - - - - GrcceryfSpe�altRFeod- _: t•1rt-...+., ,�_�������aa:���e'i1!eYtr►Li.*r {.�1MiLY.i�'�,6'k�iF�tti.�Orixiaa.6xiWS.�rr 6gppa�el 42.0% - 73.148 74,618 76.089 75.995 _ 75.857 Footwear 8.1% 14,124 14413 14,703 "14',685 14.659 Home Electronics 8 Computers 00% - _ - - - HomeFurnishingsBAccessories 190% 33.173 33,839, 34;515 34.497 '34,471 Home Impmvereent 8Gardening 00% - - - - - Housewares 8 Small Appliances 11 .2% 19.580 20,082 20.576 20.522 20 441 Jewelery'St Accessones 4.3% 7,507 7,667 7,830 7,827 7, 822 Major Appliances 0.0% - - - - - Multimedia Books 8 Music 0 0°!0 - - - - Specialty Retail 00% Sporting Goods 00% - - - - - Toys 8 Hobbies 00% - - - - - Entertainment 0 o% - - - - Restaurant B Cates 10 4% 18,152 18,641 '19.118 19,057 16,967 TOTAL'FLOORSPACE:':''s:<a"'`i',:%"';- ` I ; :" i100.0°hi" ;':;174,165"r:".,-177;844"•^`''181;7:14`.,,.-sy81:448 ' u181.06i Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 89 REDWOOD CENTER/KOHL'S: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2603 TARGETS: Retail Mix % Convenience Retail 4.9% Comparison Retail 84.7% .Restaurants.$ Leisure 1.0.4% 'Total 1006/0 Phasina%Timina Immediate. Target PTA Target STA Capture Rate Capture Rate 0.5% 0.0% 8.3% '2,2-0/o 7.0% 0.6% 4.8% 1,.0% Implementation, Lavout &. Streetscape Strateaies Target Sales•/Yr. '$2 million $41 million $8 million $51 mil 1. Developer driveninitiative alreadyunderway: 2 Layout should include pad restaurants on perimeters of site to exploit exposure & convenience. 3. Junior Department Store, Anchor should be placed deep into site, along Hwy. 101 frontage to have regional exposure and to induce circulation past other retail ,.units and through the site. 4..Althou.gh an auto -orientated retail -project, efforts should be made in the parking area to facilitate visually appealing & safe pedestrian' mobility, including_ landscaping and refuge medians/islands. Direct Economic Impacts $51 million in trade area Annual .Retail Sales. • $0.51 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. 52.2 Total New Direct Employees. TaraeUMarket & Inflow.Seaments. PTA, STA & Regional Residents. Value price point. Taraet Tenant Profiles • Kohl's Old Navy TJ Maxx Burlington Coat • Marshalls Olive Garden • Chili's • Krispy Kreme • Starbucks FIGURE 10:13 PROJECTED SPACE_ &. FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION CONVENIENCE RESTAURANTSI RETA_Il. & LEISURE 4.9%.:$2, M 10.4% $8 M COMPARIS.C►N RETAIL 84.7% $41 M HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE FIGURE, 1:0..1 SITE OVERV.1 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 90 40i. • 10.9 DSL/RANTER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positionina & Format ❑ Relocated Home Improvement Center or Discount Department Store ❑ Total of 100.,000 to 1 10,000 sq. ff. Anchored Bv: Zonina Direction • Home Improvement Center OR ➢ Highway Strip Discount Department Store Commercial Retail Mix Development Direction • Home Design & Decorating ➢ Relocate and expand one • Specialty Lighting & Plumbing of existing . Home • Carpeting & Tiles Improvement Centers • Hot Tubs, Pools, Decks & Outdoors (OSH or Yardbirds), OR, • Major Appliances create a new Discount • Pad Restaurants Department Store pad. Potential Development Directions • A proposal was on the table to build a large format Home Improvement Warehouse store (e.g. Lowes) of 134,000 sq. ft. on this site in conjunction with another 49,000 sq. ft. of inline retail units on this 16.46 acre site. Introduction of a new Home Improvement Warehouse store would require a large degree of PTA and STA market share and would therefore have a detrimental affect on the sales and survival of the existing OSH and Yardbirds Home Improvement Centers. An alternative may be to relocate and expand one of these existing, Petaluma retailers on the DSL/Ranier site. Other complementary retailers could include "Home Decorating & Design" stores that cluster well with such an anchor store. As well, the proximity of nearby business parks and employment also presents an opportunity for fast food. Alternatively, the immediate availability of,the site could be attractive for a Discount Department Store. However, the site size and location are not optimal, as opposed to other better nearby sites near interchanges with Washington St. and Hwy. 101. TABLE 10.12 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES w� ;,.TOTAL. x•.'rc. - CATEGORY;a(200�3)'' Y ;ctxm'�'r',-'fig'; i''k� a�2y�.z't° !`:+°.�'�'„•TARGET SALES BY�ORIGIN �"'�`";�/�i`y�"':�`�� 'fRADEI;�;u;:'f ,^;,�3r ,-'^. �•.i r�.`'.h":y.�:••a'F,,{KK,`''R'•,.` }�.�`•';, P.TAT� 't+ ...•,. - `z °'1 9TA CAVfUPE� AREA'SALES °1TTA�CAVTURE3 yyt'dat-p}`/s s�'L ��`: ''� 'fi" -�4�� 0.�.°ir ¢ ',F i!t �r'�l�Q% `S" F {`� , y�`•f k `0.9X Alcohol & Tobacco so 0.0% $0 o 0 % S0 0.0% Personal Care $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Personal Services $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Pharmacy $0 0.0% $0 00% s0 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 00% $0 0.0% .$0 0.0% � .•l.L •1 J..: r1.lY,_:.=_dJ;:� •. e�i6.11W' : L' .XAr ii'�a'��'.%kv! ••" rfll(ii�:N�'� �•ik,!"±ivRltufYi((�'lt54�lki1%1 Apparel $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Footwear $0 0.0% $0 0.0°7 $0 0.0% Home Electronics & Computers - $3,067.445 10 0 % $1.412.201 1.8% S4,479.647 4.1% Home Furnishings & Accessories $1,825.614 5 0 % $658.744 0.7 % S2 484,358 1 9 % Home Improvement & Gardening $6.549.433 29.4 % $3.181.649 5.6% $9.731,082 12 3 % Housewares B Small Appliances $2,235,380 5.0 % $1.482.996 1.3% $3,718,376 2 3 % Jewelery, & Accessories so 00% $0 0.0% $0 2.3 % Major Appliances $2,071,4.86 20.2% $1.195,830 4;6% $3,267,315 9.0% Multimedia Books & Music $0 0.0% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Specialty Retail $0 0.0% 'so 0.0% $0 0 0% Sporting Goods $0 0.0% $o 0.0% $0 0.0% Toys & Hobbies $0 00% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% TABLE 10.13 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CONVENIENCEZ. ;R' = .0% Alcohol & Tobacco 0.0% - - - - - Personal Care 00% Personal Services 00% Pharmacy 0.0% - - - - Grocery/Specialty Food 0.0%. - - - - - • o • " �� •+ ilt •ti� �'+tu�'It.,:�1f^dtL•r ..€ki�l•r��.t�.•,r4a`L,: �y+u'-L•rw Apparel 0.0% - - - - - Footwear 0.0% - - - - - Home Electroncs & Computers 13.8% 13,784 14,068 14,353 14,335 14,307 Home Furnishings & Accessories 9 0% 9034 9.244 9,457 9452 9,444 Home Improvement & Gardening 43.2 % 43.249 44.107 44,952 44,867 44.742 Housewares & Small Appliances 13.5 % 13,521 13.806 14,092 14,079 14,060 Jew lery & Accessories 00% - - - - Major Appliances 14 5% 14,521 14,823 15,128 15,113 15.092 Multimedia Books & Music 00% - - - - - Specialty Retail 0.0% - - - - - Sporting Goods 00% - - - - - Toys & Hobbies 0 0°1 - - - - - Entertainment I O.fP/° - - - - Restaurant BCafes 6.0% 5.969 6,144 6.312 6,285 6.245 OTAVFLOORSPACE:Us 'ie<x; e:: i' `I" cA100.0%I3 ,100,078 3.'?" 102.192a"a%.104:2941;" 5104:130,";: ; 103;890' Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 9 DSL/RANIER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target (Based on Home. Imp. Scenario) Mix ° o Capture Rate Capture- Rate Sales/Yr. Home Improvement 43.2%o 29.4% 5.6% $10 million Other Comparison 50.8% N/A N/A $14 million Restaurants & Leisure 6.0% 2.8% 0.0% $2 million Total .100% 2.7% m% $26 mil Phasina/Timina 1 to 3 years Implementation. Lavout & Streetscape Strategies 1. Developer driven initiative already underway. 2. Layout -should include pad restaurants along McDowell to exploit exposure & convenience. 3. Anchor store should be placed deep into site, along Hwy. 101 frontage to have regional exposure and to induce circulation past other retail units and through the site. 4. Although an auto -orientated retail project, efforts shouldbe made in the parking area to facilitate visually appealing & safe pedestrian mobility, including landscaping and refuge medians/islands. Direct Economic Impacts • $26 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. $0.26 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. • 300 Total New Direct Employees. Taraet Market & Inflow Seaments • PTA,.STA & Regional Residents. • Value price point. Site Strengths/Weaknesses + Good frontage & access to McDowell + Some visibility from Hwy 101 on/off ramps + Readily available clear site for development - Not directly accessible from Hwy. 101 - Limited site size for a. Power Center development - Squeezed between office industrial & residential uses - Not part of an established critical mass of retail activity (such as that along Washington St.) e FIGURE 10.15 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 0% $2 M OTHER COMPARISON 50.8% $14 M FIGURE 1-0�f6ti ` ; ' Po�44ng % ffi.. HOME IMPROVEMNTS 43.2% $10 M .'ice". - \• a`, xl,XI J Taraet Tenant Profiles Sears Great Indoors Sherwin Williams Bucca di Beppo • Ethan Allen Beachcomber Hot Tubs Denny's • Sleep Country Kohler Fixtures Krispy Kreme Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 92 - 100 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH & SOUTH): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioninct & Format ❑ Regional Destination Strip Center. ❑ Large Format & 'Baby Box Retail. ❑ Total of 320,000 to 340,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv: • Discount Department Store • Value Apparel & Footwear • Specialty Grocery • Pharmacy Zonina Direction ➢ Highway & Community Commercial Development Direction • '. 10 TABLE 10.14 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES Retail Mix ➢ Intensify and rehabilitate House & Home as a Highway • Value & Mid-Priced.Apparel Commercial Strip Retail • Housewares & Small Appliances Center. • Sports, Toys, Hobbies & Crafts • Pad Restaurants Intensification of Existina Retail Center Like the Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site, this site is at Petaluma's most important interchange of Washington Street with Highway 101. In conjunction with Washington Street, this interchange forms the linkage between East and West Petaluma and is the gateway to the populated Eastern areas. Accordingly, to complement Downtown and stimulate regional attraction and cross -shopping within Petaluma, this is seen to' be the best location for improving the "Discount Department Store" offering of Petaluma. This strategy could involve improving the existing K-Mart, JC Penny, and Ross, or replacing one of these with a new Target Department store (something which is missing in Petaluma. The site however is challenged by ground lease tenure that may have implications on availability for introducing new tenants and needed repositioning /rehabilitation of the center. Site Strenaths/Weaknesses + Linear exposure & frontage to Hwy 101. + Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street & to region via Hwy 101 interchange. + At geographic center of Petaluma. + Gateway to Eastern Petaluma. - Ground lease tenure. - Dated buildings require rehabilitation. '"QJiI-`iPTA;.,4`1rACnrnme'=.2*f,2rSTA°`-t,:it: AREA SALES �,TTiiciivi CONVENIENCE sir " ? '. aj r_ 1t , ; t7v?11;4"_ y x t�af. issA4s �8i sax Alcohol & Tobacco S8.349,673 18.7% S368.467 0.3% $8,718,140 5.5% Personal Care $2,854,227 17'1 % S326.630 0 8 % $3,180,857 5 4 % Personal Services S5.694,960 17.8% $938.392 1.1% $6.633.353 58% Pharmacy S12,175.491 23.4% -$2.006.196 1.5% $14.181,687 7.7% Grocery/Specialty Food $18,926,597 12.8% $4.101.518 1.1% $22.928.115 4.4% t.�.'rl is r-r�::.; � ���.� d •.�.r„�,r.��, .,•�wlr>rt-�v,�yr-�r::.��r.m �,' , p�:.s.;:1.+1,�c,ya��tixkrr��}.,r�:�y v2.9% Apparel $8,179.226 130% $4,578.831 S12,758,057 5.7% Footwear, $2,070.493 13.6% $1,085.258 2.8% $3.155,750 5.8% Home Electronics & Computers ` $1.262.975 4.1 % $36,927 0.0% S1.299,902 ' 7.2 Home Furnishings & Accessories $3.998,003 10.9 % $2,232,926 2.4 % $6,230.929 4.8% Home Improvement & Gardening so 0 0 % $0 0 0 % $0 .0.0 % Housewares & Small Appliances $7,080.831 15.8% $2.861,108 2.5% $9.941.938 6.3 % Jewelery&'Aepessones S1488.241 10.0% $1,014,056 2.7% S2.502.297 6.3% Majer Appliances SZ334.974 22.8% $656.194 2.5%S2.991,168 82% Mulumedia Books & Music S978.980 6.1 % S447,714 1.1% $1.426.694 2.5% Specially Retail $1,127,142 50% $629.574 11% S1,756,716 2.2% Sporting Goods $1.739,619 19.8% Si 2.9% $2,394.544 7.7% Toys B Hobbies $2,216,129 150% $1,056.408 2.8%p $3.272,537 62% Entertainment I 34 00%I So 0.0%I Sol 0.0% Restaurant B Cafes $6,511,4$0 7.6% 57,053.212 0.5% $7.56g646 2.5% TOTAL•:SAL'ESi`. , u «;:.:'.^°''` . .��'�;��'=�rl'�i'fee�eas�ssal w:,.... ?.ii.�cl ;ra ssa:aaa351;;>;LL,E'. +:a%� TABLE 10.15 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CAT, EGORY„;= "zoutt:u x� ��'' .i- - ``��;;- -:=L•r - p.:b:'eI'...;%7+�'.r_1�- - psi?ia,y-�g .;gip _ r.€^5��'o-� `.-""F'.-: '•I$". .^t ty3ii..T3i'-..}YX`A..,4e:`Yi::Y,`.�'.-^.,%i`IGei.,+^..i:. _ ,.,, y:t,^.:�.F :S4w:ea•P.;'_.,-tik➢.fr`arw. :- GQNVE _34 28T:".137:72444141;384 t41:583 3 143:885 Alcohol8 Tobacco 4.5% 14.530 14.692 15,246 15,203 15.140' Personal Care 4.9% 15,904 16,333 16,761 16.726 16,675 Personal Services 10.29/6 33.167 34,004 34.832 34.756, 34.644 Pharmacy 8.3% 27,013 27,778 28,530 28,445 28,318 Grocery/Specialty Food 13.5% 43,673 44,716 46.015 46.452 47.118 Il f-1� "15A% Apparel 49.069 50.044 :51,016 50.945 50.842 Fcolwea, 3.2% 10,519 10,736 10.953 10,938 10,916 Home Electronics & Computers 1.2 % 4.000 4:113 4.224 4,212 4,194 Home Furnishings & Accessories 7.0% 22,658 23.134 23,607 23,568 23,512 Home Improvement & Gardening 0 0 % - - - - ' Housewares & Small Appliances 11.2% 36,153 36.895 37.621 37,537 37,415 Jewelery & Accessories 1.5% 5.005 5,103 5.202 5.197 5.188 Major Appliances 41% 13.294 13,611 13,927 13,904 13.869 Multimedia Books & Music 1.5% 4,756 4,856 4,954 4,941 4,923 Specialty Retail 2 2% 7.027 7.162 7.295 7.282 7.262 Spomng Goads 23 % 8,707 8.892 9,077 9,063 9,043 Toys & Hobbies 3 7% 11.900 12.154 12.408 12,393 12.371 Entertainment 0.0% - - - Restaurant BCafes 5.2% 16,810 17,167 17.554 17.506 17,434 e J331;612`,�P, 339;222..,,?".339;U69"/=°=?338.864'' Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 93 10.11 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH & SOUTH): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix-% Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/yr. Convenience Retail 41.4% 16.4% 1.0% $56 million Comparison Retail 53.4% 10.8% 2.0% $48 million Restaurants & Leisure 5:2% 6.8% 0.4% $7 million Total 100% 12.6% 1.4% $111 mil Phasing/Timina As soon as ground lease issues can be resolved. Implementation. Lavout & Streetscape Strategies 1. City could participate in resolving lease issues and consolidating lands to accommodate a new Discount Department Store anchor. This strategy would catalyze project owners/developers to rehabilitate other portions of the centers. If a Target Store was to locate on any other site in Petaluma, it would also have the affect of requiring the Petaluma Plazas to be rehabilitated and repositioned, and the likely loss of either K-Mart and/or JC Penny, due to the shift of market share to the newer store. 2. Discount Department Store anchor should be placed either along the Hwy 101 frontage, with other "Baby Box" retail sub -anchors at the North and South ends of the centers. 3. The North end of the site could have more of a "Convenience/Service" orientation, anchored by Pharmacy & Grocery, while the South end could be anchored by value and box retail. 4. Restaurants should be along McDowell and a potential entrance drive into the parking area. 5. Although built as a larger format retail center, a contrived street through the parking area, with landscape and water features should be created to .Provide a "sense of place" and ensure safe pedestrian movement throughout. Direct Economic Impacts ° $1 1 1 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales or more FIGURE 10.17 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE - 5.2% $7 M COMPARISON RETAIL CONVENIENCE RETAIL 53.4% $48 M 41.4% $56 M ��,; . ,b •::` ,.,- a --•=._ ',, '.:moo' •, ass.' - � Otuw•I,r„ :tart$=•,."�, r.u..y —�0 Rt5t3N Cot:Pa :;SITE OVERVIEW HIGHWAY S . INTERCHANGE -. • $.1.1 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. Taraet Tenant Profiles ° 972 Total Direct Employees (of which 195 are New • Target • Linens N' Things Trader Joes Big Bowl Employees). Ross Dress For Less Michaels Crafts Longs California Pizza Kichen • TJ Moxx Famous footwear Blockbuster Marie Callender's Target sales performance of $343 psf/yr. r Backyard Burgers Starbucks Au Bon Pain Mimi's Cafe Target Market & Inflow Seaments Ruby Tuesday ColdStoneCreamery • PTA, STA & Regional Residents. • Value to Moderate price points. • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 94 1 10WASWINGTON SQUARE: 0.1 (� RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positionina 9, Format ❑ Community .Convenience Strip Center. ❑, Supermarket & Baby Box Retail: ❑ Total of 1,50.,000 to 760,000'sq. ft. Anchored Bv: • Supermarket Grocery • Value Apparel & Footwear' Retail Mix Personal Services • Pad Restaurants Zoninq Direction ➢ Community Commercial Development Direction ➢ Maintain Center . in current "Convenience" format. Kev Retail Development Opportunity This existing Convenience Strip Retail Center is strategically located to serve the "Convenience" retail needs of East Petaluma. Other than some minor infill of restaurants and services, this retail center should remain much in its current retail format and positioning. Site Strengths/Weaknesses + . Excellent exposure from McDowell., + Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street & to region, via Hwy 10'1 interchange. + Near geographic center of Petaluma. + At -the Gateway to Eastern Petaluma, Lacks visibility & exposure. to Hwy. 101 . - Site is largely built -out. •0 TABLE 10.16 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY..> 1... i;'ti;.:gs,l %r•':.w.✓„ .`''�+TARGETSALES.BY:ORIGIN".. ?'yM E:`. iTRAD,., . .r�;„ya; .,,' ^s ;,^fir ,vz .,'fie: „,.PTA',•":: ;'�FrA c4vruae:�I` ' ^;'STA r _:'.TOTAL �eTA`cAvr'iirn .i AREA SALES I°'-. er�turiE': '1Ws«;:".'"�"�'i �,tau�u"„?,;?%a ',.�,T.,L{7;49'1,08T v,t �}.t"1B.2X s + ,;.;a.:U789,0?8 i�`r5a:;'�;,i•0.2X ?��i49.,Na0,D95 '�.�1..,,+?_4.Z9G Alcohol& Tobacco S8',349.673 18:7,% $268,394 0 2% $8,618.067 5 4 % Personal Care $2,802.537 - 16 8% $100.569 0 2% $2,903,106 4.9% Personal Services $4,094.859 12.8% $192,565 0.21/6 $4.287.424 3:8 Pharmacy $8.116.994 15.6% $313,077 0.2% '$8,430,071 46% Grocery/Specialty Food $24,127,004 164% $884,423 0216 S25,011,427 4:13 UWAUIUA Apparel ,$2,516,fi85 4 4i $1AA,134 0.7% 13,580;819 ,1^6% Footwear $848,819 5.6% $258,669 0.79/a $1,107489 2'.09/i,' Home' Electronics & Computers• $0 0.0% $0 00% s0 0'0% Home Furnishings & Accessories s0 0.0% SO 0.0. $0 00% Home'Improvemenl-& Gardening so '0 0% $0 00% $0 00% Houseviare_s & Small Appliances 0.0% $0 00% $0 00% Jewelery & Accessories $612,333 4.1% $26',953 01,% $639,286 00% Major Appliances• '$0 00% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books & Music s0 00% $0 0:0 % $0 0 0% Specialty Retail $928.024 '41 % $40,740 0 1 % $968.764 1'2% Sporting Goods '80 00% $0 0 0% $0 9'0% -Toys & Hobbies '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0 0 % Entertainment SO 00% SO 0.0% $0 00% Restaurant Cafes s6.714,939 7 8 % 8155,600 0.1 % $6,870,539 22 TOTAL SALESi,.," ` :" ;c['':.; r ":; :.;+ :;<Ir _ss9;tttssel' .as%I S3,aos.t24�'... .- TABLE 10.17 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY,.'e,"%:. - , '�$ - a r °2003;�• 2005'�; 2008�=^° ``-201D.. 2013 29gk=91:M ""-' Alcohol & Tobacco 9 5% 14;363 14.722 15.074 15,034 14,976 Personal Care 96% 14.516 14,924 15,329 15,291' 15,235 Personal Semces 14.1% 21 437 22,017 22,588 22.526 22,435 „Pharmacy 106% 16,057 16.545 17.027 '16,979 16,908 Grocery/Specialty Food 31.4°/, 47,1641 481815 50,283 50,790 51,562 _..1_.:Y.f:,,J., •r•sr_saks��ezv�s3 .I. �o-�sl�aP.=-"' -- - �"Y�: �.LIr'.ek L_r� k-'t� :.�9.:'rfL'i �iL'i.�6Y '(1 II]_: " in�'ii�•Y�.-_ -u :WA Apparel 9.7 % 13:772 14,080 14;391 '14,379 14,361 Footwear _ 24% 3,692 3,781 3,871 3,866 3,860 Home Electronics & Computers 0 0% Home Furnishings & Accessories 00% - - - - - Home Improvement & Gardening 00% - - - - - - Housewares & Small Appliances 00% - - - - - Jewelery&Accessories 0.8% 1,279 - 1,315 1,352 1349 1,345 Major Appliances 0.0% - - - - - Mullimedia Books & Music 00% - - - - - Specialty Retail 2.6% 3,875 3,985 4,092 4.081 4.064 Sporting Goods 00% - - - - - Toys & Hobbies' 0.0% - - - - - Entertainment Restaurant & Cafes 10 1 % 15.268 15,709 16,136 16,073 15,981 TOTAL`-FL'OORSPACE' +-:.',} 760,143a-T160,369.:..%'.160;)26- Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 95 10.12 WASHINGTO14 SQUARE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES 2003 TARGETS: Convenience Retail Comparison Retail Restaurants & Leisure Total Phasina/Timinq Not "applicable. Retail Target PTA Target STA Mix ° o 'Capture Rate Capture Rate 75.1 % 1 6.2% 0.2% 14.9% 1.6% 0.2% 10.1% 7.0%0 0.1%_ 1.00% 8.6% 6.2% Target Sales/Yr. $49 million $6 million $7 Million $6,2 mil Implementation. Lavout & 'Streetscaae Strateaies 1. Introduce .more variety of family, dining and casual restaurants, particularly -along McDowell frontage.. 2...Improve pedestrian friendliness and landscape features or parking area. Direct Economic lrn acts. $62 million -in- trade area Annual Retail Sales or. more. • $.62 rriillion in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. • 456' Total Direct Employees. • Target sales performance of $41 1 psf/yr. Target Market & Inflow Seqments • PTA & STA .Residents: • Value to Moderate price points. FIGURE 10.19 PROJECTED SPACE.&,.FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION COMPARISON RETAIL RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 15% $6•-M 10% $7 M FIGUR SITE d "CONVENIENCE RETAIL 75% $49 M yWASFiIINGTON - f�. SQUARE t :: -.. Petciluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy'Study, June 2004 Page 96 0 0 0 10.1, PETALUMA GATEWAY & SURROUNDS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Community Convenience Center. ❑- Total of 1;00,000 to 720,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv: • Supermarket Grocery Retail Mix • Convenience Retail • Personal Care • Personal Services • Fast Food • Grab & Go Food & Beverage Convenience Retail Evaluation Zoninq Direction ➢ Community Commercial Development Direction i� Retain- existing center as is Convenience retail centers are performing well in Petaluma and therefore there is not a significant need to redevelop or amend the retail mix of this center'. Furthermore, the center is not that old and is visually appealing and makes good use of its site, therefore redevelopment in the foreseeable future is likely not necessary. Site Strengths/Weaknesses' + Good frontage to Lakeville Hwy. + Established convenience retail node. + Close to Hwy 101 on/off ramps. + Albertson's is a strong anchor. - Not close to where people currently live. - In an Industrial/Strip Commercial area. • TABLE 10.18 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY" 2003 ..,:,., �; ._,:, - • ,: .:"' -; 7,¢ ,..-r`% .. - `.f. •: ''JARGETiSALE58Y ORFGIN; ,,;; �-, "; z:r„ - .,,- •. TOTAC.TRADE - -�.., . „~s .`,z''5 - _ .- : PTA - irra cavrtii .:*', r 'STA `.'. =.,I "5ii.owiia&<:I AREA SALES ^rrtainvtiaE- a. ., �`' R "k= 4•$39,058.144 .. ` .. '7" 4Y :}►42,341`„350 n_- ..s >..,1`.d�a Alcohol 8 Tobacc ' S5.457.t73 12.2% 536 '.789 0 '5% $5.993,962 3 8% personal Care $2,040,007 12.2 % $150,854 0 d,% $2;190.861 3 7 % Personal Services $2,842,339 89% $192,565 02% $3,034,904 2.7% Pharmacy $7,514I994 144% $626,153 05% '$8,141;147 44% Grocery/Specialty Food $21.201,631 144% $1,768.846 0 S% ,S221970 476 44% `anal 1! 1 16Ya1 *'�t'�'n-��- ,..' - 1il YSfK ''�� �, i7R#i&7'T.Y""`w•'.-•` li�� Apparel $629,171 1.0% .$75039 00% $704•.810 - 0_3_ Footwear $0 0 0 % so 0 0% $0 00% Home Electronics& Computers $0 00% $0 00% $0 00% Home,Furn,shZs B Accessone; SO 00% $0 0.0% $0 00% Homeilmprovement&IGardening $0 '0.0% $0 00% So 00% 'Housewares & SmalPAppliances $0 00% $0 00% $0 00% Jewelery & Accessones $446,472 '10% $184 465 0 5% $630,938 0.0% Major Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0% so 0.0% Mulumed,a Books &Music $0 0.0 % $0 00% $0 00% Specialty Retail' '$1,127.142 50% $67;900 01% $1,195.042 1.5% Spading Goods $0 0.0%' $0 0.0% s0 0 0% Toys &Hobbies s0 -00% $0 00% 'SO '0.0% Entertainment $0 O.0 $0 00% Sol 7.1//. Restaurant&`Cafes $2,102,643 2.4% 5103,733 00% $2,206,37fi TOTAL<SALES - ':Y«:; f43361.571�'..^:. Tt ."„6.3%� ?::'.: S3 T06.943�:"-!"" ;0:2'6$47.068, TABLE_ 10.19 - RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA -,QN SQUARE FEET) EATEGORY ':`'#i: is = „ •�u of " 2003 - ` n"'2005'. ' 2008:; ,p :: 2010 -'"2013 aM1X. Alcohol &Tobacco 9.2°(° 9,990 10.187 10,388 101382 10'.373 Personal, Care 10.0% 10,954 11,182 11,415 11,41,1, 11,406 Personal Services 13.9% 15175 - 1&505 15.837 15,817, 15789 Pharmacy 142% 15,507 15.798 16,103 16;109 - 16.120 GroceiylSpecially Food 40.1 % .49753 44,513 45;576 46139 46,999 rl \'ri•_ a - - t• .• --- •AtY""''+'bLjiYs�:a"I'iie•lii l'i:1^'li• ''i�SLr�i1 Apparel - '2.5% 2,711' 2;774 2,839 2,637 2;835 'Footwear - 0.0% Home Electronics & Computers 0.0 % - - - - '- Home Furnishings & Accessones 0.0% - - - - - Home Improvement & Gardening �D.O % - - - - - Housewares & Small Appliances 00% - - - - - Jewelery&Accessories 12% 1.262 1.291 1,320 1,319 1,317 Major Appliances 00% - - - - - Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% - - - - - Specialty Retail 44 % 4.780 4,895 5,010 5,002 4,990 Sporting Goods 00% - - - - - Toys & Hobbies 0.0% Entertainment I 00% - - - - Restaurant & Cafes 4 5% 4.903 5,000 5,097 5.090 5.080 TOTAUFLOORSPACE: 4A-;: -' "' : _`'; �; "'' 100.0 kl 109,035: ', ;'='.111.145' % ':.113,584 . , 114;107::: ;4' 1 i4,9101 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 97 PETALU'MA. GATEWAY & SURROUNDS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003. TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Convenience Retail 87.5% 13.3% 0:4% Comparison Retail 8.0% 0:7% 0.- Restaurants .& Leisure 4.5% 2.2% .0.0% Total 100% 6.3% 0.2% Phasina/Timinq Existing retail center. Target, Sales/Yr. $42 million $3 million $2 million $47 mil Direct Economic imaacts $47 million in trade area Annual Retail- Sales. $0.47 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. • 327 Total 'Direct Employees (of which 102 are New Employees). Target Market 9, Inflow Seaments • PTA Residents. FIGURE 10.21 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOOIRSPACE ALLOCATION COMPARISON RETAIL RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 8%0$3M 4.5/Q$2M CONVENIENCE' RETAIL 87% $42, M ;PETALUMA , _ - -- - Lakeville Highway t HtGHWAY r jr INTERCHANGE r f, FIGURE 10.22 SliE OVERVIEW Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 98 0 f 10.1 OSH/ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positionina & Format ❑ Community Convenience & Home Improvement Center. ❑ Total of 90',000 to 100,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv: • Home Improvement. Warehouse Center Retail ,Mix • Convenience Retail • Personal Care • Personal Services • Fast Food & Casual Dining Infill and Tenant Mix Opportunities Zonina Direction Community Commercial Development Direction ➢ Retain existing center as is and enhance OSH, or potentially relocate OSH to a larger site (such as , nearby DSL Ranier). Recognizing the strength of OSH, there is an opportunity to enhance and establish a "Home Decorating & Design Center," that could have specialized bath & plumbing fixtures, paint & decorating, electrical/lighting, etc. The proximity of nearby business parks and employment also presents an opportunity for an improved food and beverage offering. Site Strengths/Weaknesses + Good frontage & access to McDowell. + Established home improvement center. + Close to Hwy 101 on/off ramps. - Not directly visible from Hwy. 101. - Small site size is. limiting on expansion of OSH. - Mix of service convenience retail with home improvement center is not optimal. • TABLE 10.20 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY=(2003}':'%"`""' ' "`" '9+-:✓ram', "' :{,',°'' fT'::>':.`r:.-..rx'�.+kTARGET tiALES'6Y'ORfGIN'.:r:"`•°r. '�,TOTAL'•TRADE ; `''=i ,.'. y PTA IM1^PTA eAPNHE: s. ,.+ 1 � - STAG ,ro^ 11 arweevllacr i'I AREA SALES 15 roe e.li7ulle=,: CONVENIENCE g . , f.y.;;J ��".'° 'i�:�"z���::i .;c='.ss.. Toe 43s (: 'i,sx . `' 3 s�ea,�� �"suss n l �sseez:ses �r�, aax Alcohol & Tobacco $2.984.761 6.7 % $53,679 0.05% ,$3.038,440 119% Personal Care $835,397 50% $30,171 007.% $865,568 1,5% Personal Se-ces $1.882.279 59% $96,282 0.12% $1,978,561 1.79%' Pharmacy $0 0 0% $0 0 0 % $0 0 0% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% ���'�-�ti-�.jig,��,.����r�rili.sxt�tt�W:.�'�e��r�.� Apparel $0 0'0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Footwear $D 0.0% $0 0 0% s0 0 0% Home Electronics & Computers $0 0.0 % $0 0.0 % $0 0 0 % Home Furnishings & Accessories $0 0.0% $0 0 0 % $0 0.0% Home Improvement 8 Gardenng '$10,150,911 45 6 % $5,714',730 10 0% $15,875.641 20 0% Housewares&'.Small Appliances $0 0.0% $0 00% s0 0.0% Jewelery & Accessories $0 0 0% $0 0 0 % $0 0 0 % Major Appliances $0 0.0 % $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books & Music s0 0.0% $0 0 0 % $0 0 0 % Specially Relarl $0 0 0 % $0 0.0% $0 0.0% SportmglGoods $0 00% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Toys'& Hobbies $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Enertainmeni $0 0 0% $0 0 0% s0 00%l Restaurant&, Cafes $3.167,556 3.7 % $51,867 0 02% $3.219,423 1.1 % TOTAL, SALES-:'^..;,.. ;ii:;; -==" .`;s•y,..' $1e- :0031 ` ,,:.,c.:ze%1 a-: S5,946,T291=i '.';1s.ax1':rS24s77,pz1 = .:1-i-,1.0%J TABLE 10.21 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX, & FLOOR AREA (INSQUARE FEET) CATEGORY>� „. trri`_�.='t1111X , CO NCENCB ��.:�f"�"-;s,�19;$,�6?�.st�,a19;285««�" 19;T3r:�`�?�2Q;187•v '24�'!49„'�`'��„�D.OQ3. Alcohol& Tobacco 5'2% 5',064 5,204 5,339 5,321 5.294' Personal Care , 4.5% 4,328 - 4,434 4,540 4,532 41522, Personal Seances 102% 9,893 10,100 10,308 10,295 10,277 Pharmacy, 0 0% - - - - - Grocery/Specialty, Food 0.0% - - - - - ;.. 1' Apparel 0.0% - - - - - Footwear 06-� Home Electronics & Computers Home Furnishings & Accessories _ 0.0% Home Improvement & Gardening 72 7% • 70.558 72,074 73.576 73,451 73,266 Housewares '& Small Appliances 0 0% - - Jewelery & Accessories 0 0 % Major Appliances 0 0% Multimedia Books & Music 0 0% Specialty Retail 0.0% - - - - - Sporting Goods 0 0 % Toys 8 Hobbies 0.0% Entertainment 0.0% - - - - - Restaurant & Cares 1 7.4% 7,154 7.373 7,583 7,550 7,501 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 99 OSH/ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS, Retail Target•PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Soles/Yr., Convenience_ Retail 19.90/0 1.9% 0.0% $6 million Comparison Retail 72.7% '3.4% 0.76/6 $16 million Restaurants & Leisure 7.4% 3.3% 0.0% $3 million Total 100% 2.8% 0.30% $25 mil Phasina/Timing Existing retail center. Di`r.ect Economic Impacts Although OSH would require 45,4% of the PTA market and 10% of the, STA market, it would still only justify about 71,000 sq. ft. of Home Improvement, Gardening & Building Supplies selling area. This level of market share is seen to be high and accordingly,, there would be limited opportunity to introduce another major Home Improvement Center operator into Petaluma, . without adversely affecting the sales of OS.H. An alternative would be to either encourage OSH to expand or to relocate OSH to a bigger site with a better configuration. $25 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. • $0.25 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. 327 Total Direct Employees (of which 102 are New Employees). Target Market & Inflow Seaments o PTA & STA Residents. Target Tenant Profiles • Sherwin Williams Ruby Tuesdays Sushi Spot • Liquor Depot KFC Office -Depot • Big Bowl Brannigan's Irish Pub Staples FIGURE 1.0.23 _ -PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 7.4%$3M CONVENIENCE. RETAIL 19.9% $6 M COMPARISON RETAIL 72.7%,$16 M. l j '� •''� '`��1 jr �t ' I t { CC ,r 0, 1 ``• 'f HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE FIGURE. 10,24 SITE OVERVIEW Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 100 Is, • • 10.15 YARDBIRDS PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positionina & Format ❑ Community Home Improvement Lumber Yard. ❑ Total of 35,000 to 40,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv: • Home Improvement Lumber' Yard Retail Mix • Lumber Yard • Casual Dining • Personal Services (Dry Cleaning) Infill and Tenant Mix Opportunities Zoninq Direction ➢ Community Commercial Development Direction ➢ Retain existing, center as is and potentially enhance Yardbirds. Similar to OSH/Orchard Plaza Center, recognizing the strength and uniqueness of Yardbirds, there is an opportunity to enhance and establish a "Home Decorating & Design Center" around Yardbirds 'Plaza that could have specialized bath & plumbing fixtures, paint & decorating, electrical/lighting, etc. Also, the proximity of nearby office and hotel and the exposure to Route 116 (Lakeville Hwy.) also presents an opportunity for additional food and beverage offering. Site Strenaths/Weaknesses + Good frontage & access to Route 1 16. + Established home improvement lumber yard. + Close to Hwy 101 on/off ramps. - Not directly visible from Hwy. 101. - Small site size limits expansion of Yardbirds. - Mix of service convenience retail with home improvement center is not optimal. TABLE 10.22 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY,i(2003);';;a, ;:c<;":`.`T"aicessiiisavoiitciri;: ta:> iTOTA2:TiiAne;%=`.. . .._ ::i='. r,1'•. 1 t;`i1 , �- '= <`,':t1PTA `., �, rrAcA ru x+Ia sr�u'vriuie'-IAREA'SALEs -=.n4`cnvrurte-. CONYENmCE';Z�.�.���.�.i�,�`,�� . farr.aes m� Alcohol & Tobacco so 0 0 % $0 0 0% $0 0.0% Personal Care $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 010 % Personal Services $677,883 2.1% $335604 04% $1,013,487 09% Pharmacy so 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 00% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 0.0% $0 0 0% s0 0 Dole r-kRILN Apparel $0 0.0% $0 0.0% so 0 0% Footwear $0 0.0% $0 0 0% $0 0 0% 'Home Electronics 8 Computers So 0 0 % $0 0 0% $0 0,0 % Home Furnishings & Accessories so 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Home Improvement&Gardening S4,458,178 200% $1,951,467 3.4% $6409.645 8.1% Housewares & Small Appliances $0 0 0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Jewelery & Accessories $0 0.0% s0 0.0 % $0 0 0 % Major Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0 0% $0 0 0 % Multimedia Books & M.- $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 0 0% Specialty Retail $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0 0 Sporting Goods $0 0 0% $0 0.0 % $0 0.0% Toys &Hobbies $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 00% TABLE 10.23 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN.SQUARE. FEET) ; ':' _ « p,. CATEG}} ORY1.�p- , (� rit •{o;of . era ;2003' �'x _ 2005 1 . - 3 w •= � - x u e• g y CONYEMtENCE II 13:4'G1�5.QST S?07;- b-t- S M411t 2:��i.51343&c a' • 5:? _ ; -Alcohol & Tobacco - Personal Care 0.0% - - - - - Personal Services 13.4% 5,067' 5.207 5,341 5.323 5.296 Pharmacy 0.0% - - - - - Grocery/Specialty Food 0.0% - - - - - lKal�ilal_l:i[:%�.6 'ziLt IiL ,�'.�'I�.�',J:ilai_.o64"�:9�'F7�Y�/WAA4 4:i':I:+W:�'is�r4171eAelYl:li:Llilii'�Aid.7`nWi-1f`fF� Apparel 0.0%- Footwear 0.0% - - - - Home Electronics & Computers 0 WA Home Furnishings & Accessories 0.0% - - - - - Home Improvement & Gardening 75.4% 28.487 29.055 29.613 29.557 29,473 Housewares & Small Appliances 0.0% - - - - - Jewelery & Accessories 0 0% - - - - - Major Appliances 0 0 % - - - - Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% - - - - - Specialty Retail 0.0% - - - - - Sporting Goods 0 0 % - - - - - Toys & Hobbies 0.0% - - - - - Entertainment I 0.0%I - - - - - Restaurant & Cafes 11'2% 4,222 4,329 4,434 4.422 4.404 TOTALFLOORSPACE::'�K ? `': 3=a �:.ri I:"•700:0'/el=ri" 37;777s.^.ir'% 38-591 +i39:389: 39;302:%•; F i;39;173.1 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 101 YARDRIRDS PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 19.9% 1.9% 0.0% $6 million Comparison Retail 72.7% 3.4% 0.7% $16 million Restaurants & Leisure 7.4% 3.3% 0.0% %3 million Total 100% 2.8% 0.3% $25 mil Phasing/Timinq Existing retail center. Direct Economic Impacts • Although Yardbirds would require 20% of the PTA market and 3.4% of the STA market, it would still only justify about 38,000 sq. ft. of Home Improvement, Gardening ' & Building Supplies selling area. Together with OSH, this means there is ,only about 34% of the Home Improvement & Gardening market left for another operator into Petaluma, without adversely affecting the sales of OSH and Yardbirds, or potentially wiping them out. An alternative would be to either encourage Yardbirds to expand or to relocate Yardbirds to a bigger site with a better configuration, then redevelop the Yardbirds Plaza site with tourist -oriented commercial since it is close to the Sheraton Hotel, Marina, Hwy 101 and Route 116 (Lakeville Hwy). • $25 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. • $0.25 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. • 76 Total Direct Employees. Taraet Market & Inflow Seaments • PTA & STA Residents. 0 . 0 FIGURE 10.25 PROJECTED SPACE &. FLOOR -SPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE CONVENIENCE RETAIL 7.4%$3M 19.9%$6M COMPARISON RETAIL 72.7% $16 M HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE y,v ____,--_�i \.S , YARD8IROS FIGURE 1:,0.2 1 - SITE OVERVIEW ', J,t Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 102 - 4 10.1 OTHER AREAS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positionina & Format ❑ Street Retail ❑ ConveniencelService Retail ❑ Total of 1 10,000 to 120,000 sq. ft. Zoning Direction ➢ Community Commercial Development Direction ➢ Retain and enhance existing Convenience Retail Evaluation In addition to the retail clusters already identified in previous sub- section recommendations, there are also miscellaneous street and Convenience/Service retail shops along major roads in Petaluma. Where there appears to be redevelopment opportunity, some of these sites may be conducive to "Mixed -Use" commercial development, such as along Petaluma Blvd. South, and Lakeville Rd. Direct Economic Impacts • $47 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. $0.47 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year or more. 0 334 Total Direct Employees. 1 Target Market: PTA Residents SOUTHERN GATEWAY AGRITOUR'ISM NODE, Recommended Positioning & Format • ❑ Agritourist Retail ❑ Temporary & Permanent TastinglDisplay Gallery Format To recognize this tourism/visitor opportunity, the Southern Gateway to Petaluma (near the Petaluma Blvd South exit ramps with Hwy 101) could be enhanced to become the "Gateway to Wine Country". Accordingly, this node could be positioned to embrace the -�► , "Agritourism" culture, offering and lifestyle of Sonoma County by creating the "first and last chance" to experience, buy and take a piece of Wine Country home with them. TABLE 10.24 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY: (2003)F _';% -px �=='.iaJic,sns:er`=o"Rlctii.r. ,' :TOTn TRAne;s "%oE='-_-`::> .:.•i:. �,•, 'n a ... %��'F ^-: ,",e "_�1 PTAV- I:=vrw e4lriwl :"•�;�.'<<-STAG-.,.Pa'iAc�vru�.,:IrAREA SALES <'.`.i'iAc4mneE� CONVENIENCE^ .'� �"r:=�?�"''�-�-:;� ;�?s•oxges?'�;;�;e:B�L?��#18:��,lot",�"'_„-:',fi�t.a��3�#3s,16s,6s ,"gsal�. Alcohol & Tobacco $2,195,924 4.9% $134,197 0.1 % $2,330.121 1.5% Personal Care $813.244 4.9 % $100.569 0.2 % $913 813 1.51. Personal Services $1,600,101 5.0% $96,282 0.1% $1.696383 1.5% Pharmacy $2.460,015 4.7% $156.538 0.1 % $2,616 553 7 4% Grocery/Specialty Food $17.957,668 122% $9,651,114 2.6% $27,608,782 5.3% ,.Y�� a�r�=�.•_�-L L..ii'kiLhkuiw_yy,hY1JLA°LL'� +�i 1� i'llYSYE��'L'w.�°sy�IfAir! Apparel $907.0G4 14% $75,639 0.05% $982,642 04% Footwear $372,854 2.4% $18.386 0.05% $391239 0.7% Home Electronics & Computers $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0 % Home Furnishings &Accessories S0 0.0% s0 00% s0 0.0% Home Improvement & Gardening $0 0.0% _ $0 0.0% $0 00% Housewares & Small Appliances $0 00% s0 0.0% s0 00% Jewelery&'Accessories $0 '0.0% $0 00% $0 0.0% Major Appliances s0 0.0% s0 0.0% s0 0.0% Multimedia Books & Music $0 00% $0 00% s0 00% Specialty Retail $2,203,935 9.8 % $135,800 0 2 % $2.339,735 2 9% Sporting Goods $877,149 10.0% $138.973 0.6% $1.016.123 3.3% Toys & Hobbies $1,229.763 8.3% $62.046 0.2% $1,291,809 2.5% Entertainment $0 00% $0 Restaurant & Cafes $5.885.3$0 6 8% $363,O6fi :°,,'.,'..•'$30,503.037IY'�„"?>?5:3Y.IiP:,`.510�93201'I IiY'.- 7.a3s,64�1_ TABLE 10.25 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CAT_ EGORY';�;s-",�;ri` -F>�;; ,:i•.i". - "5..3.+rc" '�� ''iµm '.�"./o of_ �2005 m� t`I7E.. ,le:a,•5 a.y.:» =3%$" ,• �•.: $•-~-,. - riF.:.z -_ - •.e?+,�.�. $ri - c�`'�C. --_ .4;�"�i=:-4� .:'i4'?f'..1.I :-Y4.'- 3 ....'1` x py�!'� Fv _ ... ,;fir, CON vEtMNCE ` °� �� 8"= ' ' fg 0% Alcohol & Tobacco 3.5% 3,884 3.975 4.067 4,059 4.047 Personal Care 4.1% 4569 400 4,792 4.789 4.785 personalS_-i- 7.6% 8.482 8,683 8,883 B,867 8,B44 Pharmacy 4:5% 4,984 5,102 5,222 5,217 5.210 Grocery/Specialty Food 47.3% 52,588 53,465 54.673 55,285 55,217 n� ti.•-•-.a,�,. �14�48�-11 �r� • t,, .•1�r�iiie:iai�fla•YgelBLklli-s4rx�il:Y-���.iA':k1: �vkA'.:1irJ •34% Apparel 3,779 3,848 3.919 '3,920 3.921' Footwear 1.2% 1,304 1.331 1,359 1.358 1,357 Home Electronics & Computers 0.0% - - - _ - Home Furnishings 8 Accessones 0.0% - - - - Home Impmvement & Gardening 0.0% - - - - - Housewares & Small Appliances 0.01 - - ' Jewelery & Accessories 00% - - - - Major Appliances 0.0%- Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% - - - - - Specialty Retail 8.4% 9,359 9,580 9,802 9,788 9,766 Sporting Goods 3 3% 3.695 3.783 3.872 3.968 3,862 Toys & Hobbies 4 2% 4.697 4,801 4,907 4,906 4,904 Entertainment u,ub - - - - Restaurant & Cafes 12.5% 13,885 14.201 14.513 14,485 14,443 TOTAL:FLOORSPACEi7;:":'it-^?'i=:i;?''•i�,,^, L W,Y ,100:0%I:"'11A,22Z* -: 113:449`. ».,:`116,0101=':,.'^,116,541? '. 117,357e1 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 103 11. MEGA BOX RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS It has been noted that there is an opportunity to accommodate a "Mega Box" large format destination retailer within Petaluma, most likely at the Fairgrounds site. Such retail ,concepts tend to limit their presence - in a market to very few outlets. Given their destination orientation and uniqueness within the local marketplace, they tend to garner widespread appeal across a broad geographic region. This in turn generates higher levels of patronage to an area, and increases overall cross -shopping activity to nearby retailers, restaurants and. entertainment functions: Given the profound impact of a Mega Box on the overall retail and leisure . development opportunity for a mid -sized community such as Petaluma, it is essential that this analysis provide a range of scenarios from which to estimate the required capture rate necessary to support a Mega Box within the city. There, are several forms of Mega Box concepts currently being rolled out in the American market. Examples of the leading Mega Box retailers include IKEA; Fry's Electronics and Bass Pro Shops, as shown in Figure 11.1. Each of these concepts has its own requirements vis-a-vis sales productivity and required capture rate. Mega Box retailers draw from a broad region, with customers willing to drive two or more hours in order to enjoy the wide selection of a specific retail category. As such, it is important to identify a much larger trading region for a Mega Box retailer than for their mainstream counterparts. For a Petaluma location, this expanded Trade Area extended the length of Northern California's' coastal counties, and includes 1.3 million people. Mega Box retailers typically require a minimal trade region of one million people. FIGURE 11. 1 MEGA BOX RETAILERS ° Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 104 r 0 • TABLE 1 1. 1 MEGA BOX RETAILER SCENARIOS HOME;EL`ECTRONICS MEGA BOX SCENARIQ._, '`-<,; REQUIRED,MARKETSHARE OF;NORTHERN CAUFORNIA _ COASTAL COUNTIES EXPENDINRE' RETAIL'`CATEGORY:: " " 063 ' ` :201 Home Electronics & Computers $'526,898,007 $602,557,139 Major Appliances $175,681,209 $201,2"28;037 ,Multimedia Books & Music $275,849,157 $314;808,741 T.OiAL°EXPENDIT "' '$9781428;373C8;593,9®1:7 . 570REPERFORMANCE:;• _ a; '-;9 :. _ b Pry Size 1.50,000 150,000 Sales Productivity ($/,ft) $600 $696 Total Sales $90,0001000 $104,448,674 REQUIRED,'CAP7URER;ATEi.%0 HOME,FURNISHINGSMEGA BOX,SCENARIO, ;j.µ, r : • _ '• REQUIRED MARKET SHARE OF NORTHERN, CAUFORNIA x COASTAL'COUNTIES,EXPENDITURE 2' "2013 Home Furnishings& Accessories $627,6315,468 $71 8,661,239 Major Appliances $175,681,209 $201,228,037 Housewares & Small Appliances $328;6241105 $376,459;617 : 70TAIs<"EXPENDITURE . ,"..I r ; e+''-r.>,$1;,13;1936;782P;t$1:Z96;348893 STORE`PERFORMANGE 't'° ..00 , Size 150,000 150,000 Sales Productivity ($/fi) - $450 $522 Total Sales $67,500,000 $78,336,506 REQUIREDCAPTUREcRAT a >Y +`Y <' ° , , ; b:04% SPORTING,GOODS-MEGA: BOX ,SCENARIO REQUIRED'MARKET"SHA`RE:OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES EXPENDITURE _ RETAIL CATEGORY: :.:" , ....,." `,>; ?003i.'• I ,.Y F .: ''?a' 2013: Sporting Goods I $150 906 030I $172;746 ,752 172,74''b752 Size 1.50000 150,000 Sales Productivity ($/ft.) $400 $464 Total Soles $60,000,000 $69,632,450 REQUIREDCAP.T,URE49:76° Referring to Table 1 1.1, the required capture rate for a viable Mega Box -operation varies considerably by retail category. Specifically, while a Home. Furnishings operator such as IKEA would require less than 6% of the Northwest California market's total expenditure on related categories to achieve its sales productivity target, a. Sporting Goods anchor such as Bass Pro would have to achieve nearly a 40% capture rate. A Home Electronics Mega Box would require approximately a 9.26/o market share to achieve a sales productivity of $600 a square foot. CONCLUSION/IMPLICATION FOR PETALUMA Given the relatively small population base found between the Bay Area and the northern reaches of the State, it is anticipated that either a Home Electronics or Home Furnishings Mega Box operation would be viable for Petaluma. Such a strong regional destination would enhance visitation to the City and enhance overall retail and leisure sales within Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 105 12. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Petaluma is a sophisticated retail market that currently lacks the diversity of retail offering that other communities of similar size and composition enjoy. Recognizing perceptions. that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned, by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is to assess and determine the missing, pieces 'in Petaluma's retail offering. This purpose is accomplished ,b.y measuring the scope of opportunity for introducing such retail functions that will redirect and re -capture healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey, which was undertaken .in July and August, 2003 to further gauge .and quantify the, magnitude of current retail voids and the resultant leakage. This summary section outlines the extent of. retail leakage from Petaluma. It then proceeds to define the proposed solution by describing the following key inputs: -Specific market voids that need to be filled. 4D,emographic profile that indicate the type of retail tenants that best fill these voids. -Expenditure potential available: to attract these tenants. °Retail trends and opportunities that provide the fo.undation .for successful retail development: °The application of these points to the City of Petaluma across each of its existing and potential retail clusters. 0 12.1. CONSUMER SURVEY To assess items such as the .degree .of retail sales outflow, consumer expenditure profile and, consumer, preferences, a detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during .the period of July to August; 2003. The survey interviewed 400 people living within Petaluma and its surrounds. Highlights of the consumer survey results include: ➢ Only 43% of respondents identified shopping centers in Petaluma as their regular "Primary Shopping Destination." The alternative shopping destinations that are attracting local residents are shown in the accompanying graph. PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS Coddington M all Other Shopping -SR No Primary Centers �`\ Petaluma 7% 8,% 3% Village Premium �� Outlets San_ l,a Rosa _ / t_ 3% 7% '"'° ` Downtown. Santa Rosa \ ,i,-; Petaluma 9"! Marketplace—, c1'. Santa Rosa ': Town Center,_ �\ sw 5% �.r, ti Plaza North PT Village at Corte \ >�,"� 12% Madera.' Town Center '. .,;> ,,•z_ Washington Corte Madera Square PT .; 9 •:h• Northgate Mall .r-E:+'`<'""� Expressway SIR4Pf 1- \ L Plaza RP Vintage Oaks Plaza 2.� Downtown Wal-Mart Rohner( Park Novato 5% RP 2% 8% Average $ Expenditure Per Month $1,71.33 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 106 r • ➢ The majority of respondents shop locally in Petaluma for their day-to-day Convenience needs (as opposed to Comparison shopping for fashion, large ticket items and specialty goods). Whole foods was identified as the strongest convenience shopping destination as identified by 259/6 of respondents. The next strongest convenience centers were Downtown Petaluma and Washington Square. With .' regard to preferred retail formats :and locations, P'etalumans' reported the following: ➢ Preferred retail locations and formats, include an .even balance of preferenceto add new stores Downtown and close to Highway 101. "Streetfront Retail" and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred shopping formats. ➢ The respondent profile suggest that a balanced variety of value; mid -ranged and upscale specialty stores is desired. Retail Sales Retention & Leakage The most significant question of the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that, occurs 'either inside or outside of Petaluma. The most significant leakage, is occurring for the following categories ranging from 50% to 100% leakage: • Entertainment & Movies • Electronics/Computers • Home Furnishings, Appliances & Accessories • Clothing (Apparel) and Footwear • Books, Music (DVD's) & Media • Sporting Goods, Toys & Habbies National Full Service Restaurants % of Spending Made Outside Petaluma 100 90% �i''€,:; - YPr: -..ga• 'Sr'r."'. - .F,'h4"G:,�'Cr.'-_"' - '.::•., 709%. p9"^'i' - .r":.'a�'ew3.'3A:'*:`..--;,.''<•:}-R.•:;:.,x ° f:.... .,`.jLI w4. Y' — X r.w .v. y k , r- so% Ss• y �y;'0% `yy ��5 �`Z` 0� 0� be N� lTC` �C` 7�y o c 'o F o F' ,� 4 1 Q9 1 G\��1 y`,e poei�l 2ge� z F Q-ey\a Qe c0,.pvy cbe cA5 y o g� d°°t CP ��- Cir-fp Qw o\oe ``�P`• ' �e� wee co - o�` - C The only Comparison Retail categories that are: being retained within Petaluma include Specialty Retail, and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma- appears to be retaining between 60% to 75% of Convenience ,and Service Retail functions such as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified' by respondents confirm the scope of retail voids and opportunities for r Petaluma. Stores and services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: ❑ Movie Theatre & Other Entertainment Venues ❑ Discount Dept. Store/Dept. Store ❑ Home Electronics & Computers Store Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 107 a Next most desired stores to add are: Apparel(Clothing)/Footwear ➢ Books & Music (DVD's) & Media ➢ Home 7m.provement & Garden. ➢ Specialty,Retail, Entertainment/ Leisure ➢ Local &, Ndtional Full Service Restaurants ➢ Casual Dining ➢ Specialty ,Food Grocery. 12. 2 RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE, Ini addition to the ConsumerSurvey, a detailed analysis was ',made of taxable 'sales occurring within Petaluma. The analysis indicates that Petaluma's taxable transactions reached '$369 million in 2001, with the major sales categories of Other Retail "Stores ($84A million), General Merchandise ($64 million) and Restaurants ($67 million). It, should be noted that these figures do. not include "Automotive .Sales,. Servicing; Recreation Vehicles or Fueling.'' Similarly, it should also be noted that most Grocery sales are non-taxable and thus not recorded in the taxable sales data:, .➢"The expenditure assessment indicates that Petaluma's PTA residents spent $369 million on. the categories_ under study in 200,1. However, only $172 million (47%) of these purchases were made in the City. By, contrast; over $197 million (53%) of PTA residents' expenditure was ,made outside of Petaluma in 2001: ➢ Onr almost all categories, the City is achieving a net sales outflow. t ,t uvttanis ➢ Restaurants represent the largest expenditure category included in this analysis, and, this category demonstrates a substantial sales outflow. The retail 'categories with the greatest retail sales leakage (and hence opportunity) include Home Electronics, Home Furnishings, Cinema and,Apparel. ➢ Specialty Retail is the only category toy maintain a strong sales retention within the City: 'This likely indicates .the effect of the influx of daytrippers and tourists shopping in Downtown Petalurria's Specialty stores rather than an ,indication of a complete specialty retail program within the city. s166.000.000 - COMPARISON RETAIL SALES & LEAKAGE $90.000,000.-=FROM_PR71_VI_A_RY_WDEAR]E '(PTA') E80,000,000 - - - $70.000,000 - TOTAL—PiA{QAtP. POTENTIAL, = $369-ML-LIOY' EST TOTAL SALES FROM _PTA ,= $172 MILLION E60.000.000 ESTIMATED COMPARIS6N7RETAIL LEAKAGE =3i97 MILLION ■ Es!. Sales from PtA $5O.000,000 CAP-AIRE_RATE-_47% io PTA E,pendnure wter,hal 11 LEAKAGE RATE = 53% ■ FsL ea a0e tromp A $40.000,000 $30.000,000 — - "3 S20,000,000 E1 0 ,000,000— — — so QpC `PQQa� Gaa e, aa. JA acne ca1.8 c b c¢ x` ca° �bP`OrP rip e y � - ��a'. c 4 b eF ¢'_w P G� ,yF� e 3a , $250,000.000 -____ COMPARISON RETAIL SALES FROM SECONDARY TRADE AREA (STA) $200.000.000 - TOTAL STA cow.,PormnAL = $1.09 BILLION $1so,000,000 - EST TOTAL COMP. SALES FROM STA ='$74 MILLION ESTIMATED.C-APTLIREWTE _'7'i3% -- 3" - 10 STA ExpendAure Wlential S Est: Sales from STA E100.000.000171 - s r t m sso.000.goo , $0— $L� ._ ' - �a ,.aer Q� d acd a �• ��c'1' b�' � V� d' C'¢ a F 6C3 a�aP" \POQ� � 0 de PQQ, ciao, aA% ac�b, 0 � Saa aA a� c aas � So't+ a3 . ea� Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail StrategyStudy, June 2004 Page 108 •' vA 12.3 REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION 12.4 CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS A key component of stemming the retail sales leakage is to determine the current level of competition for retail spending in the area. Petaluma's neighboring communities possess more developed retail environments, which can be summarized as follows: ➢ Rohnert Park, north of Petaluma is most comparable in retail infrastructure. However, Rohnert Park has a stronger representation of box/value retailers (e.g. Target, Outdoor Pro Shop, Office Depot, etc.). The -value offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. ➢ Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail formats, effectively appealing to a broad market segment. Regional malls, power centers .and box retail oriented strip centers dominate the retail landscape. The variety of retail formats accommodates a multitude of national chain retailers; and reflects a 'strong' ranking in all categories of the void analysis. 'The critical mass of branded/national retailers combined value prices generates the strong destination appeal for Santa Rosa. ➢ Novato/San Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the exception of the Electronics/Home Entertainment category. The majority of this retail is focused in the Vintage Oaks retail center fronting Highway 101. ➢ Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of 'Lifestyle' -oriented retailers in a more pedestrian -oriented shopping environment. Specifically, Corde Madera's 'Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle -to -upper price points (e.g. Village at Corde Madera). This retail offering and overall center profile is more comparable to the upscale `shopping centers in San Francisco. ➢ Although approximately 9% of retail sales made in the communities between Corde Madera and Santa Rosa occurred in Petaluma, per capita retail sales are lowest in Petaluma for these communities. In 2003, there are an estimated 1.14 million sq. ft. of retail functions in Petaluma today, of which about 775,00 sq. ft. are in shopping centers, while the remainder are in Downtown and Streetfront retail areas. ❑ Retail is sprawled across Petaluma with no distinct focal point. ❑ Downtown Petaluma is dominated by antiques & local specialty retail. ❑ Retail outside of Downtown 'is dominated by "Convenience" and "Strip" retail. ❑ Overall, Petaluma has a limited offering of National Brand retailers and restaurants. ❑ Many of the few national tenants found in Petaluma occupy spaces at the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets that are hard to see and difficult to get to. ❑ Petaluma does not have the variety of. retail formats that are evolving in other communities of similar size and demographic profile. 12.5 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL In order to identify the optimal strategy for stemming retail sales leakage from Petaluma, the City's component retail clusters were identified, including undeveloped areas that have potential for future commercial development. The entire retail infrastructure was analyzed simultaneously to determine the optimal function of each cluster that would provide the most appropriate retail offering at the site as well as contribute the greatest synergy to the overall city offering. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 109 The retail cluster sites include: • Downtown Petaluma West • Golden Eagle & Station RDA Site • Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site • Petaluma Plazas • Washington Square • DSL/Ranier Site • Petaluma Village Factory Outlets • Redwood Center An evaluation of "retail suitability" and attractiveness of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail. was prepared. This evaluation considers 15 'individual retail site criteria in equal weighting, to consider site exposure, location, configuration and adjacencies. Highlights of this analysis suggest the following: • The Petaluma Plazas (85%) site ranked as the best overall site for retail potential followed by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84%) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle/Station RDA (60%) and Washington Square (60%) ranked in the middle of range. • Downtown Petaluma West & the DSL/Ranier Site ranked in the lower half of the range. • The weakest site was -the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47%) site. From_a retail void analysis to identify retail functions and formats that are missing in Petaluma, the following retail opportunities are suggested for Petaluma: ➢ Large format general merchandise stores (e.g. Kohl's). ➢ Value apparel/footwear or discount department store (e.g. TJ Maxx, Old Navy, DSW Footwear, etc.). ➢ Large format house K home retailer (e.g. Container Store, Pier One, Linens `N Things, etc.). ➢ Large format electronics/home entertainment (e.g. Fry's Electronics, Circuit City, etc.). ➢ Lifestyle/branded retailers (e.g. J.Crew, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, American Eagle Outfitters, etc.). 12.6 DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE Having established the extent of the retail leakage from Petaluma, as well as the existing infrastructure and existing voids in the marketplace, the specific opportunity for the City to pursue was further refined through demographic and expenditure analysis. Specifically, the detailed demographic and spending habits of local residents were analyzed to determine the types of retail tenants. that would .garner the .greatest .appeal. When matching this "demand" information with the "supply" situation outlined in the void analysis; an optimal strategy is clearly defined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 110 0 Over 65,000 people reside within a 10-minute drive from Downtown Petaluma and nearly 387,000 people live within a half-hour drive of Petaluma. N4-dluma's retail trade area is comprised of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000 people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people. The total trade area is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual rate of 0.97%, nearly identical to the,national average. The PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.58% per annum: The Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 11,000 new residents anticipated over the next decade. Peta'luma's demographic profile is highlighted as follows: ➢ Strong a.verage.household incomes of $75,000 or more. ➢ Well=educated .adult population. ➢ Larger than average representation of 35 to 64 years olds. Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is estimated. to be over $2.35 Billion and is expected to increase to $2.68 Billion by 2013. The PTA represents $659 million (28%) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (72%). Total expenditure is expected to grow at over 1.29% per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is Convenience, particularly Supermarket spending, which will grow at 1.57% per annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenditure will' grow from $974 million to $1.1 Billion during this time period, while expenditure on Leisure is slated to grow from $340 million to $382 million from 2003 to 2013. C��ianrs''. Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development. Per capita expenditure on retail and leisure is well above average in the PTA and. STA, at 129% and 140% the national average. Within the PTA, the growing population base is anticipated to be bolstered by an influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. The STA is not slated to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per :capita expenditure, and thus_ represents a key market segment to entice.,to Petaluma. Additional sources of miscellaneous sales inflow include purchases made by the estimated 3.0,000 employees that work in Petaluma and the visitors whom pass through Sonoma County. Employees are estimated 'to generate $48 million per year of retail and food/beverage spending during their working hours, of which about half is from employees who do not live within Petaluma. Although detailed figures are 'not available just for visitors to Petaluma, visitors to overall Sonoma County and Wine Country generate approximately $667 million per year in retail and food/beverage spending: These spending segments are seen to. be supplementary to the. base of local resident trade area expenditure., FIGURE 8.4 POTENTIAL TARGET MARKETS (;MILLION) $667 U$659$24 0 PTA R<sidenss _ w O STA Resid—hi 'P, c'rt+'` r ;�,`✓'w`k& ® Workforce rcL K.1 .£'. .L ' ,a � ❑Tourists $1,690 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page I 1 1 12.7 RETAIL TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES The vision for the evolution of Petaluma's retail offering should also draw from the current "state of the art" retail programming and design.. The following retail formats and new generation [1 retailer types are currently driving North �5er 1Pe`deUse�C nters. ❑ Lifestyle & New Generation Retail Centers. t J Main Street Retail & Downtowns. ❑ Hybrid Centers (Value; Lifestyle & Convenience). ❑ Polarized Retail Centers. ❑ Strategic- Repositioning of Existing Centers. ❑ Entertainment Themed Retail Centers. Common elements of these retail formats include: ➢ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. ➢ Exploiting and celebrating the local, organic lifestyle. ➢ Establishing the community social gathering place. ➢ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. ➢ Culture, arts and education play a prominent role. ➢ Specialty food and public markets are an attraction. ➢ Spaces are organized into a "Streetscape" setting. ➢ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. ➢ New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. ➢ Investment in architectural & landscape features is.intense. Currently, 'the majority of these contemporary retail formats are not available in Petaluma, suggesting an opportunity to weave them into the retail fabric. • 12.8 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY A market share/capture rate methodology was utilized to project the optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. This methodology involves applying .realistic market capture rates against the Primary and .Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each retail category in each individual retail cluster. The market share analysis indicates that with 'the complementary and optimal retail positioning and mix recommended for each of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as 2.31 million sq. ft; of vibrant retail functions within Petaluma. If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sq: ft. is subtracted from. this total demand estimate, the analysis indicates there is an opportunity to add up to 1.17 million sq. ft. of new retail functions. This retail space could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per annum in retail sales for all of the Convenience, Comparison and Leisure categories. Of this ,amount, the sales and mix of potential retail capture for Petaluma would be as follows: $279.6 million/yr for Convenience Retail $391.4 million/yr on Comparison Retail $1,04.1 million/yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants Considering thecurrent estimated Comparison & Leisure retail capture .is approximately .$246 million/yr, the above figures suggest an almost $250 million lift in Comparison Retail and Leisure sales; in other words a.doubling. This would result in an additional $2.5 million tax, revenues annually, as well as the generation of 3,084 total direct new jobs in the City. The accompanying two Figures illustrate the recommended optimal positioning and geographic Iocatiori for each retail cluster in Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage &:Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 112 • FIGURE 12.1 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING POSITIONING STRATEGY DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL' RETAIN AND ENHANCE FOOD AND BEVERAGE, SPECIALTY RETAIL AND -ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USE. COMMERCIAL` REDEVELOP WITH MIXED -USE STREET-ORIENTEDLIFESTYLE', RETP AT GRAD&RESIDENTIAL OR OTHEI ABOVE,, TO FRAME AND BALANCE EAST SIDE OF RIVER AS'PART OF DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY/TOURIST COMMERCIAL• ASSEMBLE AND DEVELOP A; REGIONAL LARGER FORMAT RETAIL NODE TO INTRODUCE MISSING RETAILERS OF REGIC HIGHWAY/COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE' EXISTING PETALUMA PLAZA AND WASHINGTON ' SQUARE PROOPERTIES'WITH ADDITIONAL CRU, BABY BOX AN[ RESTAURANTS AND INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL APPAREL RETAILER WITH ADJACENT RELATED CRU'S COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE CONVENIENCE,AND'fl SERVICES AND INCORPORATE HEALTH AND WELLNESS "ZONING DIRECTION LAND USE INFILU ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT MIX OF LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET -ORIENTED" RETAILERS 'IEW DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT NATIONAL AND EGIONAL RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION/ REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED WITH A BYBRID OF "BABY BOX" RETAURANT AND A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT zSUPERMARKET AND PHARMACY ANCHORED WITH BLEND OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Ketail Strategy Study, June 2UU4 Page 113 FIGURE 12.2 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES - :: y'Sr ,f> I.._I•y,.�s.rb;- , .>y��-ems `'�'` eP Northernlip . Gateway P \'' ti.: s.f:-- '-•., it S. 'Rainsvitle Rtl'" I ♦`?y:9(�. �- vat :ay,^:- E-... _ "'``D�?;;!3{' .: t! �. I Pefalumc0s Central g Was ington AA .,4 /,+ 0. -'%•'u } Z < •f hi+ •.-,5'-'1,�~ Sr'`'ri._•" •' f ?" -i Cry «-?r.0� �%.",` . 'v ..a4',` .'r. l'$ � .cZi ra•�.. .� 'spy ^�'•�. RETAIAIL SITES,9_ .. •, _�, ;��"'n,.:",•`Retail Corrrclor L t - ,. 2` a:as < ,.�' s-:;-r" cv.'t . �+Y te/'`',••"'•'�' "."�.Y"•S 4. �11W 2. Golden x -'' � Ra+n N t�rr x as •:x:'•. Peretu'++atitu avei,y Eagle ,,_. . a'� ,O p .raw -.e� t7�=n. (�. . fir#.{ ,t �,.' r-„.;; .. ",.?•• ";r:,_F...-: - S "gym 4 + * i-+r.. e•,alu}:,?a 3. Fairground x.,' m ti, 9 is 3 �:'„"," s 4. f: Petaluma Plazas -•.. ` ems, S. W ashington Square •�. � ,. �;,w•� r.'.t.:' �,. a'AveCocss7ai'-.a Y, .atirob. _„• .�'w'x F^ Y'iPa iD 7. Petaluma Village Factor Outlets ,:t++,ns��'�>��" ,.0 �^'r • w'>�' -�i! tptJ we „ _ �= ":r -a.x „Ccrr+_•te? `- �fiJ. .s"�,v ..-'o"r?�i'O�`-'� ''Z. C,-'�`.t'' -.!S' y' ii� ``�•°F'. .- 8. RedwoodCenter"3aa - ` x' r:y i' :': c Vk `'c=,°:a�Ja. % va,l�Q• m a_ ✓ ea g 6�-. - ,C" :.'..,'`: F- - :` l �„ -,� .r{,ti�4 ,• ,. „�' �.-•,y�.�:�. T�".;�.s..,".:.�" 9. Osh Orch 1OU_,ta; / _ - i+'�•l ard' Plaza �. s. Two 10. Site '"G Ur1e ., � I,0 4�'.-t t.-. JP., � .=�;�:;x'-�•`��,,.F�Ky ' GnQf10fr tt • = I,c� /o r 4 ro: 'PetalGateway "¢1 S.. ,✓.. �• r � r<r�.. _ 1 1. uma Gatew y ,).:: a . 9• ait T °: U f 1 2. Lakeville Highway W F- ?,9 r: _:�� „.'=� {', tray:' s,,.•.. �3j<,/,+<ti�� �,C�= sT o,.�e``�''}'••� TM � �` •r. g n_ � i t_ y � ,C �{, ��, n a £"-� F' = i ��: T -`i:,ri.. .ss F'`� a i•, 13. Yardbirds- b a {a .►•,r.� i�ma sr.'x :' moo. .B; �,, __ < °r Plaza r� _> � o._ t � �' •,, .♦ T. r'_°�L': °a �� ?, :� " j - _ 4g ��yl'6- ty ' e �, ih. ♦ � ♦ a' ._. a0 ,, a t e P � s �. '7 "-•1. 14. Arroyo Center 1 x,e y O, t�Cv7ie; "�-•� , v - W `}� .x,�,.. +7.-: � fs } 0 0:.`,-. rJ7 C'�,ts`�,�.�-- `.��,.,. � ,Orr.`_-^-.•_ -S.. �Y. MAP KEY._ :i ryHhway Commercial .Y M1;+':,- w;�#`t.._;:w'" • Yp , A '":• v�� v t °:. Southern Downtown' - ;>.-.;,, Comm -Use ,. ,o '0 ercial�Mixed ._;wm.R�z.; own own `aGatewcry Strip Commerical L_ i ` k'';ii� °�'%',�,Ya�1?` =''a.. ^-; '�' -' f4� � .x-79� •"'s.i. S � � G7 --> Pe'aluma C.Nt aew '} �',�, i �a ;;C-. a... ✓ "that n;Co nt }' a Community Commercial «;:�.,:.:`,��'7'Hularr`;,•�5" `�'•` t4. F "*� �y`.`_'.y ?� +`%C+utj,z _ . rx � �=�' �i+giunai .� a y' � �.�ip' ���5 S,v� - •_�:. Tourist; Commercial �;�i �;•T}C{a'a. �� . �: ham.: ""^'y ....�� 'P � 701 ~��„� r Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable' Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page--1 14 ;Q a ;. I , J �.