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Agenda Bill 4.C-Attch2 06/07/2004
♦ t 1 Attachment 2 Petaluma Leakage I Sustainable Retail Strategy Study 40 0 • f eta lu m a ali orma ui evdie ee�t St Helena vn � st 11 W R k-) _�__. - ���M1$ms�d 12s _ q ---------- y5itpn 4 w , , YWrTtville P 68 d fibrfParkit 1 ay 0- ye", ot S - G , m Beach 'Tm M Ww 12 omeAles % "16 Nm- loa �ih _Al21 A 'M IN ,Ry y ' arshall', �`-SOLIAN V4 Qm I TABLE OF CONTENTS � SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION------------------- ---- -- 1 1.1 PROGRAM OBJECTIVES------------------------- - - - - -- 1 1.2 KEY STUDY CONSIDERATIONS---------------- - - - - -- 2 1.3 STUDY PROCESS--------------------------------- - - - - -- 3 SECTION 2 RETAIL LAND USE POLICIES & ISSUES - - - - -- 4 2'.1 INTRODUCTION ---=----------------------------- - - - - -- 4 2.2 PLANNING' SU. BAREAS-------------------------- - - - - -- 4 ;2.3 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH 4.3 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITIES ----------- --- --- DEVELOPMENT O.R'REDEV.ELOP-MENT POTENTIAL- 4 SECTION 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 CONSUMER SURVEY RESEARCH----------- - - - - -- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY----------------------------- CONSUMER RESEARCH FINDINGS----------------------- RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - - -- PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER PREFERENCES ----------------------------------------------- PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTER-------- - CONSUMER PERCEPTIONS OF PETALUMA:'S" RETAIL -- CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR IMPROVEMENTS; TO PETALU'MA'S RETAIL =- ------------------------ - - - STORES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA ----- = -------------------------- = ----------- ------- TOP DESIRED •RETAIL STORE ADDITIONS--------- - - - - -- TOP DESIRED SERVICE ADDITIONS---------------- - - - - -- TOP DESIRED LEISURE ADDITIONS-------- - - - - -- -- - - - - -- IMPROVEMENTS TO INCREASE VISITS:---------- - - - - -- CONSUMER PREFERENCES: DESIRED RETAIL LOCATION, FORMATS AND PRICE POINTS--------- - -- RETAIL SALE'S RETENTION & LEAKAGE=---------- - - - - -- 44 44 46 46 SECTION 3 PETALUMA RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW - - ---- 9 3.1 INTRODUCTION=------- - - - - -- - - - - -- =-----=---- - - - - -- 9 3.2 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES-------------------------- - - - - -- 9 13 PETALUMA RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE - - -- --- = - - - -- 10 3.3.1 PROPOSED KEY RETAIL PROJECTS------------- - - - - -- 12 3.4 CITY OF PETALUMA VOID ANALYSIS--- ------------ - 12 SECTION 4 REGION AL RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW-- ---- -- 15 4.1 KEY CENTERS IN SONOMA COUNTY & NORTH MAIN COUNTY -------------=-=--------- - - - - -- 15 4.1.1 ROHNERT PARK----------------------------------- - - - - -- 15 4.1.2 SANTA ROSA ----------- - ----------- '- -------------------- 19 4.1.3 NOVATO /SAN RAFAEL-------------------------- - - - - -- 19 4.1 .4 CORDE MADERA - .-----------------=--- - = - - -- --- - - - - -- 23 4.2 SONOMA /MARIN COUNTY VOID ANALYSIS - - - - -- 23 4.3 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITIES ----------- --- --- 25 SECTION 5 NORTH AMERICAN RETAIL TRENDS--------- - - - - -- 34 5.1 PROJECT ANALOGUE EXAMPLES-------------- - - - - -- 34 5.2 KEY COMMON ELEMENTS---------------------- - - - - -- 34 5.3 MIX €D - USE° CENTERS ----------------------------------- 37 5.4 LIFESTYLE CENTERS------------------------------- - - - - -- 38 5.5 MAIN. STREET PRECINCTS------------------------ - - - - -- 39 5.6 HYBRID CENTERS --------------------------------- - - - - -- 40 5.7 5.8 POLARIZED RETAIL CENTERS-------------------- - - - - -- STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING------------------- - - - - -- 41 42 5.9 ENTERTAINMENT THEMED RETAILING-------- - - - - -- 42 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7.1 6.7.2 6.7.3 6.7.4 6.7.5 6.8 .• SECTION 7 TRADE AREA RETAIL DEMOGRAPHIC 49 50 51 52 52 52 53 53 5`3 54 55 ASS ESSM E NT- - --------------- ---- -- 56 7.1 TRADE: AREA DELINEATION-=------- - - - - -- ------------------- 56 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS--------- - - - - -- 57 SECTION 8 TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROFILE - ----- 61 8.1 PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS--------- - - - - -- 61 8.2 AGGREGATE RETAIL EXPENDITURE-=------------- - - - - -- 62 8.3 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES OF BUSINESS------ - - - - -- 64 SECTION 9 RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE ANALYSIS----------- ---- -- 67 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS ('CONTINUED) SECTION 10 RETAIL POSITIONING RECOMMENDATIONS 10.16 OTHER AREAS: RETAIL POSITIONING `& STRATEGIES - -- 103 SECTION 11 MEGA BOX RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS -- --- -- 104 was 4 Cuvuvlldnis; 6t - _ k SECTION 12' CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS---- - - - - -- 106 12.1 & STRATEGIES--------------- ---------------------=--- --_- -- 75 10.1 MARKET SHARE /CAPTURE RATE METHODOLOGY - - - - -- 75 1.0.2 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY-------- - - - - -- 75 10.3 POSITIONING OF PETALUMA'S RETAIL INDIVIDUAL. 109 12.5 RETAIL CLUSTERS = - - -- =-------------------------------- - - - - -- 75 10.4 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL 109 12.6 POSIT_.IONING & STRATEGIES-------------------------- - - - - -- 81 10.5 REDEVELOPED'GOLDEN EAGLE & STATION 112- 12.8 SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES - ------------ '83 10.6 KENILWORTH'& FAIRGROUNDS SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES - - - - -- -"-_ -- --------- - - - - -- 85 10.7 PETALUMA, VILLAGE FACTORY OUT,LETS:. RETAIL POSITIONING &STRATEGIES=--=------------ - - - - -- 87 10.8 REDWOOD CENTER /KOHL'S: RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGIES-------------------------=-- - - - - -- 89 10.9 DSL /RANIER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGIES - -- 91 10.11 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH '& SOUTH) : `RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES-- . - - - -- --_ -------- ------------ 93 10.12 WASHINGTON SQUARE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES ------ - = --- - ------------------------- - - - - -- 95 10.13 PETALUMA GATEWAY: RETAIL AND STRATEGIES--------------------------------------- - - - - -- 97 10.14 OSH /ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES----------------------- - - - - -- 99 10.15 YARDBIRDS PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES ----------------- -- .------------ - -------- ---- - - - - =- 101 10.16 OTHER AREAS: RETAIL POSITIONING `& STRATEGIES - -- 103 SECTION 11 MEGA BOX RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS -- --- -- 104 was 4 Cuvuvlldnis; 6t - _ k SECTION 12' CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS---- - - - - -- 106 12.1 CONSUMER .SURVEY - - ---------- ---=---=-------------- - - - - -- 106 12. RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE=-------------------------------- - - - - -- 108 12.3 REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION------- =------------- - - - - -- 109 12.4 CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS-------------- - - - - -- 109 12.5 P.ETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL- ----- _--- ---------------- - - - - -- 109 12.6 DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE------------ - - - - -- 110 12.7 RETAIL TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES-------------------- - - - - -- 112- 12.8 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY-------- - - - - -- 112 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June _IS*F TABLES TABLE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB AREA --------------------- =--=--------------------------- 5 TABLE 2.2 RETAIL SUITABILITY EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL r TABLE 10.3 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 80 TABLE 10.4 DEVELOPMENT & REDEVELOPMENT SITES------- - - - - -- 8 TABLE 3.1 MAJOR PETALUMA RETAIL CENTERS-------------- - - - - -- 11 TABLE; 3.2 RETAIL VOID /O.PPORTUNITY ANALYSIS - CITY 84 TABLE 10.7 OF PETALUMA--------------------------------------------- 13 TABLE 4.1 NORTH REGION 7 RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE 86 TABLE 10.9 (SONOMA COUNTY) --- - - - -- - - - - - -- -------------- - - - - -- 17 TABLE 4.2 SOUTHERN RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE------------- - - - - -- 21 TABLE 4:3, RETAIL/VOID OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS - CITY OF 88 TABLE 10.1 2 PETALUMA - - -- ----------------------- 24 TABLE 4.4 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX------- - - - - -- 27 TABLE 7.1 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS' BY SUB - AREA---- - - - - -- 58: TABLE 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY--------- - - - - -- 59 TABLE 8.1 PER CAPITA RETAIL /LEISURE' EXPENDITURE, 2003 - - - -- 61 TABLE 8.2 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2003- 2013------------------ - - - - -- 62 TABLE 8.3 SONOMA COUNTY EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS-- - - - - -- 64 TABLE 8.4 SONOMA COUNTY PER CAPITA TOURIST 96' TABLE 10.20 SPENDING --------------------=--- - - - - -- - ----------------------------------------------------- 65 TABLE 9.1 AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES----------------------- - -- - -- 66 TABLE 9.2 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA 100 TABLE 10.23 CIRCULATION,- PTA MARKET----------------------- - - - - -- 71 TABLE 9.3 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL. FLOOR AREA 102 TABLE 10.25 CIRCULATION - STA MARKET----------------------- - - - - -- 72 TABLE 10.1 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX-ALLOCATION BY 104 RETAIL CLUSTER--------------------------------------- - - - - -- 75 TABLE 10.2 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES-- - - - - -- 80 r TABLE 10.3 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 80 TABLE 10.4 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 82 TABLE 10.5 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 82 TABLE 10.6 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 84 TABLE 10.7 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 84 TABLE 10.8 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 86 TABLE 10.9 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA ----- 86 TABLE 10.10 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES- - - - - -- 88 TABLE 10.111 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 88 TABLE 10.1 2 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 90 TABLE 10.13 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA- ----- 90 TABLE 10.14 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 92- TABLE 10. 15 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 92 TABLE 10.16 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 94 TABLE 10.17 RECOMMENDED RETAIL.MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 94 TABLE 10.18 PROJECTED SALES ,& TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 96 TABLE 10.19 RECOMMENDED RETAIL. MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 96' TABLE 10.20 PROJECTED.SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 98 TABLE 10.21 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 98 TABLE 10.22 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 100 TABLE 10.23 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 100 TABLE 10.24 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES - - - - -- 102 TABLE 10.25 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA-- - - - - -- 102 TABLE 11.1 MEGA BOX RETAILER SCENARIOS--------------- - - - - -- 104 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 �a LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1 STUDY PROCESS--------------------------=------- -- - - -- 3 FIGURE 6.8 RESPONDENT GENDER--------------------------- - - - - -- 48 FIGURE 2:1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING FIGURE 6.9 TOP 1;0 REASONS SHOPS AT PRIMARY SUB- AREA----------------------------- ----- -------------- 6 COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER ------------ FIGURE 2.2 CITY OF PETALUMA RETAIL CLUSTERS: FIGURE 6.10 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS - - = -- 49 POTENTIAL - DEVELOPMENT AND REDEVELOPMENT SITES— ------------ ------------ - - - - -- 7 FIGURE 6.11 TOP 5 PRIMARY' CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTERS- - -- - -- - .-------- - - - - -- -- - - - - -- 50 FIGURE 3.1 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES ------------ =------------------- 10 FIGURE 6A2 TOP 1.0, REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY FIGURE 4.1 NEIGHBOURING COMMUNITIES WITH CONVENIENCE' SHOPPING CENTER------------ - - - - -- 50 ESTABLISHED, RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE------- - - - - -- 16 FIGURE 6.13 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN FIGURE 4:2 ROHNERT PARK: MAJOR RETAIL DISLIKES-. -------------------------------------------------- 51 INFRASTRUCTURE----------- ------------------------- 1 8 FIGURE'6.14 PETALUMA SHOPPING FACILITIES MAIN LIKES - - - - -- 51 FIG'URE'4.3 SANTA ROSA MAJOR RETAIL FIGURE 6.15 TOP STORES OR SERVICES THAT WOULD INFRASTRUCTURE -- - - - - -- -------------------- - - - - -- 20 INCREASE VISITS TO ' PETALUMA --------------- - ------ 52 FIGURE 4.4 NOVATO /SAN RAFAEL MAJOR RETAIL 'FIGURE INFRASTRUCTURE--------------------------------- - - - - -- 22 6.16, IMPORTANCE'RATINGS FOR ADDED TO PETALUMA-------------------------------------- - - - - -- 52 FIGURE 5.1 TRENDS & DISTINCTIVE QUALITIES OF SUCCESSFUL RETAIL PROJECTS ------- - -=-------------- 35 FIGURE 6.17 IMPORTANCE RATING FOR SERVICES ADDED TO PET_ALUMA'- --- ---- --------------------- -= -- 53 FIGURE ,5.2 NORTH AMERICA TRENDS RETAIL FORMAT PROFILES----- - - - - -- - - - -- -- ---------------------- - - ---- 36 FIGURE 6.18 IMPORTANCE RATINGS FOR RESTAURANTS ENTERTAINMENT ADDED TO PETALUMA------- - - - - -- 53 FIGURE 6.1 CITY RESPONDENT RESIDES--------------------- - - - - -- 44 FIGURE 6.19 TOP CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS THAT FIGURE 6.2 CONSUMER SURVEY RESPONDENTS WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA----- - - - - -- 53 RESIDENTIAL ADDRESS------- ------=------------- - - - - -- 45 FIGURE 6.20 LOCATION PREFERENCES OF` NEW FIGURE 6:3 HOUSEHOLD SIZE ------------ ----- -------------- - - - - - -- 46 STORES IN PETALUMA -=--------------------------------- 54 FIGURE 6.4 NUMBER'IN HOUSEHOLD< 19 YEARS OLD - - - - - -- 47 FIGURE 6.21 STORE,FORMAT PREFERENCE'OF NEW FIGURE,'6.5 AGE OF RESPONDENT =----- - - = - -- - - - - - -= ----- - - - - -- 4T STORES SERVICES IN „PETALUMA=--------------- - - = - -- 54 FIGURE 6.6 HOUSEHOLD YEARLY INCOME------------------ - - - - -- 47 FIGURE 6.22 PRICE POINT PREFERENCE OF NEW STORES .----------- `IN SERVICES PETALUMA. - -. I ------ - -____ 54 FIGURE' 6.7 RESPONDENT ETHNIC ORIGIN ------------- ----- - - - - -- 48 FIGURE-6.23 % OF'SPENDINGMADE,OUTSIDE PETALUMA - - -- 55 J Petaluma Leakage Sustainable.Retail Strategy Study, Jun 004 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 FIGURE 7.1 TRADE AREA BOUNDARIES--------------------- - - - - -- 56 FIGURE 10.6 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -= 83 FIGURE 7.2 DRIVE TIME & 2003 POPULATION ------------------ 57 FIGURE 10.7 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------------------------- - - - - -- 83 FIGURE'7 3 POPULATION GROWTH----------------------- - - - - -- 59 FIGURE 10.8 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -- 85 FIGURE 7,4, AVG. HOUSEHOLD INCOME------------------ - - - - -- 60 FIGURE 10.9 SITE OVERVIEW----------------------------- - - - - -- - - - - - -- 85 FIGURE 7.5 AVG. HOUSEHOLD SIZE=----------------------- - - - - -- 60 FIGURE 10.10 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -- 87 FIGURE 8.1 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY EXPENDITURE FIGURE 10.1' 1 SITE OVERVIEW -=-------------------- - 87 CATEGORY--- - - - - -- ------- _- _--------- _--------- - - - - -- 63 FIGURE AVER -AGE DAILY WORKER EXPENDITURE --- 64 FIGURE 1..0.13 PROJECTED SPACE'& FLOO,RS,P_ACE ALLOCATION: = -- 89 FIGURE 8.3 TOURISM EXPENDITURE IN SONOMA FIGURE 1;0:13 SITE OVERVIEW --------- - ----------------------------- - --- -- 89 COUNTY (20.01) -------------------------------- - - - - -- 65 FIGURE 1.0.14 PROJECTED SPACE &.FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -- 91 FIGURE 8.4 POTENTIAL TARGET MARKET ($ MILLION) --- - - - - -- 65 FIGURE 70'.15 SITE. OVERVIEW- - ------- ------ ----- ------------------ - - - -_ -= 91 FIGURE 9.1 AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES, 2000--------- - - - - -- 67 FIGURE 10.16 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - =- 93. FIGURE 9.2 TAXABLE SALES PER CAPITA, 2000----------- - - - - -- 67- FIGURE 10.17 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------------------------- - - - - -- 93 FIGURE 9.3. RETAIL SALES & LEAKAGE FROM PTA, CITY OF PETALUMA, .. 2001--------------------------- - - - - -- 6,9 FIGURE 1:0.18 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION, - -- 95 FIGURE 9.4 RETAIL SALES FROM STA, CITY OF FIGURE 10.19 SITE OVERVIEW---------------------------- - - - - -- - - - -- - 9'5 PETALUMA, 200--------------- ------ ------------ - - - = -- 70 FIGURE 10M) PROJECTED SPACE& FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -= 97 FIGURE 9.5 TOTAL LATENT FLOORS PACE .0PPO.RTUNITY ---- 73 FIGURE 10.21 SITE OVERVIEW '------- =------------------------------- -- - - -- 97 FIGURE 10.1 PfETALUMA - OPTIMAL,AGGREGATE RETAIL MIX------------------------------- -------- - - - - -- 76 FIGURE 7.0.22: PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION - -- 99 FIGURE 10.2 ALLOCATION OF FLOORPSACE OPPORTUNITY FIGURE 10.23 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------- - - - - -- -- - - - --- --- - -- - -. 99 BY RETAIL, CLUSTER- --------------------------------- 77 FIGURE 10.24 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION -- 101 FIGURE 10.3 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL FIGURE 10.25 SITE OVERVIEW-------------------------------------- - - - - -- 101 POSITIONING------------------------------------ - - - - -- 78 FIGURE 10.4 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE FIGURE 11.1 MEGA BOX RETAILERS------------------------------ - - - - -- 103 ALLOCATION------------------------------------- - - - - -- 81 FIGURE 12.1 PETALUMA RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING - -- 1 1 2 FIGURE 10.5 SITE OVERVIEW---------------------------------- - - - - -- 81 FIGURE 12.2 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES--------------------------------- - - - - -- 1 1 3 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Recognizing, community perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc;, was commissioned. by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study was' toy assess and determine the missing pieces in Peta.luma''s retail offering., This purpose is accomplished by measuring the scope of ':opportunity for : introducing such retail functions that will redirect; recapture and harness healthy retail sales in Petaluma The study was prepared during the period' July to November 2003, and is augmented by a 'Consumer Survey to further gauge and quantify the magnitude of retail' leakage and voids. Findings of the report are based .on an evaluation of the current general level of Petaluma's economy and that of the surrounding Sonoma County and Marin County region at the time of study. These findings neither take into .account nor make provisions for the effect of any sharp rise or decline in local or general economic conditions: Accordingly,, the - report and recommendations are based on Thomas Consultants Inc.'s understanding of the status of the marketplace and of-respective competing retail centers, projects and 'facilities_ at the time of study preparation. Thomas Consultants Inc. does not' warrant that the identified recommended optimal retail mix and demand estimates will be achieved, but rather these.items were prepared conscientiously on the basis of information obtained during the course of the study and our experience in the planning and development or redevelopment of commercial real estate and planning projects. A regional examination was carried out in conjunction with discussions with local planning officials and real estate professionals. Reference material for this report was derived predominantly from the public and private sectors; government publications, taxable sales data and Thomas Consultants Inc. Additionally, the .Consumer Survey was performed ,in July and August 2003, in order' to gather` primary data regarding Petaluma's retail 'trade area spending patterns and'; preferences. It. was, not the intension of the is -study to address "Automotive Sales, Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," all of which are already performing well within: `Petaluma. Rather;, the study focuses on "Comparison" and "Convenience" retailing. As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither the name of Thomas Consultants Inc., nor the material submitted may be included in a prospectus or any printed material,, offerings or presentations, without the expressed permission of Thomas Consultants Inc. The material may only be utilized-for the purpose of reference by the City of Petaluma. If should also be noted that all recommendations put forth by this study are for planning purposes only, to provide direction for the optimal and appropriate evolution of retail functions throughout Petaluma. Accordingly,, due to economic flu_ ctuations, etc., Thomas Consultants Inc. does not warrant that any of the figures no in the study will materialize. Rather they are provided for guidance purposes. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page i M r� EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Petaluma is a sophisticated retail market that currently lacks the diversity of retail offering that other communities of similar size and composition enjoy. Recognizing perceptions that' Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is to assess and determine the missing pieces in Petaluma's retail offering. Thi's purpose is accomplished by measuring the scope of opportunity for introducing such retail functions that will redirect and re- capture healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey, which was undertaken in July and August 2003 to further gauge and quantify the magnitude of current retail voids and the resultant leakage. This summary section outlines the extent of retail leakage from Petaluma. It then proceeds to define the proposed solution by describing the following key inputs: • Specific market voids that need to be filled. • Demographic profile that indicate the type of retail tenants that best fill these voids. • Expenditure potential available to attract these tenants. • Retail trends and opportunities that provide the foundation for successful retail development. • The application of these points to the City of Petaluma across each of its existing and potential retail clusters. CONSUMER SURVEY To assess items such as the degree of retail sales outflow, consumer expenditure profile and consumer preferences, a detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during the period of July to August, 2003. The survey interviewed 400 people living within Petaluma and its surrounds. Highlights of the consumer survey results include: ➢ Onl 43% of respondents identified shopping centers in Petaluma as their regular "Primary Shopping Destination ". The alternative shopping destinations that are attracting local residents are shown in the accompanying graph. PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS Coddington Mall Other Shopping SR No Primary Centers 7% \ 8 % 3% Santa Rosa Plaza 7% Santa Rosa \ \ M arketplace 1% \c` Santa Rosax, Town Center s Village at Corte Madera 4% \ Town Center Corte 'Madera — 0.3% i / Northgate Mall � J SR 4% % Vintage Oaks N 'Downtown 2% — Novato 2% Petaluma Village Premium Outlets 13% Downtown Petaluma 9% Plaza.North PT 12% Washington �— Square PT 9% Expressway Plaza RP 1% Rohnert Park Wal -Mart Plaza 5% RP 8% Average $ Expenditure Per Month $171.33 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E1 The majority of respondents shop locally in Petaluma for their day -to -day Convenience needs (as opposed to Comparison shopping for. fashion, large ticket items and specialty goods). Whole foods was identified as the strongest convenience shopping destination as identified by - 25% of respondents. The next - strongest convenience centers were Downtown Petaluma and Washington Square. With regard to preferred retail formats and locations, Petalumans' reported the following: ➢ Preferred retail locations and formats include an even balance of preference to add new stores Downtown_ and close to Highway 101. ➢ "Streetfront Retail and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred shopping 'formats. ➢ The respondent profile. suggests that a balanced variety of value, mid- ranged and upscale specialty stores is desired. Retail Sales Retention & Leakage The most significant question of the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that occurs either inside or outside of Petaluma. The .most significant leakage is occurring for the following categories ranging from 50% to 100% leakage • Entertainment & Movies • Electronics /Computers • _Home Furnishings, Appliances .& Accessories • 'Clothing (Apparel) and - Footwear • Books,.Music (DVD's) & Media • sporting Goods, Toys & Habbies • National Full Service Restaurants %of Spending Made Outside Petaluma 100% 90/ �.S`�x .�T�'a t 3 ay c e;s�,- ..,�„ :v�l*t �- r�zw s� .S'S-� xa *3`;a�r ..a�' - ' ' , ` f 50% IN R N 2 r s5 z 4.r' x Sr a Ua ds i aI" $ . ass y'i F zx 20 / sx `. "' ra 'a�sa w �.'+,.r i r x fi r' v s" '+ -c 10 meat � _ °� �� •o` s sae e� ° Sp o ap . a'��� 0 ec'� 5 ° � ` S O as�tJD as �F s\a �� �� 0 w`r�9 ",.p �G r �s VI ato� pe p O`J9 GP ° `S °ca S �� a \ p �c e � Ga \e F Ga \ �F � � G •\ G pit' \e d• � G efl p o \° ° \e fie Se cl eo a \ G a \ G° Sp o mo d' c\a`o ��e a\oc The only Comparison Retail categories that are being retained within Petaluma include Specialty Retail and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma appears to be retaining between 60% to 75% of Convenience and Service Retail functions such as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified by respondents confirm the scope of retail voids and opportunities for Petaluma. Stores and services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: 0 Movie Theatre & .O,ther Entertainment Venues ❑ Discount Dept. Store /Dept. Store 0 Home Electronics & Computers Store Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E2 • 0 • Next most desired stores to add are: ➢ Clothing.(Apparel) /Footwear Books 9, Music (DVD's) & Media. Home Improvement & Garde:m ➢ Specialty Retail; Entertainment/ Leisure ➢ Local & National full Service Restaurants ➢ Casual, ' Pining Specialty Food Grocery. RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE 'In addition to the Consumer Survey, a detailed analysis was; made of taxable =sales occurring- within Petaluma. The. analysis indicates that' Petaluma's taxable transactions reached $369` million in 2001, with the major sales categories of Other Retail Stores ($84.4 million), General Merchandise ($64 million) and Restaurants ($67 million). It should be noted that these figures do not include "Automotive Sales, Servicing, 'Recreation Vehicles or Fueling ". Similarly, it should also be noted that most Grocery sales are non - Taxable and thus not recorded in the taxable sales data: ➢ The expenditure assessment indicates that Petaluma's PTA residents spent $369 million - on the categories under study in 2001. However, only '$172 million (47 %) of these purchases i were';made in the City. By contrast, over $197 million (53 %) of PTA residents' expenditure was made outside of Petaluma in 2001. ➢ On almost all categories, the City is achieving a net sales outflow. • 0 ➢ Restaurants represent the largest expenditure category included in this analysis, and this category demonstrates a substantial sales outflow. ➢ The retail categories with the greatest retail sales leakage (and hence: opportunity) include Home Electronics, Home Furnishings, Cinema and,Apparel. ➢ Specialty Retail is the only category to maintain a strong sales retention within the City. This likely indicates the effect of the influx of daytrippers. and tourists shopping in Downtown Petaluma's specialty stores rather than an indication of a complete specialty retail program within the city. $100.000.000 $90,000,000 $80,000,000 '$70,000.000 $60,000.000 $50,000,000 $30,000,Ooo 320;000.000 $10,000.000 $0 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $700.000,000 $50,000,000 $0 I ta Est. Saks 1—PTA , 'p PTA Expenditure Potential ®Est. Leakag from PTA 10 STA Ecpendrture Polenlia1 0 Est. Saks f r o m STA i Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E3 a p` - 4, Fla 9c o s P a` F 9 a G ax A P GQ a �d ` ps ��" Qa ° a ti ck a p ��z ic e e ` c4' "' o Qa F 0x` P cue e 09, ". * a s ��,� `a � 0 0 c � p4 F P. ♦a a o 4 , , C7 ° a F 5c ac s \\P QQ ca C , & P qQ , �a C � � cy 4 ' c as ` o F 0 �� 2 (b ) l$' REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION A key component of stemming the retail :sales leakage is to determine the current level of competition for retail spending in the area. Petaluma's neighboring communities possess more de.v,eloped retail environments, which can be summarized as follows: ➢ Rohnert Park, north of Petaluma is most* comparable in, ;retail infrastructure. ,However, Rohnert Park has a stronger representation of box value retailers (e.g. T'arg'et, Outdoor Pro. Shop,'Off ice Depot, etc.). The value offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. ➢ Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail formats, effectively appealing to a broad market segment. Regional malls, power centers and box retail- oriented strip centers dominate the retail landscape. The :variety of retail formats. accommodates a :multitude of national chain retailers, and reflects a '.'strong' ranking in all categories of the void analysis; The critical mass of branded /national, retailers, combined with., value prices generates the +strong destination, appeal for Santa Rosa. ➢ NovatolSan Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the e) ceptiom.of -the Electronics /Home Entertainment category. The majority of this retail -is 'focused in the Vintage Oaks retail center fronting Highway 101. Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of 'Lifestyle' oriented retailers, in a more pedestrian - oriented shopping environment. Specifically. Corde. Madera's 'Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle -to- upper price points (e.g. Village at Corde Madera). This retail offering and overall center profile is more comparable to the upscale shopping centers in San Francisco. ➢ Although 'approximately 9 %0 of retail sales made in- the communities between Corde Madera and Santa Rosa occurred' in Petaluma, per capita retdil. sales are lowest in Petaluma for these communities. � 1�wnas: �nruflan /s CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS In 2003, there are an estimated 1_.14 million sq. ft. of retail functions in Petaluma' today, of which about 775 sq. ft. are in shopping centers while the remainder are in Downtown and Streetfront retail areas. 0 Retail is sprawled across Petaluma with no distinct focal point. Downtown Petaluma is dominated by antiques & local specialty, retail. ❑ Retail outside of Downtown is dominated by "Convenience" and "Strip" retail'. ❑ Overall, Petaluma has a' limited offering of- National' Brand retailers and restaurants. ❑.Many ,of the few national tenants found in Petaluma occupy spaces at the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets that are hard to see and difficult to get to. 0 Petaluma does; not, have .the= variety , of retail formats that are evolving' in other communities of .similar size and demographic profile. PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT /REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL In. order to identify the optimal strategy for stemming retail sales leakage: from Petaluma, the City's component retail clusters were identified, including undeveloped areas - that have potential for future commercial, 'development. The entire retail infrastructure was analyzed ,simu.ltaneously to determine the 'optimal function' of each ,.cluster that would provide the most appropriate retail offering at the site ,as we'll as contribute the greatest synergy to the overall city .offering.,, 0 Petaluma Leakage &,Sustainable.RetailStrategy Study, June 20 Page E4 �6 The retail cluster sites include: • Downtown Petaluma West • Golden Eagle & Station RDA Site • Kenilworth /Fairgrounds Site • Petaluma Plazas. • Washington Scluar,.e • DSL /Ranier Site P.etaiuma'Village Factory Outlets • Redwood Center An evaluation of "retail suitability" and attractiveness of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail was prepared. This evaluation considers 15 individual retail site criteria in equal weighting, to consider site exposure, location, configuration and adjacencies. Highlights of this analysis, suggest the following: The 'Petaluma Plazas (85 %) site rated as the .best overall site for retail potential followed by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84 %) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle /Station RDA (60 %) and Washington Square (60 %) ranked in the middle of range. • Downtown .Petaluma West & the DSL /Ranier Site ranked in the lower half of the range. The weakest site was the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47 %) site. From a retail void analysis to identify retail functions and formats that are missing in Petaluma, the following retail opportunities are suggested for Petaluma: ➢ Large format general merchandise stores (e.g. Kohl's) ➢ Value apparel /footwear or discount department store (e.g. TJ Maxx,.Old Navy,'DSW Footwear, etc,) ➢ Large format house & home retailer (e.g: Container Store, Pier One, 'Linens `IN Things, etc.) Large format el'ectr'onics /home entertainment (e.g. Electronics, Circuit City, etc.) ➢ Lifestyle /bra.nded retailers (e.g. J.Crew, Eddie Bauer, Talbott, American Eagle Outfitters, etc.) DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE Having established the extent of the retail leakage from Petaluma, as well as the existing infrastructure and existing voids in the marketplace, the specific opportunity for the City, to pursue was further refined through demographic and expenditure analysis. Specifically, the detailed demographic and, spending habits of local residents were analyzed to determine the types of retail tenants that would garner the greatest appeal. When matching this "demand" information with the "supply" situation outlined in the void analysis, an optimal strategy is clearly defined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E5 Over 65,000 people reside within a 10 - minute drive from Downtown Petaluma and nearly 387,000 people live within a half -hour drive of Petaluma. Petaluma's retail trade area is comprised of a Primar Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000. people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people: The total trade area is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual' rate of 0,97 %, nearly identical to the national average: The PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.53% per annum. The, Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 1 1,000 new residents anticipated over the. next decade. Petaluma's demographic profile is highlighted as follows: ➢ Strong average, household incomes of °$75,000 or more. Well- educated adult population. ➢ - Larger ;than average-representation of 35 to 64 years olds. Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is estimated to be over $2.35 Billion. and is expected to increase to $2.68 Billion by 20136 The, PTA represents $659 million (28 %) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (72 %0). Total expenditure is expected to grow at over 1.29% per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is Convenience, particularly Supermarket spending; which will grow at 1.57 pe'r annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenditure will grow from $974 million, to $1,:.1 billion during this time period, while. expenditure -on Leisure is slated to.. grow from.:$ million to $382 million from 2003 to 2013. ic�A , � � ` xw�rvs � -- f'/Illdnt.0 uui Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development: Per capita expenditure 'on retail and leisure is ° well above. average in the PTA and STA, at 129 and 140% the national. average. Within the PTA the growing population base is .anticipated to be bolstered by an influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. The STA 'is not slated to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market. is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per capita expenditure, and thus represents a key market segment to entice to Petaluma. Additional sources of':miscellaneous sales inflow include purchases made by the estimated 30,00.0 employees that work in Petaluma and the visitors whom pass through 'Sonoma County. Employees are estimated to generate $ °4'8 million per year of retail and food /bevera_ge spending during their working hours, :of which about half is from employees who do not live within Petaluma. Although detailed figures are, not available just for visitors to Petaluma, visitors to overall Sonoma County and. Wine Country generate, approximately $667. million per year in retail and food/beverage spending. These spending segments are seen to be supplementary to the base of local resident trade area expenditure. FIGURE 8.4 POTENTIAL TARGET MARKETS ($ MILLION) '$667 $65 s $24 ® PTA; Residents,; a STA Residents! # ®Workforce `sS� a� ' ❑ Tourists $1;69 • _f 0 - Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable 'Retail Strategy Study, June 20All Page E6 RETOTRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES The vision for the evolution of Petaluma's retail offering should also draw from the current "state of the art" in retail programming and design. The following retail formats and new generation retailer types are currently driving North ner ixeJse �E nters ❑ Lifestyle & New Generation Retail Centers ❑ ' M'ain:Stireet Retail & Downtowns ❑ Hybrid Centers (Value, Lifestyle & Convenience) Ll Polarized Retail Centers ❑ Strategic Repositioning of Existing Centers ❑ Entertainment Themed Retail Centers Common, elements of these retail formats includes, ➢ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. ➢ Exploiting and, celebrating the local, organic lifestyle. ➢ Establishing the community social gathering place. ➢ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. ➢ Culture, arts and education play a' prominent role. ➢ Specialty food and .public markets are an attraction. ➢ Spaces are organized into a "Streetscape" setting:. ➢ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. ➢ New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. Investment architectural & landscape features is intense. Currently, the majority of these contemporary retail formats are not available 'in Petaluma, suggesting an opportunity to weave them into the retail fabric. • iF. PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY A market share /capture rate methodology was utilized to project the optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. This methodology involves applying realistic market capture rates against the Primary and Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each retail category in each individual retail cluster. The market share analysis indicates that with, the complementary and optimal retail positioning and mix irecomrnen led for each of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as 2i-31 million sqi ft. of vibrant retail functions within Petaluma: If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sqi ft.. is subtracted from this 'total demand estimate, the analysis indicates there iv an opportunity to add up to 1.17 million sq. ft. of new retail, functions (Comparison, Leisure and Convenience retail)'. This retail space could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per annum in retail sales for all of the Convenience, Comparison and Leisure categories. Of this amount, the _sales and . mix of potential retail capture for Petaluma would be as follows: $279.6 million /yr for Convenience Retail $391.4 million /yr :on Comparison Retail $1 million /yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants. Considering the :current estimated Comparison & :Leisure Retail capture is approximately $246 million /yr, the above figures suggest an a_Imost $250 million lift in Comparison Retail and Leisure sales;. in :other words a doubling. This would result in an additional $2.5 million. tax revenues annually, as well as the generation of 3,084 total direct new jobs in the City. The accompanying two illustrate the recommended optimal positioning and geographic location for each retail cluster in Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E7 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING POSITIONING STRATEGY DOWNTOWNtOMMERCIAL' RETAIN AND'ENHANCE FOOD AND.BEVERAGE; SPECIALTY RETAIL AND ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USE COMMERCIAL' REDEVELOP WITH MIXED -USE ABOVE, TO FRAME,ANDtBALANCE EAST SIDE OF RIVER AS PART OF DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY /TOURIST COMMERCIAL• ASSEMBLE AND DEVELOP AE REGIONAL - LARGER FOR MAT RETAIL.NODE TO;INT.RODUCE MISSING RETAILERS OF REGIC HIGHWAY /COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE EXISTING PETALUMA PLAZA AND WASHINGTON SQUARE P.ROOPERTIES WITH ADDITIONAL CRU. BABY BOX AND' RESTAURANTS ANDINTRODUCE ADDITIONAL:APPAREL RETAILER WI,T,H,ADJAGENT REL•ATED',CRU' -S COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE iCONVENIENCEAND ey SERV ICES D' INCORPORATE HEALTH,AND`WELLNESS <� LAND USE INFILL/ ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT MIX -OF LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET- ORIENTED' RETAILERS IEW'DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT. NATIONAL AND EGIONAL.RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED "WITH A BYBRID OF "BABYBOX" RETAURANT`AND A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT SUPERMARKET AND PHARMACY ANCHORED WITH BLEND OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES • Petaluma Leakag Sustainable RefaifSfrafe St June 20 Page 'E8. g 9Y DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES IVortherrm Raj 501e Rd ♦ i ��� Q e a� as : �� e � O RETAIL SITES a 1. Dowtown 2. Golden Eagle 3. Fairgrounds v. 4. Petaluma 'Plazas o . y 5. Washington Square b. DSL/Rainie'r< ,� ♦ 4, 7. Petaluma Village Factory Outlets y B. Center T 9 Osh /Orchard Plaza TWO 1`0 (5&G ' Site Orb 11 Petaluma Gateway 12. Lakeville Highway 1 -3. Yardbirds,..Plaza � a 1:4. Arroyo Center a - MAP KEY Highway Commercial e . Downtown Commercial' /.Mixed -Use 'Strip Commerical z Community Commercial P Tourist Commercial .O w 2 Peta /uma!s .Central' Ga+t A ., , m Was ►ngton V. s ` �Retalt Cacridor ac:cavuma i awic'+s�.sr °�' • . ' U . SP � a r. '�'b,�.a t / m f Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page E9 1. INTRODUCTION Recognizing community perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned by the, City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail 'b ea kage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is. to assess and determine the missing pieces in Petaluma's retail offering: This purpose is accomplished, by ,measuring the 'scope of opportunity for introducing such retail functions that will redirect,- recapture and harness healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a Consumer Survey, which was undertaken in July and August, ;2003 "to further gauge and quantify the, magnitude of retail leakage and voids. 1.1 PROGRAM OBJECTIVES The study was guided by the following objectives: 1) To assess and establish the overall size of the retail market and various trade area segments within this market. 2) To undertake, consumer research to verify the degree of retai_I sales outflow and. to determine how people spend their shopping leisure; dollars, where and why. 3) To :establish 'the appropriate amount of space on a category - by- category basis-, as well - as optimal retail mix and positioning for Petaluma's various retail clusters, with specific attention to the Downtown ,and'. Highway clusters. 4) To identify specific retail tenant types that realistically fit the functions recommended from the retail opportunity assessment, and identify key locations where these retailers should be placed, as well as their general economic impacts.. 5) To assist the City in Identifying and Undertaking Implementation. Actions, Strategies & Tactics to activate the recommended retail strategies. r Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page I 1.2 KEY STUDY CONSIDERATIONS The study also addresses the following key considerations: • Market Research by City Retail Clusters: '..Downtown, Petaluma Boulevard North. corridor, -East Washington corridor (east of Lakeville to Highway' 101'), McDowell Boulevard cluster (two blocks north and south of intersection with East Washington), and` other clusters as identified by ,consultant. • Sales Leakage by Merchandise Type: Research the available discretionary and non = discretionary spending of the Petaluma community and. available market 'trade to `identify the retail g.aps,vo ds and to allow development of a palette of retailers to "stop leakage ". • Analysis for Attracting `Gap Retailers; Identification of locatonal strengths for attracting, missing retailers. • Retail Demand,.'Potential Business A_ trraction: Recognizing that Downtown Petaluma is a key contributor to the. City's economy and' a major focus of City investment in economic and policy terms securing .:Downtown Vitality- protects this investment and is an identified priority of the City. A- sizable= portion of sales from .general merchandisers have the potential to overlap existing- local specialty retailers, increasing potentially adverse ,impact of "cannibalization" of existing sales. Identification' of new stores that concentrate on specific product lines not currently locally available will keep shoppers in town, reducing leakage. The: resulting Retail Strategy Study, indicates the timing necessary to insure that Petaluma is able to target those specialty lines ,least likely to cannibalize local retailers and therefore most likely to provide a net sales 'tax increase, with minimal undesirable side effects. : • Nei Benefit of Various to Locale Economy. Annual Economic Impact by Retail Store Type — Recommended Me.6sur,es to: Insure Compatibility with Existing Retail Sales Tax Base: It, is the 'intent that we maximize the "net" public revenue from retail sales gains, rather than "cannibalize" existing retailers. Maximizing the revenue increase from new retail will require targeting retail outlets with product lines price ranges not currently available in 'Petaluma. The intent is to avoid simply shifting from one store to. another. List of Preferred Retailers to Bridge the Existing Gap: It is recognized that filling the gaps in 'the 'existing array is more immediately critical, than supplementing Petaluma's "general merchandise" offerings. Site Selection- &- 'Redevelopmen't. Potential Identification of sites that maximize economic' potential to retailers that also maximize economic - a lvantages to ;Petaluma. Identification of sites within, and routside of, the Redevelopment .Areas capable of providing economic synergy with Downtown. Sites are identified and appropriate development guidelines prepared to allow marketing of the sites to targeted' retailers. It is understood that functions+ of site assembly and marketing will be addressed through' the City redevelopment and economic development teams. It is riot the intension. of the study to address "Automotive Sales, Servicing, .,Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," all of which are already' performing well within, Petaluma. Rather, the study focuses on "Comparion" and "Convenience" retailing. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 2 0 • Another key objective of the Retail Strategy Study is to position Petaluma's various retail clusters to be complementary to one another, and exploit their specific "points of difference" from existing and planned retail competition elsewhere. In so doing, Petaluma must capitalize on "its strategic geographic position in the marketplace, and fill the "gaps" and "voids" for retail merchandise,'p:rice point's, ,dining and entertainment alternatives in the sub- ;region. 1.3 STUDY PROCESS Figure 1.1 illustrates the study process that was undertaken over the period from July to November 2003. The work program unfolded over four stages. On October 2 nd , an interim presentation of preliminary findings was made to Senior City Staff for feedback and input. On October 3` the Economic Development Committee of the Chamber of Commerce was provided with a preliminary presentation of the Consumer Survey results. It should be noted that all recommendations put forth by this study are for planning purposes only, to provide direction for the optimal -and appropriate evolution of retail functions throughout Petaluma. Accordingly, due to economic fluctuations, etc., Thomas Consultants lnc., does not warrant any of the figures noted in the study will materialize, rather; they are provided for guidance purposes. This report summarizes all key findings and recommendations of the analysis and culminates in a'series of "Retail Positioning Recommendations and Strategies" for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. FIGURE 1.1 STUDY PROCESS Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 3 1� rj 2. RETAIL LAND USE POLICIES & ISSUES 2.1 INTRODUCTION Retail functions play a key role; in the City of Petaluma's evolution. Retail binds other mixed -use function's together to create a vibrant rand dynamic environment. Petaluma's Draft General Plan 2025. includes retail uses as a significant function in the plan because of its ability to define ; urban subareas and its ability to generate local sales tax. The City's commercial. uses developed historically along Petaluma Boulevard and 'Lakeville Highway, with access from Highway 101. In'the:'last few decades, businesses have located along East Washington Street and McDowell Boulevard. These four corridors are Petaluma's - major commercial areas, which comprise an estimated. ;8 % of the': City's total land area (2001). Strip Commercial uses comprise .219 acres (3 %) and Shopping Center account for 134 acres (2 %) of land uses. As shown in Figure 2.1, Petaluma's current Land Use Plan (as per the Draft General Plan 2025 Figure 4 -1) identifies that the retail /commeecial land uses (i.e. Strip Commercial and Shopping Center) are concentrated in the high exposure areas such as US Highway, '1.01, 'Washington Street, Petaluma Boulevard, and McDowell Boulevard. Commercial functions have historically evolved at these locations due to the access to US 1:;.01. �f`orrsraiarits: s 2.2 PLANNING SUBAREAS There are twelve planning subareas that comprise Petaluma's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). 'The °fo.11owing planning subareas are summarized from the 'Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025 to help identify the land use and development direction of the retail commercial functions for the City. The retail /commercial land use and building intensity is highlighted in Table 2.1, and identifies the Petaluma Planning Sub -Areas with stronger concentrations and/or opportunities for retail commercial development or redevelopment. The Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025 descriptions of retail and .leisure only go as far as defining "Strip Commercial" and "-Shopping Center." Accordingly, a key objective of this Retail Leakage and Strategy Study is to 'provide further direction for defining. different. types of complementary retail /leisure areas and projects across the City of Petaluma, and'to incorporate the missing voids. 2.3 PETALUMA'S RETAIL. CLUSTERS WITH DEVELPOMENT OR REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Figure '2.2 identifies the various- retail clusters in Petaluma that "subsequent sections of this study make reference to. Section 10 culminates with the .recommended retail positioning and mix strategy for each retail structure. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20� Page 4 • 0 TABLE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB - AREA .: .... ,. . x.. :N... CE f.. NTRAL. .. -.., _ `v' F _ . ,......, ,. .. ...r.. x ` ... y f LAKfY1LLE . ,.. w., ,...:.£.. .._. � :.s.'. !ii •2-.�£ a ., z .#+... z .... -. ., .. ...+,. `rat NORTH.,. -._ , fr^ -!: ..� e_ N...," ,; ,:.. ,. .., xfr _7. 3 3 w.. g � va.. ... .... ...:. ... .. .. .. ...., g gr,. tJILDING.INTEN5ITY x ., . 4 , PETALUMA r.w � .._.,. � ,�...r -. . � ,� �aNORTH.�nY � .- PAY.RAN- . ..., _ ,. �>�,,,,. ,, �.. PETAL`UMA". � .0 � �, PETAL UMA_. �' fi + „ ., <. s.. SOUTHw,o _ ._. � �- .: , ;:, SOUTH �� .x.,�Y rv- q., W ,. .. , . a : �`� .F, .xR, , . SPECIFIC PLAN.... .. tiH:wr ", .,. ,., _ ffi�' .4 �...�..�... ..,.. x .. � _... ..� U..,F.. 4 _. T ... :�• ,�... �.. . .,.. _. �.. ..< M, JLEY. .�, -: { _•. �° ...,; BLVD.<NORTH ,Y..,, ,.... ...,: f _: ,. Ss� ,"'»d .� ,. ,s BLV.DµS z ...,... , F .. d`a.FS r: 3 F,#+„ ,vin, . '�-... , .,� . � �.,... -.; LS.. ID. �.� P, <__:.�_., .s:? w w<- o.. ,.� ., - .,�...... ;nri ,� � � .�...- G �n?4 .;.dal x°`f, ....,. fl `: ��� Strip C_o_mmericaP S uare Feet 9-- 551,669 8 ,351 -. 0 Tfi4,299 27,041 684,185' 20,648 2,780 0 Acres 42:2 1.3 00, 31.7 , 1.7 76:7 6.1' 0:4 00 f AF 030 O:T4 0:00 0.12 0.37 0.20, 0:08, 0..17 0:0.0 SF'opping'.Ger,ter_ S uare Feel 220,535 47 „136 74,236. 89 0 297,904 0. 34,321 0 Acres 12.5 3.0 7.1 _ 7.2 0.0 36-41- 0.0 2.9 _ 0:0 FAR 0.4 0.37 0:24 _ 0.29 01 01 0.27 - 0 KEY RETAIL CONCENTRATION PLANNING SUB -AREAS The following commercial land use opportunity areas are suggested by the Petaluma Draft General Plan 2025: CPSP - OPPORTUNITIES. Extensive vacant and underutilized sites with potential for in fill or reuse; 'Basin Street projects (vertical mixed -use) may set tone for future r'iverfront development near Downtown.. - NORTH MCDOWELL BLVD - OPPORTUNITIES: Intensification of commercial, office, and light industrial sites; availability of vacant or underutilized land (77 acres).. PAYRAN- MCKINLEY - OPPORTUNITIES: Large amount of vacant land along Petaluma River; Redevelopment of parcels immediately adjacent to. Petaluma Blvd North. PETALUMA BLVD NORTH - OPPORTUNITIES: Vacant land with development potential and /or intensitification available along east side of Petaluma Blvd if floodway improver ents..are undertaken. WASHINGTON CORE= OPPORTUNITIES: Relocation of Fairgrounds will allow the redevelopment of this prime site; Reuse and intensification of Kenilworth Jr. High School; Potential infill o:f mall commercial uses along East Washington Street. WEST - OPPORTUNITIES: Economic development and redevelopment opportunities in Downtown; Appropriate inf ill and adaptive reuse. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 5 FIGURE 2.1 PETALUMA BUILDING INTENSITY BY PLANNING SUB -AREA 7. s . � Single Family Residential d 3 � \s x 7 ' ♦ Multifamily Residential w 1�� rt�U Senior�Housing - A Strip Commercial All \a. 1 � " �♦ f ~� Shopping Center -- ` k k } _ h ` " �♦ , i ��.. - i Heavy Commerciai' f b 1 3 ^ J ,2 ♦ f� ♦ � d' . 1 Motel /Hotel s Office_ , ,P' ,q. n T _ r ,. r. ,� _. � .. � ♦♦ x ' x y Mixed Use A w a Educational ,{ 7 Park/Recreation .�� 4 T Private Recreation J I Heavy Industrial s � L light Industrial Warehouse r Agricultural i ,t Fioodw.+y Vacant Land L ------ Urban Growth Boundary j T r 'Cii Limits v River and Creeks 4 , � - l,. \. x h 1 a ° - a l•6 f fia :1,-ea �`` x { / 3., SOURCE: CITY OF PETALUMA, DRAFT GENERAL- PLAN 2025 • . PetdlvT Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 6 FIGURE 2.2 CITY OF PETALUMA RETAIL CLUSTERS: POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND REDEVELOPMENT SITES w� F 1+ r REDWOOD .' L« ti cgQ� CENTER ' $ I TE Ra msvllle Rd a ? bS. %i1NIER _ �. SITE Mgf36c) n Rd U i Ava �T PETA�.UMA PLAZAS;' a; SOOtH, UVASHINGTONSQUARE 4 4 Y --' 1 u J Skillman Ln. - c� - t i?4 �101i'� � �+'` f �I • u ry R f l k b ", ACTORY t3 1 QUT ET� ` r' a Petaluma Eastman Lp - k..! Eodegadwe v� Gake i ` v f n � Y _ L ^f � helen wit, u ReglonallPSrk DOWNTOWN GCtCt3EN PETALUMA • :, DEPOT /S 0:2001 hAorosoit,Cap.-Al rights reserved f RIN Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 7 I a o 3 c� 116 AGLE CENTER;k `,' ATIOI AS;ITE Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 7 SUITABILITY TO INCORPORATE NEW RETAIL The retail cluster sites identified in Figure 2.2 include: *Downtown :Petaluma West , Golden Eagle & Station. RDA Site •Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site *Petaluma: Plazas *Washington :Square •DSL /Ranier Site •Petdiuma Village Factory Outlets •Redwood. Center Table 22 Evaluates the. "retail suitability" and attradiv.ehess of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail uses that are not currently available in Petaluma. This evaluation considers 1,5 'individual retail. site criteria in equal weighting. Out of a total best possible score of 75, site: suitability scores ranged from 45 to 63. Highlights of this analysis suggest the .following: • The Petaluma Plazas (85 %) site rated as the best overall site for additional "retail potential closely followed . by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84 %) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle/Station RDA (76 %) and Washing Square ( 75 % .ranked the _ next strongest fore adding new retail functions. Downtown Petaluma. West (60 %) & the DSL /Ranier Site (60 9 /6) ranked in, the middle of the range. The weakest site was the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47 %) site. SABLE 2.2, RETAIL SUITABILITY EVALUATION. OF POTE DEVELOPMENT & REDEVELOPMENT SITES • Petaluma Leakage &Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 8 r i."`i ��i` - t „ .w i t 'F P l t u " 1Yw X r r �� i Pi SIT E y a 3 t pl n - CHARACTERISTIC, .;. d m : LL N m' aci 1 yWEAKEST SCORE r w c Q; o 2 STRONGEST ° 3 3 ;' SCORE 0 a ' p �Y'i O. y �' ��, C9 tn." VISIBILITY & EXPOSURE Local 5 5 5 5 4 ... 3 1 4 ... -_ Regional 2 2 5 5 4 5 5 5 ACCESSIBILITY: Local Access 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 Regional Access 1 3 5 5 5 1 1 5 Access to Transit 5 5 5 5; 5 3 1 3 LOCATION: Location Proximity to Mayor Arterial Road 4 5 3 5 5 2 2 4 Proximity to Hwy Interchange 1. 2 5 5 4 1 i 5' LAND USE ADJACENCIES: Proximity to:Retail 5 4 P ro to Employment 4 _ 3 3 3 2 4 1 5 Pro ximity to Residential 4 4 2 4 5 3 1 3 SITE _ m Site Size 1 5 5 5, 4 3 5 3 u _ Site Shape 2 ._ _ 4 n _5_ 5 4_ 3 2 -- _5— Site Frontage 5 4 a3. 5 ..� _ ._ 2 ___ REDEVELOPMENT AVAILABILITY: Flexibility of Tenure 1 3 4 1 1 5 5 5 Imme di ate . Avail abil ity for _ _.... — — Development/Redevelopment 1 3 4L 1 1 5' 5 .5 "; TOTAL SCORE 45 57 63 6456 ; 45 35 ;x x PERCENTAGE?OFa75 a'60 %; s n7 ° 6/ 8_ ° a o'' 85/ 75 % 60% ' 47 % 84% OF SITES - v iRANKIPIG 4, 5 6 2. • Petaluma Leakage &Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 8 r 3. I'PTALUMA RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW 3.1 INTRODUCTION Understanding the region's retail and leisure infrastructure is necessary to gauge its potential competitive influence on the City of `P.etaluma's retail offering and its,retail leakage concerns. The characteristics of other centers will,,also help determine voids and opportunities for the appropriate merchandising and tenant mix strategy for the various' retail' sites within Petaluma. Given the purpose of this study and project context of Petaluma, the competitive analysis will focus on the key shopping centers and retail districts /precincts outside of Petaluma. The section begins with a_n overview. of Petaluma's retail functions, highlighting trends in the local marketplace, followed by a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the major retail nodes and retail districts /precincts outside of Petaluma. Each major retail center.. and /or retail district /precinct will be assessed on the following elements: ➢ Location and Context ➢ General Physical Characteristics ➢ Overall Merchandising Offering ➢ Tenant Mix ➢ Price Point Potential Competitive Influence (.7xrawaanrr 3.2 GENERAL RETAIL TYPES The activity of shopping can be categorized into three general types: Convenience, Comparison, and Leisure. These general shopping types are also associated to a shopper's or customer's trip purpose. A customer's shopping trip purpose. is typically influenced by factors such as merchandise selection, quality, 'price point and overall shopping experience. This is translated into a shopping center's des,'tination appeal. It is riot the intension of the is study to address "Automotive Sales . Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," all of 'which dre already performing well .within Petaluma:, Rather, the study focuses on "Comparison" and "Convenience" retailing: "Convenience Retail" facilities are defined as venues that feature merchandise (e.g. groceries, personal. /professional se rvices,. deli bakery, etc.) that satisfy the average. ;customer's daily needs. Convenience needs are frequent and appeal to a very localized area. On, the other hand, "Comparison Retail" facilities feature merchandise on which patrons typically compare prices, especially for `big ticket' items such as electronics home entertainment equipment, home furnishings, fashion, etc. Shoppers for this merchandise type are willing to drive farther distances to satisfy their needs for quality and price satisfaction. Activity for this `shopping type' is less frequent than Convenience shopping, but attracts shoppers from a broader region. Additionally, "Leisure ", which includes "Restaurants" and "Entertainment," are also examined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 9 NI Leisure based venues such as cinemas, restaurants, and other entertainment related activities are strongly driven by destination appeal. Patrons seeking leisure oriented activities can be motivated, to drive longer distances to satisfy their entertainment' - heeds (as is further illustrated in the Entertainment Retail Trend Profiles presented in Section 5). Although ; the visits to such venues are less frequent, customers are originating from a larger trade area. Overall, the patronage rate of all shopping formats is influenced by a shopping venue's perceived destination appeal. Although Convenience centers only cater to daily.needs and are typically considered `chore sl oppingpretail formats today are evolving, to accommodate multipurpose functions in order to satisfy a broader ranger in needs and. wants of its customers. FIGURE 3.1 GENER- AL,RETAIL TYPES' Broad Region J J11M Infrequent Local Co«sr,rttanls 3 Frequ 3.3 PETALUMA RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE The City of Petaluma's existing retail infrastructure can be categorized into two key segments, .speci:alty merchandise in the Downtown area (Le. antiques, art galleries apparel accessories, etc:) and convenience: goods services surrounding Downtown Petaluma. Petaluma's retail is also sprawled throughout the city, lacking a major destination shopping facility for comparison merchandise. Downtown Petaluma. (and its immediate surrounds) has an estimated 362;000 sq. ft. of retail, restaurant, and entertainment /leisure, functions. Nearly all of Downtown Petaluma's� specialty and apparel m erchants are local operators, with - a minimal representation of national /branded retailers. Given the specialty =nature. =of - Downtown's overall retail offering, this -precinct is not considered destination for comparison merchandise:. Retail outside of the Downtown area is primarily comprised of community -scale convenience strip centers that serve the everyday needs of local residents. These strip centers. (e.g. Petaluma. Plaza, Plaza North, Washington Square, Golden Eagle, Petaluma Gateway) are 'less than 201, 1 000 sq. ft. each, and are typically anchored by supermarkets and /or department stores. As shown in Table 3.;1, there are approximately 775,000 sq, ft. of convenience - oriented retail functions in Petaluma. Due to the `convenience' nature of the retail infrastructure, the majority customers, for such strip are typically within 3 miles of the retail center. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 10 TABLE 3.1 MAJOR PETALUMA RETAIL CENTERS .., :. �;... ,,,, , ;."" e �v . , i., RETAIL CENTER ate _ .y.,z� .... -..Y: .:: 5... ..R- - .., - x .. (.,. +L M 4-,.., Y ; ,.. a . , �'� x ... +: r ";" ,..; EST.. SIZE :GLA ..�� t. 4�5.. ytkh m. .rid. .., 3. ,.q4 is� .. e.'7 . .:.ReS_'1� £ +'4W k F 3 S `iW « 'ax - . ,, :a �... r , «>r xX -.. }r. :. _.S.t, ... :,:... «. vi m _u RETAIL. _� . � t « , . ,.z, �,.:.,:. �. a.. s .<... «x :4� ....r ..... ,-, \.. -. -. .,, Y, �i 4..+.r. aA .� e .... al+` ..,,.. {/ ,.._...- $.� 9x..a .. a .,,. e: t� -. +1- *.A•Y i -.v ... Sv I ..i+w .,,w.. ..s .: ... f. k'.. • T .. .`1' ,?P n'af?K.::i.:a.. PETALUMA SOhl.OMA�000NTY " .." �.. ;�- a" ry 4,.w .::,v�.���n.:�. E. Washington St/ Petaluma Plaza 129,000 Community Strip JCPenney, Ross, Big 5 Sports. McDowell Blvd Plaza ,North McDowell Blvd/E. Madison 1 40,000 Community Strip Big K -Matt SEC McDowell Blvd/ Washington Square 1.60 ' 000 Community Strip Safeway, Mervyn's, Staples. 'Washington St cDoWe Orchard Shopping Center E 75,000 Community Strip Orchard Supply Hardware d Hwy Lakeville Blvd / - Petaluma Gateway 75,000 Community Strip Albertson''s Caufield'Ln Petaluma Village Stoney Point Rd 196,000 Outlet Mall Off 5th - Saks. Fifth Outlet Premium Outlets ,Avenue ABOVE RETAIL 4 M AJOR CENTERS = 775,000 SO, FT. + .EST. DOWNTOWN,.;STREETFRONT & IMMEDIATE SURROUNDS 362,000 SQ.FT. ESTIMATED TOTAL PETALUMA INVENTORY (EXCL. AUTOMOTIVE) 1,137,000, SQ. FT., • RETAIL IS SPRAWLED ACROSS PETALUMA WITH NO DISTINCT FOCAL POINTS OR STRUCTURE. • DOWNTOWN IS 'DOMINATED BY ANTIQUES & LOCAL SPECIALTY RETAIL. • OUTSIDE DOWNTOWN IS DOMINATED BY CONVENIENCE /STRIP RETAIL. • SOME OF BEST RETAILERS AT OUTLET CENTER ARE HARD TO GET TO. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 1 1 Due to Petaluma's less developed retail infrastructure, local residents are driving to more established markets such as Santa Rosa (Sonoma County), Novato (Marin County.) and Corte Madera (Marro County) to satisfy their shopping needs; especially for value -related merchandise. 3.3.1 PROPOSED KEY RETAIL PROJECTS Petaluma's retail landscape is 'evolving, and there has been new retail development interest in the City. Some of the new retail developments are highlighted as follows The DSLIRainier site, along North McDowell Boulevard (just west of Washington Street), is proposed to accommodate a 1 83,000 sq. ft. :community retail center, anchored by a 13.4;000 sq. ft. home improvement /garden store. Ancillary retail "functions will comp: rise °the remainder reiai.l,- floorspace. Redwood ' Gateway 'Center, proposed by Robertson. Properties; is located at the former Pacific Theaters site on' North McDowell Boulevard. This 156,000 sq. 'ft. center will be' anchored by a 95,000 sq, ft. Kohl's, and supported by other ancillary retail uses. Basin Street Town Center is a .mixed -use development` in Downtown Petaluma, comprised of approximately 20,000 sq ff. of retail. and service functions in a. retrofitted historic: building. The project is located on a high profile site in proximity to high pedestrian traffic. and will have onsite parking. �cvs�d�aarr s 0 Basin Street Landing (.67,000 sq ft.) is also a mixed -use project in Downtown Petaluma adjacent to the Petaluma. River. The project will integrate 25,0Q0 'sq. ft. of .retail, restaurant and offices, along with, 43 apartment units on the second and third floors. Both Basin Street projects will be the first of their 'kind for Petaluma, creating an integrated, pedestrian- oriented environment for local residents. Whole Foods is currently undergoing a 7,000 sq. ft. expansion, with a scheduled completion in February/March 2004. Some of the improvements include an. expanded produce department, additional food items, and 'parking. 3.4 CITY OF PETALUMA -VOID ANALYSIS The City of Petaluma's major retail centers were assessed over 1'2 retail and leisure categories to, determine the potential. market voids' in the local marketplace.. Looked at another .way, these voids represent the key opportunities for introducing missing retail functions into Petaluma. Comparing the demographic and expenditure profiles, (in the subsequent sections) 'with the retail void analysis, provides directions for the .optimal 'market positioning and merchandising strategy for the various retail sites, being considered by the City. As shown in Table- 3:2, this .qualitative analysis ranks the noted retail /leisur6 categories by overall selection and quality. Petaluma Leakage &. Sustainable. Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 12 • •. TABLt 3 .2 CURRENT RETAIL OFFERING VOID ANALYSIS - CITY OF PETALUMA Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 13 ���• _ _ � ..vII�VI1Y111�111{.• Not applicable to regional mall or specialty center retail formats. Limited Representation = STR:ONG OPPORTUNITY Moderate Representation= MODERATE OPPORTUNITY IN Strong Representation = LIMITED OPPORTUNITY The following highlights the salient findings of the void analysis: ➢' With. the exception of Downtown Petaluma and Petaluma Village. Premium Outlets, the City's retail 'infrastructure is convenience- oriented, and lacks the comparison merchandise that would attract destination shoppers. ➢ Downtown retail is heavily oriented toward specialty merchandise, and lacks the merchandise selection to create an overall shopping destination draw. National/Brand ed retailers are not present in the Downtown m 'ar'ket, resulting in a more regional appeal for certain specialty retail categories such as antiques. The retail categories including Sporting Goods and Dectronics/Home .Entertainment are. weakly "represented in the .local marketplace, and Likely results in retail leakage to more established retail for these categories. ➢ Petaluma Village Premium Outlets offers the best selection in brand. names within the City, and is likely a_ key shopping destination for fashion appprel/footwear/accessories merchandise. Thee are : a limited number of large format or box retailers within- -the City. Given the ongoing popularity of value retail goods, this retail format would serve to .attract significant 'retail shopper trafficfrom a regional scale. Overall, the City of Petaluma's retail infrastructure, is limited to two formats, `Main Street style' specialty goods, and Convenience Strip Centers (supermarket .anchored). Given that other neighboring and more established retail markets (i.e. Santa 'Rosa, Rohnert Park, etc.) feature: other retail formats with a wide selection of branded 'merchandise, customers are drawn #o these centers /precincts and establish. shopping, patterns around them. As such, Petaluma's .retail role_ and function. becomes perceived as a destination for specialty merchandise or convenience /service goods. • Petaluma Leakage &, Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 4 age 14 • 4.0 REGIONAL RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW The retail market has been experiencing minimal increases in general store sales over the last year. Large format or box retail development is continuing its dominance in new development in the region. Local commercial brokers report that the Sonoma County Highway 1.01 Corridor could experience 'up to 800,00.0 ;sq. ft of additional retail developments over the next several years if planned projects are approved. Regional and national retailers seeking development sites include Target, Kohl's, Lowes Home Improvement, Home Depot, Staples, Pier 1 Imposts, .Office Depot, sporting goods, home electronics; and discount apparel categories. The overall lack in viable zoned retail sites and. tenant demand for optimal locations have increased land values for 5 to 15 acre sites to $14 p.s.f. to $20 p.s.f. Lease /rental rates for "prime" locations have reflected similar increases, ranging from $25 - $36 p.s.f. per annum (triple net). For example, a recently developed Safeway anchored strip. center development in Santa Rosa is commanding up to $42 p.s.f. per annum (triple net) for shop space. In contrast Petaluma is achieving $25 $36 p.s.f. per annum (triple net) for similar retail space. For new,. larger retail users (e.g. Supermarkets), average lease /rental rates of approximately $16 - $17 p.s:f: per annum (triple net) are being achieved. Overall, as the region's population and incomes increase; an increasing number of national and /or regional retars ile will be seeking potentially `untapped' second -tier markets to enter. 4.1 KEY CENTERS IN SONOMA COUNTY & NORTH MARIN COUNTY The location of the neighboring communities (to Petaluma) with more- established retail infrastructure is illustrated in Figure 4.1. These °communities are all within a 35 minute drive time of Petaluma. Table 4.1 highlights the estimated size, format, and anchors 'of the major retail centers to the north. 4.1.1 ROHNERT PARK The City of Rohnert Park is just north of Petaluma and is within a short drive time.. This community's retail infrastructure is comparable to Petaluma's convenience retail offering (i.e. strip centers with supermarkets, drugstores, services,..fast food restaurants, etc:); but is also represented by some large format retailers (e.g. Target, Costco Wholesale, Burlington Coat Factory, Office Depot, Big 5 Sports, JoAnn's Fabrics, etc;). Despite the presence of box retailers, Rohnert Park's overall retail offering is either convenience or value merchandise. As shown in Figure 4.2, there is no major shopping destination for comparison merchandise and /or specialty retail goods, and is considered a second tier retail market. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 15 FIGURE 4.1 NEI;GHBOR(NG COMMUNITIES WITH ESTABLISHED RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 16 TABLE 4.1 NORTH REGION RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE (SONOMA► COUNTY) t t7'^ y._ _ .,. aF <�.v x. - 3 - -- m*`,.. .. -. ., ..__.. ., h e .>. .:,. e.. .:.. .., _...:. ..... «, , >\ h''P4 ...... ry ..>•3 ., -.NCF ..,, r. . '3a ,- RETAIL�CENTER a , r v .:i -. $ - .. « .r 1 a. _ E GIGA- ...v t.. ,3..... a ,.. smf^ -F; v,.bi .:... : fie'.. -. a+.;. w " $ -wy' ..e .,.- W ux .. .. . P r l'. xr^h. i- s... ...., ... - "P RETAIL.: ..:.- ' -. ^t -. ,.u. "ror r'N'�,d... +e.. ..C._ _ d s a v .- 3 3?. k ""NON , r cg ,�.;..� � • . _.�. � �..:, `N - ... .. _., ,, rr-"• _ .","'� T z. =.�... 3 ... ,`'3..1 - :1;,.. .., «.. -...n '!' .. 2. � ��:+'.�'- .. F m ,,, ......, .. _.. � ' .+.,_.. - �.,� �.� =. . '£ i, °y, nv3., �� �._4x n�,x.7?�?:�� e F xr..=ay: ,✓: Y-fi xt 7"A` ,€" . .x. "§ .:; - .r%a,x.., --.. ..,.,_ P ,,:'• �ki . ,.: ^ t �y, =, RQHNERT PARK- ,:SON ; , i �,,ti , : u V �� . -.. , �� 4 .. .._� •vnm. .. x ,. - 'Yr. -, ,- a. .:� ... - t+� ,.. k+"t' �.', l � .. M °r. .. ..., ��. . -'. �✓. �. - i u - x t ., .:3' Y i 5� ;., -. > -,,., •3 .__ S a. ._ ," ♦ -..,_ m., ..._.. .. _:.... North Ba Center Expressway Blvd/ y 75 Community Strip Albertson's, Rite -Aid' Commerce St Expressway Blvd/ Park -Plaza Commerce St' 86;00,0 .Community Strip Safeway, Longs Drugs Target-Center g SWC' Expressway/ 150 Community Strip -Target, Burlington Coat Factory Redwood Bvlds , ,Un -Named Stri p Center Expressway Blvd/ 100,000 Community Strip Valley Furniture Big 5' Sports Redwood Dr' Costco Wholesale Hwy 101 /Redwood Dr 1`00,000 Stand Alone Box N/A SONOMAwCOUNTY -'�'� Coddingtown Mall Cleveland Ave/ 964;000. Regional Mall Gottschalks JCP:enne Mac s , ' Bi 5 y' y ' Big '5 Rd Sports, Ralphs. Santa Rosa Marketplace Santa Rosa Ave/ 5;,36,000 Power Center Costco Tar et 'S ort Mart y g p B est Bu ;; Kawana Springs Rd' Office Depot Mar`shcdl's Santa Rosa Southsde. Santa Rosa Ave/ 200 Community Strip Cost Plus World Market, REI. Sports, Toys Hwy 101 R Us Santa Rosa Town Center Santa Rosa Ave / 135,000 Community Strip Bed Bath 8� Beyond, Comp USA Borders y p ' Burt St Books, The Good Guys Santa Rosa Plaza Hwy 101 /3rd St 700,000 Regional Mall Macy's, Mervyn's Sears Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2604 Page 17 FIGURE 4.2 ROHNERT PARK MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE AAtllbrae.Rv$ f 4 �,X 3 ® finer: - park- Ent rise Dr en V © S t '}1 _ yyrr REGIONAL /SUPERREGIONAL MALL cal � I 4 0` ' 'Wilfred Ave b _-'YVlitretl� -Aue ZA ST III. STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT _f =E ty.Y 1 € MEGAPLEX CINEMA - m CONVENIENCE /NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER Gs � -�� POUR CENTIER'` ;� �E NTELt r> -� Rofir�ett Park Expy - 1 _ 31 n fc -'C 1 S d ti fs` :fa I i :z Lry urtls br d- T $A�: ,CENTE- BISIr Rd ...... I Rbbler I'I �� r r! V r 3 $ . 1 H too Microsoft Corp: fill nQ43 reserved f 4 �,X 3 ® finer: - park- Ent rise Dr en V © S t '}1 _ yyrr REGIONAL /SUPERREGIONAL MALL cal � I POWER. CENTER ZA ST III. STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT _f =E ty.Y 1 € MEGAPLEX CINEMA - m CONVENIENCE /NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER r �E NTELt -� Rofir�ett Park Expy - 1 x ti fs` :fa I i :z Lry urtls br d- T $A�: ,CENTE- - Alice -Dr - Roberts of V r 3 . 1 H Eoarau��arxs: !u7 • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 18 4.1.2 SANTA ROSA Santa Rosa, which is approximately 15 minutes drive from Petaluma, is the dominant 'retail center to the north and has an estimated retail inventory (includes all retail types such as auto/RV dealerships, financial institutions, gas service stations, etc.) of'7.7 million sq. ft. Referring !to Figure 4.3, Santa Rosa's retail' infrastructure is comprised of two super regional malls (Coddingto.wn Mall. - 964;000 sq. ,ft. and Santa Rosa Plaza — 700,g00 sq. ft) and box retail strip centers (Santa Rosa Marketplace, Santa Rose Southside, Santa Rosa Town Center). The - major centers in South Sonoma: and North Marin_ Counties are highlighted in Table 42. Santa Rosa 's critical mass of retail functions, particularly for value retail, provides strong destination appeal for this community. Furthermore, . national branded retailers are well represented in the marketplace, including Target, Burlington. Coat Factory, Costco Wholesale, Cost Plus World Market, The Good Guys, Marshall's, etc. The strip /power center developments, are also concentrated along the Santa Rosa Avenue corridor, with excellent access to/from Highway 101, further strengthening_ this precinct's destination appeal. Based on the level of merchandise selection and strong presence of national/branded retailers, .Santa Rosa is a formidable retail competitor in the regional market, likely attracting strong patronage from Rohnert Park and Petaluma. 4.1.3 NOVATO /SAN RAFAEL The City of Novato, approximately 15 -20 minutes drive: south of Petaluma, has a similar retail infrastructure to Santa Rosa and could be an alternative to shopping facilities north of Petaluma (see Figure 4.4). In addition to a variety of typical supermarket anchored convenience strip centers, Novato possesses one regional center (Vintage Oaks at Novato). Vintage Oaks at Novato is an open -air format regional center anchored by value- oriented' tenants (i.e. C'ostco,. Marshall's, Target and Ross Dress For Less). This development reflects some of the new design .elements, emphasizing visually appealing building facades and storefronts for power center formats. The overall merchandise reflects middle price _ points emphasizing the value- oriented retailers such. as Payless Shoe Source, Shoe Pavilion, Athlete's Foot Outlet, Old Navy, .etc. The Toys and Electronics categories are weakly represented in the tenant mix. The. 'Mall at Northgate in the City of San Rafael is just south of Novato and is approximately 742,000 sq. ft. This enclosed regional center, anchored by Sears, Macy's, Mervyn's, and Century Theaters, is very dated in appearance. The mall at Northgate features middle price point merchandise. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 79 FIGURE 4.3 SANTA ROSA MAJOR RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE l _: tZCJ � i y �; r. O "5 (� s e � �• , _� ' _- � t r " F 1 �'� , D �. `` - _ - c KE Y �•WOb�� �� � ��_ � ' ,Q . s � {. s ? �''� �oUree�ngra�+e �P I['E I , - � T . OW # Resort,antt �. MAP AW REGIONAL' SU PER 'REGIONAL MALL. t i P $a�AeS Rd# CODDINGTOWN MAL 7 ' t n o POWER, CENTER A lto :Gn i uvik?� 1 r ' s =a. { ° t '# t 'I K ' #{ r{ d :4 STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT mer - - I� G LE CINEMA FP ME AP X' �' I 15�t s Y t a.a (12, f y r t - nt vow a —( �. h11Bo Ile Rd erne •m .. ...... ...... e #&^-'� t ' 'E,51 a�tf Ry ..z # - {� ( 5�'ti , Re '� �e.: 'Y`u •2'''' _ rt =l of + t SV — � pal" " e P" e _ n 9 cl:+' +,;�4' „. , # 1. S FX i Stink t i V a a - ' �v� � � 1 RU 5a far . Y' r 3 . ( ( s g s "� �, y;r '* + p ; a '$ . '�" . • r 'g €.:. tau! 7 _ f --1 k �;.. - .'3 }'�'J " "**,, l �. -;t. -.:. � � # I � .,� kK..� i y.; � '� _ ✓ �' ;.4 � :. LVI AY SQUAB L !Q - ,.. •, tr �i`�4 � k p . �.l i,Z � >- ,: �) p}(r L`'��- ."fi�,r 1 {J�.: ^' • r {�t�1�PN4Cri —�?�°- ..i+.t +e i [ .:::. �''t ..T j ti 't �•f i 7:j f •,?H f � Y . f� fly _ 1� r�5.: .;j ' _ 4; 1; n 'd Rice as;C arne fo i s t s a•,� - . - :: �.. ,�: ,t - 1. -f •i':'l: < 1 . -:r �. r... l {1 t,'._:1 t ..i . ' ' . i r i't £i °n� �''� r•° " A.'S'�`' ,.. -r" „ 'a .., '7" .1. d.F� : •x. �;�! � T - • .1T ..:� s 1 ;- .: . :: �,. , {� t RosAZOwN-c N e � - SANTA ROS`AtMA�KE7° - {l ;r— 0 a � 0.2001 :h'ScrosoHiCo : flll n Ms reserved .'A VE_ r , tvuu!!anls , • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 0 Page 20 • 0 TABLE 4.2 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 21 SOUTHERN RETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE FIGURE 4.4 NOVATO/S.AN RAFAEL MAJOR R I ETAIL INFRASTRUCTURE Me morial U ' MAP KEY s" REGION AL/SU PER R EGIONAL MALL 7 0 POWER CENTER [' 4 ,irk 711 STREETFRONT RETAIL PRECINCT OVATO FAIR Y'. y'-` -7 1 MEG APLEX CINEMA 9 � Al. A o W'a W V3 9 Z '4 �1 fk 7. � CONVENIENCE/NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER f 1 v w, p T D'QWNTOWN;,NOVATO E'N Y w" k 57 31F /% 1,77,1 N AV E CEN -4�� W A, V, ViNtA il� ft(>V�, ul� J ' 4" S W K , T _4 R If A "NORTHGATE '7 - 'MALL it'd O. 'All n h1s: reserved , Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 22 • Although this regional mall is likely a comparison shopping destination for local Novato /San Rafael residents, it does not possess a strong representation of `.Lifestyle' retailers such as Talb'ots, Banana Republic; Guess, J. 'Crew, Pottery Barn, etc., that are typically present in `trophy' malls. As such, Petaluma residents have the option of going north (Santa 'Rosa) or south (Novato/San 'Rafael). 4.1.4 COR`DE MADERA Corde Madera, approximately 35 -40 minutes drive south of Petaluma, is likely outside of the Petaluma':s trade region; In addition to 'the traditiona_I community convenience -strip: centers, Corte Madera 's two key centers (Town Center Corde Madera and Village at Corde /Madera) feature the strongest representation of 'Lifestyle" retailers and upper price point retail merchandise in the: region. The lack of these tenants in the major retail centers to the north could suggest that Corde Madera is a potential destination 'foe brand name or merchandise specific shopping. The Village at Corde Madera (42$,000 sq. -ft.), an open =air format anchor "ed by Nordstrom and Macy's, reflects an 'Lifestyle'/upscale tenant roster, including, Banana 'Republic, Ann Taylor, Bebe, Talbots, Coach, Lucky Brand Aveda, Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Restoration Hardware, etc. More importantly, Corde Ma;dera's upscale, lifestyle merchandise offering is interceptory for those shoppers residing in north Sonoma County and enroute to San Francisco for similar merchandise. 4.2 SONOMA /MARIN COUNTY VOID ANALYSIS A void analysis was also performed for a _selected number of key centers in 'Sonoma and Marin Counties. The purpose 'is to compare the overall retail offering between Petaluma a'nd `its neighboring communities, to further assess that retail categories- either go unfulfilled or are already present in the .market- Given that some of- Petal'uma's neighboring communities are larger in population they possess a more developed retail environment. Referring to Table 4.3, the following are the salient finding ➢ Rohnert Park, the closest- community north of Petaluma, is the most comparable in retail infrastructure. However., Rohnert Park has a stronger representation of box /value retailers (e.g. Target, Outdoor Pro 'Shop, JoAnn Fabrics & Crafts, Burlington Coat Factory, Office Depot, etc.). The value offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail'. formats, effectively appealing to a, broad market segment In addition to the regional malls, power centers and box retail - oriented strip, centers dominate the retail landscape: The variety of retail formats accommodates ja multitude of national chain retailers, and ,reflects a `strong' ranking in all categories of the void analysis. The critical mass of branded /national retailers combined value price's, generates . the strong 'destination appeal for Santa Rosa.. ➢ Novato /San Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the exception of the Electronics /Home Entertainment category. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 23 TABLE 4.3 CURRENT RETAIL OPP - tRING7 VOID ANALYSIS - TRADE AREA COMMUNITIES Mod6r,ate, to Moderate Moderat to Strong to Strong Limited Representation = 'STRONG , OPPORTUNITY. Modeidte M ODERWTE OPPORTUNITY Strong Representation' OPPORTUNITY Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 oPage 24 Maderaie — Strong §H " :ModeratL e, ei M. ; n44! t r 4 Moderate Moderat to Strong to Strong Limited Representation = 'STRONG , OPPORTUNITY. Modeidte M ODERWTE OPPORTUNITY Strong Representation' OPPORTUNITY Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 oPage 24 • ➢ Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of 'Lifestyle'- oriented retailers in a more pedestrian- oriented shopping environment. Specifically,,, Corde Madera's `Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle; -to- upper price points (i.e. Village at Corde Madera). This retail offering and overall center profile is more comparable to the upscale shopping centers in, San Francisco. As such, typical patrons of this center are likely to be more affluent: 4.3 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITIES National and "lifestyle' retailers 'are sought after tenants for lifestyle centers, regional malls, and other retail formats that focus on comparison and /or value xetail..merchandise., These . tenants create credibility for' the retail' center, and' stimulate, destination appeal for shoppers. More. established shopping centers in Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Novato/San Rafael, attract shoppers from a regional scale, affecting -Petaluma's `retail ability' to keep their residents 'from shopping locally. - Given the availability of key retail 'sites and the lack of national /regional retailer presence 'in the Petaluma marketplace, there may be opportunities: to attract these tenants. This would contribute to energizing Petaluma's., overall destination appeal for shopping and leisure ' elated visit-s.. By introducing a critical mass of well - recognized retailers and other leisure - oriented venues :to Petaluma,,the City's appeal for shopping and 'leisure activities would be complemented, and further strengthen 'this community's overall profile as a multi- purpose destination for both.locals and visitors. Referring to Table 4.4, the Retailer /Tenant Opportunity Matrix highlights the existing branded /national tenants represented in the Petaluma marketplace.. More importantly, the matrix identifies the retailers who are not represented. The strongest opportunities are designated as "Site Opportunity A," where the target tenant `is not represented within, the primary trade area or regional market: The criteria for ranking these potential retailers tenants is illustrated in the follgwing figure. The r Retailer/Tenant Opportunity Ma' trix,,;is a critical tool `for the project'"s • leasin_g and marketing team, as it identifies the likely target tenants and can help shape the role and function of the subject center. Findings from this analysi's suggest opporfuttiti'es for the following retail formats, retail category, and tenant types: Large format general merchandise stores (Kohl's). ➢ Value apparel /footwear or discount `department store (TJ Maxx,. Old' Navy, DSW Footwear, etc.)' ➢ ,Large format house. & home , retailer '(Container Store, Lowes, Linens. `N Things,, etc:) .;Large format electronics /home entertainment- (Fry's Electronics, Circuit City, etc.) ➢ Lifestyle /branded retailers (J.Crew, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, American Eagle. Outfitters, etc.). Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 25 of e ade Areas • Meet the tenont . -specifications for site selection criteria; • Fit within the project defl.nit as either a box format: or lifestyleretalfer. Potentially meet the tenant'.. specifications for site selection criteria; Fit within -theproject definition as -either a box format or lifestyle retailer Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Ow age 26 I RETAILER/TERA OPPORTUNITY CRITERIA RANKING TAB1 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY. MATRIX O erairMe�Chdndlse r �x s _ .> �` �•fi`�" _ . ��� .: ? �:�,. �' � � ... .? �-�"� �a..rr ��� � -" ate:; KokN Costco Target Cost Plus World,Market Sam's Club DSW Footwear Shoe Carnival Famous Footwear Shoe Pavilion. Nordstrom Rack Off Broadway Old Navy TJ Maxx Linens 'N Things Bed Bath $, Beyond Lowes Home Improvement Ethan Allan The Container Store Home Depot IKEA Lazy Boy Furniture Ga Barnes & Noble Booksellers Fry's Electronics Borders Books & Music Office Max Circuit City Good Guys Comp USA Office Depot BJ's Wholesale Sears Burlington Coat Factory David's Bridal Marshall's Men's Wearhouse JC Penney :Home Levitz 'Room to Go Best Buy Petaluma Leakage $ Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 27 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 Page 28 RETAILERITENANT OPPORTUNITY _MATRIX TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 29 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX Pe'talurna Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 30 TABLE 4.1.4 CONTD. RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 31 TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 32 RETAILER. /,TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX �I TABLE 4.4 CONT'D. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 33 RETAILER /TENANT OPPORTUNITY MATRIX 5. NORTH AMERICAN RETAIL TRENDS ToJil'ustrate the mix of uses,, range of retail functions and tenant types for the evolving North American retail projects, an analogue of various case study examples was prepared. The key of the analysis was to determine the most critical elements that make such projects work and be vibrant. 5,1 PROJECT ANALOGUE EXAMPLES In order to' illustrate the Latest in retail trends, an extensive Analogue of Project Examples was prepared, as appears in detail in the Appendices. The Analogue documents the size and tenant composition of the following retail formats and new generation retailer types that are currently driving North American retailing: ❑ Nuked -Use Centers ❑ Life - style & New Generation Retail Centers ❑ Main Street Retail ,& Downtowns ❑ Hybrid Centers (Value, Lifestyle & Convenience) ❑ Polarized Retail Centers ❑ Strategic Repositioning of Existing Centers Entertainment Themed Retail Centers. ;nfranu l 5.2 KEY COMM'O;N ;ELEMENTS Key common elements of these project examples are summarized in Figure 5.1 on the following page and as follows: ❑ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. ❑ Exploiting and celebrating the local, organic lifestyle. ❑ Establishing the community social gathering palace. ❑ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. ❑ Culture, arts and education play a prominent role. 13 Specialty food and public markets are an attraction. ❑' Spaces - are organized into a "Streetscape" setting. ❑ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. 0 New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. ❑ Investment in architectural & landscape. features is :intense. Petaluma Leakage•& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 34 F;IGUR 1 TRENDS & DISTINCTIVE. QUALITIES OF SUCCESSFUL RETAIL PROJECTS ENERGY& ATMOSPHERE• - PEDESTRIAN-FRIENDL°Y STREETSCAPES CREATING SENSE OF PLACE. ARTISANSHIP A. STOREFRONT NOSTALGIA ANIMATION. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page :35 :AMENITIES A,'LEISURE NOT JUST ANOTHER MALL "HUMANSCALE" PUBLIC:SPACES ARCHITECTURAL CONTINUIT,Y' ENTERTAINMENT MIXED -USES - FIGURE NORTH. AMERICA TRENDS RETAIL FORMAT PROFILES ! �11a3 1 STRATEGIC RE- POSITIONING • Petalurna Leakage & Sustainable Retail'Strategy Study, June 2004 . Page 36 ENTERTAINMENT RETAIL HYBRID C ENTERS MAIN STREETS LIFESTYLE CENTERS POLARIZED RETAIL 564 LIFESTYLE CENTERS 1 60, 000 to 400 - sq. ft 0 of retail, fOod/beverage, an;d_ ➢ Suburban & mixed contexts. Strong presence of National Retailers''. Wide, .selection of d' B Ming, 'F & 0 Emphasis on specialty apparel & retail. .);� & "hurnon" scale® C U inline tenants less than 5,000 sq. ft. Anchored by "New Generation Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 38 0 G 5.5 MAIN STREET PRECINCTS 100 to 400,000 sq. ft. of retail, food/beverage and entertainment. Urban/downtown context. Shared pedestrian & vehicle, access ,)�> Short term on. parkeing. )�;- Anch*r tenants on, corners. Strong representation of local & also some national tenanis,, Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 39 ;'C`S41 'IN Located in suburb contexts® T: y picaffy in the range. of 900,000+ sq. ft. Anchored- by depadmeO stores and/or large 'format retailers I aile,rs and /or multiplex cinemas. Strong nati tenant representation to provide the credibility.! ➢ Yalue- orientation of box retailers and overall. middle price point attract a. broad market segment. tntegrates element of 'New Urba,nis-m' to appeoF to the human senses. Petaluma Leakage a Suitainable ROail-St Study, June 200 age 40 • 5.7 POLARIZED RETAIL CENTERS Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 41 5.8 STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING 0 * 0' . * tgniflcaO extemeor and *tnterior renovation to at c.re, e, a now appe.aran.m. and perception.. Marketir n!gr efforts promote a new Image,' creating curiosity and allure. ➢ Moti ati'� v on or rationale for repos I ng was to revitalize a. specific area and/or enhanclw the, center's compefif ive:ness in the marketplace. Petaluma Le6ldgP A SU t a,o ` able Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 42 e ' s 0 0 5.9 ENTERTAINMENT THEMED • Heavily oriented on human senses: sight, sound, san°el'I and touch. Archi ectu;rai design includes vivid colors, ezternaliZed storef`r.onts, & eye - catching facades. Oriented towards tourists & locals. Unique retail streetscape and ind`ivid:ual store designs provide the shopping experience. Centers typicall are visitor- oriented a,nd considered as major tourist destination. The restaurant offering also follows a therned form at to maintain the excitement within the center. ➢ Ty icca "lly pedestrian-friendly" environment, with programmed street activity. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 43 6. 'CONSUMER SURVEY RESEARCH In order to objectively assess items such as 'the degree of retail safes outflow consumer expenditure profile and consumer preferences, 'it ' is of vital importance to ascertain the ,general image and perception of Petaluma's Central Business District (CB'D). Also, it is critical to gather, quantitati.ve.ly current shopping patterns of residents of Petaluma, their needs and wants, so that these issues can be addressed in Petaluma's'Retail Strategy. Accordingly, a: detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during the period of July to August, 2.003. Keyfaz Market Research in lidison with. Thomas Consultants Inc., ,and the City' of Petaluma prepared a questionnaire survey tool. The questionnaire was then utilized for the . customer research as detailed below. 6.1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The respondent qualifications and sampling for this study were as follows: RESPONDENT QUALIFICATIONS ➢Respondent was ,principle shopper in the household. ➢Respondent was 18 years of age or older. . ➢Resp.ondent resided in designated geographic area. SAMPLING ➢ 400 telephone interviews were completed in total. Random selection 'of either male' female: shopper. ➢ Captured cross- section, of Petaluma residents.. ➢ Representative sampling of _Petaluma's ethnic populatort. ➢ Quotas set b:y. population size . for each of the nine geographic areas. ➢ Minimum quotas set by population size for ethnic origin of respondents. Randomly generated sampling utilizing the Petaluma directory. FIGURE 6:1 CITY'RESPONDENT RESIDES IN i Cotat ; Rohnert,Park Novato - 1% 9% Southwest" °/ 5 w Novato - South 3� 4 %, �a Petaluma - Sonoma s West 6 % 350 Petaluma - East i 40% Petaluma'Leakage•& Sustainable Retail'StrategyStudy, June 2 Page 44 0 0 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 45 1 0GURE 6.2 CONSUMER SURVEY RESPONDENT'S ASIDENTIAL ADDRESS 6.2 CONSUMER RESEARCH FINDINGS In general, the telephone survey probed issues corresponding to Petaluma's major retail nodes. The survey questionnaire tool' and resulting straight frequency tables are contained in the Appendixes. Specifically, it probed: 1: Respondent Characteristics. 2. Retail Patronage Patterns 3. Current Shopping Rehavior 4. Petaluma Central District Patronage 5'. Relative Importance of Shopping Area Features The' resulting major findings are summarized as follows: 6.3 RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHIC. C_H'ARACTER "ISTICS Note: For ,applicable demographic - questions `0' code for don't .know /refusecl was treated as a missing variable and not calculated into the mean: ➢ Average household site for the total sample 'is 2.7 with less than 34% of household "s having children less than 19 years of age (,as shown in Figure 6.4). The majority of households (38 %) have 2 persons .suggesting large empty nest and notable newly -wed couples in the population. Most notable segments are mature families with 1: =2 children of young adult or adolescent age. ➢ Age profile' indicates a large "Empty.Nest" Baby_ Boomer population of 45 to 64` years old. Also a notable,proportion of'Middle -Age adults of 35 to 44, some with families haling mature (adolescent children) as shown in Figure 65. ➢ A strong proportion of people over 65 (2.1 While 12 %0 of all respondents refused to reveal their income bracket, most households (40 %0)` indicated that they earned $75,000+ per annum,'24% earn $45,000- $75;000, and an additional 14 % earn $25,000 - 44,999. Also, 99/o earn less then $25,000, as shown in Figure 6.6. ➢ The above profile suggests an affluent- mature population base that has significant buying power and discretionary time, as they are approaching the "Golden Years" of ,their working life. Kir9IJR p' A - 4 Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 0 Page 46 • FIGURE 6.5 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 47 The random sampling of Petaluma's ethnic population was captured for the purposes of this study, as, illustrated by Figure - 6J. The dominant ethnic group is Caucasian representing q2% of Petaluma's population base. The next strongest groups are Hispanic/Latino (1 I %) and Asian Pacific Islander (3 %): FIGURE 6:7 RESPONDENT "ETHNIC ORIGIN Of the total random sample, 69 % of the primary shoppers within households were females and 31 were males as indicated in Figure 6.8 . FIGURE 6.8 RESPONDENT GENDER Male Fem 69% J = Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 48 White Asian Hispanic Biacl( Other Race IPacific� Latino African Islander American 6.4 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER PREFERENCES Comparison Shopping Centers refers to the place where one shops for items other than convenience needs; in other words whe.r "e one would shop for clothing, footwear, books,. sporting.,goods, jewelry, Housewares, and gifts etc. Only 43 .of' .respondents identified shopping centers in Petaluma as their regular ",Primary Shopping Destination." The combined 'Petaluma Plaza North and W.a "shington Square are where 21 % do most of their comparison 'shopping as illustrated in Figure ,6..10. The next most notable location is the Petaluma Village ,Premium -Outlets identified by '13 %. 14 % .identified centem in R Park, 20% id entified centers in Santa Rosa, and 12% identified centers in Novato or to the South. REASONS TO SHOP AT PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER Store selection and price are by far the driving reasons for choosing shopping destinations. Discount Department Stores, Ap,p.arel, Footwear and. Department Stores 'also influence why respondents go to their primary shopping destination. Store quality and dl'versity of specialty retail also play a role in selecting shopping venues as illustrated in Figure 6.9. E TOP 10 REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY-COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTER i Parking % r �,' `2 Accessibility Specialty Retail , : 6°! ` r.. .. ,T_.. ' ; Quality Stores Department stores Clothing Footwear Discount Departm`enbor °Store Close to Horne PricesSales Selection Stores Multiple Responses FIGURE 6.10 PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS I Coddington Mall Other Shopping I SR No Primary Centers �\ Petaluma: 7% 8% 3% \ l Village Premium Outlets Santa Rosa _ �� I 13% Plaza -\ _/ 7%.� Downtown I �Santa'Rosa \ P; etaluma� M arket pi a ee 1% Santa Rosa\ Y' Town Center x, _ 5% Kh� \� P'laza Nbrth P +T; Village at Corte i,i� 12% Town Center A 5' Corte Madera, .ka $ Washington 0.3% k �` �/ - Square PT g/ N o rth gate;M'a lt - '� '�, Expressway SR 4% / II \ l Plaza RP 1 Vintage Oaks N — Downtown Wal•M art Plaza j 2/ Rohnert Park Novato _ 5% RP 2% g% Average $ Expenditure Per Month $171.33 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 49 j �• -sue: 6.5' PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING .CENTER Convenience Shopping Center refers to the place where one shops for day- to -da;y needs such as groceries, pharmacy, liquor and services. Unlike comparison shopping, the majority of .respondents shop locally in Pefalu.ma for their day -to -day convenience needs as shown `in Figure 6.11.. 'Whole foods was identified as the strongest convenience `shopping destination as identified by 25% of respondents. The nezt strongest convenience' centers were Downtown Petalumarand Washin.gton'Square. FIGURE 6.11 TOP' 5 PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING ZENTERS No Primary G$G' / 5 %. .. 6% Plaza North PT U 6% r t Whole Foods $A a 26% Gateway PT 7 % Other ' Shopping Centers J 24 %- Ave "r*& $ Expenditure Per Month $375.18 FI 6.12 TOP 10 REASONS SHOP AT PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTER Familiarity Accessibility CUs tome r Service Drugstore Items' Discount Dept or Store Selection Stores Prices Sales Quality Stores Groceries Close: to Home 'Multiple Response REASONS TO SHOP AT PRIMARY CONVENIENCE SHOPPING CENTERS Proximity to residence and grocery offering were the dominant reasons for 'choosin'g to shop at a Convenience Center as illustrated in Figure 6.12'. Store quality, prices and selection were also strong reasons. Service, accessibility and presence of pharmacy and discount department store, offering were also notable ,reasons. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 20 0 Page 50 17� 6.6 CONSUMER PERCEPTIONS OF PETALUMA'S RETAIL RESPONDENT MAIN DISLIKES: Respondents would like to have a better selection of comparison - shopping retail, specifically at a major or discount department store enabling 'them to complete a one -stop shopping trip. Also, they would like a movie theatre as illustrated in Figure 6.13. They think changes and improvements need to be made to the parking and roads in Petaluma. FIGURE 6.13 PETALUMA SHOPPING 'Nothing Special Selection of Discount Dept or Stores Selection of Department Stores Prices Traffic Roads Parking No Movie Theatre Selection of Stores Multiple Response RESPONDENT MAIN- LIKES: Respondents like the locally owned and operated unique shops and antique shops that a_ re available_ to them in Petaluma, as shown in Figure 6,14. They like the atmosphere that ,Petaluma affords them and =that_ it is pedestrian friendly. In addition, responden.ts,'like the customer service they receive in the stores, the; parking, and the: discount- outlet'stores as well as the convenience shopping that is ali located close to their home.. FIGURE 6.1 PETALUMA S 'Nothing Specific Pedestrian Friendly Parking Locally Owned Operated', Convenience Shopping Discount.Stores Dept. Outlet'. .Custom a rSe rvice Atmosphere Antique Shops. Close to Home Unique Shops Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 51 FACILITIES MAIN DISLIKES )PPING FACILITIES MAIN LIKES 6.7 CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO PETALUMA'S RETAIL 6.7.1 STORES THAT' WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA Figure 6.1.5 indicates that by far the top stores or services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: Movie Theatre, Discount Dept. Store /Dept. Store, Home Electronics & Computers Store. Next most desired stores to add are: Apparel/Footwear, Books & Music, Home Improvement & Garden, Specialty Retail, Entertainment/Leisure, Casual Dining and Specialty Food Grocery. FIGURE 6;1,.5 TOP STORES OR SERVICES THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA *Nothing Specific Grocery'Specialty'Food Footwear Casual Dining Ente rtainm a nt:Leisure More Variety Selection Books Music -DVD Home Improvement & Garden Women`s Fashions Specialty`Stores Home Electronics Computers' Discount Department or Stores Department Store MovieTheater • 6.7.2; TOP DESIRED RETAIL STORE ADDITIONS- Figure 6.16 Illustrates that the top seven desired, retail additions to Petaluma would be: ➢Apparel/Footwear ➢Books =& Music ➢Electronics & Computers, ➢Home Furnishings/Housewares ➢Sports, Toys & Hobbies ➢Specialty Retail ➢Grocery & Drugstore F IGURE 6. IMPORTANCE, RATINGS FOR STORES, ADDED TO PETALUMA Grocery Store Drugstore Specialty Retail Sporting7Goods Toys Hobbies Furnishing 's Appliances. Sectronics Computers' Books' Music DVDs Clothing &'Footwear Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 52 O 0 6.7.3 TOP DESIRED SERVICE ADDITIONS: Professional services received the highest rating of 4.7, but no service received a rating of 5.0 or higher, thus indicating the service element is not perceived -to be significant nor a preferred addition to 'Petaluma (as! indicated in Figure 6.17). rin-1IDr A 7"7 FIGURE 618 IMPORTANCE RATINGS FOR ENTERTAINMENT ADDED TO PETALUMA Other Entertainment Movie Theatre. National Full'Service.Restaurant Loca1FullService`Restaurant National Coffee Cafe Faso Food, Local Coffee Cafe Fast Food 6.7.4 TOP DESIRED LEISURE ADDITIONS: Figure 6.18 Indicates that the following entertainment and leisure additions to Petaluma are most desired: ➢Movie Theater ➢Local & National Full Service Restaurants ➢Cafes ➢Entertainment 6.7.5 IMPROVEMENTS TO INCREASE VISITS: Respondents definitely want changes and :improvements made to the ,roads and parking in 'Petaluma, as shown in Figure 6.1,9;; A wider selection' of stores is also 'top =of= mind': To a slighter degree they would like an improved atmosphere as well as; the addition of a department store, movie theatre, and discount department store. FI GURE 6.19 TOP CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS THAT WOULD INCREASE VISITS TO PETALUMA "No?Freference's Better Prices Sales Add Discount Dept or'Stores Movie Theatre' Add Department' Stoke Improve Atmosphere More Variety Selection Improve Parking Improve Traffic Roads Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 53 6.8 CONSUMER PREFERENCES: DESIRED RETAIL LOCATION, FORMATS AND PRICE POINTS Figures 6.20 and 6.21 -illustrate consumer preferences for preferred retail lo'c6tipris and formats. Highlights. ' a f the- analysis incl,ude:, ➢ Almost an even balance of preference to add new stores Downtown and close to Highway 10.1. Man said both. "Streeffront ' Retail" , and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred shopping formats. ➢ Enclosed Mall was also mentioned as a preferred format. Figure 6.22 suggests, the following findings regarding preferred retail price - points: The respondent prof - ile suggest that a balanced variety of yal0e, * M,d;- rang ecl ,a and upsca lespecialty stores ;is desired. Mid-Rcing!b.stores scored the highest. This finding, suRgests'thpf Petalu retail offering.:should be enhanced to missing is I e , g . ments. FIGURE 6.20 LOCATION PREFERENCEiOF NEW STORES IN PETALUMA ,Both Donl,-K-now Downtown 29% — 8% Petaluma PRIMA* -As"n— % clos Fqghw; 1• 30% FIGURE 6.21 STORE FORMAT PREFERENCE�OF NEW STORES SERVICES IN PETALUMA -SpLci ' alty Stomfront Center or Don't Know ketail ;�tor�e'Froni 30% 12% Power Center V n 4 "/0 Unenclose I I Specialty Enclosed Mail C 28% FIGURE 6.22, - Petalurna & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 54 • 6.9 RETAIL SALES RETENTION & LEAKAGE The final and most significant .question of the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that occurs either inside or outside of Petaluma. The resulting analysis is presented 'in Figure 6.23, which highlights the percentage of spending made outside of Petaluma; in other words the sales leakage. The most significant leakage is Occurring for the following categories ranging from 50% to 100% leakage: °Entertainment -Electronics/Computers *Home Furnishings & Accessories *Apparel . and Footwear -Books, Music & Media -Sports, Toys & Habbies *National 'Restaurants The only Comparison Retail categories that are being retained within Petaluma include Specialty Retail and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma appears to be retaining between 60% to 75% of Convenience and Service Retail functions such as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified by respondents confirm the .scope of retail voids and opportunities for Petaluma. M 100% 90 % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% � IQs teh Ge s `es � �� �a\ e �5 e ( n s Ge s \Ge GQa oa o0 ' a �� af t o oh Q \ a� a� �� e e� a� `A LQ aJ C ay e o � os�G CP PQQ 5� c�a �� ° te G e�� a\ 6 a\ g � Qa 5 Qa s e5 � ey e � `et 0� oo`� r\5 d °� `� O� G � ° e � so � 5 40 ��� G G ate �G �G G° e k�� Gl° 0 0 \eG �t t ��y Go o Q �o�e \G o N\ A Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 55 7, TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ASSESS'M'ENT 7.:1 TRADE AREA DELINEATION A retail, trade area was delineated for the City of Petaluma to understand the market potential available to the project as; well as its demographic and spending nuances. figure 7..1 illustrates the P.r,imary (_PTA) and Secondary (STA) trade 'areas for'the City's retail offering. A trade area is 'the geographic region from which the project would draw regular retail patronage from. local residents. Typically, approximately 80% of trade area .business originates from the PTA. An additional .20 of the trade area business is typically sourced from the more remote STA. The trade area was delineated using a two -stage approach. A Retail Gravity Model (Huff version) was used to develop an initial estimate of the source of the City's future business. The Gravity Model is a computer algorithm which, examines the distribution of the market po'pul'ation, as well as the ' location, size and quality of competitors in order to calculate the city's collective retail offering's anticipated trade area. - This initial quantitative approach is modified and - enhanced by information gathered in the field, including:. ➢ Petaluma's context in relation to the market including its non- retail generative land uses; Road and transportation networks, particularly as they relate to drive -time (see Figure 7.2); Commuting and employment distribution patterns; Significant natural and man -made barriers De .facto barriers resulting from notable socio__- economic differentiation; and ➢ Patterns of residential & commercial development. These sources are currently estimated to be a minor source of sales at the project `in relation to the Trade Area I 's residential base, and are calculated as an additional percentage over base sales. Over time,, with the growing 'awareness of the expanded retail and leisure opportunities available in Petaluma, these miscellaneous sources of patronage are expected to provide important additional revenues to the project. • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 56 ® y In addition to people living within the 'Trade Area, supplementary retail patronage could be derived from miscellaneous sources, such as the local employee base, Northern California residents living outside the trade area, as well as travelers passing through the area., 0 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS An analysis was made of the project Trade Area's demographic profile to determine the' optimal merchandising program to appeal to the marketplace. Tables 7.1 and 7.2 contain the salient findings from this analysis. An initial investigation of the proj'ect's market was based upon a drive -time analysis. It was determined that over 65,000 people reside within a 10- minute drive from Downtown Petaluma. This is .somewhat lower than a typical' suburban location, which .wil,l. generally have between 150,000 - 200,000 people within that radius. However, Petaluma is centrally located along the San. Francisco -Santa Rosa axis, which contains . a significant, if dispersed, population base. Nearly 387,000 people live within a half -hour drive of Petaluma. Residents of the outer edge of,'a metropolitan area tend to have higher car ownership rates and are less sensitive to drive time in order to fulfill their shopping and leisure needs. As outlined in Section 7.1, a Trade Area is the result of other factors besides drive time. A more sophisticated trade area delineation and analysis took into account competing retail destinations and demographic composition, and many other factors. This analysis revealed that the project's retail trade area is comprised of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000 people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people. The total trade area is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual rate. of 0.97 %, nearly identical to the national average. As shown in Figure 7.3, the PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.5'39/6 per annum. The Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 1 1,0,00 new residents anticipated over the next decade. Also positive, the slowest growing residential districts are located in the low population density STA West, and the more developed (from a retail perspective) STA South. Neither of these geographic areas is expected to provide as much potential patronage at Petaluma retailers as the more rapidly developing STA North and East. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 57 TABLE 7.1 TRADE AREA DEM'OG'RAPHICS BY SUB -AREA '� STS .:ESt �l id0TH �A EA STAS4UTM! Pit t }T -Z Index Index 'Index' Index Index Index - t , Benchmark Indez POPULATION 2003 Estimate 28;544 as 201 3 Estimate, 4 731 0 75;859 Q 35,225 0 54 343 0289 999 OS 0 Avg. :Annual Pop. Growth 2003 -2013 31,2 44 0.83% 0 81 48;075 1.95% 0 190 4 854 0.14% 0 13 84,374 0.98% 0 - 95 38,973 0.93% 0 91.. 54,816 - 0:04 ° / 0 323 SOl 667 10 3 � � � X 02% , x �? ` INCOME -_.a ..sr� Average Household Income 20 03 Total Household Income 2003'($' Million) $76 ;425 $856.46 1 29 $79,447 .134 $6 5,140 .110 $63,730 107 $68,442 115 $96;282 r� 162 152 }� 1 0 $1,099.37 0 $109.26 0 $1,809.06 6 $987.85 0 $2,047.14 - 0 66 Household Income Distribution Less than '$35,000 0 27.80./0 69 24.4% 61 21.4% 53 73 0 a bb NO $35,000 to $50,000 16.90% 106 15.5% 97 1 2.9% 80 .29.5% 17.1 107 30.8% 16:4% 77 102 12.0% 10.3% 30 / $50,000 to, $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 24.70% 1 3.70%0 125 126 28.4% 16:4% 143 151 23:2% 14.7% 117 135 26.4,% 1 133 128 23 5% 13. 0 119 120 21.4% 17:9% 64 108 :797 ° / 10 164 $100,000+ 16.80% 125 15.3% 11A 27:7% 708/ TO 206 13.1% 97 1 b:2% 1.20 38 :5% 4 0 LIFESTYLE- _ Average Household:Size 2.55 95 2.86 10 . 282 106 267 100 2.44 91 2.56 R k 96 3 1 ob P 9 Y 23.8/ ° 117 ° 16.70 82 26.1% 729 26.Oo 128 ' o ofIHouseholdsthatFarellReoterseholds /o Adults 37:2% - 1'23 23:3 ,/ 7 o 34. 0% 112 /0 37.1 /0 122 24:4% 3:1:6% 120 104 21.5% 28:4 % 20 2 / Ox.. 106 o 0 93 � * � o x ' 70 30 &3/ of with University Education Y ° 39.1 /0 1 20 o 37.1 /0 114 41.4% 127 39.0% 120 39:6% 122 50:7% a �a 156 }i0 � AGE PROFILE % Aged :O to 9 Years TO to 17 Years 12.3 1 1.0% 67 94 14.8% 12.7% 105 108 12.8% 11.1% 91 95 12:5% 88 1 1.7% 83 12.1% n '3 1z� %Aged 86 %Aged 18 to 24 Years % Aged 25 to 34 Years 7.1% 12.1% 75 88 6.8% 11.8% 72 1 1.4% 120 12,2% 11.8% 104 125 10.4 6.8 9 /6 89 72 1 0.8 "� 5.9% 92 1 7 7 °/ 10 62 ` Z lu s 45 °/ 10 %Aged 35 to 44 Years 17.8% 109 86 12.0% 88 12.9% 94 10:5% 77 1 1.3% 83 h 13 6 % !W d %Aged 45: to 54 Years. 18.7.% 115 15.3% 94 17.0% 105 14.9% 91 17.4% 10 % Aged 55 to 64 Years 18.4% 9.3% 131 107 15.8% 8.4% 1 13 17.7 " /0 126 16.4% 117 16 7% 1 19 18.1,% 1 29 %Aged 65'Yedis 96 9.4% 108 7 6% 88 10 8% 125 1 1.2% 129 :: " alb ° / 0" }0 and UP 12:0% 97 }0:9P /o 88 1.0.4% 83 9:5% 76 18.1% 145 13.1% 105 pource: US Census, Applied Geographic Solutions, Bureau of - Labor Statistics (1) Index refers to the USA benchmark, with 100 representing the national average. Petaluma Leakage &'Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 58 r TABLE 7.2 TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY DEMOGtPHIC o Z 1111111 V SUMMARY STA �AII US Irideie "Index Benchmark Index POPULATION _ 2003 Estimate -.- 68,158 0 170'165 0 289;939,057 100 2013 Estimate - ]9,308_ 0 182,9 0 - 323,501,667 100 Avg. Annua l T op. - Growth 2003 -2013 -- -- - 1.49% 145. 0.62/ 60 - 1.02% 100 INCOME AJe age Household Income 2003 $78 1pq 132 ;$75;324 1.27 :$59,152 100 Total Household Income 2003,($ Million) $1,956.27 0 $4,953.69 0 $6,463;328_.70 100 Ho_usehold' Income,:Dist.ribution - Less than $35,000 - 25.90% 64 . 23.90% 59 40.00°/ 100 $35,000 to'$50,000 16.20% 101 14.60% 91 16.00% 100 $50,000 to•575,000 36:70 13s 24.0 1.21. 19170% 160 $75,000;to!S) 00,000 15.20% 139. 15.00% 1. -38 i 0.80% 100 ST00,000 + 16.00% 1.19 22:40% 166 13.40% 100 LIFESTYLE Average Household Size' 2:7, 2 102 2.59 97 2.65 100 People Living in,Non- family Households 19.70% 97 24.20% 1.20 20.20% 100 of Households that are Renters 29.60 - % 97 33.00% 108 30.30% 100 %of,Adults with University Education 38.00% 1,1.7 43.20% - 133 32.40 °0' 1.00 AGE PROFILE %,Aged O'to 9 Years 13.80% 98 1230% 87 14.00% 1 %.Aged 10 to. 17 Years 1.2.00% 102 11.40% 97 11.70% 100 ° /a',Aged 18a6. 24 Years 6.90 73 8.90% 93 9.50 °0 .100 %:Aged'25 to 34 Years. 11.90% 87 11.90% 87 13:60% 1..00 6 X, .Ag"ed,35.to 44 Years 18130 %: 1'13 16.60% 102 16.20 100 %•:Aged 45 to 54 Years 16.90% 121 17.10% 122 13.90°/ 100 %,Aged 55!:to 64 Years; - 8;80: /0' 101 9.50% 109 8.60% 100 %:Aged 65Yeorsand Up 11 .40% 91 12.50.% 100 12.40% 100 An ,analysis of income, occupation and education statistics reveals -that the trade area is an affluent white - collar market. Income levels are high (from 110% to. 162 % over the- United States average) ,as is the level of educational attainment (1 :14 %, to 156% the a:vergge). As Figure 7.4 indicates, most househol,d;s in the project's vicinity will earn; about $75,000 in 2003. There are relatively few of the highest or lowest income segments, with most households in the above- average income category. This homogenous level of income is supportive of retail development, as It is possible to create a destination with near universal appeal across the trade area in terms of price -point and value- orientation. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 59 At Figure 7.5 depicts,: the project -site is located amidst a' n area of relatively small' households. Average: household size is generally below :average throughout the `trade area, with the exception of -STA West and PTA East. This household ' profile reflects the greater presence of Baby Boomers in the local market, particularly 45 to 54 year -olds. This important consumer market has strong, representation in the Petaluma area, at 120% of the national average, and is also the fastest growing age :cohort in the Trade Area. The ,appropriate, retail and leisure offering that would.tater, to this age household profile should reflect lifestyle elements and have a strong ;representation of offering catering to wellness travel, self improvement and should emphasize-home accessories, fine dining and recreational-activity'... Finally,: ..,home ownership: levels are slightly - above average throughout the Trade Area. Home owners tend to spend relatively higher proportions of their income on home furnishings, home improvement and household durables such as appliances and electronics. It 'is anticipated that with the continued influx of Baby Boomers to the Trade 'Area, there will be a continued increase in home ownership levels with a commensurate increase in spending on these important retail categories. In summary, the Petaluma Trade Area demographics indicate` a matu;ne and sophisticated market that would be responsive to the introduction of additional authentic, lifestyle- oriented retail. and leisure offering. The market is dominated, by educated, Migher' income B - a by, '. Boomers who are entering a phase in the ' lifecycle where wellness,, experience and lifestyle, play an 'increasing :role in their shopping and leisure choices,. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 60 0 Y 8. TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROFILE 8.1 . P. PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS The first step in projecting retail expenditure potential for Petaluma is to determine retail expenditure on the various categories for the City's Trade Area residents. Table 7.1. summarizes the- per capita annual expenditure across the PTA and and summarizes the detailed tables which appear in the Appendices. Most notably" residents of the STA have. a much higher per capita expenditure on retail and leisure, at; over $10,556 in 2003 This is well above the national average of $7,500. The PTA is also well above average at .$9,659. Although household income level's are slightly higher in. the PTA, the smaller households and' older age profile in the STA .allow for higher levels of disposable income per person. Although per capita spending differs, the proportion of income spent on retail and leisure is similar between the Trade Area components. PTA residents spend; on average over 33% of their total income on shopping, dining 'and entertainment. STA residents spend a slightly larger percentage at over 36 6 /o. Approximately 41 % of expenditure in the PTA and STA is on "Comparison Goods" and 44% is on "Convenience Goods and Services. "' Approximately 15% of trade area expenditure is made on leisure activity, including dining and entertainment 1see Figure 7.'1). This profile is not reflected in the local retail hierarchy, which is highly skewed towards Convenience retail. TABLE 8.1 PER , CAPITA RETAIL /LEISURE EXPENDITURE, 2003, Expenditure Prof►le Convenience $4;221 14.88% $4,701 16;38% Alcohol •& Tobacco $65:1 2.27% $706_ . 2.43 PersonalCare - $243 ' 0:85 %a $265 0.91% PersonakServices' $466 1.62% $506' 1.74% Pharmacy, $759. 2:64% $828 2.84% Grocery /Specialty Food $2,151 7:49., °l0 $2;396 8.23 %d Comparison $3,992 13! 91 % '$4,344; 1492% Apparel $917 3.19 % $9 3,4.2 %0 Footwear $223 0.78% $247 0.83 %d Home Electronics & Computers $447 1.56% $486 1.67% Home Furnishings &.Accessories $532. 1.85% $579 1 Home Improvement &, Gardening $325 1.13% $353 1x.21 % Housewares Small.Appliances $278 0.97% $304 1.04% Jewelery &.Accessories $217 0.76 % $23 0.811 % Major. Appliances $149: 0.52% _ $163 0r56 Multimedia Books &.Music $233, 0.81,% $254 0.87% specialty Retail $328, 1..1;4 %0 $357 1.23% Sporting Goods $128 0.45% $139, 0.48 Toys?& Hobbies $215 0.75 % /0 $235 0.81% Leisure $1,395 4.86 %q $1,511 5.1,9% Entertainment $140 0.49% $152 0.52% Restaurant & Cafes $1,255 4.37% $1,359 .4.67% TOTAL;EXPENDITtJRE. µ, , .,- =$9;659,,� 3365%x, `', , . '$. ;0,556, .a „36:49,% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Applied Geographic Solutions, Thomas Consultants Inc. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 6'`1 8,2 AGGREGATE RETAIL EXPENDITURE The: following tables anal yze detailed spending patterns of trade area residents, and identify the total expenditure potential available for expenditure at Petaluma's collective retail and leisure offering;, calculation takes into account population and income growth over g:: p p g time. Expenditure potential is. measured for the benchmark years. of 2003, 2005 2007, 2010 and 2011° Detailed tables were 'prepared for all trade areas and are; contained.'in,the Appendices: TABLE 8.2' TOTAL; EXPENDITURE $2,352,612,752 Convenience $1,0j8,868,428 Alcohol l& Tobacco $158,61 9,840 Personal,Care - $59,425,1:04 PersoncXSei;46es $1 13;616 Phaimacy $185,242,823 Grocery /Specialty Food $521;964;137 Comparison $973,799,165 Apparel $ 223,546,657 Footwear $54;307;518 HomeElectronics•& Computers $108;961,488 Home' Furnishings & Accessories $129,800,287 Home improvement &,Gardening $79,231,008 Housewares <& Small Appliances $67,940;067 Jewelery & Accessories $52,966,921 Major. Appliances $36 ;365;705' Multimedia iBooks & Music $56,930 ;956 Specialty Retail $80,076,437 Sporting Goods $31,185,438 Toys & Hobbies $52;486,682 Leisure $339,945;158 Entertainment $34,1 16 ;383 Restaurant & Cafes $305,828,776 - O _ $2,432;293,509 $2,514;673 $2,593,606;748 $2,675,174,04 1.29% $1,073;894,226 $1,1'1,0 ;101,264 $1;1:50,842,650 $1,193 17.9,460 1.39 0 $163 $169,42.1,501, $173,937,111 • $478,573,076 1.19% $61;470;971 $63,587;272 $65;342,769 467,146;730 1.23% $117,449,9.41. ;$121 ;412;698 $1}24,674,748 $128,024;442 1.20 $191,687;1 $198,355'562 $203,839;629 $209,475;318 1.280/ $539;354,486 $557,32.4;231 $5,83;048;393 $609,959,894 1.570/ $1,007,153,440 $1,041,650,303' $1;070,251,549 0 $1,099,638;258 1;22 / $231,168,495 $239,050,200; $245,597`329 $252,323,772 1,220/ $56,169,296 $58;094,900 $59,71'0;234 $61.,370,483 1.230/ $112,662;680 V 16;489,593 $119,665;952 $122;928,921 1.21 $134;294,828 $138,945,000 $142;790,081 $1x!6,741,569 1.230/ $81,912;726 $84,685,212 $86,969,136 $89;314;656 1.21% " $70,297,677 $72 1737,098 $74,750,862 $76,820,379 1.24°/ $54,805,335 $56,707,558 $5 &304,242 $59,945;882 1.250/ $37;628,192 $38,934,508 $40,018,931 $41,133;558 1.24% $58;834;9,64 $60,802;650 $62;430,362 $64,101 119% $82 ;799;814 $85,615;612 $87,931,727 $90,310,288 1,.21% $32,256,961 $33j3 65,300 $34 ;283,241 $35,226;449 1.23 ° / $54;322,47.2' $56,222 ;472 $57,799,4'46 $59,420;653 1.25% $351,245;844 $362;922,200 4$37.2;512,549 $382,356,329 1:22 $35,264;328 66,A50, 900 $37,424 ;635 $38,424,382 1;22% $315,981,51, "5 $326,471 $335,087,914 $343,931,9A7 1,230/ Source:8ureau of Labor' =Sfatistics, Applied Geographic Solutions, Thomas Consultants Inc. Petafwiib Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 62 • Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is 'estimated' to be over $2.35 Billion and is expected to increase to $2.68 Billion by 2013. The PTA represents $•659 million (28 %) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (72 %). Total expenditure is expected to grow at over 1 .29% per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is forecast to. be Convenience, particularly Supermarket spending, which will. grow at 1.5.70 per annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenditure will grow from nearly $974 million to $1.1 Billion during this time period, while expenditure on Leisure is slated to grow from $340 million to $ °382 million from 2003 to 2013. In summary, the City of Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development. Per capita expenditure on retail and leisure is well above average in the PTA and STA, at 129% and 140% the national average. Within the PTA, the relatively fast growing population base is anticipated to be bolstered by an 'influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. This should expand per capita expenditure accordingly. The STA. is not slated to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per capita expenditure, and thus represents a key market segment to entice to the development. FIGURE 8.1 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY EXPENDITURE CATEGORY Entertainment 1 Restaurant & Alcohol & Toys & Hobbies Cafes _ Tobacco 2% \ Sporting Goods �% J 7% Perso nal Care , D /O \ PerVVai Specialty Retail: Services 5% 3 %�. A j MajorAppliances Pharmacy 2 %° 8% �. Jewejery& Accessories - %/ < Grocery/Specialty 2 °/d i Food Housewares,& 22% Small Appliances—' I �` = Apparel 3% % 10% Footwear Home 2% Improvement and Gardening 3% Home Electronics Home & - Computers Furnishings 8 5% Accessories 6 % EIAlcohol &Tobacco ®PersonalCare ❑ Personal Services ❑'Pharmacy ® Grocery/ Specialty Food O.Apparel ® Footwear ❑ Home Electronics & Computers ® Home Furnishings &Accessories M Home Improvement & Gardening i ❑ Housewares & Small Appliances ❑ Jewelery& Accessories • M ajo r Appliances M M ultimedia Books & M usic • Specialty Retail ■ Sport ing Goods ❑ Toys & Hobbies ❑ Entertainment ❑ Restaurant & Cafes Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 63 8.3 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES OF BUSINESS In addition to the trade area population base,. - other important potential sources of business include the local employee base and visitors to the region: In the ease of employees, the inflow factor would . only include commuter traffic of employees working in Petaluma but living outside of the Primary and Secondary Trade Areas. - Accordingly, this segment is not typically regarded in the retail industry as core expenditure. Table 8.'3 Outlines the `number of workers in three key communities within the Trade Area. Most notably, slightly more than 30,000 people work in Petaluma on a full -time basis. This group of workers represents a significant market during weekday business hours, particularly for food, and beverage.. The market potential available. to Petaluma °operators was estimated by , mulfi'ply'ing the number of local employees: by ty,pical..weekdayexpenditure: for- American workers (as recorded:.by the Urban Land Institute). TABL'E,.8.3 SONOMA 'COUNTY 'EMPL'OYM'ENT' STATISTICS ESTIMATED - :UNEMPLOYMEN .. Hansel Dealer.Group Advanced PETALUMA 30;480 3:3% Fibre Communications, Cisco Systems, Legacy Marketing Group ROSA Agitient Technologies - dtronic AVE, St. Joseph Health System] 4.0% JCS Uniphose, Sutter. Medical Cir of'Santa Rosa, Kaiser Permanenti W a sF ington, Mutua I,. Ken d a I I J ackson t wine Estates -1 26,100 Boy. Bvri.- J -12003 Beck dLisb: 3.3% 1Fireinans,Fund Insurance Employees based outside of the City were not included in this .analysis, as most workers are unwilling to travel more than 2 -3 miles during their lunch breaks. The majority of :this expenditures is based on lunch spending. These figures` do not include expenditure made either on the way to work or home, and occurs most during the lunch hour. Referring to Figure 8.2, the total expenditure was estimated to be $48.1 million in 2003. Of this 'the. majority (78 %) will be made on Food & Beverage. Less frequent spending will be made on Apparel ($.0.65 a day per worker) and Other Non -food Items ($0.93 a day per worker`.). It is anticipated that at least half of Petaluma' employees live in the city, and in order to `avoid double- counting potential expenditure, the total market potential to be 50% or -$ million of additional expenditure. J 0 Petaluma Leakage& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 64 r r� Retail precincts located near to employment clusters can expect to receive the largest percentage of worker spending,.as this market group is very time conscious and convenience driven. Given the heavy food and beverage emphasis of this expenditure profile, employees will have a significant impact that is generally restricted to. the Restaurant category. However, this group can also be an important target market for after work I r, activity, 'parficularly for restaurants, bars_, health clubs, supermarkets and pharmacies. Another - major source of potential 'expenditure is 'the visitor market. Tourists spent nearly $667 .million in Sonoma County in 2001. These figures are offset by spending overall in the Wine Country and elsewhere in :Sonoma County. Despite the recent slowdown in the: wider tourist sector:, it is anticipated that the County will continue to be a major attractor for 'daytrippers and visitors from further afield, given its natural beauty and abundance of vineyards and other recreational activity. It is anticipated that outside of the specialty shops'iri Downtown Petaluma, a relatively minor percentage of expenditure within Sonoma County is occurring within the City: In addition to capturing a greater share of the local 'tourist market, an enhanced retail and leisure offering -in Petaluma would increase the entire County's' destination appeal, particularly for daytrippers from the Bay Area and Northern California. //✓ /RlI(T JS rte '-- - TABLE 8A SONOMA COUNTY PER CAPITA TOURIST SPENDING Eating & Drinking $3087 32.4% Food Stores ....$4.61' 4.7 %0 Recreation $27.80 2.9.2 ° /d RetailSales (Shopping) $3'1:.96 33.6% Tatal'Speriding $95.141 100:0% S ource. 'Cc i ornidairavel „8 Tourism Commission SDiLision:ofTourism.Colikrnia Trade &,ComrnerceAgency Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 65 The fourist' expenditure profile indicates a higher than average per capita daily expenditure. While the average American ._spends $65 a' day on shopping, dining and recreation, visitors- to Sonoma County spend over $95. To recognize this tourism /visitor opportunity, the Southern Gateway to Petaluma (near the Petaluma Boulevard South exit ramps with ;Highway 161) could be enhanced to become the' "Gateway to Wine Country ". Accordingly, this node could be; positioned 'to embrace the "Agritourism "' culture; offering and lifestyle of Sonoma County. by' creating 'the "firsta'nd last .chance" for visitors to experience, busy and` take a piece of Wine Country home with them. In summary,, however the -local residential markets, particularly the PTA, represent the greatest 'sources of potential business for Petaluma's collective retail offering. 'While catering to Sonoma County tourists and local workers is an essential, strategy, the primary focus.. should be. made on the local 'residential :base in and around Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 66 0 • 0 9. RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE ANALYSIS • An analysis was made of the current trading patterns in Petaluma and its neighboring communities. Data was collected from the California Board of Equalization (BOE) publications on the distribution of taxable sales within the State. By comparing sales data within Petaluma with that achieved by every other major municipality in Sonoma and Napa counties, it is possible to delineate where Petaluma is performing well, and where there may be an opportunity to expand the retail offering. It is not the intension of the is study to address "'Automotive Sales, Servicing, Recreation Vehicles or Fueling," in which case sales figures for these categories have been netted out of the total reported taxable sales calculation. Similarly, it should also be noted that most Grocery sales are non - taxable and thus not recorded in the ta_ xable_ sales data:. One 'important limitation of the Taxable Sales analysis is the limited number of retail categories co)lected by the State government. A. direct comparison between the government data and commercial consumer expenditure databases requires some adjustments and modeling assumptions. 'A second limitation of this approach is that key retail categories such as Supermarket /Grocery are dominated by a non- taxable line -up of consumer goods and;theref „ore measuring retail sales outflow 'is not - possible with this method. However, despite these limitations, a taxable sales analysis' does provide a broad indicator as to the extent and nature of a retail leakage situation. Referring to Table 10.1, Petaluma's taxable transactions reached $347 million in '2001, with the major sales categories of Other Retail Stores ($84.4 million), General Merchandise ('$64 million) and Restaurants ($67 million). TABLE 9. 1 - AGGREGATE TAXABLE SALES (1) Based upon 2001 taxable sales data. (2) Category taxable sales are not reported for Cotati due to smaller community size. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 67 North Sot�tlt .._ <`° East Petaluma Cot ati Rohnert Park Santa Rosa Novato Corte'Madera San Rafael _Sonoma - Taxable Transactions N /A $9,410,000 $107,315,000 $22,369,000 $52 $23,495,000 $7 Comparison Retail $28;201,000 Apparel Stores General Merchandise $63 y/A $94,681,000 $4 $164,769,060 $104,342;000 $1:35,710,000 $17,775,000. Homefurnishings and Appliance $17,086;000 N, /a $30,996,000 $136,170,000. .:$11,205,000 $39,932,000 $92,187,000 $6,106 Bldg Matr,l. And•farm:;implements $35,473,000 A/A $102',555,000 $196,967,000 $23,345,000 $20,543,000 $213 $16,443;000 other r,_etail stores $84,804,000 $229,537,000 N/A N/A $57,957,000 $295,599,000 $405,179;000 $1,319,879,000 $87 $309;622,000 $77,602,000 $294,89.6,000 $200,669,000 $665,386,000 $19,200,000 $66,948,000 Sub-Total Comparison Convenience Retail Food Stores $50,893,000 N/A $32,876,000 $126,852,000 $31,965 $9,712,000 $52,828,000 $24,974,000 Restaurants $66,787,000 N/A $54,265,000 $180,345,000 $56,253 $27,877,000 $87,951,000 $34,851,000 $347,217,0001 $69,248,0001 $382,740,000 $1,627,076,0001 $309,710,218 $332,485,0001 $806,165,0001 $126,773,000 (1) Based upon 2001 taxable sales data. (2) Category taxable sales are not reported for Cotati due to smaller community size. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 67 As Figure 9.1 demonstrates, Santa Rosa is the dominant retail cluster within -the Marin/Sonoma area.. Its critical. mass of downtown streetfrobt retail and regional malls attracts over 40 of all expenditure in the market place. San Rafael, at 20 %, also attracts a substantial proportion of the local retail expenditure, largely due t'o its strategic location within the Bay Area. Petaluma collects approximately 9 % of all retail sales in the area, indicating that it currently occupies a peripheral strategic position in the local retail hierarchy. However, its nearest neighbors of Rohnert Park and Novato are performing a similar localized role. FIGURE 9. 1 AUUKh UATE TAXABLE SALES, 2000. +`cr�yranan�s s u �,t An initial indicator of retail sales leakage is provided by analyzing Taxable 'Sales per' capita. Referring to Figure 9.2, Petaluma had a relatively low, :sales per capita ($6,365) in 2000 despite the relatively higher income and expenditure profile of the city described previously: 'Petaluma and Novato display a similar' net "retail :leakage profile, while more commercially developed communities such as San _.. Rafael, Santa Rosa and Rohnerf Park • demonstrate a more balanced profile. FIGURE 9. 2; TAXABLE SALES PER CAPITA,, 2000* 9 g *Does not indu8e°auto, sales, fueling or servicing. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 ' Page 68 0 . San Rafael Novato Santo Rosa Petaluma RofinertPark 0 Having assessed the overall level of taxable sales within Petaluma, a more detailed analysis was performed on individual retail and leisure categories to determine the particular opportunities for the City to stem' sales outflow. Figure 9.3 illustrates the estimated sales on a category -by - category basis sourced from the PTA. It compares the estimated sales with the expenditure potential available within the PTA to determine the aggregate sales outflow (or inflow). The salient finding are as follows: s � The source of business (PTA vs. STA) had to be estimated for this analysis. Thomas Consultants proprietary database of project analogues was used to determine the percentage of a city's retail sales are sourced from the ,PTA and the STA. This breakdown varies widely by retail category, most notably with Convenience retail' experiencing the greatest share of its business from, the local market and Comparison and Leisure receiving a broader, more regional market support. Figure 9.4 Illustrates the estimated sales on a category -by- category, basis sourced! from the. STA, as well as the expenditure potential available in this area. Retail leakage out of the STA was not estimated in this analysis. It is estimated that the City of Petaluma is capturing approximately 7.3% or $74 million of the total STA market of $1.09 billion for the retail categories under study. Achievable market shares generally range from 10 -30% depending upon the retail category, and this indicates that Petaluma is currently not providing desirable retail in a critical mass that is capable of drawing regular patronage from adjacent communities. Again, the most noteworthy retail categories that represent the strongest opportunities for Petaluma to pursue include Home Electronics, Home Furnishings, Cinema and Apparel. The low market share currently being realized in these categories indicates the greatest opportunity for expansion. In addition, the restaurant category represents the single largest expenditure category and also represents a key component of a retail enhancement strategy. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 69 FIGURE 9. 3 COMPARISON RETAIL SALES: & LEAKAGE FROM PRIMA-I.ZY TRADE AREA (PTA) $100;000000 $90,000 $80,000,,000 $70,000,000 $60;000 $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $30,000,000 $20,000 $10,000,000 $0 a \ ea N 5� CO `S 5 e 5 5 5 . PQ oo`� o�Q� PGA \\a �C�' � �e o 4r� F` a \e G�� F aG � G �5 PQQ 0 5 �`Geac a � °` a` � � ��� �a o �5 � �� �� e ey ` �.z .5 Est. Sales from PTA 0. PTA 'Expenditure Potential j m E st. L eakag6 from PT Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 200 Page 70 CITY OF 'PET'ALUMA, 2001 _ y FIGURE 9. 4 COMPARISON RETAIL SALES FROM SECONDARY TRADE AREA (STA) CITY OF PETALUMA, 2001 $250,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 El STA Expenditure Pb ® Est. Sale from STA F G a QQ Ci & Q Q �5 �� � a`Z` � lip o� `yr\ � Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 71 TOTAL s,Ta COMP. POTENTIAL = $1 .0:9 BILLION. ES TOTA C OMO. SALES FR OM STA _ -7_4 M ESTIMATED CAPTURE RATE '= 7.3 fiP;q ' s' El STA Expenditure Pb ® Est. Sale from STA F G a QQ Ci & Q Q �5 �� � a`Z` � lip o� `yr\ � Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 71 Potential latent retail floor area was calculated by corriparing the current capture rate with a target;sa es capture rate for the PTA and STA. Table 9.2 and 9.3 provide the summary of this analysis for the PTA and STA, respectively: For the PTA, the target sales capture rate of 74% is commensurate with a typical municipal capture rate from its Primary Trade Area. This target figure varies, by category, depending upon the geographic travel behavior associated' with each type of good or service.. The analysis indicates that an additional $105 million in sales could be sourced from the PTA if Petaluma were to provide a fully. realized retaif program for local residents. This translates into an additional 366,000, square feet 'in ;new retail space supportable by the PTA residential base. TABLE 9. 2 POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA .CALCULATION — PRIMARY TRADE' AREA MARKET COMPARISON4 LEdORURETAIL: ' Apparel. $62,917;1,21. 40% ;$37 ;526,532 66% 70 % $18,651396' $275: -" $44,0'44,985 ; 67,823 Footwear - $ ;270,974 _ 38% $9,447,431 62% 75.% $11,453,1,86 $5;629,703 $325' 17,322 Home Electronics and Computers $30,674,454 38,/0 $19 - 62% 70% $21,422,118 $9;950,427 $325 30,617 Home Furnishings ^and Access. $36,512,281 13% $31,943,782 87% 70% $25,558,597 $20,990,098 $250 83;960 Housewares & Small Appliances $19 16% $16,062,337 84% 70% $13,375,602 $10,329;936 $375 37,563 Home Improvement and Gardening $22;290,892: 120% - $4,51 -20% 100% $22,290,892 $0 $225 0 Jewelery &.Accessories $14,882,406 25% $19,118,096 75% 70% $10 $6,653,374 $500 13,307 Major:Appliances $10,242;868 54% $4,661,603 46% 70% $7,1.70,008 $1,588,743 $225 7,061 Multimedia Books &Music "$16,009'T92 54% $7 ;298;318 .46% 65% $10;405 ;97,5 $1,6_95,101 $275 6 164 Sp d l x$22,542,832 93% $1,626,867 '7% 1,00 % $22,542;832 30 $275 0 Sports ing g Goods $8;77.1,493 67% $2,927,826 33% 65% $5;701,470 � $0 E275 0 Toys andHoS6ies $14,774;192 25% $11; ;128,428 75% •65% $9;603;225 $5;957,461 $250 ,23;830 Restaurants &Cafes - $86,140,768 541% $39 ;389,868' 46% 75% 464 E17 ;854,676 $450 39 Theaters /Cinema /Entertaininent $9,603,320, 0 %. .$9,603,320 100% 60% $5,7,61',992 $5,761;992 $d 50 38,4,13 TOTAL $369,740,736 47% $197,375,498L 51% 74% $274,401,141 X105;062,906' $487 365,738, Note: Based upon 2001 annual taxable sales. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 72 e For the STA, the analysis indicates that an additional $129 million in sales could be sourced from the STA if Petaluma were to provide a' critical mass of appealing retail and leisure to the regional residential base. This translates into an additional 473,000 square feet in new retail space supportable by the STA residential base. TABLE. 9.1 . POTENTIAL LATENT WAIL. FLOOR AREA CALCULATION — SECCIIVDARY TRADE ARFA MARKET Note: Based upon 2001 annual taxable sales. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 73 STA.UNCAPTURED POTENTIAL PETALUMA >S ,TARGET =STA TOTAL,STA '' CURRENT "': ;. SALES EXPENDITURE °- CAPTURE OF STA CAPTURE POTENTIAL EXPENDITURES RATES, TARGET SALES FOR -PETALUMA' ';PETALUMA FROM STA POTENTIAL : ADDITIONAL NEW SALES FOR FROM STA ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES PERFORMAN CE!'PER SO. FT./YR., POTENTIAL LATENT RETAIL FLOOR AREA. COMPARISON & LEISURE RETAIL: Apparel $160 7% 26.1% $41,91.8 $31,036,768 $275 112,861 Footwear $39,031,213 6 ° /u 25.0% $9 $7262,025 $325 22,345 Home Electronics and Computers $78,276,126 6% 25.4% $19,882 $14;944,268 $325 45,982. Home Furnishings and Access. $9:3,274,706 2 29:5.% $27,516,038 . $25;558,110 $250 102,232 Housewares & Small Appliances $11 3,896,286 1 % 20.9% $ $22,499;038 $275 81,8115t Home Improvement and Gardening $56,932,076 20 % ;20:3% $11, $70,398 $225 31`3' Jewelery & Accessories $38,079;203' 4% 23.7% $9;024;771. $7,41'1;495 $500 14;823 Major Appliances $26,1 19;067 9 0 /0 18.4% $4,805,908 $2,413938 $225 10,729' Multimedia Books 8 Music $40,916,1:08 9% 10.7% $4;378,024 $644,792 $275 2,345 Specialty Retail $57,525,399 16% 15.5% $8,916,437 $0 $275 _ Sporting Goods _ $22,410,793 11% 12.3% $2,756,528 $252,099 $275 917 Toys and Hobbies $37,707,117 4% 13.7% ' $5,165,875 $3,603,405 $250 14,414 Restaurants & Cafes $219,657,207 9% 11.9% $26,139,208 $6,103,108 $450 13,562 Theaters /Cinema /Entertainment - - -- - $24,509,591 0% 30.7% $7,524,444 $7,524 ; 444 $150 50,163 TOTAL $1,008,941,977 7% 20.1% $203,147,156 $129;323,888 $274 472,500 Note: Based upon 2001 annual taxable sales. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 73 In summary, the retail leakage analysis indicates a demand for approximately 838,000 square feet of additional, floorspace warranted for Retaluma. This additional space could" generate approximately $234 million pear year in sales and $M4''million in sales flax revenues to Petaluma..Apparel, Home Ele Home Furnishings, Housewares & Small Appliances and .Cinema represent the largest categories for development: Conversely, more specialized categories such as'. Toys and Hobbies, Books, Jewelery, gas well as Home Improvement would comprise a smaller amount of .new - development. ,Restaurants and Cafes, a 'major expenditure .cate,gory, are currently 'achieving a moderate sales- retention, and as such it is expected that a relatively small, amount -of new floorspace for this' category is. warranted.: TOTAL NEW SALES: $234 MILLION /YEAR TOTAL NEW FLOORSPACE OPPORUNI:TY 838,000 SQ FT Restaurants -& Cafes 53;240 Toys and Hobbies Specialty Retail• - Sporting Goods 917 Multimedia Books & Music 8,509 Major Appliances 17, TOTAL POTENTIAL NEW RETAIL SALES -TAX REVENUE $2:34 MILLION /YR ; Jewelery &,Accessories 28,130 Home Improvement'and Gardening - Housewares &.Small. Appliances 11.9,378 FIGURE 9.5 TOTAL LATENT FLOOR-SPACE OPPORTUNITY Theaters %Cinema7Entertainment, 8.8,576 84 Footwear 39,667 ome Bectronics and Computers 76,599 is Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail' Strategy Study, June 200 Page 74 Home ;Furnishings :and Access. 186,193' 10. *TAIL POSITIONING RECOMMENDATIONS & STRATEGIES 10.1 MARKET SHARE /CAPTURE RATE METHODOLOGY A market share /capture rate methodology was utilized to project the optimal retail mix for each. of Petaluma's retail clusters (:as identified in Section; 2):. This methodology involves applying realistic market capture rates against the Primary and Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each retail category in each individual retail cluster: The "end result is, a detailed Retail Trade Area Market Share/Capture Rate matrix table, as illustrated in the Appendices. This Appendix table balances the available trade area retail market expenditure opportunity amongst the various retail clusters, such that no one cluster absorbs all of the retail demand and that different clusters are positioned differently, in order to complement one- another. In other words, if one retail cluster absorbs more than its share in retail capture, it could have an adverse affect on other clusters. The market capture rates should not be viewed as actual performance figures, but rather as a planning tool to guide the optimal complementary target capture rates, sales and. retail mix for each cluster. Accordingly_ , the purpose of the Retail Positioning 'Recommendations and St a.tegies is to provide the appropriate role and function for each retail cluster to ensure that clusters do not duplicate and cannibalize one another, but rather complement one - another. The detailed category-by- category market share capture rate analyses for each of the retail clusters are contained in the Appendices. 10.2 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY Aft Overall, based on the retail capture rate methodology, the analysis in the section of the report indicates, that with the complementary and optimal retail positioning and mix recommended for each. of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as 2.31 million sq. ft. of vibrant retail functions within Petaluma. Table 10.1 and Figure 10:1 illustrate the optimal retail mix for Petaluma. If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sq. ft. is subtracted from this total demand estimate, 'the analysis indicates there is a - n opportunity to add up to 1.1.7 million sq. ft. of new retail functions. This retail space , could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per annum in retail sales for all of the =Convenience, Comparison and Leisure. categories. Of this amount, . the sales and mix of potential retail capture for Petaluma would be as follows: • $279.6 million /yr for Convenience Retail • $391.4 million /yr on Comparison Retail $104.1 million /yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants Considering the current estimated Comparison & Leisure retail capture is approximately $246 million yr, the above figures .suggest an- almost $250 million lift in Comparison Retail and Leisure sales;, in other .words . a doubling. 10.3 POSITIONING OF PETALUMA'S :RETAIL. INDIVIDUAL RETAIL CLUSTERS Using the, methodology described above, the targeted retail demand opportunity, recommended positioning and optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters was generated. Table 10.1 and. Figures 10.2 and 10.3 show the targeted retail demand opportunity for each retail cluster,. to illustrate the differences of positioning for various retail clusters. Figure 10.4 illustrates the distribution of the recommended retail positioning types in a structure diagram. Figure 10.2 summarizes the recommended retail positioning for each retail cluster. The following subsections provide profile sheets to highlight retail planning directions and recommendations for each retail cluster. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 75 TABLE, 10.1 Petaluma Leakage. &.Sustainable.Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 76 . � s PETALUMA - REC :OMMENDO RETAIL MIX /.ALLOCATION BY RETAIL CLUSTER FIGURE. 10.1 PETALUMA - OPTIMAL AGGREGATED RETAIL MIX Restaurants and Cafes Alcohol.& Tobacco 3% Home Bectronics & Computers 6% Footw ear 3% Personal Services 7% Pharmacy 4% Grocery /Specialty Food 11 %. Apparel 14 % t. :i Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 77 FIGURE 10.2 ALLOCATION OF FLOORSPACE; OPPORTUNITY BY RETAIL CLUSTER (DISTINCTIONS OF RETAIL POSITIONING). 350,000 300;000 UA Q 250,000 a N o 200,000 O 6L 150;000 F 100 O H 50;000' P Ol� �P �O �� �,�� �J �0 OHO O� - 1p P Q O J? El Convenience j ® Comparison ® Leisure, Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 78 FIGURE 10.3 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING POSITIONING STRATEGY LAND US'E DOWNTOWN CI RETAIN,AND, ENH, FOOD.AND BEV ER. RETAIL ANDENTEI MIXED -USE COI REDEVELOP WITH STREET'- ORIENTED AT GRADE RESIDE ABOVE, TO FRAME EAST SIDE OF RIVE DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY /TO COMMERCIAI ASSEMBLE AND I REGIONAL LARGE RETAIL NODE TO MISSING RETAILEE HIGHWAY /CC COMMERCIA ENHANCE,EXISTIN PLAZA AND WASP SQUARE PROOPEF ADDITIONAL RESTAURANTS AN ADDITIONAL APPAf WITH ADJACENT COMMUNITY CC ENHANCE CONVEI SERVICES AND INC HEALTH AND WELL t /K ✓nuay c+gsuuani * ZONING • INFILL/ ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT ' MIX'OF LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET-ORIENTED" RETAILERS 'IEW DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT NATIONAL AND EGIONAL RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR`DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED'WITH A BYBRID'OF "BABY BOX" RETAURANT AND, A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT SUPERMARKET AND PHARMACY ANCHORED'WITH`BLEND OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June lUU4 Page 79 FIGURE 10.4 DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES 27 Northern RETAIL SITES 1 . Dowtowil 2. Goldeh,63gle 3. Fairgrounds A. P'Plazas 5. Washington Square 6 68L/Rainier Pefoluma Village, Factory Outlets .8.* Redwood Center 1 9. Oil/Orch ard Plaza Two! TO. G&G Site 1. 1. Petaluma G.dtewqy 1 2. Lakeville Highway 13. Yardbirds Plaza 1 4. Arroyo Center Orienfat MAP KEY. - N ,Zg Hi ghway Commercial Downtown� ommercial/Mixecl=Use 2 Y M. ti ` Rods poi PeWymces Cenfral < Gn out �Z/ in t R Was on ��O il v : S_ _ t +.Rxa.'M, t '0 m. ell k 4 , V, V <j J, - on 'ddhdifi 4 , i , 0 do 6 � 4 t �# `;���a r j�icE+GtiFe��$( s `QQ:�E� f`F� �, ��r 'c % W Q e uthern Strip Commerical ommunity C o m m ercial mercial , Tourist Commercial d 0 -Vr Z, c, t;jC "D 4 A Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retai[ Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 80 • 10.4 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL POSITIONING &'STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ organic Mix of Specialty Retail, Community Services & Conveniences, Restaurants & Entertainment. ❑ Streetfront Retail Format. J. Total of 340,0 "00 to 360',000 sq ft. Anchored Bv: Zoninq Direction Multiplex Cinema ➢ Downtown Commercial Entertainment • Restaurants Development Direction • Antiques & HOme Accessories ➢ Retain &r enhance food • Specialty Grocery Store & beverage; specialty retail & entertainment. Retail Mix • Local Specialty Retail & Gifts • Antiques & Home Accessories • Local Cafes & Restaurants • New & Used Books • Personal Care & Services Infill Opportunities • Gallery Shops • Fine Dining Restaurants • Riverf rant Dining & Outdoor Seating • Casual Eateries • Live Jazz 'Lounge Site Strengths/Weaknesses • At the cross roads of historic Petaluma. • Active mixed -use and .r,i.verfront setting. ±- Petaluma is congested with vehicle traffic. - Currently back is turned to riverfront. - Lacks exposure from Route 101. 0 TABLE 10._2 TABLE 10.3 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 81 DOWNTOWN WEST (OF RIVER): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail, Target PTA Target STA Target L'Occitane Mix % Capture Rate . Capture Rate Sales Yr. Convenience: Retail 35% 119% 0.56/o $44 mullion, Comparison Retail 36% 8:8 %0 1.0 0 /0 $34 million Restaurants 'i Leisure 29% 19.0% 3.9% $2& million Total 100% 12.4% 1.2% $:1;06' _mil Phasing/Timing Immediate over 1 to 3 year horizon. Implementation, Layout'& Streetscape Strategies 1- Basin Street projects anchored, by Multiplex Cinema should 'be complemented by a Brew Pub Restaurant, Fine Dining & Cafe Style Restaurants, as well as smaller Lifestyle'Retail tenants. 2. West Bank of River should infill with -frontage: ofr Restaurants & 'Cafes. City's RDA abilities should continue to, be utilized to facilitate infill and improvement projects. 3. Street level of Basin Street projects should have retail frontages. 4. River Boardwalk should have outdoor seating for adjacent restaurants. 5. Better exposure '& linkage between Copperfield Books and Downtown Square should be created with doors and windows. 6. Some antique shop spaces on key corners could be excellent locations for restaurants and cafes, should they become available. Direct Economic Impacts $106 million in trade area Annual. Retail Sales. ° $1.1 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City/year. • 1,038 Total Direct Employees (of which 138 are New Employees). Target sales performance of $306 psf /yr. Target Market & Inflow' Segments PTA, &'STA Residents Downtown Employees & Day Trip Tourists. Moderate, to Upscale price points. • FIGURE 10.5, PROJECTED SPACE & FLOOF RESTAURANTS ,& LEISURE CE ALLOCATION RETAIL CONVENIENCI RETAIL, C01 $44 NI M G Tang e t'Tenant Profiles • Pyram g; id Brewin H Plus Gordon. Biersch Panera $read L'Occitane • • Ku_leto's Ben &,:Jerry''s , Steve Madden Shoes • Plump Jack Restaurant Great, Harvest P❑ PY_ pus Coppola Cafe HaagenDaaz Franklin Covey GNC • Zales Petaluma Leakage & Sustaina.ble Retail Strategy Study, June' 2004 Page 82 • 10.5 REVELOPED GOLDEN EAGLE & STATION SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended, Positioning & Format ❑ Mix of Local; Regional & National "Street- Oriented" Retailers; 'Restaurants & Entertainment`. 0 Mized -Use .S.treetfrontILifesty'le Retail Format. ❑ Total. of 300,000 to 320,000 sq. fk Anchored Bv• Lifestyle Apparel • Home Furnishings 8t Accessories Restaurants Live Entertainment Multimedia 6'ooks & Music Retail. Mix • Local &, National. Specialty Retail • Personal Care. & `Services • Pharmacy & Specialty Grocery, (nearby at Longs and Whole Foods) Other Redevelopment Opportunities • Art Gallery.. Stroll • Cultural Row • Riverfront Dining & Outdoor Seating • Short'term.Street Parking • Long Term Parking Structure • Per#ormin,g Arts Center Zoning Direction Mixed -Use Commercial Development Direction ➢ Redevelop with Mixed- .Use Street Oriented Lifestyle Retail at grade with residential, boutique hotel or other uses above, to frame and balance east side of river as part of Downtown Site Strengths /Weaknesses + Active Downtown mixed -use /riverfront setting. + Consid era ble':siied contiguous Downtown parcel. - Existing Golden Eagle Center buildings need to be redeveloped & owner motivated to do so. - Currently back is turned to ri - Lacks exposure from Route 101;., TABLE 10:4 PR OJECTED SALES k1ARGET CAPTURE RATES • CATEGORY(2003)� M 11 TARGET SALES BY ORIGIN ' k TOTALTRADE 3 { x5�X. 1 Alcohol'B;Tobacco 3:8% 111624 11 898' 12,168 AREASALES u, _ ..R/. CAP1UNEp C.Ot�VEN�E NCE „� w`3 'S7tbd8S1T bum ,1,1,390 11,810 Alcohol 8 Tohacco $13.466,14m 15.0% $268.394 012% $6 974,535 4.4% P al Care - $1484,320 '819 % $749,983 1:8%. $2,234,303 3.8% P sonstrServices $2,329607 Yp3 $1413;312 1:7 %' $3;742;919 3:3% Pharmacy $4 629,396 8.9 % $2;673,965 2.0% $7:303.361 3.9% Grocery/Specialty. Food $7356;853 5:0% $860,246 0:2% $8217,099 11.6% Apparel. $3775;027 6.0% $8,880,801 5'1.5% $12655829 FooMiear' $898,417 5.9% $2;158;191 5.5% $3,056,607 16.0% Howie Electronics &`Computers - $1840;467 '6.0% $940,726 1.2% $2;781;196 - 2.6% Home Furnishings & Accessories $3,973;503 10.9% $5,458,698 5.9% $9;432:202 .73% Home � Improvement &Gardening 1 $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 00% Housewares& Small Appliances $2.235;380 .5.0% $3.032;843 2.7% $5268,223 ' Jewelery & Accessories, $744;120 5.0% $2;140,229 5 :6% $2 884',350 3:3% Major Appliances r $0 0:0 % $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books &'Music $4,002';298 25.0% $1' ,450,673 3:5% $5,452:970 9.6% Specialty Retain - $2,254 10.0% $1;702,635 10 %' $3:956;918 4'9% Sporting Goods $701,719 8:0% $134,295 _ 0:6% . $836;014 2:7. % Toys .B:Hobbies g7387A0 5:0% $857,852 2.3% $1:596,562 :3.0% Entertainment _ $7,440,498 15.0% $1,723;722 7'.0% $3:164:220 9.3% Restaurant $6,029,854 7.0% $13,352,666 6.1% $19,382;520 6:3% 3,180 3,175 Toys 8 Hobbies 1.9% 5,806 5,909 TABLE 10.5 RECOMMENDED .RETAIL.MIX & .FLOOR AREA (IN SOUARE FEETI a. r te',. T rt Alcohol'B;Tobacco 3:8% 111624 11 898' 12,168 12,141 - 12;102 Personal. Care 3:7.% 11.172 ,1,1,390 11,810 i1;660 11,585' Personal S -ices' - :6_t% ,18,715 '19,090, 19,462: .19,430 19;382' Pharmacy 4.6% 13;911 14,187 14 466 14;456, - 14,442 Grocery /Specialty Food 5:,1 %" 15,652 16;01.7 16,466' ,16,633 16;888% Apparel 16.0% .48;676 49;378` 50,059 49,977 49,857 Footwear. '3;3% 10;189 10,328'. .10,465' - 10,452' 10,435 Home: Electronics ' &Computers 2.8% 8;558 '8;707' 8,850 8,826 8;791 Home. Furnishings B Accessories 11.3% 34,299 34.85P 35,411 35,368 35,306 Home Improvement B. Gardening 0.0% - - _. _ - Housewares &- Small 'Appliances 6.3% 19.157 19,470 19,774 19.738 19.685 Jewelery B Accessories 1,9% 5,769 5,853 5,935. 5.928 5,916 Major Appliances 0.0% - - - _. _ Mult Books 8 Music 6.0% 16,177 16.540 18.897 18,858 18,801 Specialty Retail 5,2% - 15,828 16,110 16.387 16,355 16,309 Sporting Goods 1,0% 3;040 3,112 3.184 3,180 3,175 Toys 8 Hobbies 1.9% 5,806 5,909 6,012 6,004 5,994 umglij • • Entedin ament 6':9% 21,095 21,456 21,808 21,769 21,710 Restaurant 8 Cafes 14.1% 43,072 43,684 44,261 44;157 44,003 SOTAI F,LOORSPACE..._ "_ %Y_Ss; 100':0,% ..'30737 1 ;'309981 X315,214, X314,873'3'" 314',379.' Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 83 REDEVELOPED. GOW EAGLE & STATION SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) FIGURE 10.7 2003 TARGETS: Retail ' Target PTA Target STA `Target. Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales yr: Convenience Retail 23 % 7.7% 1.0 % $28.mi'llion Con paris;on. Retail 56 % 0 7. 1% 3.5% $48 million, Restaurants ' . Leisure 21 % 7 8% 6 2% $23 million Total 100%0 7.4 % 2.7 $99 mil Phasing/Timing Immediate over 2 to 5 year horizon: Implementation /Layout '& Streetscape Strategies 1. An internal street system with a "pedestrian= friendly" streeti which offers short term angle or parallel parking should be the spine. 2: A parking structure could be; built using RDA and TIFF 'funds, to anchor the East side -of the river and balance Downtown. 3. City could ,reserve a' site for .the .creation, of a' Performing .,Arts venue. 4. East Bank should develop with frontage of Restaurants &C_afes. 5. Enhance bridge linkagg("s) between the East and West Banks._ 6. City's. RDA abilities should continue to be utilized to facilitate redevelopment of Golden Eagle site and to consolidate other properties. Direct Economic Impacts • $99 million in trade area Annua] Retail Sales. $1 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City year. 9.12 Total Direct- Employees (of which $87 are New. Employees). Target; sales performance of $325 psf/yr. Taraet Market &. Inflow Segments PTA & STA Residents, Downtown Employees.& Day Trip Tourists. Moderate to Upscale price points. Taiget'Tenant Profiles II Fornaio; Williams Sonoma. Talbots Redwood Room' • Rodizio. Grill Z Gallerie Laura Ashley Martini House PF Chan ''s 9 Sur la.Jab'le Christopher Banks• Barnes 8 Noble PROJECTED S PACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION FIGURE 10 8 1 f Porkmg c rorMiddle f SITE OVER 1 , IEW f �P �. �"✓ �`'�- -..1 � fit'` � ,� a te �A .�» Inshfvtsonul 'Shtit�9� z Y'�a £ � a -� Fntertoinmei+t_. ," �tx "- Parformmg.M1 . �*� ee�tet su.xn 1 > a a° � i r ~ dr_CiiYMa)M K_� r $ _ I'M �. ✓ ." I Pe�c+rtg l.rll M J 4 Pe aluma,Leakage 0 Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 84 0 10.6 *ENILWORTH & FAIRGROUNDS SITE: E. RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning &, Format ❑ Regional 'Destination Power Center: L3 Large .Format &` Baby Box Retail: ❑ Total of 400,000 to .420;'000 s q. ft. Anchoied, By: • Home Electronics/Computers • Home.Furnishi_ngs &- 'Accessories • Pad Restaurants Retail Mix • House & Home • Value &. Mid - Priced Apparel • Appliances • Toys, Hobbies & Crafts • Sporting Goods Zoning Direction Highway Commercial Developh ent.Direction Assemble and develop as ,a Regional Large .Format Retail Node to introduce missing retailers of regional proportion. Key Retail Development Opportunity This site is at Petaluma's most important interchange of Washington Street with Highway 101, In conjunction, with Washington Street, this interchange forms the gateway and approach armature for Downtown. Accordingly, to complement Downtown and stimulate regional attraction and cross- shopping within Petaluma, this is seen to be the best location for a "Regional Large Format Retail Destination" within Petaluma. Site •Strengths /Weaknesses • Large linearexposure &- frontage to Hwy 101. • Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street & to . region via Hwy 10'1 interchange. - + At geographic center of Petaluma. + Gateway to Downtown Petaluma. Washington Street is already established as City's retail corridor. Potential traffic capacity issues along Washington Street. - Interchange of Washington Street & Hwy 101 may become congested. TABLE 10.6 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY (2003j 4 �y 4 FO TARGET SALES BY bRIGIN % of - , r"T0TA0i&ME r` k... , ,... ..: a r,,; P.TA ', , "- 4 " W GPruREK'," - i. war STA, 1 a 0 :sT� uPrunr_ = . AREA SALES . siA G•vivaE' Alcohol &.Tobacco. '2:0.7° 6',047 078 - - 6;304 8;286' 8;259 Personal Care. '1.2% 4,742 4;827 4;910 41902' 4;891 Al n I &Tobacco $2.2 - 35 380 50% $2 592713 2:3% $4;828,094 x`3.0 % Personal Care $51,238 3.0% $447,226 ' 1.0% $948;464 - 1 - .6% Personal Services $960.061 3:0% a $854 543 1.0 % $1,814;603 1.6% Pharmacy $1.563;799 3.0% $1,6681685. 6% $3.231;884 1.7% Grocery1Specialty; Food $2;942,741 20% $3836 1.0% $6,778;933 1.3% Jewelery & Accessories 1 5 5,807 5;912 5,905 5,895 Major Appliances 6.3% 25.366 25,819 26 26,230 26,174 Multimedia Books & Music 21% 8.487 8,618 8.745 8,728 8,703 Specialty. Retail' 4.2% 17,009 17 17,444 17;411 17;364 Soortm6 Goods Apparel $4,404,198 7.0% $8,143,812 5:1% '$12;548; 2.5% Footwear $1,527,091 10.0% 51,697,&25 5.1% $3;524',616 6.5 Home Electronics 8' Computers $14432;408 47:1% $16,209131 20.7% ,$30;641,539 - 28.1:/ Home Fumishngs. &`Accessories $7,302,456. 20 .0% $10,506;061 11.3% $17=808;517 .137. Ho elmprovement &.Gardening $1,114;545 50% $713205 1.3% $1827;840 , 2':3% H usewares'BSmall'Appliances $11;176.901 25 $12963,567 11.4% $24;140;468 15.2% Jevrelery ''&`AC essones $1,488 10.0% $1362:778 3.6% •$2.851.019 152% Major Appliances - $2765574. 27.0% .$2;941869 11.3% $5;707;444 15.7.% MultimediaBooks &Music $1280159 8.0% !$1,266,036 3 -1. $2546;194' 4.5% Specialty Retail $1376039 61% '$2,876;270 5.0% $4.252;309 5:3% Sporting Goods $2.3 27.2% .$1,821,962 8.1% $4,208;755 13'.5% Toys & Hobbies' $4;627;827 31.3% $2.928,332 -7.8% $7556;159 14:4% E terta nrrienl. $960:332' "10.0% $524819 2.1,% $1485;151 4A% Restaurant& Cafes $6;891,261 8.0 %' $4,808.077 2.2% $11;699,338 3.8% O,TALSALES ___. e 7 .. - :SS9,936,444 s _•� I'c 10.29: , .;fT8./529" 1 "M1 5% 4148;399,338 ,. �h61% TABLE 10.7 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY^ F_. % of 2003�b 2005 2008 2010 2013 r k... , ,... ..: iW1x Alcohol &.Tobacco. '2:0.7° 6',047 078 - - 6;304 8;286' 8;259 Personal Care. '1.2% 4,742 4;827 4;910 41902' 4;891 Personal Services '2.2% 9 9,229 %380 9,361 9;333 Pharmacy 1.5% 6;156 6,268 6;379 .6;3701 6356 Grocery/Specialty - Food' 32 _. 12;972 13:109 13,381 13,.519 13.730 1 11 1 1 Apparel 12.0% 48;262 48[974` 49,663 49.574 ,49;442 Footwear. 2:9% 11,749 11,939: 12'126 12,108 - .08f Home Electronics 23.4% 94;282 95,823 97,328 •'97,157 '96;905 Home F,urnishings:& Accessories 16:1% 64,758 65,838 66,899 .66,797 '66;647 Home Improvement &Gardening 2.0% 8;124 8,278 8,429 8;412 8,387 Housewares& Small Appliances 0.0% - 54 55 '55 55 55 Jewelery & Accessories 1 5 5,807 5;912 5,905 5,895 Major Appliances 6.3% 25.366 25,819 26 26,230 26,174 Multimedia Books & Music 21% 8.487 8,618 8.745 8,728 8,703 Specialty. Retail' 4.2% 17,009 17 17,444 17;411 17;364 Soortm6 Goods 3.8% 15,305 15,590 15,877 15;864 15,846 Toys _&Hobbies 6.8% 27 -,477 28,030 28;591 28,569 28,539 Entertainment' 2.5% 9,961 10,089 10,271, 10,249 10.217 Restaurant .& Cafes 64% 25,999 26,456 26.900 26,841 26.755 TOTAL =F.LOORSP,A 3;404 , <410,159,. 4 18,862. "'418`339 :415;57,8" Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 85 KENILWORTH & FAIRGROUNDS SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS': Retail Target.PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr.. Convenience Retail 10 % 2.8% i_3 $18 million Comparison Retail '81 % 1 8.0% 8.3% $118 million' Restaurants &, Leisure 9 8 -2 %ti 2.2 V3 million Total 100 % 1'0:2% 4,5 %0 $148 mil. Phasing /;Timing Immediate over 2 to 3 year horizon. Implementation Layout A Streetscape "Strategies 1. Goal. Is to create; a "Regional Shopping Destination" that will draw from the Secondary Trade Area and beyond. 2. Anchor with either an Electronics/Computers/Horne Entertainment Equipment Megastore or a •H,ome Furnishings 3. City could consolidate lands and then offer by tender to joint venture retail developers on a', long ,term lease, or to sell or long term ,lease major anchor parcel to an anchor tenant attractive rafes/val`ues, to attract other higher paying retail tenanfs/dev6lopers to project. A. Megastore anchor retailers should be placed deep 'into .south end of site, with exposure from Hwy 101, to induce circulation through project. 5. Restaurants should - ber along Washington St. frontage. 6. Baby Boxes and smaller in -line retail tenants should have exposure from Hwy. 1.01, and placed between the megabox tenants and Washington St. 7. Although built as a larger format retail center, a contrived street through the parking area, -with landscape and water features should be created to provide a.sense of place "' and, ensure safe pedestrian movement throughout. Diect Economic Impacts $1.4.8 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales or more. $1.5 million in Sales Tax Revenue to,Cify/year or more. 1,088 Total New Direct Employees. Target sales performance of $.5 7 psf/:yr. Target I1Market;.& Inflow Segments PTA, STA & Regional .Residents & Tourists. Value to Moderate price -points: FIGURE 10.9 PROJECTED SPAC CONVENIENCE RETAIL 10 %' Q"1 0 AA PACE ALLOCATION _ RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 81'% $11,8 71M u ✓ \` °� �� CPU, �2 r CRU, 0 .� Z, Anchor r ♦ :FAIRGROUNDS Target °Tenant Profiles Sketchers Macaroni Grill' • Fry's Electronics Linens N7 Things Old Navy McDonalds IKEA Bed,,Bath & Beyond .Dress Barn Houston:'s Steakhouse Pier 1 10 Toys 'R Us Golf Golaxy Staples • The North Face Patagonia Best Buy Circuit City Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable; Retail Sfrdtegy Study, June 2004 _ ,Page 86 . e. COMPARISON RETAIL RETAIL 4 10.7. ETALUMA VILLAGE FACTORY OUTLETS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Regional Destination factory Outlet Center. ❑ Total of 160,0:00 to 200,000 sq. ff. Anchored 'By: Zoning Direction • App-arel ➢ Highway Commercial Retail Mix • Value Apparel & Footwear • Off Price Accessories • Off Price House $ Home • Discount- Athletic.Apparel and Footwear Deve lopment Direction ➢ Retain existing - center as is but externalize store front exposure to perimeters of site. Challenged I Retail Development Opportunity_ This site's most significant challenge is its remote location, which is not connected to or complementary to any other cluster of Petaluma. Although the Outlet Shops have region -wide appeal, they are not easy to find. As well, with the introduction of Value and Lifestyle Retail Centers, and mainline retailers such as the Gap introducing "off- price" brands such as Old Navy, factory outlet shops have been challenged across North America. Site Strengths /,Weaknesses • Large linear exposure & frontage to Hwy 101. • Established cluster of comparison retail and national brand tenants. • Region -wide appeal and draw. • Readily available vacant land. - No direct access to Highway 101 and not near an existing interchange with Hwy 101. - Poor exposure to Petaluma Blvd. North. - Sub - optimal layout & configuration. • TABLE 10.8 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY�(2003j �� --� MIX � CATEGORY �'"� 2005 '� 2008 2010, 2013 k'STACAPTURE3 AREA SALES TrAcMTulmI ONVENIENCE. >� 0'0% ;.350% a w_�a, 3° 0 ,0. ammltp Alconol,B Tobacco $0 OA% - $0 0.0% u s0 0.0% Personal.Care s0 ,0 $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Personal Services s0 0.0% s0 0.0% s0 0.0% Pharmacy $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food • s s0 0.0% $0 '0.0% s0 0:0% Apparel -- $9437568 ,,. 150% EZE= 510;309;901 SIR= - '6.4% 1111221M � " -� $19:747;469 - -" 8.8% Footwear $2,290,637 15..0% $2;505,670. 64% $4,796;307 0.0% ' Home Electronics B Computers $879,621 2.9% $1,319884 P:7% - $2,199,505 2.0% Home.Furnishings BACCessones $1,095,368 3.0% $2,750,807 2.9% $3!846;175 3.0% Home Improvement " B Gardening $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 0.0% Housewares Appliances $1;735,793 3.9% $1;920.720 - - 1.7% $3,656,513 2.3% Jewelery B Accessories $1;322;380 99% $2,354,999 6:2% $3;677,378 2.3% M ijbrAppl apces s0 0 .',SO 0.0% s0 0.0% Multimedia Books B Music - $942:123 5.9% $206;046 0:5% $1,148;171 2.0% Specialty Retail' :$2;254;283 - 10.0% $696,216 - 12% $2,950499 3.7% Sporting Goods - $0 0.0% ,$0 0.0% Toys 'B Hobbies .$6 0,0% 0.0% $0 0.0% Entertainment -- - - _ - $0 0.0% $0 0.0 % ,SO - - 0.0 Restaurant B Cafes $1,722,815 2.0% $51,867 0.0% $1,774,682 0:6% TOTAL SALES : -' F.,, ,. 9,,$43,796,700 TABLEA 0:9 KECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY 2005 '� 2008 2010, 2013 Alcohol .8 Tobacco 0'0% Personal Cara' 0.0 % Personal Services 0.0% - Pharmacy 0.0% Grocery/SpecialtyFood • • Apparel - - - '49.7% 1 1. '75;952 77;282 78;596 78;484 '78;320'. Footwear 10.5% 15;988 16;270 16,552, 16,533 16;505` Home. Electronics B. Computers 4.4% - 6.768 6,887 7,005 6.998 6,988' Home Furnishings 8 Accessories .9.1% 13,986 14,237 14;500 14,509 14,523 Home Improvement& Gardening 0.0% - - _ - Housewares 8 Small Appliances 8.7% 13,296 13,503 13,708 13,695 13,675 Jewelery B Accessones 4.8% '7.355 7,471 7,586 7,579 7,569 Major Appliances 0.0% - _ _ - Multimedia Books &Music 2.5% 3,827 3,904 3,981 3;978 3,973 Specialty Retail 7.7% 11,802 12,071 12,342 12,329 12,311 Sporting Goods 0.0% - _ Toys &Hobbies 0.0% ' - 1 Entert ainment 0 = RestaurantBLa(es L E O .6% 3,944 4,036 4,126 4,116 4,101 TOTAL'�FLOORSPACE F . -��� ':d� % . 1�:0% �, x;:152 4i7 x:;155 659:;ry��158 397 `:W :.158;222., _ .;157;967 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 87 PETALUMA VILLAG.E,FACTORY OUTLETS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target. :STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales Yr. Co`nvenience Retail 0.0 %0 . 0.0% 0.0% $0 million; Comparison Retail 97.4 /a 6.7% 2.9 % $42 million Restaurants & Leisure, 2.6 1 ;8% 0.0% $2 million Total 100% 3.2 1.3 % $44 mii Phasing %Timing Existing retail center has limited additional development capability, recognizing its current poor access to Hwy 101 and poor exposure to arterial roads (Petaluma Blvd. North), However, renovations :to improve exposure and layout of existing retailers could occur immediately. However, any other additional development should be considered after better regionally accessed sites have infilled with,retail development. Implementation, „Layout &.Streetscape Strategies 1. Improve directional signage on how to access the site, from Petaluma Blvd and from Hwy 10'1. 2. Existing buildings are not optimally configured to invite shopping and turn back to exposure, therefore externalizing shops could be improvement. 3. Although Target Department store has been identified as a candidate for an adjacent expansion parcel, based on the lack of direct access to Hwy 101', this site may not be optimal for Target or for Petaluma. A. Other potential retail uses that could evolve this site could include a Home Furnishings warehouse outlet type or home appliances store. Direct'Economice Impacts $44 'rriillion in trade area Annual Retail .,Sales plus est. additional $1-2 million of visitor../tourist spending from beyond trade, area. $0.56 million in Sales Tax Revenue to'City/year.or more_. 5,8R Total, Direct Employees. Target Market' Inflow Segments PTA; STA & Regional Residents & Tourists. • Val u_ a to Moderate price points: FIG.URE' 10.1 1 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION /Y1 .: 8, a a� 1'0.1 Petaluma leakage & 5ustaioable Retail' Strategy Study, June 2004 - Page 88 lei - 10.8 _ EDW:OOD CENTER /KOHL'S: RETAIL POSITIONING STRATEGIES Recommended- Positioning & Format ❑ Value Box Retail Center: ❑ Total of 170,000 to 190,000 sq: ft: Anchored By Zoning Direction Junior. Discount Apparel Department Store Retail Mix Value Apparel & Footwear • Jewelry & Accessories Value House &,Home • Family & Cafe Style Restaurants Proposed Retail Functions ➢ Highway Strip Commercial: Development Direction Develop with Value Box Reto ,in a 'Strip . Configuration. This 16.21 acre site. is ,proposed. for development with a .95,853 sq. ft. Junior Discount Department Store having 88,248 sq. ft. of sales floor area. In addition, the proposal calls for 70,640 sq. ft. of other retail uses, primarily situated in two "Baby Boxes" of, .between 25,000 sq. ft. to 30,000 sq. ft. and Hire units of less than 1.0,000 sq. ft. Although this proposal will bring 'needed and refreshing national retail brands and price poinfs to Petaluma it may also have a small affect on the performance and market share2 capture of`the existing and dated K' -Mart and JC Penny stores situated of the Petaluma Plazas, requiring them to consider repositioning improvements. Site :Strenci /Weaknesses • Large linear,exposure & frontage to Hwy 101 & McDowell. • Excellent access to Hwy. 10`1 inferchange/Old Redwood Hwy.. • Close to populous Petaluma East PTA. • Strategic Northern gateway location will have trade area appeal and draw from North STA. • Close to office and business °park employment. - Not in the critical mass armature of Washington St. 1 • TABLE 10.10 PROJECTED SALES &_ TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY ;WpV' GATEGORY(2003)'� t `' gam° �v ���"tAacEr SALES sr oa1c1N � ; ;: ,�,ror';1 TRADE u�.- ,.^ ._ "`,P.TA'+" ,PTA CAPTUREa. ,.„C :STA">p `, ylsTiiG+1PT1uiE :AREA SALES. -'Ti,�c�PTUnEi QN „YENIEpICE - " T77$T" 99= -. _ a�Qf74 ...0.074 c'b`ft 6Hfs9;i W `�„'30.29G Alcohcl B..TObaCGe $0 0.0% ' $0 0 $0 0.0% Personal Care - $0 X0.0%" _ $0 0:0% $0 0.0% Pei Services $1,600;101 5:0% $96282 O'1 %, '$1,696 L5% Pharmacy $0 0:0% '$0 00, $0 0.0% Grocery/Specially Food, $0 a_ 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0 Appare l $10,491.585 16.7. % $8526,858 5.3% $19;018:443 ''.8:5% Footwear. ..$2;546;458 16.7% $1,690,6 4'.3% '$4,237;136 .7 -.8% Home, Electronics Computers $0 '0.0% $0 00% I$0 '0.0% Home Furnishings & Accessories - .$4'.746!597' 13.0% $4,375,940 47% $9122;5315 70% Home Improvement &:Gardening $0 0.0 % $0 0.0% .$o 0.0% Housewares "& "Small Appliances $4.575;782 10..2% $808,596 07% $5;364,379 3.4% Jewelery VA- $2 529558 170% $1,224.183 3.2% $3.753,741 3.4% Major Applances '$0 0:0 %' $0 0.0% '$0. 0'.0% Mullinnedo Ecorks &Music: :$0 OA% $0 0.0% $0 0,0% Specialty Retail $o' 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0°/ Sporting Goods $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 - 0:0% Toys i kdbwes $0 0:0% $0 '0'.0 $0 a:o Emenarnmen Restaurant BCafes $6,714,939 7,8% $1;453.423 0.7% $8168.362 2:7.% T OTALSALES - =� , ., dm�3:zos;oio , -,sex = ,fle.us.�o a .�ror. g'i5tse0:§so zitx TABLE 10.11. RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX ,& FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FE,ET). CATEGORY ;WpV' /, of 2003 2005 2008, a 2010 x2013 �wd_ E _ CEa . 4'956 8,4$25? Alcohol &'Tobacco 0.0/, Personal, Care 0.0% Personal Services. 49% 8,482•: 8,683. .8;883 8,867 _ 8;844 Pharmacy 0 _ __ _ _ Grocery/Specialty, Food Appa�ei 420% - 73148 74,618. 76,089 75;995 75;857' Footwe5r' 8.1% :14,124 14413 14,703 '14' 14:659 Home Electronics &'Computers 00 % - Home Furnishngs 8' Accessories 19.0% 33,173 33,839, 34,515 34,497 '!34,471 Home Impmvement &': Gardening 0.0% - - Housewares &.Small Appliances 11.2% 19.580 20,062 20;576 20.522 20,441 Jewelery '& Accessories 4.3% 7,507 7,667 7;830 7,827 7.822 Major Appliances 0.0% - Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% Specialty . Retail 0.0% Sporting Goods 0.0% Toys '& Hobbies . 0.0% 1 1 Entertainment - 0.0 % Restaurant & Cafes 10.4% 18;152 18,641 `19,118 19,057 18,967 TOTAL�FLOORSPACE., `�,1w�, �' �,.,:t1000ks.'�174165� ��°177944x "'- 181�7,14�`. °;181`449 -��181'061r Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 89 REDWOOD CENTER /.KOH S: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2603 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 4.9% 0.5% 0;0% $2 million Gompari'son Retail 84.7% 8.3 % 2.2 °7o $41 million Restaurants :9 Leisure 1.0.4% 7.0% o.6% - $8 million 'Total 100 4.8% 1,.06 $51 mil Phasing %Timing Immediate. Implementation, Layout &. Streetscape Strategies 1. Developer driven' initiative already underway: 2. Layout should "include pad restaurants . on perimeters, of site to exploit exposure &. convenience. 3. j u 0 n or Department Store•Anchor should be placed deep into site, along Hwy. age to have regional exposure and to induce circulation past other retail "units and through the site. 4. Although an auto - orientated 'retail "project, efforts should be made in the parking area 'to facilitate visually appealing & safe pedestrian mobility, including_ landscaping and refuge medians /islands. . Direct Economic lmpa°cts $51 million in trade area Annual .Retail Sales. • $0.51 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City year or more. 52.2 Total New Direct Employees. Tar et Market& Inflow.S ments. PTA, STA &- Regional Residents. Value price point. Target Tenant` Profiles _._,. Kohl's TJ Maxx • Marshalls • Old Navy Chili's . • Burlington Coat_ Krispy K,reme • Olive Garden Star bucks FIG,UR'E 10.13 PROJECTED SPACE &. FLOO'RSPACE ALLOCATION Petaluma leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy' Study, June 2004 Page 90 40 �C F \\ HIGHWAY 4 INTERCHANGE r "'- AN r ` FIGUR Ei 1,0:.14 n y < SITE OVERV.IkW Petaluma leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy' Study, June 2004 Page 90 40 • 10.9 DSL /RANIER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Relocated Home Improvement Center'or Discount Department- Store ❑ Total of 100,000 t 1,10,000 sq. ft. Anchored By: • Home Improvement Center OR Discount Department Store Retail Mix • Home Design & Decorating • Specialty Lighting & Plumbing • Carpeting & Tiles • Hot Tubs, Pools, Decks & Outdoors • Major Appliances • Pad Restaurants Potential Development Directions Zoning Direction ➢ Highway Strip Commercial Develop Direction ➢ Relocate and expand one of existing , Home Improvement Centers (OSH or Yardbirds), OR, create a new Discount Department Store pad. TABLE 10.12 A proposal was on the table to build a large format Home Improvement Warehouse store (e.g. Lowes) of 134,000 sq. ft. on this site in conjunction with another 49,000 sq. ft. of inline retail units on this 16.46 acre site. Introduction of a new Home Improvement Warehouse store would require a large degree of PTA and STA market share and would therefore have a detrimental affect on the sales and survival of the existing OSH and Yardbirds Home Improvement Centers. An alternative may be to relocate and expand one of these existing, Petaluma retailers on the DSL /Ranier site. Other complementary retailers could include "Home Decorating & Design" stores that cluster well with such an anchor store. As well, the proximity of nearby business parks and employment also presents an opportunity for fast food. Alternatively, the.immediate availability of,the site could be attractive for a Discount Department Store. However, the site size and location are not optimal, as opposed to other better nearby sites near interchanges with Washington St. and Hwy. 101. PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES �ry CATEGOR }� Y$�(2003) �.TnRCer sues ey oalalN:�� '�.'�� ~�TOTnt TwwE ^., � � + ' ,y "��.�., zU,Y�ZRTAt. d !Pf c iG . Mi�fSTA � g iik MfUPEv A_ Alcohol B Tobacco $0 0.0% $0 00% Personal Care $0 '0.0% $0 0.0°/ Personal Services $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Pharmacy $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food .$0 0.0% $0 0.0% .% Apparel '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% r $0 0.0% Footwear $0 0.0% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Home Electronics &Computers $3,067.445 10.0% $1,412,201 1.8% $4,479.647 41% Home, Furnishings . &.Accessories $1,825.61'4 5.0% $6 658,744 0.7.% 52484,358 1.9% Home' Improvement& Gardening $6,549.433 .29.4% $3.181,649 5.6% $9,731,082 12.3% Housewares B Small Appliances $2,235,380 5.0% $1,482.996 1.3% $3,718,376 2.3% Jewelery ; B Accessories s0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 2.3% Major Appliances' $2,071;4 .20.2% .$1,195,830 4.6% $3.267,315 9.0% Multimedia Books & Music $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 0.0% Specialty. Retail $0 0.0% '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% Sporting Goods 10 011% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Toys &.Hobbies $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0 Entertainment. $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 'OD% Restaurant '& Cafes $2,685,976 3.1% $0 0.0% $2,685.976 0.9 % L TOTASALES#'E!'"_ �t.' '�`� , r +�- ✓c: ,$18.435,336 . x , %, 2.7% °�'>' $7,931;419 , .-.:? 0:5 'tt &368.753 ,w,t t TABLE 10.13 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 91 DSL /RANIER SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target (Based on Home. Imp. Scenario) Mix ° o Capture Rate Capture_ Rate Sales/Yr. Home. Improvement 43:2 %o 29.4 % 5.6% $10 million Other Comparison 50.8% N/A N/A $14 million Restaurants & Leisure 6.0% 2. 8% 0.0% $2 million Total .100% 2.7% 0.5% $26 mil Phasing /Timing 1 to 3 years Implementation, Layout & Streetscape Strategies 1. Developer driven initiative a_ lready underway. 2. Layout - should include pad restaurants along McDowell to exploit exposure & convenience. 3. Anchor store should be placed deep into site, along Hwy. 101 frontage to have regional exposure and to induce circulation past other retail units and through the site 4. Although an auto - orientated retail project, efforts should be made in the parking area to facilitate visually appealing & safe pedestrian mobility, including landscaping and refuge medians /islands. Direct Economic Impacts • $26 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. $0.26 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. • 300 Total New Direct Employees. Target Market & Inflow Segments • PTA,.STA & Regional Residents. • Value price, point. Site Strengths /Weaknesses • Good frontage & access to McDowell • Some visibility from Hwy 01 on /off ramps • Readily available clear site for development - Not directly accessible from Hwy. 101 - Limited site size for a. Power Center development - Squeezed between office industrial & residential uses - Not part of an established critical mass of retail activity (such as that along Washington St.) e FIGURE 10.15 PROJECTED SPACE & FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE OTHER COMPARISON HOME IMPROVEMNTS 50.8 %$14M 43.2 %$10M rtiY Y �1TF�0\/E�tVIE•!IV ��•`�`` "P,� -� �' f; �� f t d �" \� \•ter' ,� �, y ��` TT `�! a, � ``� �-.i e �' cqu•. O v «x ��p t i rm, - Target Tenant Profiles Sears Great Indoors Sherwin Williams Bucca di Beppo • Ethan Allen Beachcomber Hot Tubs Denny's • Sleep Country Kohler Fixtures Krispy Kreme Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 92 6,% $2 M. 100 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH & SOUTH): • RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES TABLE 10.14 Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Regional Destination Strip Center. ❑ Large Format & 'Baby Box Retail. ❑ Total of 320,000 to 340,000 sq. ft. Anchored Br. • Discount Department Store • Value Apparel & Footwear • Specialty Grocery • Pharmacy Zoning Direction ➢ Highway & Community Commercial Dev elopment Direction Retail Mix House & Home • Value & Mid- Priced.Apparel • Housewares & Small Appliances • Sports, Toys, Hobbies & Crafts • Pad Restaurants Intensify and rehabilitate as a Highway Commercial Strip Retail Center. Intensification of Existing Retail Center Like the Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site, this site is at Petaluma's most important interchange of Washington Street with Highway 1.01. In conjunction with Washington Street, this interchange forms the linkage between East and West Petaluma and is the gateway to the populated Eastern areas. Accordingly, to complement Downtown and stimulate regional attraction and cross- shopping within Petaluma, this is seen to' be the best location for improving the "Discount Department Store" offering of Petaluma. This strategy could involve improving the existing K- Mart, JC Penny, and Ross, or replacing one of these with a new Target Department store (something which is missing in Petaluma. The site however is challenged by ground lease tenure that may have implications on availabilit.y for introducing new tenants and needed repositioning /rehabilitation of the center. Site Strengths /Weaknesses • Linear exposure & frontage to Hwy 101. • Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street & to region via Hwy 101 interchange. • At geographic center of Petaluma. • Gateway to Eastern Petaluma. - Ground lease tenure. - Dated buildings require rehabilitation. • PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY (2003) x� =" gTARGET SALES BY ORIGIN P, a aarf TOTAL TRADES �,tF 1 ffix � ,.._.� b.:a. PTA& -.o-r SarA CUnusE- -_, d_., AREA CONYENIENCEI ,,,�STA w�.v2�x fq,8110,8t7 - ;18;tX 9 741„ZO4 ,,�sis c4vru�K SILLES ,urA Crrrurte� � 1. !4 f55.64Y.'1$t Alcohol 8 Tobacco $8.349,673 18.7% $368,467 0.3% $8,718,140 5.5% Personal Care $2,854;227 17!i% $326,630 0.8% $3;180,857 5.4% Personal Se -ces $5.694,960 17.8% $938.392 1.1% $6.633,353 5.8% Pharmacy $12,175.491 23.4% - $2.006;196 1.5% $14,181,687 7.7% Grocery/Specialty Food $18,826,597 12.8% $4;101,518 1.1% 522,928,115 4.4% Apparel . - $8,179,226 13.0% $4,578,831 2.9% $12,758,057 '5.7% Footwear, $2,070,493 13.6% $1,085,258 2.8% $3.155,750 5.8% .Home Electronics 8 Computers ` $1.262,975 4.1% $36,927 0.0% 51.299,902 ' 1.2% Home Furnishings B Accessories $3,998,003 10.9% $2,232.926 2.4% $6,230,929 4.8% Home Improvement& Gardening .b0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 .B.B% Housewares B Small Appliances $7,080.831 15.8% $2,861,108 2.5% $9.941.938 6,3% Jewelery . B Accessories $1488,241 10.0% $1,014,056 2,7% $2:502,297 6.3% Major Appliances $2;334.974 22.8% $656,194 2.5 $2.991,168 8.2% Multimedia Books B Music $978,980 6.1% $447,714 1.1% $1,426.694 2.5% Specialty.Retail $1.127,142 5.0% .$629,574 1.1% $1,756,716 2.2% Sporting Goods $1.739,619 19.8% $654,925 2.9% $2,394;544 7.7% Toys B Hobbies $2,216;129 15.0% $1,056:408 2.8% $3.272.537 6.2% Entertain $0 0.0% so 0.0% $0 0.0% Restaura$6,511,434 7.6% $1,053;212 0.5% $7.564,646 2.5% Ol AL _. t`ffie sas;ssa 'r iz:axf24;wa,33s TABLE 10.15 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) GATEGOR �Y y �� /oof°? Aft *� 2003��2005� 2008 2010 " 2013 * �' 1 ffix .',L, 'S Sr. �r' xz"�.w4%hra��- `,Y.SimvFxuwC�sis GONIlENIENC �; t Ij SMAIA% V&1 X 28713j724 ' 141;384 ' 141'583 47,885 Alcohol B Tobacco 4.5% _.34 X14,530 14;892 '15,246 15,203 15,140' Personal Care 4.9 % 15,904 16.333 16;761, 16.726 16;675 Personal Services 10.2% 33,167 34;004 34,832 34,756; 34 Pharmacy 8.3% 27,013 27,778 28,530 28,445. 28,318 Grocery/Specially Food 13.5% 43,673 44 46,015 46.452 Apparel 15:4% 49,069 - 50,044 :51;016 50,945 50.842` Footwear 3.2% 10,519 10,736 10.953 10,938 10,916 Home Electronics 'a Computers 1.2% 4,000 4;113 4,224 4,212 4 Home Furnishings 8 Accessories 7.0% 22,658 23,134 23,607 23,568 23,512 Home Improvement 8 Gardening 0.0% - - _ - - Housewares 8 Small Appliances 11.2% 36,153 36;895 37,621 37,537 37,415 Jewelery B Accessories 1.5% 5.005 5,103 5,202 5,197 5,188 Major Appliances 4.1% 13,294 13,611 13,927 13,904 13.869 Multimedia Books 8 Music 1.5% 4,756 4,856 4,954 4,941 4,923 Specialty Retail 2.2% 7,027 7,162 7,295 7,282 7,262 Sporting Goods 2.7% 8,707 8,892 9,077 9,063 9,043 Toys 8 Hubbies 3.7% 11,900 12.154 12.408 12,393 12.371 Entertainment 0.0% - - _ - - RestaurantBCafes 5.2% 16,810 17,167 17.554 17,506 17,434 TOTAL' FLOORSPACE: v, � k;' »100.0% .: 324'184'. M x':1331'612 '= 339 222 ; ^':339;0697- 338`864 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 93 10.11 PETALUMA PLAZAS (NORTH & SOUTH): RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Famous Footwear Mix -% Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 41.4 1.6.4% 1:0 %0 $56 million Comparison Retail 53.4% 10.8% 2.0% $48 million Restaurants & Leisure 5''2% 6.8% 0. 4% $7 million Total 100% 12.6% 1.4% $111 mil Phasing /Timing As soon as ground lease issues can be resolved. Implementation Layout & Streetscape Strategies 1. City could participate in resolving lease issues and consolidating lands to accommodate a new Discount Department Store anchor. This strategy would catalyze. project owners developers to rehabilitate other portions of the centers. If a Target Store was to locate on any other site in Petaluma, it would also have the affect of requiring the Petaluma Plazas to be rehabilitated and repositioned, and the likely loss of either K -Mart and /or JC Penny, due to the shift of market share. to the newer store. 2. Discount Department Store anchor should be placed either along the Hwy 101 frontage, with other "Baby Box" retail sub - anchors at the North and South ends of the centers. 3. The North end of the site could have more of a "Convenience /Service" orientation, anchored by Pharmacy & Grocery, while the South end could be anchored by value and box retail. 4. Restaurants should be along McDowell and a potential entrance drive into the parking area. 5. Although built as a larger format retail center, a contrived street through the parking area, with landscape and water features should be created to . provide a "sense of place" and ensure safe pedestrian movement throughout. Direct Economic Impacts • $1 1 1 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales or more. • $1.1 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. ° 972 Total Direct Employees (of which 195 are New Employees). • Target sales performance of $343 psf/yr. Target Market & Inflow Segments • PTA, STA & Regional Residents. • Value to Moderate price points. FIGURE 10.17 rmujcc. i cu & hLUUKJNACat ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE COMPARISON RETAIL CONVENIENCE RETAIL 53.4% $48 M 41.4% $56 M C074 Vtu Linens N' Things • Ross Dress Foe Less Michaels Crafts • TJ Moxx Famous Footwear • Backyard Burgers Starbucks S S 1} e... - •+� C0 PA ft I C) N APO ' cv.' FIGU ' Z. -:SITE OVERVIEW HicNwAV s. - % INTERCHANGE Target Tenant Profiles • Target Linens N' Things • Ross Dress Foe Less Michaels Crafts • TJ Moxx Famous Footwear • Backyard Burgers Starbucks Trader Joes Big Bowl Longs California Pizza Kichen Blockbuster Marie Callender's Au Bon Pain Mimi's Cafe Ruby Tuesday Cold :Stone Creamery • Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 94 5.2% $7 M 10.1 VNASWi1VGT0N SQUARE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning t Format ❑ Community Conve nience Strip Center. ❑, Supermarket &, Baby Box Retail: ❑ Total of 1',50.,000 to 760 ,000 sq. ff. Anchored $v: • Supermarket Grocery • 'Value Apparel ,& Footwear Zoning Direction Community Commercial Retail Mix Personal Services Pad Restaurants Development Direction ➢ Maintain Center in current "Convenience" forma €. Key Retail Development Opportunh This existing Convenience Strip Retail Center is strategically located to serve the "Convenience" retail needs of East Petaluma. Other than some minor All of restaurants and services, this retail center should remain much in its current retail format and positioning. Site Strength s /Weaknesses +.'Excellent exposure from . M Dowell., • Excellent access to Petaluma via Washington Street 8r to region ,via Hwy 10 P interchange. • Near geographic center of Petaluma. + At *the Gateway to Eastern Petaluma, Lacks visibility &, exposure. to: Hwy, 101 . - Site is largely built -out. TABLE 10.16 rKUJECTED. SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY�� CATEG0 RY'(2003) - a TARGET X2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 SALES BY;ORIGIN "' TOT/LL�TItADE ..„,cPTA.r evrAcAViueE. ;a STA`*s.. „tiTA = "<; "nii GONVEN_(E_NCE r �`� '- .K. -,.- 9. % CAVrury AREA'SALES cr�>t'wie Mn 75G AI ohol &,Tobacco w349.673 18 To/. $268 0.2% $8 5 A Personal Care $2,802,537 16'.8% S100i569 0.2% $2,903;106 4i9% Personal. Services $4,094.859 12.8 % $192,565 0.2% $4;287,424 3!8% Pharmacy $8;116.994 15.6%_ $313,077 0.2 $8,430;071 416% Grocery/Specialty Food $24,127,004 164 $884;423 0.2% S25,011';427 4[8% Apparel $2,516,685 4.0 "/0 - $1064;134 07% 13;580;819 V6% Footwear $848!819 5.6% $258,669 Oil% $1,107;489 2!0 Home' Electronics &.Computers• '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0;0% Home Furnishings & Accessories, $0 ' 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Home'Improyement &Gardening 80 '.0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0'0% H - sewares & SmA Appl ances ,SO 0:0% $0 0.0% $0 00% Jewelery & Accessories $612,333 4.1.% $26',953 0.1,% $639,286 0.0% Major Appliances• '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books &.Music $6 0.0% $0 00% $0 0.0% Spec alty.,Retail $928 4'-l% $40;740 0.1 % $968,764 1`2% Sporting Goods, Aso ,0.0% $0 0.0% .$0 0'0 Toys;& Hobbies •$0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0:0 Entertainment. $9 0.0 %' so 01 - - $0 0:0° RestauranF &Cafes $6:714,939 7 -.8 $155,600 01% $6' 70,539 22/ TOTALSALEs 7 ,,- �, x ,359;111(Bp __.... aBY. 53,36s,tz4 =" �v" , . 7 " "0.2% TABLE 10.17 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) CATEGORY�� ° {oOf� X2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 OEN6 . . x , 5� A? 3kt2R.� Alcohol &Tobacco 9. % 1063 14 15A74 151034. 14;976 Personal Care 9.6% 14;516 14 924 ,15;329 - 15,297' 15,235 Personal Services 141% 21:437 22,017 22,588 22,526 22;435 „Pharmacy 10.6% 16,057 16.545 17,027 16' 16,908 Grocery/Specialty.Food. • • 31.4 ° /, 47,641 481815 50;283 50,790 51562 Apparel 91f:A 1 t 13:772 X14,080 14;397 14.379 14,361 Footwear _ 2.4% 3,692 3;781 3,871 3,866 3,860 Home. Electronics & Computers 0.0% - Home;Furnishings &Accessories 0.0% - Home, mp -ement &Gardening 0.0% Housewares &Small Appliances 0.0% - Jewelery &Accessories 0.8% 1,279 - 1,315 1,352 1,349 1,345 Major Appliances 0.0% - _ - Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% - _ - Specialty Retail 2.6% 3,875 3,985 4,092 4.081 4.064 Sporting Goods 0.0 %, - _ - Toys 8 Hobbies' 0.0% - Entertainment 0 Restaurant 8 Cafes 10.1% 15,268 15,709 16,136 - 16,073 15,981 TOTALWFL"OORSPACE ,,, ,Y w„ .r,., .; X161',900, ,t'. x155,893 =160, 143 - 180,369.:= Aa;160;726 Petaluma Leakaqe & Sustainable Retail Strateav Studv- -tuns 9nnd a.,,,e 0 10.12 WASHINGTO14 SQUARE; RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix ° o ' Capture Rate Capture Rate. Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 75.1% 16.2 0.2 % $49 million Comparison Retail, 14.90 o 1.6% 0.2% $6 million Restaurants .& Leisure 1 0. 1 % 70% 0.1%_ $7 million TotaC 1.00% 8.6% 0.2% $6,2 mil Phasinq /Timing Not 'applicable. Implementation, Layout & Streetscape Strategies 1. Introduce more variety` of family dining and casual restaurants, particularly - along McDowell frontage.. 2.1 Improve pedestrian friendliness and landscape features or parking area. Direct Economic Impacts $62 million •in; trade area Annual Retail Sales oc more. $.62 „million in `Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. • 456 Total Direct Employees' • Target sales performance; of $41 1 psf/yr, Target Market & Inflow Segments • PTA & STA .Residents • Value to Moderate price points. J �n rs ��dilr/Iants, e u r. )s FIGURE 10.19 PROJECTED SPACE; &,.FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION COMPARISON RETAIL 15 % $6' -M RESTAURANTS & LEISURE 10% $7 M 'CONVENIENCE RETAIL 75'% $49 M FIGURE/ SITE CIVERVIEW WASFiIINGTON f� f ! HIGHWAY INTERGtiANGE y jl / ` ✓��'�'. -:, Petc luma &age & Sustainable Retail Strategy'Study, June 2004 Page 96 0 10.APETALUMA GATEWAY & SURROUNDS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Community Convenience 'Center. ❑ - Total of 1 to 120,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv. Supermarket Grocery Zoning Direction ➢ Community Commercial Retail Mix • Convenience Retail • Personal Care • Personal :Services • Fast Food' • Grab & Go Food & Beverage Convenience Retail Evaluation Development Direction Retain- existing center as is Convenience retail centers are performing well in Petaluma and therefore there is not a significant need to redevelop or amend the retail mix of this center: Furthermore, the center is not that old and is visually appealing and makes goo_ d use of its site, therefore redevelopment in the foreseeable future is Likely not necessary. Site Strengths /Weaknesses • Good frontage to Lakeville Hwy. • Established convenience retail node. • Close to Hwy. 1 on /off ramps. • Albertson's'is a strong anchor. - Not close to where people currently live. - In an Industrial /Strip Commercial area. TABLE 10.18 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY (2003) r , f g TAaGET SALES BY ORFGl a ?:srnuili� AREASALES asp Tiikc CONYl4 WORk.or" am" -s . Viinr�:% Alcohol 8 Tobacco $5.457,173 12.2 % $5361789 0 $5.993,962 318% Personal Care $2.040,007 12.2% $150,854 0. $2;190.861 3:71/6 Personal Services $2,842,339 8.9% $192,565 0.2% $31034,904 2.7.% Pharmacy $7,514:994 14.4% $626,153 0.5% '$8,141';147 4'.4% Grocery/Specialty Food $21,201,631 14,4% $1,768,846 0.5% .$22:970476 4A% Apparel $629;171 V12 1 own= $75.639 0.0 °/ $704.810 - 0:3% Footwear $0 00% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Home. Electronics 8 "Computers $0 0o $0 0:0% $o 0.0% Home:Furnishings BAccessaries $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $o 0.0% Homelmproycment B,Gardening $0 '0.0 % $0. 0.0% $o 0.0% 'HOusewar s B SmajlrAppliances $0 0.0%' $0 0.0 $0 0.0% Jewelery.B Accessories. $446,472 "10% $164465 0.5% $630.938 0.0% Major Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0_% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books B' Music $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 0.0% '.Specialty Retail' _ .$1,127,142 5.0% $67;900 0.1.% $1;19 L5% Sporting Goods $0 .'10.6% $0 0A ,$o 0:o% Toys B Hobbies s0 _0.0 % '- $0 0.0% .$0 '0.0% Entenainment - $0 0.0% $0 0.0% '!$D - 0.0% Restaurant 8`Cafes $2,102,643 2.4% $103,733 _ 0.0% .., $2,206,37fi .._ 0:7:/, TOT/LLs,SAL ES _ ...._ C ... 1'f43361.571t_ .,'6.3%a' -S3 T,06,9l3c, "0:2% c-S47,068;515 19°. TABLE -10.19 - Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 97 PETALUMA. GATEWAY &-SURROUNDS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED), 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target, Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Saies/Yr., Convenience Retail 87.5% 13.3% G4% $42.millioii Comparison Retail 8.0% 076/6 - 0.0% $3 million Restaurants & Leisure 4.5% 2' 2% .0.0% $2 million Total 100% 6.3% 0.2% $47 mil Phasing/Timing Existing retail 6e . nter. 'Direct - Economic Impacts $47 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales,. $0.47 million 1n Sales Tax Revenue to City,/year or more. • 327 Total Direct Employees (of which 1,02 are New Employees). Target Market 9, Inflow Segments 0 PTA Residents. FIGURE 10.21 rKUJtL1 LU 5 ' rALL - 5t I [7 RETAIL RESTAURANTS & LEISU 9% $3 M 4.59/ $2 M X11 � -IUMA PEUL GATE �A Lak Hi way HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE 7:T FIGURE 16.2-2 mil - SIE OVERVIEW Petaluma Leakage, & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, 2004 Page 98 0 C014VENIENCE RETAIL 87 V42, M 10.1 OSH /ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended 'Positioning & Format ❑ Community Convenience & Home Improvement Center. ❑ Total of 90.,000 to 100,000 sq. ft. Anchored Bv: Zoning Direction Home Improvement.. ➢ Community Commercial Warehouse Center Retail ,Mix • Convenience Retail • Personal Care Personal Services • Fast Food & Casual Dining Development Direction ➢ Retain existing center as is an enhance OSH, or potentially relocate OSH to a larger site (such as nearby ,DSL Ranier). Infill and Tenant, Mix Opportunities Recognizing the strength of OSH, there is an opportunity to enhance and establish a "Home Decorating & Design Center," that could have specialized bath & plumbing fixtures, paint & decorating, electrical/lighting, etc. The proximity of nearby business parks and employment also presents an opportunity for an improved food and beverage offering. Site Strengths; Weaknesses • Good frontage & access to McDowell. • Established home improvement center. • Close to Hwy 101 on /off ramps. - Not directly visible from Hwy. 101. - Small site size is. limiting on expansion of OSH. - Mix of service convenience retail with home improvement center is not optimal. • TABLE 10.20 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY - (2003) h aTARGETSALES6Y:ORfGIN TOTALTRADE -;; C O�1VEf8ENCE " 4PTA` rtA Ciivruns &&r ,rSTA, +`"Tr i64lncE �' AREA'SALES,€'tr.tavtimet, . 5,064 5,204. 5,339 5,321 5.294' Personal Care , 4:5% 4,328 - 4,434 4,540 4;532 4',522; Personal Services 10.2% 9,893 10,100 10,308 16,295 10,277 Alcohol B Tobacco $2,984;761 6 7 / $53,679 0 05 13 1'.9% Personal Care $835,397 5.0% $30,171 0.07% $865,568 1 ^.5% Personal Services $1,882.279 59% $96,282 0.12% $1978,561 1.7 Pharmacy $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 X 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Apparel $0 0 $0 0.0% $0 Sporting Goods Footwear $D 0.0% $0 oA% $0 0 Home Electronics & Computers $6 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.11% Home FurQtslbimgs .& Accessories $0 0.0% $0 0.0% '$0 0.0% Home lmprovemenI B Gardening '$10,150,911 45.6% $5,714',730 10.0 % $15,875.641 20.0% Housewares sniall Appliances $0 '0.0% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Jewelery & Accessories $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Major Appliances $0 0.0% '$0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimeda Books &,Music s0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Specialty,Relail $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% SportmglGoods $0 0.0% ;$0' M% $0 0.0% Toys!& Hobbies $0 0.0% $0 I 0`0% $0 0.0% Entertainment _ - $0 0.0% $6 - 00% WEEK Restaurant . &.Cafes $3.167,556 3.7% $51,867 0,02% $3,219,423 11.% OTAL „SgLES"'*'t'a., „ `>z.ex ,;'; 7%5 ;94ST29 TABLE 10.21 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX, & FLOOR,AREA (INSQUARE FEET) CATEGORY °� of- A 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 19 A o C O�1VEf8ENCE " 199X ' 18285 ' 1 �'I '. �4�49 :. Alcohol '& Tobacco - 52% . 5,064 5,204. 5,339 5,321 5.294' Personal Care , 4:5% 4,328 - 4,434 4,540 4;532 4',522; Personal Services 10.2% 9,893 10,100 10,308 16,295 10,277 Pharmacy 0'_0 - Grocery /Specially Food ° 0.0% - - - - - Apparel O o Footwear 06 Home Electronics &Computers 6.0% Home Furnishings & Accessories _ 6:0% Home Improvement 8 Gardening 72.7% • 70;558 72,074 73,576 73.451 73,266 Housewares '& Small Appliances 0.0% Jewelery & Accessories 0,0% Major Appliances 0.0% Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% Specialty Retail 0.0% - - - - - Sporting Goods 0.0 % Toys & Hobbies 0.0% - Entertainment 0.0% 1 t - - - - . Restaurant & Cares 7.4% 7,154 7,373 7,583 7,550 7,501 TOTAL F..LOORSPACE..., , .e.is*,;w .. .100D%... . 96'997 99,183i:F. 101346 a1011492zi1006Q ". Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2604 Page 99 OSH /ORCHARD PLAZA CENTER: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TiARGEM Retail Target'PTA Tor .-,get Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales .Yr , Convenience Retail 19.9 % 1.9 % 0.0% $6 million Comparison Retail 72_.7 % '3:4 0.7 $16 million Restaurants & Leisure 7.4 3.3 0. 0% $3 million Total 100% 2.8 % 0:3% $25 mil Phasing /Timing Existing retail center. Direct'E'conomic Impacts Although OSH would require 45.6% of the PTA market and 10 % of the, STA market, it would still only justify about 71,000 sq. ft: of Horne Improvement, Gardening 8& Building Supplies selling area. This level of market share is seen to be high and accordingly,, there would be limited opportunity to introduce another major Home Improvement Center' operator into Petaluma,. without adversely affecting the sales of OS.H. An alternative would be to either encourage OSH to expand or to relocate OSH to a bigger site with a better configuration. $25 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. ° $0.25 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. 327 Total Direct, Employees (of which 102 are New ,Employees). Target Market & Inflow Segments • PTA 8& STA Residents. Target Tenant Profiles • Sherwin Williams Ruby Tuesdays' Sushi Spot • Liquor Depot ' KFC Office Depot • Big Bowl Brannigan's Irish Pub Staples FIGURE 1.0.23 _ PROJECTED'SPAC.E''& FLOORSPACE ALL OCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE CONVENIENCE. RETAIL 7.4% $3 M 19.9 % $6 M r; r � J,t HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE j `• / ) r FIGURE; 10.2 = �` SITE OVERVIEW Petaluma Leakage &.Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 100 COMPARISON RETAIL 71.7%."$16 M. • 10.15 YARDBIRDS PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Community Home Improvement Lumber Yard. ❑ 'Total of 35,000 to 40,000 sq. ft. Anchored By: Zoning Direction • Home Improvement ➢ Community Commercial Lumber' Yard Retail Mix Development Direction ➢ ° Lumber Yard Retain existing, center • Casual Dining as is and potentially ° Personal Services (Dry Cleaning) enhance Yardbirds. Infill and Tenant Mix Opportunities Similar to OSH/Orchard Plaza Center, recognizing the strength and uniqueness of Yardbirds, there is an opportunity to enhance and establish a "Home Decorating & Design Center" around Yardbirds 'Plaza that could have specialized bath & plumbing fixtures, paint & decorating, electrical /lighting, etc. Also, the proximity of nearby office and hotel and the exposure to Route 116 (Lakeville Hwy.) also presents an opportunity for additional food .and beverage offering. Site Strengths /Weaknesses • Good frontage & access to Route 1 16. • Established home improvement lumber yard. • Close to Hwy 101 on /off ramps. - Not directly visible from Hwy. 101. - Small site size limits expansion of Yardbirds. - Mix of service convenience retail with home improvement center is not optimal. TABLE 10.22 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES 3:L. - N. ..3'%O• CATEGOR (2003) ?49M TARGET SALES BY GRIGIN s 3 r 4 TOTAL TRADE "f ' " 5 Q67 07 xa a _ 5 3 4 _ 1 ea 5 ;$� 3 z'5.296: I WP_TA ` - vr�cwrurffn ,STA - s7�urruae= AREA SALES Personal Care 0.0% .. n4awru8a�- Alcohol & Tobacco $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Personal Care $0 ::0.0 % so 0.0% $0 010% Personal Services $677,883 2.1% $335,604 0.4% $1,013,487 0.9% Pharmacy so 0.0 %. $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Grocery/Specialty Food $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Apparel $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Footwear • Home $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Electronics& Computers s0 0.0% $0 0.0% ,so 0.0% Home Furnishings 8 Accessories $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Home Improvement . &'Gardening $4,458,178 20.0% $1,951,467 3.4% $6409,645 8.1% Housewares 8 Small Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Jewelery & Accessories $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Major. Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books 8 Music so 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Specialty . Retail $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Sporting. Goods $0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 g.o% Toys . &. Hobbies MIMI s0 0.0% $0 0.0% '.$0 0.0% Entertainment $0 0.0% $0 0.0 %, $0 0.0% Restaurant B Cafes $1,342;988 1.6% '$556:948 '0.3% $1;899 0.6% TOTAL' - ;SALES _ € .� x+ .:= .« .„ - �.;° =SS,s�ao4s ', n <:_asx �S2.au. -1e = ru?5;,0.2Ye T 59,323;068 ? ; ,c.,,+' ",;.0.4x TABLE 10.23 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN.SQUARE FEET) CATE g RY4 ' 2003 ' 2005k 20 2010 X 2013 3:L. - N. ..3'%O• +kAan. COt�YE t�9?PICE ~ Alcohol.8 w° .1S:49G " 5 Q67 07 xa a _ 5 3 4 _ 1 ea 5 ;$� 3 z'5.296: Tobacco 0.0% Personal Care 0.0% - Personal Services 13.4% 5,067 5,207 5,341 5,323 5,296 Pharmacy 00% - - Grocery /Specialty Food 0.0% Apparel 0.0% - Footwear 0.0% Home Electronics & Computers 0.0% - Home Furnishings& Accessories 0.0% Home' Improvement& Gardening 75.4% 28487 29,055 29,613 29.557 29,473 Housewares & Small Appliances 0.0% Jewelery '& Accessories 0.0% Major Appliances 0.0% - _ - Multimedia Books & Music 0.0% - Specialty Retail 0.0% Sporting Goods 0.0% Toys 8 Hobbies 0.0% Entertainment 0.0% Restaurant & Cafes 11'.2% 4,222 4,329 4,434 4.422 4,404 TOTAL F.LOORSPACE. , Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 101 P YARDBIRDS PLAZA SITE: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES (CONTINUED) 2003 TARGETS: Retail Target PTA Target STA Target Mix % Capture Rate Capture Rate Sales/Yr. Convenience Retail 19.9 % 1.9 % 0.0 % $6 million Comparison Retail 72.7% 3.4 0.7 9/6 $16 million Restaurants & Leisure 7.4 3.3% 0. 0% $3 million Total 100% 2.8% 0.3% $25 mil Phasing /Timing Existing retail center. Direct Economic Impacts • Although Yardbirds would require .20% of the PTA market and 3.4 % of the STA market, it would still only justify about 38,000 sq. ft. of Home Improvement, Gardening "& Building Supplies selling area. Together with OSH, this means there is only about 34% of the Home Improvement & Gardening market left for another operator into Petaluma, without adversely affecting the sales of OSH and Yardbirds, or potentially wiping them out. An alternative would be to either encourage Yardbirds to expand or to relocate Yardbirds to a .bigger site with a better configuration, then redevelop the Yardbirds Plaza site with tourist - oriented commercial since it is close to the Sheraton Hotel, Marina, Hwy 101 and Route 1 (Lakeville Hwy). • $25 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. • $0.25 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. • 76 Total Direct Employees. Target Market & Inflow Segments • PTA & STA Residents. FIGURE 10.25 ►JECTED SPACE &, FLOORSPACE ALLOCATION RESTAURANTS & LEISURE CONVENIENCE RETAIL 7.4% M 19.9% $6 M Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 102 e e COMPARISON RETAIL 72.7% $16 M HIGHWAY INTERCHANGE �--- _ - �_1 - -.�`� E. �� —'-' .Lakeville HigRway_ YARMR FIGURE' 1 �~ 2 SITE OVERVIEW .` ` `J,t ? �' Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 102 e e COMPARISON RETAIL 72.7% $16 M 10.1 OTHER AREAS: RETAIL POSITIONING & STRATEGIES Recommended Positioning & Format ❑ Street Retail ❑ Convenience /Service Retail ❑ Total of 1 10,000 to 120,000 sq. ft. Zoning Direction Development Direction ➢ Community Commercial ➢ Retain and enhance existing Convenience Retail Evaluation In addition to the retail clusters already identified in previous sub- section recommendations, there are also miscellaneous street and Convenience /Service retail shops along major roads in Petaluma. Where there appears to be redevelopment opportunity, some of these sites may be conducive to "Mixed -Use" commercial development, such as along Petaluma Blvd. South, and Lakeville Rd. Direct Economic Impacts • $47 million in trade area Annual Retail Sales. • $0.47 million in Sales Tax Revenue to City /year or more. 334 Total Direct Employees. Target Market: PTA Residents SOUTHERN GATEWAY AGRITOURISM NODE Recommended Positioning & Format 11 6 TABLE 10.24 PROJECTED SALES & TARGET CAPTURE RATES CATEGORY(2003)€1 a� { t TARCeTSUESeroRlctx�r� aTOTn�TrsAOe , PTA 31'iIiir`rute r yr STA x-...- BTA C�vrutlE %4REA SALES C .nAC�PTiiRE '.. .Alcohol 9;ks; I ' ��18:1�.701 5„_ < x74 .. 44? 835 B Tobacco _ $2,195,924 4.9% $134,197 0.1 $2,330,121 .� e a.� 1.5% Persoriat Care $813,244 4.9% $100.569 0.2% $913,813 1.5% Personal Services $1,600,101 5.0% $96,282 0.1% $1.696,383 1.5% Pharmacy $2.460,015 '4.7% $156,538 0.1% $2,616,553 1A% Grocery/Specialty Food $17,957,668 12.2% $9,651,114 2.6% $27,608,782 5.3% Apparel .$907,004 1.4% MINE= $75,639 0,05% • $982.6420.4% M111111111111111= Footwear $372,854 2.4% $18,386 0.05% $391.239 0.7 % Home Electronics B Computers $0 0.0% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Home Furnishings &Accessories s0 0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Home Improvement B Gardening so 0.0% _ $0 0.0% $0 0,0% Housewares B Small Appliances $0 0.0% $0 0.0% s0 0.0% Jewelery 8`Accessohes $0 '0.0% $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Major Appliances $0 0.0% s0 0.0% $0 0.0% Multimedia Books 8 Music so 0.0% so 0.0% s0 00% Specialty' Retail $2,203,935 9.8% $135,800 0.2% $2.339,735 2.9% Sporting Goods $877,149 10.0% $138.973 0.6 %' $1,016,123 33% Toys&Hobbies $1,229.763 8:3% .$62,046 0.2% $1,291,809 2.5% Entertainment $0 0.0% r $0 0.0% $0 0.0% Restaurant B Cafes $5.885.380 6.8% $363,066 0.2% $6,248.446 2.0% TOTAL ";.SALES,.�,�.,,^�„�,3,y.r V,M, . - .,,`$N,'603.037 k� ,��q `<„w',5.s% iraa$ /0.3Y1811 ;:`a:. -.. » „�0`BY :a>*$47,435;847 TABLE 10.25 RECOMMENDED RETAIL MIX & FLOOR AREA (IN SQUARE FEET) ❑ Agritourist Retail ❑ Temporary & Permanent TastinglDisplay Gallery Format To recognize this tourism /visitor opportunity, the Southern Gateway to Petaluma (near the Petaluma Blvd South exit ramps with Hwy 101') could be enhanced to become the "Gateway to Wine Country ". Accordingly, this node could be positioned to embrace the "Agritourism" culture, offering and lifestyle of Sonoma County by creating the "first and last chance" to experience, buy and take a piece of Wine Country home with them. N. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 103 11. MEGA BOX RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS It has been noted that there is an opportunity to accommodate a "Mega Box" large format destination retailer within Petaluma, most likely at the Fairgrounds site. Such retail ,concepts tend to limit their presence - in a market to very few outlets. Given their destination orientation and uniqueness within the local marketplace, they tend to garner widespread appeal across a broad geographic region. This in turn generates higher levels of patronage to an area, and increases overall cross - shopping activity to nearby retailers, restaurants and. entertainment functions: Given the profound impact of a Mega Box on the overall retail and leisure . development opportunity for a mid -sized community such as Petaluma, it is essential that this analysis provide a range of scenarios from which to estimate the required capture rate necessary to support a Mega Box within the city. There, are several forms of Mega Box concepts currently being rolled out in the American market. Examples of the leading Mega Box retailers include IKEA; Fry's Electronics and Bass Pro Shops, as shown in Figure 11.1. Each of these concepts has its ,own requirements vis -a -vis sales productivity and required capture rate. Mega Box retailers draw from a broad region, with customers willing to drive two or more hours in order to enjoy the wide selection of a specific retail category. As such, it is important to identify a much larger trading region for a Mega Box retailer than for their mainstream counterparts. For a Petaluma location, this expanded Trade Area extended the length of Northern California's' coastal counties, and includes 1.3 million people. Mega Box retailers typically require a minimal trade region of one million people. Petaluma Leakage &Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 104 FIGURE 11. 1 MEGA BOX RETAILERS • TABLE 1 1. 1 MEGA BOX RETAILER SCENARIOS 'PFNAIT11RFr Home Electronics & Computers Major Appliances ` ,Multimedia Books & Music Size Sales Productivity ($ /ft) Total Sales iORNIA' 2003 �x y 2Qt 3 $526;898,007 $602;557,139 $173,681,2091 $201,2.28 ;037 L21I 150,000 150,000 . $600 $696 $90,000,000 $1'04,448 HOME FURNISHINGS MEGA BOX SCENARIO r REQUIRED MARKET SHARE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA r COASTAL COUNTIES EXPENDITURE RETAIL CATEGORY, i�. , 2003 2013 Home Furnishings& Accessories $627,631,468 $718,661,239 Major Appliances $175,681,209 $201,228;037 Housewares & small Appli ian ces $32%624,105 $376 r. T.OTAL;EXPENDITURE _ .. rr.$1;,131•,936;782 $1 „296,348;893 SWO( ER0,,Wi AtdCE„ Size 150,060 150,000 Sales Productivity ($/fi) - $450 $522 Total Sales $67,500,000 $78,336,506 REQUIREVjCA C�„arns ! t f. GOODS MEGA: BOX SCENARIO . MARKET SHARE. OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BOUNTIES; EXPENDITURE les Productivity ($/ft.) tal Sales 1,50,000 150,000 $400 $464 $60,000,000 $69,632,450 Referring to Table 1 1.1, the required capture rate for a viable Mega. Box - operation varies considerably by retail category. Specifically, while a Home. Furnishings operator such as IKEA would require less than 6% of 'the Northwest California market's total expenditure on related categories to achieve its sales productivity target, a. Sporting Goods anchor such as Bass Pro would have to achieve nearly a 40 capture rate. A Home Electronics Mega Box would require approximately a 91 market share to achieve a sales productivity of $600 a square foot. CONCLUSION/IMPLICATION FOR PETALUMA Given the relatively small population base found between the Bay Area and the northern reaches of the State; it is anticipated that either a Home Electronics or Home Furnishings Mega Box operation would be viable for Petaluma. Such a strong regional destination would enhance visitation to the City and enhance overall retail and leisure sales within Petaluma. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 105 12. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Petaluma is a sophisticated retail market that currently lacks the diversity of retail offering that other communities of similar size and composition enjoy. Recognizing perceptions that Petaluma is experiencing a significant degree of 'retail sales leakage and that the community goes unfulfilled for various types of retail, Thomas Consultants Inc., has been commissioned, by the City of Petaluma to prepare a Retail Leakage and Strategy Study. The underlying purpose of this study is to assess and determine the missing, pieces 'in Petaluma' -s retail offering. This purpose is q¢complshed -,by measuring the scope of opportunity, for introducing such retail functions that wilt redirect and re- capture healthy retail sales in Petaluma. The study was prepared during the period July to November 2003, and is augmented by a. Consumer Survey,, which was un_dertaken.in July and August, 2003 to further gauge and quantify the, magnitude of current retail voids and the resultant leakage. This summary section outlines the extent of. retail leakage from Petaluma. It then proceeds to define the proposed solution by describing the following key inputs; *Specific market voids that need to be filled. °Demographic profile that indicate the type of retail tenants that best fill these voids. •Expenditure potential available: to attract these tenants. 'Retail trends and opportunities that provide the foundation ,for successful retail development. -The application of these points to the City of Petaluma across- each of its existing and potential retail clusters. ;�ons'n/larrlc, 12.1: CONSUMER SURVEY To assess items such as the .degree of retail sales outflow, consumer expenditure profile and consumer preferences, a detailed consumer research telephone study was conducted within Petaluma during the period of July to August ;: 2003. The survey interviewed 400 people living within Petaluma and its surrounds. Highlights of the consumer survey results include: ➢ Only 43% of respondents identified 'shopping centers in Petaluma as their regular "Primary Shopping Destination." The alternative shopping destinations that are attracting local residents. are shown in the accompanying graph. PRIMARY COMPARISON SHOPPING CENTERS Cod dington'M all Other Shopping -SR No Primary Centers Petaluma 7% 8% 3% Village Premium Santa Rosa Outlets \ I Plaza � / 13� � � r,:� 7% �\ Downtown. \, Santa. Rosa Marketplace —, : °:. Petaluma 9% 1% Santa Rosa Town Center, k *�, Plaza North PT Village at Corte _ 12% M adera I 4 Town Center Corte Madera - -- ' Washington 0:3% x ,. Square. PT Northgate Mall ���� g% Expressway SR 4./ w� Plaza RP Vintage balks Downtown 2 % Rohnerl Park Wa1 -Marl Plaza Novato 5% RP 2% 8% Average $ Expenditure: Per Month $171.33 Petaluma Leakage ,& Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 106 r • ➢ The majority of respondents shop locally in Petaluma for their day -to -day Convenience needs (as opposed to Comparison. shopping for fashion, large ticket items and specialty goods). Whole foods was identified .as the strongest convenience shopping destination as identified by 25 of respondents. The next strongest convenience centers were Downtown Petaluma and Washington Square. witIh regard to preferred, retail formats and locations, Petalumans' reported :the following: ➢ Preferred retail locations and formats, include an :even balance of preference to add new stores Downtown and close to Highway 101. "Streetfront Retail" and "Unenclosed Specialty Retail" were identified as preferred shopping formats. ➢ The respondent profile suggest that a balanced variety of value mid - ranged and upscale specialty stores is desired. Retail Sales Retention & Leakage The most significant question of 'the survey queried respondents to determine the percentage of their regular shopping that. occurs .either inside or outside of Petaluma. The most significant leakage is occurring for the following categories ranging fro. m 50% to 100 leakage: • Entertainment & Movies • Electronics /Computers • Home Furnishings, Appliances & Accessories • Clothing (Apparel) and Footwear • Books, Music (DVD's) & Media • Sporting Goods, Toys & Habbies • National Full 'Service Restaurants % of Spending Made Outside Petaluma 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% i n. 0% 0, 1P. be . � �Fo° y& �� PQQ�x G ��� y` �e eii \ye �. �' Cdr Qi' °�� c b'r _.pa Qw o\ �e `` •- . � 11 C The only Comparison Retail categories that are: being retained' within Petaluma include Specialty Retail, and Home Improvement. However, Petaluma- appears to be retaining between 60 %0' to 75 % of Convenience ,and Service Retail functions s, uch as Grocery and Pharmacy. The leaking retail categories identified` by respondents confirm the scope of retail voids and opportunities for Petaluma. Stores and services that would increase visits to Petaluma are: ❑ Movie Theatre & Other Entertainment Venues ❑ Discount Dept. Store /Dept. Store ❑ Home Electronics & Computers Store Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 107 .) Next most desired stores to add are: Apparel(Clothing) /Footwear Books & Music (DVD's) & Media ➢ Home Improvement & Garden' ➢ Spec alty,Retail, Entertainment/ Leisure Local &, National Full Service Restaurants ➢ Casual Dining ➢ Specialty Food Grocery. 12.. 2 RETAIL SALES LEAKAGE In addition to the•!Consumer Survey, a detailed analysis was ',m "de of taxable sales occurring within Petaluma. The analysis indicates that Petaluma's taxable transactions reached '$369 million in 2001, with the major sales cate,�gories of Other Retail .Stores ($84'.4 million), General Merchandise ($64 million) and ,Restaurants ($'.67 million)`. It should be noted' that these figures do not include "Automotive .Sales,. Servicing; Recreation Vehicles or Fueling." Similarly; it should also be noted that most Grocery sales, are non - taxable and thus not'recorded in the taxable sales data., ➢:The expenditure assessment indicates that Petaluma's PTA residents spent $369 million on the categories under study in 200;1: However, only $172 million (47 %) of these purchases were made in the City. 'By contrasti over $1,97 million (53 %) of PTA residents'' expenditure was ,made outside of Petaluma in 2001 On. almost -. all categories, the City is achieving a net sales outflow. • ➢ Restaurants represent the largest expenditure category included in this analysis, and this category demonstrates a substantial; sales outflow. The retail categories with the greatest retail sales leakage (and hence opportunity) include Home, Electronics, Home Furnishings, Cinema and Apparel. ➢ Specia ty Retail is the only category to maintain a strong sales retention within the City: 'This likely indicates the effect of" the influx of daytrippers and tourists shopping in Downtown Petalurrd's specialty stores rather''than an ,indication of' a complete specialty - retail program within the $100.000.000 s90,000.000. COMPARISON RETAIL SALES & LEAKAGE. FROM_ R4W,KRY__7R_ADEAR ]FA (PT $80.000,000 _ $7000,000' TOTAL Pb OMP POTENTIAL- $369 MILLION EST TOTAL SALES FROM PTA = $172 MILLION $60,000.000 ESTIMATED COMPARISONRETAILLEAKAGE )4ZMILLION — ■ Fst Sales 1— PrA se0.000,000 CAPTURE-RATE -47_% _ & '13 PrA Ex ndtlure Potential LEAKAGE 'RATE= ..S3 %, ■ Esll.ea k agerromPTA E.o,000xo TTTeee��� $30.000,000 - szo,000,000 11 $10 I 1 It 111 J 1� 1 1 a s Q ��G a� \\PQQ caG s �G cA ..b ,� A � b F e A r a. 0 c m 1c $250,000.000 - -- — - -- — - -- .__ COMPARISON RETAIL SALES FROM SECONDARY TRADE AREA (STA) $200.000.000 TOTAL STA COMP. porn x = $1.09 BILLION $150.000,000 LSALES`FROM STA ='S74 MILLION 20 RE.RATE = .Ti3 %. - 10 STA EK penditure Potential $100.000000 $50.000.000 $0' ■ Est.: Sa f rom S - $ F.. GoF caP P,9 G , $ a &a �Q�� � °a a9' a¢a ' - �. e s F oJ¢ �o Petaluma; Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy' Study, June 2004 Page 108 Or :. • vA 12.3 REGIONAL RETAIL COMPETITION 1.2.4 CURRENT INVENTORY & RETAIL VOIDS A key component of stemming the retail sales leakage is to determine the current level of competition for retail spending in the area. Petaluma's neighboring communities possess more developed retail environments, which can be summarized as follows: ➢ RohneH Park, north of Petaluma is most comparable in retail infrastructure. However, Rohnert Park has , a stronger representation of box /value retailers (e.g. Target, Outdoor Pro Shop, Office Depot, etc.) . The -value offering creates the destination appeal for shoppers. ➢ Santa Rosa possesses a variety of retail formats, effectively appealing to a broad market segment. Regional malls, power centers and box retail oriented strip centers dominate the retail landscape. The variety of retail formats accommodates a multitude of national chain retailers, and reflects a 'strong' ranking in all categories of the void analysis. 'The critical mass of branded /national retailers combined value prices generates the strong destination appeal for Santa Rosa. ➢ Novato /San Rafael is characterized with a developed offering, with the exception of the Electronics /Home Entertainment category. The majority of this retail is focused in the Vintage Oaks retail center fronting Highway 101. ➢ Corde Madera offers the only significant cluster of 'Lifestyle'- oriented retailers in a more pedestrian- oriented shopping environment. Specifically, Corde .Madera's 'Lifestyle' is higher profile and reflects middle -to -upper price points (e.g. Village at Corde Madera). This retail offering and overall center profile is more comparable to the upscale shopping centers in San Francisco. ➢ Although approximately 9% of retail sales made in the communities between Corde Madera and Santa Rosa occurred in Petaluma, per capita retail sales are lowest in Petaluma for these communities. In 2003, there are an estimated 1.14 million sq. ft. of retail functions in Petaluma today, of which about 775,00 sq. ft. are in shopping centers, while the remainder are in Downtown and Streetfront retail areas. ❑ Retail is sprawled across Petaluma with no distinct focal point. Ll Downtown Petaluma. is ,dominated by antiques & local specialty retail. ❑ Retail outside of Downtown 'is dominated by "Convenience" and "Strip" retail. ❑ Overall, Petaluma has a limited offering of National Brand retailers and restaurants. ❑ Many of the few national tenants found in Petaluma occupy spaces at the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets that are hard to see and difficult to get to. ❑ Petaluma does not have the variety of. retail formats that are evolving in other communities of similar size and demographic profile. 12.5 PETALUMA'S RETAIL CLUSTERS WITH DEVELOPMENT /REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL In order to identify the optimal strategy for stemming retail sales leakage from Petaluma, the City's component retail clusters were identified, including undeveloped areas that have potential for future commercial development. The entire retail infrastructure was analyzed simultaneously to determine the optimal function of each cluster that would provide the most appropriate retail offering at the site as well as contribute the greatest synergy to the overall city offering. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 109 The retail cluster sites include: • Downtown Petaluma West • Golden Eagle & Station RDA Site • Kenilworth/Fairgrounds Site • Petaluma Plazas • Washington Square. • DSL/Ranier Site • Petaluma Village Factory Outlets • Redwood Center An evaluation of "r.etail• suitability" and attractiveness of each site for development or redevelopment with new retail. was prepared. This evaluation considers 1.5 'individual retail site criteria in equal weighting, to consider site exposure, location, configuration and adjacencies. Highlights of this analysis suggest the following: • The Petaluma, 'Plazas (85 %) site ranked as the best overall site for retail potential followed by a tie between the Kenilworth Fairgrounds and Redwood Center (84 %) sites, which also scored high. • The Golden Eagle /Station RDA (60 %) and Washington Square (60 %) ranked in the middle of range. Downtown Petaluma West & the DSL /Ranier Site ranked in the lower half of the range. The weakest site was -the Petaluma Village Factory Outlets (47 %) site. From .a retail void analysis to identify retail functions and formats that are missing in Petaluma, the following retail opportunities are suggested for Petaluma- Large format general merchandise stores (e.g. Kohl's). ➢ Value apparel /footwear or discount department store (e.g. TJ Maxx, Old Navy, DSW Footwear, etc.). ➢ Large format house & home retailer (e.g. Container Store, Pier One, Linens `N Things, etc.). ➢ Large format electronics /home entertainment (e.g. Fry's Electronics, Circuit City, etc:). ➢ Lifestyle/branded retailers (e.g. J.Crew, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, American Eagle Outfitters, etc.). 12.6 DEMOGRAPHIC & EXPENDITURE PROFILE Having established the extent of the retail leakage from Petaluma, as well as the existing infrastructure and existing voids in the marketplace, the specific opportunity for the City to pursue was further refined through demographic and expenditure analysis. Specifically, the detailed demographic and spending habits of local residents were analyzed to determine the types of retail tenants. that would .garner the .greatest .appeal. When matching this "demand" information with the "supply" situation outlined in the .void analysis; an optimal strategy is clearly defined. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 110 r 0 Over 65,000 people reside within a 10- minute drive from Downtown Petaluma and nearly 387,000 people live within a half -hour drive of Petaluma. Petaluma's retail trade area is comprised of a Primary Trade Area (PTA) of over 68,000 people and an Secondary Trade Area (STA) of 170,000 people. The total trade area.is expected to grow from 238,000 to 262,000 people over the next decade, an average annual rate of 0.97 %, nearly identical to the national average. The PTA is anticipated to experience the fastest growth, averaging 1.53% per annum. The Petaluma retail market will benefit from an influx of over 11,1000 new residents anticipated over the'next decade. Petaluma's demographic profile is highlighted as follows: _Strong a.verage.household incomes of $75,000 or more. ➢ Well= educated .adult population. ➢ Larger than average representation of,35 to 64 years olds. Total trade area expenditure in 2003 is estimated. to be over $2.35 Billion and is expected to increase to $2.68 Billion by 2013. The PTA represents $659 million (28 %) of the entire Trade Area retail and leisure market, while the STA represents $1.69 Billion (72 %). Total expenditure is expected to grow at over 1.29 % per annum over the next decade. The fastest growing major retail category is Convenience, particularly Supermarket spending, which will grow at 1.57% per annum over the next decade. Comparison retail expenciture will' grow from $974 million to $1.1 Billion during this time period, while expenditure on Leisure is slated to grow from $340 million to $382 million from 2003 to 2013. $1,690 Petaluma's trade area is characterized as positive for retail development. Per capita expenditure on retail and leisure is well above average in the PTA and. STA, at 129% and 140% the national average. Within the PTA, the growing population base is anticipated to be bolstered by an influx of affluent Baby Boomers who are seeking the high quality of life offered in the Petaluma area. The STA is not slated to grow as quickly as the PTA. However, this market is both significantly larger than the PTA, and exhibits high per :capita' .expenditure, and thus represents a key market segment to entice Petaluma. Additional -sources of miscellaneous sales inflow include purchases made by the estimated 3.0,000 employees that work in Petaluma and the visitors whom ,pass through Sonoma County. Employees are estimated 'to generate $48 million per year of retail and food/beverage spending during their working hours, of which about half is from employees who do not live within Petaluma. Although, detailed figures are 'not` available just for visitors to Petaluma, visitors to overall Sonoma County and Wine Country generate approximately $667 million per year in retail and food /beverage spending: These spending segments are seen to be supplementary to the. base. of local resident trade area expenditure. Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page I 1 1 12.7 RETAIL TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES The vision for the evolution of Petaluma's retail offering should also draw from the current "state of the art" retail programming and design.. The following retail formats and n ed n ew generation retailer types are currently d riving North bn nters. ❑ Lifestyle & New Generation Retail Centers. 0 Main Street Retail & Downtowns. Hybrid Centers (Value; Lifestyle & Convenience). ❑ Polarized Retail Centers. ❑ Strategic Repositioning of Existing Centers. ❑ Entertainment Themed Retail Centers. Common elements of these retail formats include: ➢ Integrated by a variety of uses in one setting. Exploiting and celebrating the local, organic lifestyle. Establishing the community social gathering place. ➢ Anchored by restaurants and family entertainment. . Culture, arts and education play a prominent role. ➢ Specialty food and public markets are an attraction. ➢ Spaces are organized into a "Streetscape" setting. ➢ Retailing has a balance of local & national operators. ➢ New generation "Lifestyle Retailers" are prominent. ➢ Investment in architectural & landscape "features is :intense Currently, the majority of these contemporary retail formats are not available in Petaluma, suggesting an opportunity to weave them into - the retail fabric. • 12.8 PETALUMA OVERALL RETAIL OPPORTUNITY A market share / capture rate methodology was utilized to project the optimal retail mix for each of Petaluma's retail clusters. This methodology 'involves applying .realistic market capture rates against' the Primary and :Secondary Trade Area expenditure potential figures for each ,retail category in each individual retail cluster. The market share analysis indicates that with' 'the complementary and optimal retail positioning and mix recommended for each of Petaluma's retail clusters, there could be as much as 2.31 million sq. ft: of vibrant retail functions within Petaluma. If the current estimated retail inventory of 1.14 million sq. ft. is subtracted from. this total demand estimate, the analysis -there there is an opportunity to add up to 1.17 million sq. fit. of new functions. This retail space could be generating in the magnitude of $775 million per annum in retail sales for all of the Convenience, Comparison and Leisure categories. Of this ,amount, the sales and mix of potential retail capture for Petaluma'would be as follows: $279.6 million /yr for Convenience Retail $391:4 million /yr on Comparison Retail $1.04.1 million /yr on Leisure, Entertainment & Restaurants Considering the. current estimated Comparison & Leisure retail capture is approximately .$246 million /yr, the above figures suggest an almost $250' million lift in. Comparison Retail and Leisure sales; in other words a.doubling. This would result in an additional $2.5 million tax: revenues annually, as well as the generation of 3,084 total direct new jobs in the City.. The accompanying two Figures 'illustrate the recommended optimal positioning - and geographic location for each retail cluster in Petaluma. Petaluma 'Leakage &; Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 112 ,. O ` FIGURE 1 Z.1 PETALUMA - RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING P OSITIONING STRATE DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL* RETAIN AND ENHANCE FOOD AND BEVERAGE, SPECIALTY RETAIL AND_ ENTERTAINMENT MIXED- USE.COMMERCIAL` REDEVELOP WITH MIXED -USE STREET- ORIENTEDLIFESTYLE'. RETC AT GRAD&RESIDENTIAL OR OTHEI ABOVE,, TO FRAME AND BALANCE EAST SIDE OF RIVER AS °PART OF DOWNTOWN HIGHWAY /TOURIST COMMERCIAL* ASSEMBLE AND DEVELOP AE REGIONAL LARGER FORMAT RETAIL NODE TO INTRODUCE MISSING RETAILERS OF REGIC HIGHWAY /COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL' ENHANCE EXISTING PETALUMA PLAZA AND WASHINGTON SQUARE PROOPERTIES'WITH ADDITIONAL CRU, BABY BOX ANI RESTAURANTS AND INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL APPAREL RETAILER WITH ADJACENT RELATED CRU'S COMMUNITY COMMERCIAL - ENHANCE CONVENIENCE °;AND t SERVICES AND INCORPORATE HEALTH AND WELLNESS a nns? /Iaril * ZONING P • •ar - sue= LAND US INFILL/ ENHANCEMENT LOCAL AND INDEPENDENT RETAILERS REDEVELOPMENT MIX OF LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL "STREET - ORIENTED" RETAILERS 'IEW DEVELOPMENT ARGER FORMAT NATIONAL AND EGIONAL RETAILERS INTENSIFICATION/ REDEVELOPMENT JUNIOR DEPARTMENT STORE ANCHORED WITH A BYBRID OF "BABY BOX" RETAURANT AND A BLEND OF NATIONAL AND LOCAL CRU RETAILERS AND SERVICES ENHANCEMENT , AND PHARMACY ANCHORED WITH BLEND OF LOCAL AND NATIONAL SMALLER RETAILERS AND SERVICES Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June ZUU4 Page 113 FIGURE 12.2 Ccvaswtlanis s1 Petaluma Leakage & Sustainable Retail Strategy Study, June 2004 Page 1 14 ;Q a ; DISTRIBUTION OF RECOMMENDED RETAIL POSITIONING TYPES