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HomeMy WebLinkAbout5ALateDocument12ix Table of Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 1 1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations ...................... .................................................. 9 1.1. Models and Forecasts ............................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Radiation ................................................................................................................................. 12 1.3. Clouds ...................................... .............................................................................................. 16 1.4. Precipitation .................................................................................. .......................................... 22 2. ?2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing .............................................................................. 27 2.1. Clouds ..................................................................................................................................... 27 2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide ........................................ ............................................................................. 29 2.3. Diffuse Light ................................................................................................... ......................... 30 2.4. Iodocompounds ....................................................................................................................... 34 2.5. Nitrous Oxide ........................................................................................................................... 35 2.6. Methane ..................................................... ............................................................................ 37 2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide ................................................................................................. ..................... 45 2.8. Aerosols .................................................................................................................................. 48 3. Observations: Temperature Records ..................................................................................... 63 3.1. Paleoclimate Data ................................................................... ............................................... 63 3.2. Past 1,000 Years ..................................................................................................................... 66 3.3. Urban Heat Islands .................................................................................................................. 95 3.4. Fingerprints .................................... ....................................................................................... 106 3.5. Satellite Data ....................................................................................... ................................. 109 3.6. Arctic ..................................................................................................................................... 114 3.7. Antarctic ................................................................................................................................ 131 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, Precipitation, and Sea Level ......................................... 135 4.1. Glaciers ......................................................................................................... ...................... 135 4.2. Sea Ice .................................................................................................................................. 152 4.3. Precipitation Trends .............................................................................................................. 162 4.4. Streamflow ............................................................. .............................................................. 175 4.5. Sea-level Rise ................................................................................................................ ....... 184 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles .................................................................................... 207 5.1. Cosmic Rays ......................................... ................................................................................ 208 5.2. Irradiance .................................................................................................. ............................ 220 5.3. Temperature .......................................................................................................................... 233 5.4. Precipitation ........................................................................................................................... 258 5.5. Droughts ........................................... ................................................................................... 268 5.6. Floods ................................................................................................... ............................... 273 5.7. Monsoons .............................................................................................................................. 274 5.8. Streamflow ............................................................................................................................. 278 Climate Change Reconsidered x 6. Observations: Extreme Weather ........................................................................................... 281 6.1. Droughts .......................... .................................................................................................... 281 6.2. Floods .................................................................................. ................................................ 302 6.3. Tropical Cyclones ................................................................................................................. 309 6.4. ENSO .................................................................................................................................... 330 6.5. Precipitation Variability ......................................................................................................... 336 6.6. Storms ............................................................................. .................................................... 341 6.7. Snow .................................................................................................................................... 347 6.8. Storm Surges ........................................................................................................................ 351 6.9. Temperature Variability ...................... ................................................................................. 352 6.10. Wildfires ................................................................................................. ............................. 355 7. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment .............................................................. 361 7.1. Plant Productivity Responses ............................................................................................... 362 7.2. Water Use Efficiency ......................................................................... .................................. 409 7.3. Amelioration of Environmental Stresses .............................................................................. 414 7.4. Acclimation ........................................................................................................................... 480 7.5. Competition ...................................................... .................................................................... 487 7.6. Respiration ............................................................................................................. .............. 491 7.7. Carbon Sequestration............................................................................................................ 497 7.8. Other Benefits ...................... ................................................................................................ 517 7.9. Greening of the Earth ....................................................................... ................................... 551 8. Species Extinction .................................................................................................................. 579 8.1. Explaining Extinction ............................................................................................................. 579 8.2. Terrestrial Plants........................................ ........................................................................... 590 8.3. Coral Reefs ...................................................................................................... ..................... 596 8.4. Polar Bears ............................................................................................................................ 639 9. Human Health Effects ............................................................................................................ 663 9.1. Diseases ................................................................ .............................................................. 664 9.2. Nutrition ..................................................................................................................... .......... 676 9.3. Human Longevity ................................................................................................................... 691 9.4. Food vs. Nature ...................... .............................................................................................. 695 9.5. Biofuels ...................................................................................... .......................................... 701 APPENDIX 1: Acronyms ............................................................................................................ 709 APPENDIX 2: Plant Dry Weight Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment ........................... 713 APPENDIX 3: Plant Photosynthesis Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment .................... 727 APPENDIX 4: The Petition Project .............................................................................................. 739